patrick.net

Feux Follets says

Obviously this is wasted - these smelters run on electricity, lots of it, We do not have cheap electricity all over. Canada has a abundance of dirt cheap hydro produced electric power.

The US has some of the cheapest electric in the world, about half the OECD average.



This explains why Canada and Norway are big Aluminium producers, and why we are also.

If Trump actually wanted jobs, he’d end Cannabis Prohibition as it’s ALREADY a 50+ Billion $ industry that would employ millions, stamp out the opioid epidemic, and cut the legs out from Big Pharma, all while restoring lonf lost Liberties and Freedoms- the definition of Making America Great Again

Instead, you have Trump fanboys doing extreme gymnastics over a few hundred jobs that come at a cost

Feux Follets says

Chant MAGA until your blue in the face, chant WINNING as well to the same result - these jobs are not coming back in any meaningful way no matter how Breitbart spins it or the administration spins it or Potus lies outright and tells you they are.

The jobs are coming back. A very modest tariff and they're roaring back in mere days.

We're not going to repeat the failed trade policies of the past 25 years, which were originally sold as expanding US Manufacturing Jobs but were crafted by Multinationals, Foreign Government Lobbyists, and Wall Street to maximize labor arbitrage almost wholly at the expense of the US Middle Class.

When you find yourself in a hole, the first thing is stop digging.

If expensive Norway and Canada can make Aluminium, so can we. Hell, we're still in the top 10.

Maybe we need to build new plants, I'm down with that. Molten Salt Reactors, since nothing else will scale with future energy demand anyway. Maybe more Hydro, but we'll have to rocket past Environmental Challenges, funded by nefarious Multinational Interests who want to hamstring the Competition, ie the USA.

In fact, a ban on any lobbying by non-US Citizens and non-Domestic HQ'd companies would be a great step.

China is #1 Aluminium Producer, but do you know the only reason China is #1? Hint: Cough Cough

Middle America is in Crisis. We can no longer listen to the False Song of Globalism.

Feux Follets says

Based on the most recently completed plants, an estimated $1.5 billion would be required. Add to this the requirement that this new smelter have its own electricity-generating facilities to service it.

And yet, the Chinese produce a shitload of aluminum, even though we're a far, far, wealthier country. And they've been building them like crazy over the past 25 years.

So not buying the cost excuse. If China can afford 'em, we definitely can.


Feux Follets says

Out steel industry and aluminum industries are not competitive with state of the art facilities.

You're stuck in the 80s. American factories weren't all that outdated to big with and now they simply aren't dated at all. Almost all steel made today - including in the USA - is created for very narrow, tailored usage.

In any case, Germany and Japan were making steel in the 19th Century, if they updated their plants... so can we.

And Chinese factories are full to the brim of "Gorky Machine Tools, All Power to the Soviet, 1948" and "Ten Thousand Years Health to Mao Tse Tung, 1954." ancient rusty behemoths. I know this because I used to follow a site that a few years ago that investigated Chinese companies trying to list on the NASDAQ. They'd do shit like slap a calculator on the side, paint it crisp white, and say, "You look, Gwai Lo. Modern Equipment! Digital! Our factory modern with World War 2 Lenning--- I mean brand new Japanese Roller straight from Yokohama!"

What do you think the Chinese do when they buy up US Mills? They take all the machinery they can possibly break down back to China to replace their ancient Soviet Equipment they brought in the 90s when Russia was a free-for-all.

Feux Follets says

Such cumulative considerations, when combined with the availability of needed energy at a competitive price, lend some credence to the often heard statements that another aluminum smelter will not be built in the United States.

Uh, they're building a brand new smelter.

MARSTON, Mo. — A new aluminum smelter will open in the Missouri Bootheel region in May, replacing roughly half of the jobs lost when another smelter shut down two years ago.

Magnitude 7 Metals plans to hire 450 people for its plant in the former Noranda Aluminum smelter in New Madrid County, near the tiny town of Marston, about 150 miles south of St. Louis. CEO Bob Prusak said 140 people have already been hired. One line of the plant will open in May, and the s\econd in November.

https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2018/03/09/us/ap-us-aluminum-plant-greitens.html

Try giving it more than a few days. It took decades for Wall Street to trade off US jobs and factories for ownership of foreign assets and free capital flows.

