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Patrick looking for a new stock


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2018 Aug 24, 4:51pm   7,883 views  55 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (55)   💰tip   ignore  

Now that Pepsi is buying SODA, I'm looking for a new place to put that money.

I'm too old to take massive risks with money, but a little risk is OK. My ideal stock would have these features:

* has earnings
* p/e below the annual percentage growth rate (so a p/e of 40 is ok if the company earnings are growing >40% per year)
* pays a dividend (not required, but a good sign of stability and respect for the investors)
* makes something I can understand easily, preferably something I know and use myself
* relatively small market capitalization, like under $1B, preferably under $500M, to give room for growth
* some kind of edge over the competition

All suggestions appreciated. Weed stocks could be a good bet if I can find one that looks like it has really solid growing earnings.

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2   Patrick   2018 Aug 24, 5:32pm  

Thanks. While the revenue and earnings for Facebook are pretty good, I just can't buy the stock because I see them as a mass surveillance tool and don't want to be part of that.

Also, I think they really are vulnerable to some free distributed replacement where users keep all their info on a home server, or their phone, and thus don't need Facebook at all anymore. Hasn't happened yet, but I can easily imagine it.
3   WookieMan   2018 Aug 24, 5:44pm  

Patrick says
I just can't buy the stock because I see them as a mass surveillance tool and don't want to be part of that.


I'd agree with the 2nd part of your comment after this quote. But we are being surveilled now and will be for ever moving forward. Don't even worry about FB. That's the least of your(our) worries.

I have 8 cameras around my property. Even with any common sense safeguards, I can bet the gov could look at any one of them at any time. The only way to 100% foolproof that is to not connect to the internet. Almost anyone has some IOT device that can peg them to a location at minimum and at worst, show video of them. The idea of privacy is over. Done.

So that part of it I would say ignore. Fact is people voluntarily give the info to FB. Most know it too. They just don't care. With facial recognition and major cities having cameras on every light pole, privacy is a thing of the past.
4   curious2   2018 Aug 24, 5:49pm  

Patrick says
I just can't buy the stock because I see them as a mass surveillance tool and don't want to be part of that.


For that reason among others, I miss iwog. He had (and probably has) a remarkable ability to separate his investment decisions from his personal opinions and values. For example, his investment ideas included ARLP even though he warned against AGW. I couldn't buy it because of how I feel about the coal industry, but he bought it even though he had even stronger feelings against the industry.
5   Booger   2018 Aug 24, 5:53pm  

Why not a mutual fund?
6   MrMagic   2018 Aug 24, 5:54pm  

WookieMan says
But we are being surveilled now and will be for ever moving forward. Don't even worry about FB.


You have no idea what data and information FB is vacuuming up, do you?
7   MrMagic   2018 Aug 24, 5:58pm  

curious2 says
For example, his investment ideas included ARLP


ARLP 5 year chart:

8   Evan F.   2018 Aug 24, 6:00pm  

I'm looking at F. Obviously not in your range for market cap, but it's yield is great and they're on solid footing with their assets. Retooling for crossovers and SUVs is crappy IMHO, but it's a nimble response to changing market demands so I really can't fault them.

Worth a look, at the very least?
9   curious2   2018 Aug 24, 6:02pm  

MrMagic says

ARLP 5 year chart:


IIRC, he recommended it near the valley, and the dividend yield remains ~10%.
10   Heraclitusstudent   2018 Aug 24, 6:15pm  

Patrick says
I just can't buy the stock because I see them as a mass surveillance tool and don't want to be part of that.

Your scruples are commendable.
If I can make money on them, I'll take that over them making money on me.
11   Patrick   2018 Aug 24, 6:58pm  

Booger says
Why not a mutual fund?


Because almost all mutual funds skim a considerable amount and then also fail to even track the market, let alone beat it. It's like paying someone to lose your money.

Vanguard index funds are the main exception.
12   Patrick   2018 Aug 24, 7:02pm  

Evan F. says
I'm looking at F. Obviously not in your range for market cap, but it's yield is great and they're on solid footing with their assets. Retooling for crossovers and SUVs is crappy IMHO, but it's a nimble response to changing market demands so I really can't fault them.

