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50, 75, 100?


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2022 Jun 13, 5:04am   36,863 views  283 comments

by Al_Sharpton_for_President   ➕follow (5)   💰tip   ignore  

This "relentlessly aggressive" stance could include raising interest rates by 0.75% on Wednesday, a move economists at Barclays said Friday is now their baseline expectation.

"Historically, the US central bank has avoided surprising markets – say, by going 75bp when it is not priced in," Barclays economists led by Jonathan Millar said in a note to clients published Friday.

"But next week, we feel, is likely to be an exception."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-puts-pressure-on-powell-what-to-know-this-week-162615319.html

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234   AD   2023 Sep 20, 4:31pm  

Booger says

Once again, the Fed does the wrong thing and leaves rates the same.


Next meetings are 31 October and December 12. I suspect they'll raise the rate at least one more time to 0.25% from 5.5% to 5.75%.

The rate at 5.5% is already at the highest its been in about 22 years. If CPI and PCE stay below 0.3% monthly and 3% annually then they may keep the rate constant.
235   GNL   2023 Sep 20, 6:16pm  

They said they won't raise as much in 2024 as they did in 2023. So, I assume it's only going to go higher.
236   Misc   2023 Sep 20, 7:53pm  

Based on the Fed's "Dot Plot", they are forecasting one more 1/4 point raise in 2023 then a 1/2 point decrease over 2024.

Meanwhile... the 10 year jumped 8 basis points so far. The Fed doesn't have a stellar forecasting record. In the currency markets the dollar is crushing everything.
238   AD   2023 Sep 21, 9:42pm  

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/interest-rates-staying-higher-for-longer-means-at-least-through-2026-for-the-fed-100035115.html

Interest rates staying 'higher for longer' means at least through 2026 for the Fed


So that means no recession before 2026

How long can the yield curve stay inverted ? Schwab has 1 month CD's at 5.5%

.
239   HeadSet   2023 Sep 22, 6:03am  

ad says

Schwab has 1 month CD's at 5.5%

Thanks!
240   Booger   2023 Nov 1, 1:35pm  

Rates remain the same. I'm OK with these current rates as long as they are never lowered.
241   zzyzzx   2023 Dec 13, 2:44pm  

Rates remain the same, again. I'm not convinced that they are going to raise them any more either, even though they should.
242   zzyzzx   2024 Jan 31, 11:45am  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-reserve-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged-tempers-expectations-on-rate-cuts-ahead-190255912.html

Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged, tempers expectations on rate cuts ahead

Rare freak occasion where the Federal Reserve does the right thing.
243   Bd6r   2024 Jan 31, 2:00pm  

My PBR stock did not get hammered so I am happy
244   zzyzzx   2024 Mar 1, 6:57am  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apollo-torsten-slok-says-fed-131511825.html

Apollo’s Torsten Slok Says Fed Will Not Cut Rates in 2024

Apollo Management Chief Economist Torsten Slok said that a re-accelerating US economy, coupled with a rise in underlying inflation, will prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates in 2024.
246   zzyzzx   2024 Mar 5, 12:06pm  

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/01/investing/the-fed-may-not-cut-rates-this-year/index.html

The US economy is so strong that there might not be any rate cuts in 2024
247   zzyzzx   2024 Mar 19, 5:16am  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/boj-dovish-tone-first-rate-044641163.html

Japan Ends Era of Negative Rates With Few Clues on Further Hikes
248   GNL   2024 Mar 19, 5:18am  

zzyzzx says

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/01/investing/the-fed-may-not-cut-rates-this-year/index.html

The US economy is so strong that there might not be any rate cuts in 2024

How come it doesn't feel strong?
249   zzyzzx   2024 Mar 19, 5:20am  

GNL says

How come it doesn't feel strong?

Because it isn't. It's the news media covering for Biden.
250   HeadSet   2024 Mar 19, 12:07pm  

GNL says

zzyzzx says


https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/01/investing/the-fed-may-not-cut-rates-this-year/index.html

The US economy is so strong that there might not be any rate cuts in 2024

How come it doesn't feel strong?

"Strong economy" is Donkey speak for "high inflation" when Biden is in power. Saying "We cannot lower rates when inflation is still high" sounds bad.
251   zzyzzx   2024 Mar 20, 9:22am  

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/federal-reserve-meeting-rate-cut-march-2024/

The Fed is meeting this week. Here's what experts are saying about the odds of a rate cut.

With the central bank meeting Wednesday, economists and consumers alike have one question on their minds: When will the central bank start cutting rates?

The answer: Almost certainly not this month, and probably not at its next meeting, according to Wall Street forecasters.
252   Blue   2024 Mar 20, 9:45am  

zzyzzx says

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/01/investing/the-fed-may-not-cut-rates-this-year/index.html

The US economy is so strong that there might not be any rate cuts in 2024

Lot of Tech companies are giving warnings about slowing growth for the next 3 quarters. Perhaps other sectors might be doing ok!
253   AD   2024 Mar 20, 10:23am  

.

Googl is at 147 and all time high was 148 in November 2021.

Likely 150 to 155 is the ceiling price in 2024 for Googl if the economy does not accelerate any more, unless Googl does more cost cutting.

.
254   Misc   2024 Mar 20, 11:23am  

Annnnnnnnnnnnnnd the rate stays the same as forecasted. Still looking at (3) 25 basis point cuts in 2024, but looking at only (3) cuts in 2025 from a previous estimated (4).