Feux Follets says

Less than a 1,000 jobs is not roaring back and failure to keep in mind this is very cyclical environment does not bode well for investing large sums of money in new facilities when you don't have to. Cheaper to buy it from someone else who has their money tied up in large capital expenditures which frees you to do something else.

I count way over 1000 and it's not a week yet. And, these are just the direct jobs, not the knock-on effects from shipping the finished materials to servicing the trucks that ship the material, to the waitresses at the lunchonette near the mill.

Feux Follets says

Cheaper to buy it from someone else who has their money tied up in large capital expenditures which frees you to do something else.

Looking forward to the South Sea Crisis with the Chinese, where we build ships out of printed Goldman Sachs T&Cs from some MBS and some Century 21 Sale Signs.

"Ha! China, our new Tweet Destroyers launch 100 likes at you. And, our new AI Legal department is filing at the Hague with all kinds of charges. Bet your D-21 missile can't shoot that down. We'd throw plastic ninja stars at you, but realized the components in the 3D printer was all made in China, it's broke and we don't have the industrial base to fix it."

That aside, a country of 350M people can't prosper on nothing but office and coffee jobs.

Feux Follets says

Nor can you sing the new false tune of Populism and Nationalism.

The word you're looking for Democracy, that the economic plan of the nation should serve the many and not just the Finance Sector and some credentialed professionals.

Not shorten their lives and weaken their standard of living. $300 laptop ain't much use when you're a laid off steelworker now stacking boxes P/T for $9/hr and can barely keep the lights on. Better that the laptop cost $900 and you make $15/hr.

Well, neoliberalism failed to bring the "High Tech Jobs of the Future" and thousands more tires sold TO Mexico, as Al Gore promised, but rather the exact opposite effect - all while he rolled his eyes at Perot.

Who was 100% correct, by the way, on trade and also the deficit spiraling out of control.

It cost us most of the $10T we added to our debt to bailout the banks and recover from the Great Financial Crisis. Now it's time to try a Manufacturing Bailout. We won't need to spend anything like what it cost to rescue the highly educated financial professionals from their 50- car pile up.

Feux Follets says

They also require something to power them and that would be ?

Electricity ! And the fucking shit is expensive and if the largest customer drops off line, guess who gets to pick up the tab ?

And guess who has the 2nd highest electric output in the world, as well as the 3rd cheapest electric of the OECD?



Consider that China has 3x the people but nowhere near 3x the Electric Capacity. So per capita, we would easily beat China in Electric Generation. In fact, China produces less electricity per capita than ... Surinam or Barbados or Romania and a host of other countries.
http://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/stats/Energy/Electricity/Consumption/Per-capita

The US Kwh per person is almost 500% more than China's KwH per person.

And yet China is a top Aluminium and Steel producer.

Sorry, the "Not Enough Electric" excuse doesn't fly.

And of course, if you love the environment you want your steel and aluminium made in the USA, since China's electric is overwhelmingly (72%) Coal Burning Plants.

I also caught this from your article, which is really about how wonderful the Aluminium Plant re-opening is and that the state is working to help them and other companies negotiate better rates:

Greitens said in November that the new law also proved beneficial when Nucor, the largest U.S. steel producer, announced it was opening a micro-mill in the Sedalia area, creating 250 jobs.

http://www.stltoday.com/business/local/new-missouri-aluminum-smelter-will-hire-employees/article_d484b44c-cf48-52e1-9db2-4aa6600a47c1.html

Wait, they're opening a micro-mill for steel nearby as well?

But that's ... impossible!!!

Feux Follets says

They also require something to power them and that would be ?

Electricity ! And the fucking shit is expensive and if the largest customer drops off line, guess who gets to pick up the tab ?

At the steel mill that I used to work at, Bethlehem Steel Sparrows Point, MD, sure electricity was used in the plant, but IIRC the fuel used to heat up the ore was coal converted into coke.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blast_furnace

Now at a mini-mill, yes, they use electricity.

Feux Follets says

Never said there wasn't enough - just not enough at the right price. Very key element - the price.

