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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   490,923 views  4,889 comments

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

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4808   just_passing_through   2024 Apr 28, 10:15am  

WookieMan says

Hell even an LLC if you're wealthy enough to take the tax bath while you own it.


Tax bath? I know CA fines Californian's $800/year (it probably has gone up) for each LLC they own but otherwise isn't it designed to lower taxes?
4809   Patrick   2024 Apr 28, 7:58pm  

https://sfstandard.com/2024/04/27/why-owning-a-home-in-san-francisco-has-never-cost-more/


Home prices in San Francisco may have settled down from the record highs set during the pandemic, but the hidden costs associated with homeownership are skyrocketing.

An analysis from Redfin found that the salary necessary to afford a median-priced home in the Bay Area is $404,332 a year, a nearly 25% increase from the year before. A scan through Zillow confirms that math—the average price for a single-family home remains stubbornly well over $1 million.

Paying for the upfront price of a home is still a buyer’s primary concern. But now, because of factors mostly outside of homeowners’ control, auxiliary costs—like utilities, property taxes, home insurance and maintenance work—are threatening to overtake already hefty monthly mortgage payments.

It’s all adding up to a more complex calculation for those looking to dip their toe in the market, with many first-time buyers already at their limits because of high interest rates. What normally would be a dream come true is quickly becoming a rude awakening for some.

Last year, home ownership affordability in the U.S. plunged to its lowest level since 1984, according to research from financial markets company ICE Mortgage Technology. ...

“The moment you cross the Bay Bridge, the costs double,” Ajdari said, adding that he’s seen workers disperse around the region since the pandemic. Most of the help he brings on tends to commute from the East Bay or Central Valley. ...

For a standard bathroom remodel these days, Ajdari has been quoting his clients at least $30,000 for the cost of labor alone. Any additional electrical work or customizations means extra fees.

The same job would cost half the price in most other states, Ajdari said. In Georgia, hiring a tile setter ran him approximately $3-$5 per square foot. In San Francisco, that number can go anywhere from $18-$30.
4810   UkraineIsTotallyFucked   2024 Apr 29, 9:13am  

WookieMan says

A trust. Hell even an LLC if you're wealthy enough to take the tax bath while you own it. There are plenty of ways to transfer property to multiple kids and they split the proceeds or come to an agreement where whoever takes ownership pays rent to their siblings or get less cash inheritance. There are so many ways that the house doesn't hit the market. I guess maybe people are idiots I suppose?


It was in a trust. Stop talking like you know what is best for other people.
4811   UkraineIsTotallyFucked   2024 Apr 29, 9:14am  

just_passing_through says


Tax bath? I know CA fines Californian's $800/year (it probably has gone up) for each LLC they own but otherwise isn't it designed to lower taxes?


You refer to the LLC's registration fees to the Dept of Corporations?
4812   HeadSet   2024 Apr 29, 1:55pm  

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

Tax bath? I know CA fines Californian's $800/year (it probably has gone up) for each LLC they own but otherwise isn't it designed to lower taxes?

Around here, either an LLC or an S corp is used to stop double taxation while still allowing the protection of being a corporation (shield the shareholder from lawsuits or financial risk other than shares owned). A regular C corp is taxed on the profits and then the shareholders are taxed on dividends, hence double taxation. I never heard of an LLC being used to pass on an inheritance, but since an LLC requires no governance or shareholder restrictions (except limited to 100 shareholders) maybe that works. Still, I do not see how an LLC with a Chairperson doling out the inheritance is better than an executor with a will or trust.
4813   just_passing_through   2024 Apr 29, 4:54pm  

HeadSet says

Around here


Right, I forgot about the lawsuit shields, silly me, that's a big part of the reasoning I was considering putting each of 3 houses in an LLC and then putting those under an S-corp in ... someplace I saw a guy yacking about in a pootube vidya a few years back. I think he was recommending Wyoming.

At any rate, I decided against because: my next post
4814   just_passing_through   2024 Apr 29, 4:58pm  

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

You refer to the LLC's registration fees to the Dept of Corporations?


@UkraineIsTotallyFucked, not exactly:

"Every LLC that is doing business or organized in California must pay an annual tax of $800. This yearly tax will be due, even if you are not conducting business"

https://www.ftb.ca.gov/file/business/types/limited%20liability%20company/index.html

So that would be $2400 for 3 houses which is about 1/2 the profit of one of them. Can you say, "Unfriendly business climate"?

Doh!

" Also, all LLCs and S Corps must pay a minimum franchise tax of $800 annually" - add in another $800 to make it $3200/year. Fuck that. I'm out.
4815   just_passing_through   2024 Apr 29, 4:59pm  

I guess another bonus for moving is that not only can I do this now without getting raped, California isn't taxing my Texas rentals (rental income) anymore, la la la la laaa la!

Normally when it comes up I just tell people I'm saving about 25K in regular CA income taxes (day job in biotech) but it's actually more.

