patrick.net

wookiee it has. it stopped housing inflation here in Idaho.

WookieMan says

Has raising rates worked for anything? Prices are still higher. We have low unemployment. Inflation is still a bitch. What have higher interest rates actually done? Serious question.

They haven't raised the rates high enough and / or long enough. We have historically average interest rates. The rates aren't high unless they get much higher than they are now. Plus you have to figure that the official inflation rate is maybe only half the real inflation rate, and one needs interest rates higher than the actual inflation rate for it to work, and this hasn't been done yet.

WookieMan says

Has raising rates worked for anything? Prices are still higher. We have low unemployment. Inflation is still a bitch. What have higher interest rates actually done? Serious question.

Then they will raise rates until they cause a recession, like Volker did. At one point prime was 21%, I think

Reagan had an economics degree and knew it had to be done, so he agreed to it. The 1981 - 82 recession was quite harsh but short lived.

Today, various fundamentals - some of which you covered - makes it difficult for that to work this time. And they overlap. They would have to jack prime to 30% or more to crash the economy like they did in '81. But the result will not necessarily be the same. Labor shortages won't go away for a decade at least. Supply chain issues, about 3 - 5 more years but will be fixed.

Housing: at some point ppl who need to sell houses will have to sell them. .or lose them.

PumpingRedheads says

Then they will raise rates until they cause a recession, like Volker did. At one point prime was 21%, I think

In 1981-82, we didn't have 100%+ of GDP in Debt or $35T in Debt.

PumpingRedheads says

hey would have to jack prime to 30% or more to crash the economy like they did in '81. But the result will not necessarily be the same. Labor shortages won't go away for a decade at least. Supply chain issues, about 3 - 5 more years but will be fixed.

Lets see how CPI and PCE fare. We could have +3% annual growth with only annual inflation less than 3%.

No need to raise the Fed Funds rate if inflation continues to trend lower relative to last 2 years.

.

PumpingRedheads says

Housing: at some point ppl who need to sell houses will have to sell them. .or lose them.

https://patrick.net/post/1344883/2022-04-30-housing-prices-peak-2?start=3679#comment-2001017

See above link. Housing already well below 20% of peak prices set in early 2022.

And rents are holding steady at 2022 rates ($2100 to $2200) for the same type of luxurious townhome within 2 miles of the best beach in the world.

The above link is like feeding red meat to a lion for the Logan M's at HousingWire and Wolfman's at WolfStreet.

Higher rates are finally having an affect, and notice the S&P 500 has barely gained about 5% (in inflation adjusted terms) since February 2020 ?

/

The Economist for Realtors.

Talking about you, Yun.

Is lying common practice in negotiations?

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/17oa29o/is_lying_common_practice_in_negotiations/

I received an offer on my home after the first round of open houses that was over asking with a waived inspection & solid financing. It was the only offer I received.

My agent wanted to lie to the folks who made an offer and tell them we received multiple offers and to please submit best and final. I rejected that strategy & my agent insisted that it was common practice at his realty group.

I feel comfortable in my decision to not go through with that plan but was wondering if that strategy really is common place. It feels slimy to me.

Best response:
I was trying to buy a few years ago and had 2 different selling agents do this to me. I knew they were full of shit and didnt have other offers. Told my agent to tell them, congrats and the other ppl will love the house. Both agents begged my agent for another offer about a week later. Too late, I was pissed. Both homes sold for less than my original offer.

Delusional realtor:
https://www.reddit.com/r/realtors/comments/17vwn3q/paid_posters_on_reddit_against_realtors/

Paid Posters On Reddit Against Realtors

So I’ve been on Reddit about 90 days and I was initially baffled on how much negativity there was towards realtors and the work they put in. Then I started noticing a trend. Similar posts from different ID’s being posted all over. Deletes on comments that failed to sway opinion. People posting 1/2 stories that will sway public opinion against agents. My take..

There is an all out attack on realtors right now and it’s similar to the vaccine push that was happening during that chaos. Most of those people were paid by govt to post on social media, as we later found out in some good journalism articles. Seems they have moved their attention to NAR and Realtors these days and the NAR and Realtors aren’t ready for it. Someone is going after long standing industries and it seems govt or some heavy $$ is behind it. Thoughts??

I know a real estate agent well. Her quote: "I don't do anything, I turn on the lights and turn them off".
Another quote from a real estate agent: "I didn't invent the system, so don't blame me for it. It is what it is"

As I understand it, a seller/buyer has 3 options...1. Sell/buy without a Realtor 2. Sell/buy with a Realtor or 3. Sell/buy with a real estate agent. A Realtor is a real estate agent but a real estate agent IS NOT ALWAYS a Realtor.

There needs to be more competition between those 3 options.

gabbar says

I would go to the girl in the middle if I wanted to get any work done.

The other two look like they could do the job.

zzyzzx says

one needs interest rates higher than the actual inflation rate for it to work

Fiat money eventually fails.