And I showed that we have the 3rd lowest average electric rates among the OECD, and it's nowhere near based on 72% from Coal like China.


It's so bad they actually turn off smelters and coal plants in the winter time because the smog makes it almost impossible even for healthy young people to function.

Feux Follets says

The problem is here, not there.

No it's not. The only countries with a higher per capita electric generation rate are either less populous Oil Rich Gulf States and the thinly populated Hydro/Geothermal Powers: Iceland, Norway, Canada, Finland.

No country anywhere near our size, population, and level of development has both Cheap and Plentiful Electric like we do.

Almost 5x the electric generation per head than China.

It's a competitive advantage FOR the USA: We've got the Power.

Feux Follets says

The Steelworkers Union did as much damage as the cost of electricity but at the end of the day it all goes back to management.

it goes back to a system that is geared to reward Wall Street pushing Companies to seek arbitrage abroad. A system that considers a move to Malaysia or Mexico to be just as much of a tax write-off as moving across the state. A weak system of easily loopholed tariffs and IP enforcement. No other country is so deliberately permissive.

Trump is finally doing something about it, and the Establishment profiting off the current system wants their glorious status quo.

Feux Follets says

Kind of curious, I thought Patrick and others on here have been screaming for several years now how bad a thing Diversity is but now it's a good thing ?

Please distinguish between job diversity and cultural/ethnic diversity.

I'm all for job diversity. And diversity of political opinion.

But cultural and ethnic diversity is provably a very bad thing for civic engagement.

Feux Follets says

Patrick says

But cultural and ethnic diversity is provably a very bad thing for civic engagement.

Also necessary to get results you mentioned in sentence two as well as diversity in thinking.

No. You think there was much diversity when the greek or latin philosopers debated theories and societies that were more than worlds apart with each other? There wasn't. It's not necessary at all. What is is a common cultural ground of manners and rules of engagement which is best achieved in a mostly homogenous society with some skilled immigration.

Feux Follets says

Not at the correct price for some of these companies to stay afloat. Don't care how much we make from what - at the end of the day if the consumer be it an individual or a corporation finds the price unacceptable - game over.

Plenty of countries making plenty of aluminium and steel with higher energy and labor costs than us. The stay afloat because the tariff the hell out of US Products, but we don't reciprocate.

Feux Follets says

The better question no one is asking is why some of these companies are staying in business with little to no problem but others are screaming unfair etc.

Because they have patented processes and alloys the Chinese don't have, and won't steal because these companies don't outsource to China.

Meanwhile, plenty of businesses are getting creamed after they move to China only to discover their contractors and subcontractors ripped off every process they have, and that Chicom Courts aren't like US Courts: They're always gonna find for the Han.

Finally, Management sucks, but we can't let 18,000 workers suffer for that. Let the German worker take it on the Chin and sacrifice for trade for a change.

Meanwhile, the EU that bitches about our tariffs just raised their own Tariffs Chinese Steel to 13% a few month ago. Not specific alloys, but mostly due to ordinary building steel:

https://www.ft.com/content/19d13d7f-8b47-311d-864a-dd69b46cf637

Feux Follets says

@Patrick. Seen your threads on diversity - don't agree and not getting into a mind numbing debate with you.

Heard the same old same old now since 2001.

It is a double edged sword that has to be strategically managed and most companies are totally inept when it comes to doing so.

Up until the rapefugee crisis Switzerland has been extremely homogenous - and it still is very. How has that hurt its standard of living, society, quality of life, companies, innovation?? It hasn't. in fact the opposite is true. They are in the top 10 for almost any desirable metric. Diversity is not necessary and starts becoming harmful in other than controlled doses.

Oops, I'm wrong. That's old. Here's the new EU Tariff on Chinese Steel Plate:

The European Commission, the EU's executive body, announced Chinese exports of steel plate will be taxed with anti-dumping duties ranging from 65.1 percent to 73.7 percent for a five-year period on February 28.

http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2017-03/10/content_28504633.htm

Must be bad management over in Germany. Why can't they just compete? Lay off those German Workers, you bad competitors. Those steel jobs ain't comin' back.

Unless, it's them not us.

