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Colorado Springs is top market for homebuyers likely to move in Q3

IRVINE
August 24, 2017 7:26am

• Other hot pre-mover markets include Chicago, DC, Reno, Tampa, Jacksonville, Charleston
• Central Valley has some markets that are warm, if not hot
• “A healthy mix of access to good jobs and relatively affordable housing attracted the most interest”

Strong home sales activity is expected in the third quarter in Colorado Springs, Colorado; Chicago, Illinois; Washington, D.C.; Reno, Nevada; and Lexington, Kentucky, according to a report Thursday from real estate information company Attom Data Solutions of Irvine, using data collected from purchase loan applications on residential real estate transactions. In the Central Valley, the Bakersfield and Sacramento markets are above the national average at 144 and 105, respectively, and the Stockton-Lodi market at 99 is within one point of the national average. However, Modesto (73) and Fresno (64) are cooler markets, the report says. “Markets with a healthy mix of access to good jobs and relatively affordable housing attracted the most interest from pre-movers in the second quarter, a harbinger of strong home sales activity in the third quarter,” says Daren Blomquist, senior vice president at Attom Data Solutions. “Meanwhile in some of the nation’s hottest housing markets, there was more pre-mover interest in outlying counties further away from jobs but with more affordable homes to purchase. We see this pattern playing out in places like Denver, New York, Seattle, and Southern California.” The Attom Data Solutions Pre-Mover Housing Index is based on the ratio of homes with a “pre-mover” flag during a quarter to total homes in a given geography, indexed off the national average. An index above 100 is above the national average and indicates an above-average ratio of homes that will likely be sold in the next 30 to 90 days in a given market.The top five markets — among 122 total metro areas analyzed for the report — all posted a pre-mover index above 200, or twice the national average. Other markets in the top 10 for highest pre-mover index in the second quarter were Tampa-St. Petersburg, Florida (198); Kingsport-Bristol, Tennessee (195); Lancaster, Pennsylvania (191); Jacksonville, Florida (189); and Charleston, South Carolina (188). Among the same 122 metro areas analyzed for the report, those with the lowest pre-mover indices in the second quarter were San Francisco (31); Rochester, New York (32); Honolulu, Hawaii (36); Providence, Rhode Island (44); and Grand Rapids, Michigan (46). Out of 309 U.S. counties analyzed for the report, 189 posted a pre-mover index above the national average in the second quarter. The average June unemployment rate in those 189 counties was 4.2 percent, compared to an average unemployment rate of 4.5 percent in the 120 counties that posted a pre-mover index below the national average in the second quarter. The average percentage of wages needed to buy a median priced home in the 189 counties with an above-average pre-mover index was 38.0 percent compared to 42.0 percent of wages on average needed to buy a median-priced home in the 120 counties with a pre-mover index below the national average.

Report methodology
Using data collected from purchase loan applications on residential real estate transactions, the Attom Data Solutions Pre-Mover Housing Index is based on the ratio of homes with a “pre-mover” flag to total homes in a given geography, indexed off the national average. Any index above 100 is above the national average and indicates an above-average ratio of homes that will likely be sold in the next 30 to 90 days in a given market. Historical pre-mover data going back to Q1 2014 shows that 59 percent of homes with a pre-mover flag sell within 30 days of the estimated loan settlement date that is provided in the pre-mover data, and 76 percent sell within 90 days of that settlement date.