Worth a look, at the very least?


I do own some GM because Warren Buffett bought it, and that has done OK, so I'll look more at Ford, though its 5 year graph is nasty.
13   MrMagic   2018 Aug 24, 7:04pm  

Patrick says
I'm looking for a new place to put that money.


What about sector based ETF's. They buy and sell like individual stocks, but you're actually buying a basket of stocks, so your exposure isn't as bad.

Pick a sector that you feel has growth potential, both in good times and bad.
14   KgK one   2018 Aug 24, 7:44pm  

Teva they make cheap generics n Warren Buffett bought them
15   Patrick   2018 Aug 24, 8:31pm  

MrMagic says
Patrick says
I'm looking for a new place to put that money.


What about sector based ETF's. They buy and sell like individual stocks, but you're actually buying a basket of stocks, so your exposure isn't as bad.

Pick a sector that you feel has growth potential, both in good times and bad.


It's nice that ETFs trade throughout the day instead of just once per day, but I had a really bad experience with an ETF, so I'm kind of put off by them too. I bought an ETF which then declared a big dividend, like 10% of the value of the ETF.

Of course the ETF also fell by 10% to compensate. I got a check for my 10%, which you might think makes it all fine, but then I owed tax on that.

So I had to pay tax on my own money which they had given back to me. Extremely annoying, especially since the ETF did not perform all that well after that. Never bought one since.
16   clambo   2018 Aug 24, 8:35pm  

I am buying a few stocks with the proceeds of some Wells Fargo shares I inherited.

I just bought some John Deere (DE) and Alibaba ADRs (BABA)

I am probably going to buy some NextEra Energy (NEE)

I will also buy a Swiss stock ETF from Franklin Templeton (FSLW)

I may buy Nvidia (NVDA)

Mutual funds however are the way to invest your money most efficiently. I am going to buy individual stocks just for fun really.
17   MrMagic   2018 Aug 24, 8:59pm  

Patrick says
Extremely annoying, especially since the ETF did not perform all that well after that. Never bought one since.


Which ETF?

You really can't make a blanket statement from one EFT. There are a couple of thousand of them.

Patrick says
Of course the ETF also fell by 10% to compensate.


It just can't fall because it paid a dividend. What was it tied to or what was it's make up, which companies? What time period, what was the market doing at the time?

ETF's are structured a bunch of different ways. Sector based, Index based, LargeCap, mid cap, small cap, bond, emerging markets, specialty markets, etc.

So much better than mutual funds, lower costs and easier to "punch out" from. Hell, there are commission free ETFs you can buy with like 0.04% expense ratios or lower. Check out the choices at Vanguard or Fidelity.
18   anonymous   2018 Aug 24, 10:17pm  

AMD-https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/amd-we-very-unique-dr-lisa-su-kenneth-m-luskin/ (I own since 2015)
ALRM-cloud security for commercial real estate.(I own since 2018)
19   WookieMan   2018 Aug 25, 5:00am  

MrMagic says
WookieMan says
But we are being surveilled now and will be for ever moving forward. Don't even worry about FB.


You have no idea what data and information FB is vacuuming up, do you?


If you're not on FB, why would you worry about it? I know I don't because they don't have anything on me, don't have an account. And if you're on FB and more concerned about their data collection versus our government, you just don't understand.

FISA court was recently used to spy on American citizens, for what looks like political gain. And you're worried about FB? The whole FISA thing is just the tip of the iceberg what our government does. Get into the FBI, CIA, NSA, etc and you have no clue what they're even doing. And those are just the agencies we're allowed to know about. Scary FB though where YOU, the user VOLUNTEERS the information about your cat. And if you're dumb, your birthday and other personal information.

You see, people have an option to use or not use FB. Don't have that choice with US Gov. unless you want to move out of country. And even then, they're collecting data on foreigners. So not sure what you're getting at. Privacy is dead and has been for a long time in this country. You should be more concerned about that over FB.
20   _   2018 Aug 25, 7:04am  

Did anyone here take my MASI stock pick from years ago, I am sure some of you are chart people ;-)
21   WookieMan   2018 Aug 25, 7:18am  

Logan Mohtashami says
Did anyone here take my MASI stock pick from years ago, I am sure some of you are chart people ;-)


I did not, but appreciate people putting stuff like this out there and remember the thread. Unfortunately, I'm guessing there will be something negative posted about your pick. It's like clockwork, every, day.
22   MrMagic   2018 Aug 25, 8:15am  

WookieMan says
If you're not on FB, why would you worry about it?