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-reserve-holds-interest-rates-steady-maintains-forecast-for-3-rate-cuts-in-2024-180231430.html
257   zzyzzx   2024 Apr 3, 10:20am  

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/03/atlanta-fed-president-bostic-sees-only-one-rate-cut-this-year-occurring-in-the-fourth-quarter.html

Atlanta Fed President Bostic sees only one rate cut this year, occurring in the fourth quarter
258   zzyzzx   2024 Apr 4, 8:38am  

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/03/feds-powell-emphasizes-need-for-more-evidence-that-inflation-is-easing-before-cutting-rates.html

Fed’s Powell emphasizes need for more evidence that inflation is easing before cutting rates
259   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2024 Apr 4, 8:44am  

zzyzzx says

Fed’s Powell emphasizes need for more evidence that inflation is easing before cutting rates

How about deflation to get prices back to where they were three years ago?
260   AD   2024 Apr 4, 12:05pm  

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

How about deflation to get prices back to where they were three years ago?


never going to happen as the Federal Reserve will not sit by idly and let prices drop

if you are lucky, then you may observe income rise at a slightly greater rate than guvmint-reported inflation
261   GNL   2024 Apr 4, 2:48pm  

AD says

if you are lucky, then you may observe income rise at a slightly greater rate than guvmint-reported inflation

That ain't gonna happen either. Not on a large scale anyway.
262   zzyzzx   2024 Apr 9, 8:47am  

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/04/08/jamie-dimon-head-of-us-largest-bank-warns-of-8-interest-rates-along-with-recession/

Jamie Dimon—Head Of U.S.’ Largest Bank—Warns Of 8% Interest Rates Along With Recession

A chilly scenario for the U.S. economy, in which interest rates climb as high as 8% as the effects of the unprecedented monetary policy taken to combat inflation take hold, is still very much on the table, according to JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon.

The odds of a goldilocks soft landing outcome for the economy are “a lot lower” than the consensus of a 70% to 80% likelihood, Dimon outlined in his annual letter to JPMorgan shareholders Monday.

Coupled with Dimon’s concerns about the potential for “stagflation,” a recession characterized by lingering high inflation, he warned interest rates could soar to “8% or even more,” a far cry from the already 22-year high rates of over 5% and going against conventional wisdom of a looming decline in rates (U.S. interest rates have not been 8% or higher since 1990).

Dimon explained there are several “persistent inflationary pressures” which could keep price increases sticky, including the rise in military conflict globally and the lingering effects of aggressive policy from central banks worldwide coming out of the pandemic.

The billionaire Dimon also warned about the potential for carnage for both equity and debt investors should a higher-rate scenario play out, noting stock valuations are already at their “high end” and credit conditions are “extremely tight.”

Dimon’s warnings come as investor sentiment looks rosy—major stock indexes sit at record highs as the market eagerly awaits lower interest rates. JPMorgan is by far the largest American bank by assets and market value, holding roughly $2.7 trillion in domestic assets by the end of last year. Dimon is worth about $2.2 billion, according to Forbes’ latest estimates, owing most of his fortune to his stake in his bank. JPMorgan grew its already massive book by 6% last year thanks in part to its May 2023 acquisition of failed regional bank First Republic, a takeover Dimon characterized Monday as “something that we would have done just for ourselves” but rather a decision to stabilize the U.S. banking system writ large.
265   HeadSet   2024 Apr 9, 3:47pm  

zzyzzx says

Jamie Dimon—Head Of U.S.’ Largest Bank—Warns Of 8% Interest Rates

Sounds about right.
267   zzyzzx   2024 Apr 15, 11:44am  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-hiking-rates-6-5-164050747.html

Fed Hiking Rates to 6.5% Is ‘Real Risk’ for UBS Strategists
268   AmericanKulak   2024 Apr 15, 11:49am  

No rate cuts... until maybe next year ;)
269   HeadSet   2024 Apr 15, 1:00pm  

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-hiking-rates-6-5-164050747.html

Fed Hiking Rates to 6.5% Is ‘Real Risk’ for UBS Strategists

(Bloomberg) -- The combination of strong US growth and sticky inflation is raising the odds the Federal Reserve hikes rather than cuts interest rates, bringing borrowing costs to as high as 6.5% next year, according to UBS Group AG strategists.

Good. It is pay now or fuel hyperinflation later.
271   zzyzzx   2024 Apr 17, 8:16am  

https://fortune.com/2024/04/16/fed-chair-jerome-powell-no-rate-cuts-this-year-markets/

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has an ‘unfriendly’ message for markets: You might not be getting any rate cuts this year
272   zzyzzx   2024 Apr 17, 8:25am  

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-16/booming-us-economy-inspires-radical-theory-on-wall-street

What If Fed Rate Hikes Are Actually Sparking US Economic Boom?

As the US economy hums along month after month, minting hundreds of thousands of new jobs and confounding experts who had warned of an imminent downturn, some on Wall Street are starting to entertain a fringe economic theory.

What if, they ask, all those interest-rate hikes the past two years are actually boosting the economy? In other words, maybe the economy isn’t booming despite higher rates but rather because of them.

It’s an idea so radical that in mainstream academic and financial circles, it borders on heresy — the sort of thing that in the past only Turkey’s populist president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, or the most zealous disciples of Modern Monetary Theory would dare utter publicly.

But the new converts — along with a handful who confess to being at least curious about the idea — say the economic evidence is becoming impossible to ignore. By some key gauges — GDP, unemployment, corporate profits — the expansion now is as strong or even stronger than it was when the Federal Reserve first began lifting rates.
273   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2024 Apr 17, 8:35am  

Yep. I tell panhandlers now to bugger off and invest in Treasuries.

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