Nor my vacation rental in Maui but Maui and Hawaii make up for that - taxes keep rocketing up, year after year.
4816   HeadSet   2024 Apr 29, 5:52pm  

just_passing_through says

I was considering putting each of 3 houses in an LLC and then putting those under an S-corp

I can see maybe the LLC but an S corp, no way. Unlike an LLC an S corp requires stuff like setting up a board (President, Secretary, Treasurer) along with detailed tax hoops and reporting requirements.
4817   GNL   2024 Apr 29, 7:19pm  

just_passing_through says

I guess another bonus for moving is that not only can I do this now without getting raped, California isn't taxing my Texas rentals (rental income) anymore, la la la la laaa la!

Normally when it comes up I just tell people I'm saving about 25K in regular CA income taxes (day job in biotech) but it's actually more.

Nor my vacation rental in Maui but Maui and Hawaii make up for that - taxes keep rocketing up, year after year.

Eventually this will happen everywhere. More poor people, more taxes are needed to satiate them. Book it.
4818   just_passing_through   2024 Apr 30, 6:12am  

HeadSet says

I can see maybe the LLC but an S corp, no way. Unlike an LLC an S corp requires stuff like setting up a board (President, Secretary, Treasurer) along with detailed tax hoops and reporting requirements.


Interesting... It's been a while but perhaps that (basically advert) video I saw had a back end plan for me to pay them to do that. I wouldn't do it without learning all about it first. I'd imagine if you know what you're doing you yourself could be all 3 of those people etc., though.
4819   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2024 Apr 30, 6:18am  

HeadSet says


I can see maybe the LLC but an S corp, no way.

Used to be Shoobx before Fidelity acquired it.

https://www.fidelityprivateshares.com/
4820   HeadSet   2024 Apr 30, 2:03pm  

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

HeadSet says



I can see maybe the LLC but an S corp, no way.

Used to be Shoobx before Fidelity acquired it.

https://www.fidelityprivateshares.com/

That is for a C Corp, an even worse a mechanism to pass real estate to kids. Impressive product, though.
4823   Ceffer   2024 May 3, 10:13pm  

Strange. All the homes in my hood are flying off the lot at asking and above, even the very expensive ones. Flight from urban to suburban?
zzyzzx says




4827   FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden   2024 May 8, 7:20am  

it’s expensive even here in red state. most people who buy are coming with equity from their big city sale.
4828   B.A.C.A.H.   2024 May 8, 7:47am  

Ceffer says

Strange. All the homes in my hood are flying off the lot at asking and above

Here also, in San Jose.

One in my neighborhood had a "sold" sign one week after the "for sale" sign was put up.

According to Zillow these places have about a 100% ownership premium over renting.

There seems to be an air of desperation to secure a purchased residence around here for the privilege to pay double what it'd cost to rent, with a locked in super high property tax bill. Reminds me of patrick.net folks surferex back in the day, and BayArea nowadays.
4829   GNL   2024 May 8, 9:36am  

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/80-of-americans-think-its-a-bad-time-to-buy-a-house-190058819.html

80% of Americans think it's a bad time to buy a house

Unless you are to purchase now and then rates go down by a lot in the next few years, that is.
4830   GNL   2024 May 8, 9:38am  

B.A.C.A.H. says

Ceffer says


Strange. All the homes in my hood are flying off the lot at asking and above

Here also, in San Jose.

One in my neighborhood had a "sold" sign one week after the "for sale" sign was put up.

According to Zillow these places have about a 100% ownership premium over renting.

There seems to be an air of desperation to secure a purchased residence around here for the privilege to pay double what it'd cost to rent, with a locked in super high property tax bill. Reminds me of patrick.net folks surferex back in the day, and BayArea nowadays.

I think this will continue. More and more people will have to settle as renters for life and owners will see massive tax increases over ownership lifetime.
4831   Blue   2024 May 8, 11:02am  

GNL says


owners will see massive tax increases over ownership lifetime.


1978 Prop 13 Ponzi scheme limits the tax as it ties in with purchase price and forces owners to lock in the property to make supply thin and skyrocketing RE prices for people with deep pockets. In recent weeks, I heard from a ex-coworker who he knows 2 guys bought shacks, first one worth 4mil, the other guy, his neighbor for few mils as an upgrade and moves out from his current south SJ home! Both work for Nvidia. For some of these guys based on stock run up, buying any house is just a peanut as their options worth double digits mls (I think, I know few!)
4832   UkraineIsTotallyFucked   2024 May 8, 11:08am  

B.A.C.A.H. says

Here also, in San Jose.

One in my neighborhood had a "sold" sign one week after the "for sale" sign was put up.

According to Zillow these places have about a 100% ownership premium over renting.

There seems to be an air of desperation to secure a purchased residence around here for the privilege to pay double what it'd cost to rent, with a locked in super high property tax bill. Reminds me of patrick.net folks surferex back in the day, and BayArea nowadays.