I'm not on FB, so it's not an issue for me.

WookieMan says
I know I don't because they don't have anything on me, don't have an account.


You're one of the FEW people who aren't. The majority of the other clueless people in the country are.

WookieMan says
And if you're on FB and more concerned about their data collection versus our government, you just don't understand.


The majority of people on FB have no idea what's being collected by them, and based on your post, you don't either. It's not just what people post on their pages.
23   WookieMan   2018 Aug 25, 9:09am  

MrMagic says
I'm not on FB, so it's not an issue for me.


Cool. Don't care. Glad you think I did though. Flattering I suppose.

MrMagic says
You're one of the FEW people who aren't. The majority of the other clueless people in the country are.


It does appear to be a majority. I'd be surprised if all those users are active though. If you don't delete your account, then you still get counted. It's also very easy to fluff numbers as a company, when you're the only one with the official numbers.

MrMagic says
The majority of people on FB have no idea what's being collected by them, and based on your post, you don't either.


Going to be blunt. The bold part is the reason you're one of the most ignored users here. And I know that you like that I'm even acknowledging the trolling. You can link 1,000 articles but the fact remains that YOU have zero idea what FB is even collecting unless you work there.

My original point was about FB being the least of our worries, for the third time I think now. You somehow got attached onto what data FB collects. No. One. Gives. A. Fuck. I was replying to Patrick and he didn't seem to be bothered by the statement as he didn't shoot it down. Quote Patrick's original comment, agree with his statement and move on.

You've done nothing here except state the obvious. FB collects data, duh.... Not one person has disputed what you're stating. You understand that, right?
24   WookieMan   2018 Aug 26, 6:49am  

Lol! Let's worry about FB: https://www.theverge.com/2018/8/24/17778736/facial-recognition-washington-airport-immigration-biometric-exit

Good they caught someone trying to enter illegally. Just know they have the tech already though to use it on us. The government that is. And they are. You think all the cities with cameras on light poles put them there to just check things out? Deter illegal activity? But hey, Facebook.....
25   FortWayne   2018 Aug 26, 8:16am  

best investment is buying a company that makes sense for larger company to buyout. multiplier is fast and big.

SODA was great for me too. I wish I invested a lot more than I did back in the days. But I was already spread out across many stocks.
26   FortWayne   2018 Aug 26, 8:18am  

Logan Mohtashami says
Did anyone here take my MASI stock pick from years ago, I am sure some of you are chart people ;-)


What do they make?
27   everything   2018 Aug 26, 2:20pm  

Follow along the fringes of cobalt and lithium, battery tech., even hydrogen, look for companies that are getting ready to ride this wave. A few players will end up dominate in this industry, not just niche players, but players who set the standard. Energy is often a safe play, not super high growth, depends on what part of the sector you play.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/27/apples-surprising-cobalt-move-signals-its-a-good-time-to-buy-metals.html
28   Patrick   2018 Aug 26, 8:21pm  

Thanks, that sounds like a solid tip, especially since I am convinced that batteries will play a much larger role in our lives in the future.
29   MrMagic   2018 Aug 26, 8:33pm  

Patrick says
Thanks, that sounds like a solid tip, especially since I am convinced that batteries will play a much larger role in our lives in the future.


If you're interested in the battery technology, go over and read this post at Denniger. He rambles on about batteries, mining and production costs and how they relate to the EV industry:

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=234074
30   FortWayne   2018 Aug 26, 8:37pm  

Patrick says
Thanks, that sounds like a solid tip, especially since I am convinced that batteries will play a much larger role in our lives in the future.


It's hard to pick a company that does that well. I know Tesla does batteries well, but I don't know anyone else. Nor I get this industry enough. Anything you think is good? I'm trying to figure out a good tip again.
32   MrMagic   2018 Aug 27, 11:04am  

Patrick says
Extremely annoying, especially since the ETF did not perform all that well after that. Never bought one since.


