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DOW Jones prediction thread


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2018 Feb 21, 1:05pm   13,249 views  54 comments

by lostand confused   ➕follow (3)   💰tip   ignore  

So looks like the FED released their minutes from jan and market is starting to go down.

I expect the correction to go down deeper-perhaps at least 22,000+

The last one was savage -2 1000 point dips and then a furious 6 day rally-but a lower top.

I am wondering are we looking 22,000+ and then resume or a larger term decline?

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41   MrMagic   2018 Mar 23, 2:50pm  

Patrick says
The value of a house is in what you could rent it out for. Or put another way, how much rent you can save.


What about shelter for your family? Doesn't that value count?
42   Patrick   2018 Mar 23, 2:53pm  

Renting gets you shelter just like buying does.

The big question is the cost.
43   MrMagic   2018 Mar 23, 6:31pm  

Patrick says
Renting gets you shelter just like buying does.

The big question is the cost.


I believe cost is only one part of the puzzle. After being a home owner for decades, I tried renting for a few years to let the housing collapse level out. Renting sucked. Yes, it was cheaper, but not worth it in the big picture.

Having been on both sides, I rather spend a little bit more not to have to deal with a landlord, and be able to do what I want to the property. I rather deal with the bank (mortgage) then be at the whim of a landlord. At least I know I'm here long term, as long as I send the mortgage check, and the bank will never show up to nose around like a landlord will. Plus, I don't have to worry about a landlord stiffing the bank and not pay HIS mortgage, only to have the Sherriff show up to throw us out for eviction, or have to worry about being kicked out at the end of the lease.

Peace of mind has a cost, and I'm will to pay extra for it. Plus, I don't have any kids living at home. If I had little kids, the last thing I would want to do is move them when the lease expired.
44   Patrick   2018 Mar 23, 10:47pm  

Yes, not having to move is worth something, but how much? There is some number.
45   MrMagic   2018 Mar 24, 6:43am  

Patrick says
Yes, not having to move is worth something, but how much? There is some number.


So what's your number?

For me, not having to deal with a landlord and being able to do what I want with my house, the number was about $20K - $22K, and my mortgage payment was the same as my rent payment.

Plus, I get to deduct property tax and the MID (which I couldn't do as a renter, saving me income taxes in April), so on a monthly basis, I come out ahead (and I get a forced savings account with the equity portion). With rent payments, the whole payment was vaporized and I got zero economic benefit, except for shelter.

Actually, I didn't tie up a lot of money on putting down a big down payment, so actually my investment growth covered the mortgage interest and then some, and keeps me more liquid, instead of locking money into the house, which would be more difficult to extract, if needed.

Being on both sides of the equation, owning is by far better than renting, and we haven't had hardly any appreciation in home prices (like in your area) and it's still way more beneficial.
46   anonymous   2018 Mar 24, 7:02am  

I agree that owning is better than renting when it's the same or cheaper than renting. The problem with CA is that that's not the case.
48   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Mar 26, 12:59pm  

Feux Follets says
Potus going to own this stinker when it turns back the other way, and it is going to turn back the other way - bigly.


Yeah, the Dow went up over 30% since Trump was elected until today, and reached an all-time record, but it's unreasonable to expect the market to flatten or even correct a bit at this point.

"Why, if it doesn't gain another 30% again this year, it proves ORANGE DOUCHE is a lousy President. Impeach!"

Feux Follets says
Going to be posting down x number of points today when the next shoe drops ?



That's what ungrateful Anti-Trumpers will be doing.
49   MrMagic   2018 Mar 26, 1:39pm  

TwoScoopsPlissken says
Yeah, the Dow went up over 30% since Trump was elected until today, and reached an all-time record, but it's unreasonable to expect the market to flatten or even correct a bit at this point.


We simply have to impeach him after that.

Feux Follets says
Dive in fully, buy the dip, get as exposed as possible - Wall Street needs you.


Sounds like someone who missed the 30% rise, due to not having anything invested in the market.

Sour Grapes, maybe?
50   lostand confused   2018 Mar 26, 4:37pm  

Feux Follets says
Merely a cautionary comment to those screaming MAGA and WINNING every time the market pops - considering buying based on what Potus blabbed about concerning the Infrastructure Plan etc. - in addition to having a diversified investment portfolio age and other factors play into all of this.

There are going to be some people burned very soon.


You got tot ake the emotion out of markets. Markets are emotional, but you can't stand alone against a tsunami.
To me Trump, Obama, Clinton, Bush-who cares-how do you make money. It did take a while to get there.
51   lostand confused   2018 Mar 26, 4:51pm  

Feux Follets says
I am of the camp things are going to change and not in a good way much sooner than anyone realizes.

Things will always change. It never stays the same. As for Trump, he is doing the ebst he can -much better than that pig Obama who turned out to be an authotitarian leftoid in the model of leftist dictators who demand fawning adualtion.

For investments, I have been out assuming it would go down, but nah it went up instead. Too rich to get in now, got two rentals instead, solid income, not much appreciation expected. Debt just to deduct interest.

if it goes down, fine, will renter the market.

But democrats are now the party of free trade, globalism, massive spying, trying to subvert democracy by spying on the opposition, love big corporations. Change is constant-maybe they may go back to their roots-who knows-oh and gazillion genders.
52   mell   2018 Apr 26, 3:36pm  

After today's earnings smash I reiterate Dow 30k. If it does not reach it and instead goes down or sideways may mean we have reached a top and a bigger correction is ahead. Because based on recent bellwether earnings 30k is in store very soon. No reason to be bearish.
53   anotheraccount   2018 Apr 26, 4:58pm  

mell says
No reason to be bearish.


2 year at 2.5% is one. It pays more than dividend yield on S&P. Corporate debt at all time high and a lot of it short term that has to be refinanced is two. Oh and someone has to buy all these extra treasuries that results from corporations getting a tax cut. I think that when the deficits will go through the roof, even Republicans might consider rolling back unfunded tax cut.s
54   mell   2018 Apr 27, 7:47am  

anotheraccount says
mell says
No reason to be bearish.


2 year at 2.5% is one. It pays more than dividend yield on S&P. Corporate debt at all time high and a lot of it short term that has to be refinanced is two. Oh and someone has to buy all these extra treasuries that results from corporations getting a tax cut. I think that when the deficits will go through the roof, even Republicans might consider rolling back unfunded tax cut.s


You may well be right. The response to yuge corp earnings beats (not just net eps from tax cuts also gross rev beats) is muted at best and the market has been choppy. Still so far I don't see any signs of even a mild recession. Where's our resident cheerleader Logan when we need him ;)

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