Like I have said before, this system can't possibly last more than a couple hundred more years.

https://www.realestatenews.com/2023/12/11/nar-membership-falls-by-nearly-6-000-in-november

NAR membership falls by nearly 6,000 in November

The nation's largest trade organization is headed for its first yearly drop in over a decade.

zzyzzx says

https://www.realestatenews.com/2023/12/11/nar-membership-falls-by-nearly-6-000-in-november

NAR membership falls by nearly 6,000 in November

The nation's largest trade organization is headed for its first yearly drop in over a decade.

No shit. They fleece their members. Sell their info to the highest bidder. When i was in the industry the average broker made about $28k maybe up to $35k. Not median. So that means the top producers brought the average up big time for the house wife's and mimbos by a lot. That also doesn't account for fees and expenses IF they got a listing.

It's 1-2 deals a year for most. I paid $2k/yr to be a "member" of that shit. Mine fortunately was paid for since I didn't do sales, but needed my license and the boss paid it to make his life easier having a licensed broker run the show.

The numbers will keep dropping too. There are no houses for sale and way too many brokers still thinking they'll be rich. Areas in decline (cities) you won't be able to sell the listing. A lot of brokers will be quitting. You're better off managing a McDonalds for 80% of the brokers out there.

One of my broker clients (I'm not sure why some people call Realtors brokers) is going to kick off the new year with a new business model (he said it is new. I'm not convinced it is though). He will be offering service fees instead of a listing fee. There will be 3 different tiers. I think he said $2,500, $6,000 and $10,000 to be paid upfront. Each tier comes with better/more service(s). He will get paid whether the listing sells or not. I assume this is in response to the market he is witnessing. What, exactly, it means, I do not know.

https://babylonbee.com/news/its-a-great-time-to-buy-a-house-says-realtor-who-gets-paid-if-you-buy-a-house

'It's A Great Time To Buy A House,' Says Realtor Who Gets Paid If You Buy A House

GNL says

There will be 3 different tiers. I think he said $2,500, $6,000 and $10,000 to be paid upfront

It was something like $450 just to get it on the MLS for me, and that was all I needed.

GNL says

He will be offering service fees instead of a listing fee. There will be 3 different tiers. I think he said $2,500, $6,000 and $10,000 to be paid upfront. Each tier comes with better/more service(s). He will get paid whether the listing sells or not. I assume this is in response to the market he is witnessing. What, exactly, it means, I do not know.

When that hits the Internet, post the info here for our criticism.

Booger says

It was something like $450 just to get it on the MLS for me, and that was all I needed.

I have a family member who is a broker and that's about standard. I don't pay that but I do pay whatever real estate agent rents my place out 450-500. By that I mean they just show it and convince their client that it's for them.

Booger says

When that hits the Internet, post the info here for our criticism.

Reminds me of fizzbo farms in the 80s. "For sale by owner" - with assistance. As far as I know it never took off.

just_passing_through says

Booger says

When that hits the Internet, post the info here for our criticism.

Reminds me of fizzbo farms in the 80s. "For sale by owner" - with assistance. As far as I know it never took off.

Yeah, I don't think he's offering anything new.

just_passing_through says

Reminds me of fizzbo farms in the 80s. "For sale by owner" - with assistance. As far as I know it never took off.

Correct, the FSBO farms failed. Realtors will not show FSBO and the vast majority of serous buyers will call a Realtor.

HeadSet says

Realtors will not show FSBO and the vast majority of serous buyers will call a Realtor.

This is the real problem. Why the fuck would any buyer want to pay 3% extra to be driven around and shown houses is puzzling to me.

https://www.reddit.com/r/realtors/comments/18j6lm8/the_majority_of_yall_are_not_great/

The majority of y’all are not great

As a realtor myself for a couple years now, with parents who have been in the biz my entire life too, I’ve noticed how unethical realtors are. I really try to be the most honest realtor I can be to my clients and to other agents. I literally tell my clients now that I think it is a horrible time to buy (generally speaking-if they don’t have to), and let them make that decision themself. Here’s what I’ve noticed in lots of realtors:

They will push boundaries.

They will try to go after another’s agents client.

They will hide important details just to get a deal done.

They will treat other agents like shit and be the fakest nicest person to their clients.

They will actively go after a buyer's deposit when possible.

They lie about the current state of the market in order to get a deal done.

They will make decisions on behalf of their clients without even asking them.

They will bribe other agents to get their clients offer accepted.

They will display favoritism to other agents in a multiple offer situation.

A lot of y’all really just DO NOT KNoW HoW TO DO YoUR JOB, and will put your clients negligently at risk.

Money hungry mfs

Here is a particularly good comment:
We had a realtor tell my husband to fuck off over the phone after he said he didn't want to see a property that was an hour drive from his work. It pissed me off so bad I left a bad review and the guys boss apologized to us. It still pissed me off so bad we stopped house hunting and have just resigned ourselves to keep living in our current home.

zzyzzx says

Why the fuck would any buyer want to pay 3% extra to be driven around and shown houses is puzzling to me.