34   anonymous   2019 Feb 15, 1:07pm  

PepsiCo plans layoffs, plant closures in overhaul

PepsiCo Inc. plans to shed jobs and close plants over the next few years as part of a new restructuring program, as Chief Executive Ramon Laguarta looks to make his imprint on the food and beverage company.

The Purchase, N.Y., firm said Friday it expects to incur about $2.5 billion in pretax charges through 2023 from the program, designed to "leverage new technology and business models." The company's 2018 results included $138 million of restructuring costs, and it expects to incur $800 million in the current year.

The maker of Mountain Dew, Quaker Oats oatmeal and Tropicana orange juice also said it expects organic revenue -- which excludes currency fluctuations, acquisitions and divestitures -- to rise 4% this year, compared with 3.7% in the recently ended year. Core earnings are expected to fall by about 3%, driven by items including a higher tax rate and investments being made this year.

Shares of PepsiCo rose 1.3% in premarket trading after the company said revenue was flat from a year earlier though it benefited from higher prices in its North America units. Because of higher transportation costs, the beverage maker had planned to raise prices on some of its Frito-Lay products in October.

Mr. Laguarta, who took over as CEO from Indra Nooyi in October, has been working to focus the company on priorities including accelerating organic revenue growth and managing costs and using the resulting savings to reinvest in the business. To push sales growth, PepsiCo has looked at increasing advertising, broadening product lines and making changes to packaging.

Earlier this week, Coca-Cola Co. said it expects sales to slow in 2019. In the latest quarter, Coca-Cola said tea and coffee sales volume rose while soda sales volume fell. Shares in the company fell 8.4% to $45.59 on Thursday.

PepsiCo said revenue was $19.52 billion in the fourth quarter, in line with estimates from analysts polled by Refinitiv. Organic revenue rose 4.6%.

Among PepsiCo segments, Frito-Lay North America saw the biggest increase in the quarter, with revenue climbing 3.6%. Revenue rose 1.8% in the company's North American beverages division.

PepsiCo reported a fourth-quarter profit of $6.85 billion, or $4.83 a share, which included a $4.93 billion income-tax benefit. For the comparable quarter a year prior, the company posted a loss of $710 million, or 50 cents a share.

Excluding one-time items, earnings were $1.49 a share, which met analysts' estimates.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/pepsico-plans-layoffs-plant-closures-in-overhaul-2019-02-15
35   Tenpoundbass   2019 Feb 15, 1:10pm  

Invest in Guns and Amo makers.

Make them too big to fail.
36   Rin   2019 Feb 15, 1:33pm  

Patrick says
relatively small market capitalization, like under $1B, preferably under $500M, to give room for growth


Pat, most 'Dividend Aristocrats' have a higher market cap than $1B. I mean the S&P500 starts at ~$6B per company and that's in the ~500 category.

Anything below $1B is a small potatoes firm trying to make it big and thus, you'll have to forgo the steady dividend check for the cap gains yield.

Since I have some 10% of my equity left in this hedge fund of mine, that's my last cap gains play. Like you, I'm too old to take chances on a bunch of go nowhere companies.

I mean really, do you want to hold positions in Red Robin Gourmet Burgers and other such kludgy cap gain plays? Remember, In and Out Burger & Five Guys are still privately held and appear to have done a damn good job of roasting their competition.
37   zzyzzx   2019 Feb 15, 1:44pm  

At these prices, I am not sure that I would be buying anything. Maybe AT&T for the dividend, even though I hate the company.
38   MisdemeanorRebel   2019 Feb 15, 2:01pm  

I so wish SpaceX was Public.
39   Patrick   2019 Feb 15, 5:34pm  

zzyzzx says
At these prices, I am not sure that I would be buying anything. Maybe AT&T for the dividend, even though I hate the company.


There are always bargains about. The hard part is finding them.
40   Patrick   2019 Feb 15, 9:43pm  

Rin says
Anything below $1B is a small potatoes firm trying to make it big and thus, you'll have to forgo the steady dividend check for the cap gains yield.


You're right. I do want contradictory things to some degree.

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