Holy Shit, 65-73% Tariffs on Chinese Steel going to Europe

That's not me forgetting the decimal point. It's not 6.5% or 7.3%. It's 65-73%

When Germany get the EU to impose those kinds of tariffs on Chinese Steel, what is another similarly sized market will they look to dump it off in next?

Sorry Merkel, I'm not gonna be holding the hot potato when they yell "Time's Up". And dear God, you Euros are such sanctimonious hypocrites.

Here's Bloomberg Business with the same report on the Tariff Rate those Inept Europeans placed on China, "Up to 73%":
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-07/china-hit-with-more-eu-tariffs-on-steel-amid-overcapacity-worry

Well said sir.

TwoScoopsPlissken says

Feux Follets says

Pressed for time today.

No worries.

Feux Follets says

"IF" we are going to be great again - how do we achieve that at minimum wage ?

Not possible. One of the driving factors of the 50s and 60s was high demand, low labor supply. It makes companies train employees, pay them well to avoid turnover, and it can only happen if we restrict Corporate/Neoliberal gaming of the "Global Labor Market". Tariffs and restricting immigration is the only way to do it.

FortWayne says

Not possible. One of the driving factors of the 50s and 60s was high demand, low labor supply. It makes companies train employees, pay them well to avoid turnover, and it can only happen if we restrict Corporate/Neoliberal gaming of the "Global Labor Market". Tariffs and restricting immigration is the only way to do it.

Yeah, even the Europeans agree there is immense overcapacity because of the Chinese going apeshit with massive amounts of steel overproduction.

What's been happening is in the past couple of years, Chinese domestic demand has slowed, but their mills are running full bore, they have to or China Collapses from tens of millions of angry, unmarried, childless rioting unemployed males with no savings and absolutely nothing to lose.

So they want to dump stuff in Europe and the USA. The Europeans have imposed huge tariffs on a range of Chinese Steel.

If the Chinese couldn't dump steel in Europe, they'd dump even more in the USA, the most comparable market.

This was an act of self preservation.

There is only one steel mill in the USA capable of producing Steel Alloy for submarines. We probably don't want to outsource that.

Feux Follets says

Heard the same old same old now since 2001.

Not from me.

I discovered the harm that diversity inflicts on societies only in August of 2015.

But let's not argue. The scientific evidence is very clear and consistent. Diversity of population is mostly harmful. It's easy to look up the scientific facts.

Patrick says

But let's not argue. The scientific evidence is very clear and consistent. Diversity of population is mostly harmful. It's easy to do look up the scientific facts.

I remember Sociology Class in the 90s, after the first wave of Diversity ("Political Correctness") that was actually mocked broadly - remember the NYT Bestseller "PC Christmas Tales" where the guy re-wrote all the Christmas stories to be inoffensive and "Politically Correct"? - we learned in Sociology class, from a fairly liberal Professor, about all the studies that established a huge increase in major crime, anti-social behavior (vandalism, graffiti), and perceptions of hostility/mistrust when a city had a minority population rise over 15%.

The sentiment of hostility and crime was actually seen on both sides, not just the majority or minority.

A Professor who taught that today would probably be run out of town, or pressured to resign with a golden parachute if he had tenure.

One more bit to bust the "It's all America's internal problems, only" myth (as if 65-73% tariffs by Europe aren't enough):

Steel workers will be joined by their bosses as they march on ­Brussels demanding urgent action against cheap Chinese imports.

About 5,000 protesters will insist the European Commission ramps up tariffs on China to stop it dumping cut-price steel – one of the main reasons for thousands of job losses at Britain’s industry.

In an unprecedented move, reps from the Unite, Community and GMB unions will stand side by side with Tata Steel Europe chief Dr Karl-Ulrich Kohler and Celsa group’s boss Francisco Rubiralto.

Gareth Stace, director of trade association UK Steel, will also join the demo. He said: “I can’t remember an occasion where bosses have joined unions and employees to march on the European Union’s offices and demand more action.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/steel-workers-bosses-march-brussels-7372531

Remember, even with all the international abuse, including backstabbing by neoliberal extremists and financial fatcats and multinationals on the home front, we're still in the top 10, which is actually a testament to US Competitiveness.