That is not how it works. The seller who listed has already obligated a 6% commission on the sale of the house. There is no 3% discount if a buyer shows up without an agent. If you are saying a buyer should only look at FSBO, understand the FSBO seller typically does not discount, he just wants to save from paying a commission. Otherwise, why not just offer "3% to the selling agent" to save work and draw more buyers?

HeadSet says

zzyzzx says

Why the fuck would any buyer want to pay 3% extra to be driven around and shown houses is puzzling to me.

That is not how it works. The seller who listed has already obligated a 6% commission on the sale of the house. There is no 3% discount if a buyer shows up without an agent. If you are saying a buyer should only look at FSBO, understand the FSBO seller typically does not discount, he just wants to save from paying a commission. Otherwise, why not just offer "3% to the selling agent" to save work and draw more buyers?

You get it. Also, regardless of how dumb realtors are, and they are, they're smarter with housing compared to the average buyer.

I also know multiple people that have a law license and failed the RE license exam multiple times. Not sure what it means, but I know what I know. One of them being my sister... You have to have some intelligence to get a license although I wouldn't doubt some women suck the proctors cock to pass the license test. Just saying.

It's a weird industry to be honest. I got out of it because I couldn't stand the people and the lying. Too many hands in the pot looking to make money as well. I don't say this lightly but I would have killed myself if I stayed in the business. My life is much better now. I don't care if people shit on Realtors, just understand it's generally a shit existence with no consistent income.

The comments here are priceless:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/writing-wall-100b-annual-real-130000835.html

Because realtors are horrible people:
https://youtu.be/F90RjeWcuck?si=hjO02xrOVT3PhUQv

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/08/national-association-of-realtors-president-says-she-is-resigning-after-blackmail-threat.html

National Association of Realtors president says she is resigning after blackmail threat

https://www.realestatenews.com/2024/02/05/nar-ends-january-with-1-515-million-members-a-loss-of-38k

NAR loses 38,700 members in January

zzyzzx says

https://www.realestatenews.com/2024/02/05/nar-ends-january-with-1-515-million-members-a-loss-of-38k

NAR loses 38,700 members in January

This is to be expected.
Sales down = less realtors.
Less realtors = less fees paying to the NAR.

zzyzzx says

Not sure where this is practice. It’s illegal and a breach of fiduciary.

I haven’t encountered this situation in my dealings in the last 15 years. Also, I’ve encountered both crooked and “honest” agents. Some of them would sell their mother for a commission. However, I get to decide who I want to continue to do business with.

Eman says

Some of them would sell their mother for a commission.

I know this nail technician who is taking exams to become a real estate agent. Single mom with two kids and two fathers. Seems like anyone can become a real estate agent and handle the biggest purchase. Unfortunately, the laws are also written to facilitate prostitution of mothers and daughters for a commission.

Recently put in an offer for a nice house at 3% below list. The condescending response from the realtor was typical. This is not the down market of several months ago. Pointed to a pending offer on another home that had since fallen through. Even pointed to a larger home with a higher list price that was on the market and had not received an offer, but that had a much lower price/sq.ft. WTF!?

Anyway, after we did a thorough walkthrough ourselves, and after working with our realtor to put in a bid, then came the, oh, BTW disclosures. Jumping Jiminy! We quickly bailed. What a fuckiing waste of time. The owners had been alleged to have committed fraud, neglecting to disclose to a previous buyer significant problems with the home. The industrious propsective buyer learned about these through earlier ill-advised social media posts by the seller, which blasted the builder. The prospective buyer correctly accused the realtor and his clients of fraud in an ongoing chain of e-mails that were supplied to us after we put in our bid. Regarding one of the problems not disclosed by the sellers, the realtor took the opinion that the prospective buyer should have noticed it during his walkaround. Not surprisnlgy, the home is still on the market, and I am of the mind that the comp pending offer was made by a stooge to prop up that market, but who knows? It did suspiciously evaporate after we pulled our offer.

Eman says

Not sure where this is practice. It’s illegal and a breach of fiduciary.

A lot of assumptions are made on the internet. Broker could have called the seller and said hey I got this low ball offer of X, you want to see it and just talk terms over the phone. That happens all the time. Seller probably said no. Likely just didn't SEE that offer. 150 days in any market unless massively over priced you WILL get an offer.

My guess is this is a dip shit seller that didn't remember the phone call and said fuck that price and said don't even waste your time sending it. It's then likely the buyer's broker just didn't tell him because the person was probably working another job or had a bunch of other buyers and didn't tell him the offer was rejected.

Gotta remember there are marketing tactics you can use to get new leads. Selling houses fast is one of them. 150 days on the market it would be insane not to present the offer to your client. Methinks this is bull and someone is angry about not getting a property. #lie