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A Long View of Stocks and Inflation/Leverage


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2018 Oct 24, 1:58pm   1,786 views  7 comments

by NuttBoxer   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Looking at the drop today of 600 points(currently), was wondering where stocks are at overall. I looked back 5 years, but didn't feel like I was getting a complete picture. Looking back to the 70's I think the story becomes quite clear. There was obvious inflation and leveraging of worthless assets in the buildup to the 2008 crash, but compared to the that bottom and now, the growth looks tame and nominal. Looking at the mountain that has built since then, and the steepness of the rise, I think the inevitability of a crash, a BIG crash, cannot be denied. At the height of the last stock frenzy the market roughly doubled. Currently we are more than 3, nearly 4 times the the 2008 bottom. Yet I see nothing tangible to support this kind of growth. There are still millions unemployed, the number of homeless seems to be increasing, almost everything is made in China, the national debt is trillions higher, and Apple offerings are way shittier than past products. This will not end well.

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1   Evan F.   2018 Oct 24, 2:53pm  

Corrections have always happened, in varying degrees, every 8 to 10 years. The fact that we haven't had one since the real estate/mortgage crisis of 08 means we're already on borrowed time.

Trump's tax cut and fiscal policies have, in part, stalled the arrival of such a correction. But there's only so much he and the Fed can do when you're dealing with massively complex market machinery.

When the correction comes- and it will- it remains to be seen how much blame he'll take for it. It essentially torpedoed Bush Sr.'s second term aspirations, so timing is everything, I guess.
2   Heraclitusstudent   2018 Oct 24, 3:59pm  

Looks like Trump hot air is dissipating fast.
3   NuttBoxer   2018 Oct 25, 11:57am  

Evan F. says
Corrections have always happened, in varying degrees, every 8 to 10 years. The fact that we haven't had one since the real estate/mortgage crisis of 08 means we're already on borrowed time.


Only under central banks. Without a central bank to prop up the leveraging at national levels, corrections used to be localized, and much less regular. Boom/Bust is the Feds bread and butter.
4   clambo   2018 Oct 26, 5:50am  

It will end well enough for me; I plan on staying invested until my net worth allows a comfortable income to support my travels and fun.

If you plan on living for 10 years, buy stock mutual funds. You will have a higher net worth after 5 years and after 10 it will look very good to you.
5   Shaman   2018 Oct 26, 6:15am  

And the Dow has risen 400 this morning so far.
Another doom and gloom prediction... sorry not buying right now. Fundamentals are fine. Market swings will happen but crashes come when the underpinnings get whacked. Consumer confidence is still high as fuck. When that changes, look for a crash.
6   Shaman   2018 Oct 26, 6:17am  

Heraclitusstudent says
Looks like Trump hot air is dissipating fast.


Looks like that case of TDS you’ve been nursing is festering.
7   NuttBoxer   2018 Oct 26, 8:39am  

Quigley says
Market swings will happen but crashes come when the underpinnings get whacked.


What fucking underpinnings? We went off the silver standard over 100 years ago, and gold almost 50 years ago. What the fuck is the current economy backed on that has your confidence so high?

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