patrick.net

Ok, this was the correlation I was looking for, in terms of weekly candlesticks. Realize, the longer the time frame, the better the predictive ability.

1) The Russell finally closes a week outside of the long running price box


2) The EURO is testing a decade long low.



3) The Pound Sterling is just about to enter that same price box of the decade's low.




So the Bitcoin trade is over. I'm selling XBTF at 39 with a take profit of $4 per share, totaling 1200 shares. or $4.8K.

This will be re-visited at a latter time when the market structure is in a better place.

Congrats Rin. What are you buying now?

PeopleUnited says

Congrats Rin. What are you buying now?

I think at this time, it's all defensive plays.

One which looks promising is to buy shares of Carl Icahn Enterprises, IEP, which gets one a 15+% dividend check per year. In other words, with zero work, 1000 shares at $52 per share renders $8 per share or $8000 for any given year. And the price range is pretty stagnant.

Now, given the fact that Icahn could die or that one of his deals completely collapses (& he's forced to cut the dividend, along with the stock sliding downward), it's not a bad idea to insure against this by ordering leap put options at a strike price circa $45 where the put option price is close to a single dividend check loss for the option.

Then, if the stock goes to hell, the cap losses are offset by the option. So thus, you're in effect, paying one business quarter's dividend check (give or take) for insurance and get to bank the difference, some 11% per annum, with nearly zero risk of losing your capital.

Of course they could go out of business but I think the stock will tank first, so the exit is in place.

DooDahMan says

To manage these risks, if the price of Bitcoin drops by a large margin, the borrower might be required to increase the collateral submitted to the bank. Failure to do this risks the loan being liquidated.

I think the risk of intermittent margin calls may make this not the best way to originate loans for the borrower.

If anything, the bank should assume a certain percent of risk, if the collateral is a crypto currency. And then, to hedge against that risk factor, manage an array of futures contracts via the trading side of the house.

Article is about stocks but I get the point sort of. There is a fuck ton of leverage via margin in crypto. The thing is those volatility drops pretty much clear it all out each time. Don't be stupid and trade crypto on margin.

PeopleUnited says

Getting back to the topic of trading, bear flag possible here.

Exactly thats what I see as well, and DXY looks like it can fly... USD is getting the money flow atm. Once it flips we should
be entering the early stages of a commodities super cycle which crypto will be treated nearly the same. Have to wait and see how
things roll agriculture has already enter that door. The inflation we are seeing is referred to as cost push I believe. Once DXY hits critical
mass and flips then things will likely become way more expensive then most really anticipate. Just think your USD has a index value of
103.485 and possibly add another 9 pts 112.300 maybe more that is strength not weakness like so many seem to think the case is, but it's
not weak by the #s..

Patrick, thats exactly the reason why Crypto is so powerful. The government cant touch it.

https://finbold.com/canadian-police-block-over-30-crypto-wallets-associated-with-the-freedom-convoy-truckers/?source=patrick.net

"However, while the authorities are keen to seize any funds associated with the Freedom Convoy, it is likely that this digital currency is outside the grasp of the government of Canada, assuming the funds are housed outside of an authorized Canadian cryptocurrency exchange."

The headline you posted can obviously be misleading because "crackdown" simply means the government can only force REGULATED EXCHANGES IN CANADA to do what the government wants. You can still send crypto to those addresses. You simply would have to do it via exchange or app thats not controlled by the canadian government.

Governments can freeze bank accounts. They cant freeze crypto addresses. Thats the power of crypto!

How do you get cash out of Bitcoin then?

Patrick says

How do you get cash out of Bitcoin then?

If you have a frozen bank account you cant transact against it
If you have a bitcoin address that is flagged by your local exchanges due to government targeting your address, then you have these options:

Its likely that the government will be tracking any movements on those wallet addresses. So simply moving the crypto from the flagged addresses to new addresses and from there to your local regulated exchanges wont work because they can easily track this.

What you could do is move the crypto to a non-regulated exchange. from there you wont be able to cash out in your country because non-regulated exchanges cannot do crypto to local currency trades. However, you can trade the crypto against a privacy coin on that non-regulated exchange. The privacy coin is much harder to track or even impossible. You can then trade back to say ETH or whatever and move that from a non-flagged address to your regulated exchange.

Or you could buy large ticket items from a privat seller. Buy a car with bitcoin, etc. Question is if the seller accepts that. He might get in trouble if he cashes out and they find out the BTC originated from a flagged address.

Or open up an exchange overseas and cash out to their local currency. I doubt certain countries care about the Canadian Government flagging your address.

I feel the pain of the guys who loaded up on BTC at $69,000.
"Why did it go down?"
Who knows?
"Why did it go up?"
Nobody knows.
"What exactly is it?"
"You're too lazy to learn about it!"

Rin says

Keeping an eye on the Rus2K "holding its ground", as a barometer for the general market meltdown (or not), it's time for bitcoin to either go big or go home.

As predicted, the Rus2K broke down & bitcoin went home.

I got +$4/share, getting out in the week between the Rus price breakdown and bitcoin's.

Cuban is wrong on multiple levels.

I haven't seen anyone post about Terra yet. The loss of the peg is a pretty big deal and affected the other cryptos.

@DooDahMan
Do you have to post all of every fuxxking article you glance at? Please learn to paraphrase a bit of the article, share "your own thoughts if you actually have any" and then share the link like 99.9% of the other Patnet'rs do.