Corporate purchases?
4833   Ceffer   2024 May 8, 11:28am  

Or investors trying to tie up hard assets in real estate before the real currency plunge.
4834   UkraineIsTotallyFucked   2024 May 9, 8:50am  

Big Short 2.0

$1 trillion to $2 trillion to be injected into housing by August via GSE Home Equity financing. Election Year!

Inflationary? Not until after the election, of course.

Also, only about 15% of home loans are originated by private lenders today. If Freddie & Fannie were shut down today, the entire mortgage industry would disappear.

https://youtu.be/14l35U0oar0?si=PmkPRY5E8AwH3k--
4835   GNL   2024 May 9, 9:50am  

How will these trillions be injected into housing?
4836   richwicks   2024 May 9, 9:55am  

GNL says

How will these trillions be injected into housing?

The fed prints money, they loan this .oney at huge discounts to banks, blackrock is a bank, they will borrow this money, they will by the homes.

This is why deficits matter. The more our government prints the more enslaved our nation is
4837   GNL   2024 May 9, 10:52am  

richwicks says

GNL says


How will these trillions be injected into housing?

The fed prints money, they loan this .oney at huge discounts to banks, blackrock is a bank, they will borrow this money, they will by the homes.

This is why deficits matter. The more our government prints the more enslaved our nation is

I get the printing part but, you’re saying that Blackrock will be given the money to purchase 1-2 trillion dollars worth of homes?

As I understand it, Freddiemac is being given the go ahead to finance 2nd mortgages and home equity loans as a way to get people to spend their equity.
4838   richwicks   2024 May 9, 11:02am  

GNL says

I get the printing part but, you’re saying that Blackrock will be given the money to purchase 1-2 trillion dollars worth of homes?

I'm saying that the Uas going into debt is being offset by purpose shoving up home prices. This will make us a nation of slaves.
4839   HeadSet   2024 May 9, 11:47am  

GNL says

As I understand it, Freddiemac is being given the go ahead to finance 2nd mortgages and home equity loans as a way to get people to spend their equity.

Where does Freddiemac get the funds to do that?
4840   UkraineIsTotallyFucked   2024 May 9, 12:06pm  

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

GSE Home Equity financing.


What part of that did you all miss?
4841   HeadSet   2024 May 9, 12:20pm  

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

$1 trillion to $2 trillion to be injected into housing by August via GSE Home Equity financing

I missed the part where Freddiemac gets the money to buy mortgages. You cannot do "GSE Home Equity financing" unless you have the money on hand to pay out.
4842   GNL   2024 May 9, 12:28pm  

HeadSet says

GNL says


As I understand it, Freddiemac is being given the go ahead to finance 2nd mortgages and home equity loans as a way to get people to spend their equity.

Where does Freddiemac get the funds to do that?

FJB?
4843   UkraineIsTotallyFucked   2024 May 9, 5:15pm  

HeadSet says

You cannot do "GSE Home Equity financing" unless you have the money on hand to pay out.


They have it. Or can easily raise it.
4844   HeadSet   2024 May 9, 6:53pm  

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

Or can easily raise it.

Raise it how?
4845   UkraineIsTotallyFucked   2024 May 10, 7:10pm  

HeadSet says

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says


Or can easily raise it.

Raise it how?


How do they normally raise funding? They have collectively, ~$5 trillion in assets on their books already. Where did they raise the funding to get to that?

They are GSEs.
4846   AmericanKulak   2024 May 10, 8:07pm  

There's a huge reset coming to the Car Market as well.

It illustrates why there's no Fed Money Printing their way out of this.

Should have saved the video, but there's a used car dealer who buys at auction, showing a 2021 Tundra with 73k miles going for $72k ,,, "That's almost a dollar a mile!"

There are numerous examples of used cars (30k mi+) going for about as much as the new ones, but once you factor in there are no interest rate teasers for the used cars but there are dealer incentives and special rates for the new ones, it's MORE expensive to buy the used car with the 30k miles than the new model.

The cheapest at the auction is one of those thumbdrive sized cars with 2 seats and 40k miles, going for $9,900.

Same shit in the car market as in the used house market. The new construction is often cheaper than the used due to incentives homeloaners can't offer buyers but the builders/manufacturers can.

The car market is rapidly deteriorating and for the first time, $1000/month payments are now common. Problem is, people soon realize they can't afford that and are returning the vehicles... and the dealership can't move them since the trade-ins and the unsold are already a problem with not moving.

The correction is coming.
4847   gabbar   2024 May 11, 12:44am  

AmericanKulak says

Problem is, people soon realize they can't afford that and are returning the vehicles...

Are cars returnable to dealership? How does one do this, just drop off the car at the dealership where the buyer purchased it from?

You are correct. Car market should either normalize or possibly go down in the next 3 to 6 months. I am actively in the market for a new or used vehicle.

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