patrick.net

Nice. Thanks for posting.

Nice. Thanks for posting.

A lot peak housing talked yesterday for new homes due to a negative year over year print and being this late in an economic cycle with rising inventory.

Still, I fall people back on the fact that we only have 500K sales roughly in America today. That is still a recessionary data line and due to the fact that sales have missed 3 years in a row, hard to say peak housing. Even for a weak demand curve like me, if 500K was peak housing I would be shocked beyond belief because that would imply we never broke over recessionary levels even with rates under 5% since early 2011

Logan Mohtashami says

On a more positive forward guidance not in 2016 I don't believe I have seen a 41% sales growth peak metric like we saw last year where the trail end predictions were from a range of 24%-41%

So far we have negative growth demand

However, as always, headline number are too wild up and down. Need at least 4-5 reports and see revisions, revisions are key and we did miss sales estimate by 10%- 25% last year, so it's not like the entire year has very high bar on comps to beat for 2016 .

At least the deflation story is dying out in America today and wages are picking up!

The NAR is not qualified to make predictions, probably since its inception, but certainly since 2007 ;) But seriously, in the few SF neighborhoods I watch on zillow the number of properties for sale has doubled over the last month, and half of them are auctions or (pre-)foreclosures. Still with low inventory in general it could just mean that the few bad apples come out here, and the total sample size is anecdotal. But it hasn't been looking like a lot of buying pressure for the past couple of months now at the open houses I occasionally visit. I remain with my stance that you guys are too bullish here, though I am ready to revise if the stock market holds up or goes up.

mell says

The NAR is not qualified to make predictions

Speaking of which I have a meeting with the chief economist of the CAR soon.

On housing the demand curve has been so soft, that anything positive moves the needles, but existing homes showing growth and new homes even though you're working from a 500K baseline levels is struggling to show group

A lot of the housing thesis of 2013 (Housing Is In Nirvana) stage was based of escape velocity demand for new homes.

Worst call ever in this cycle for any sector, what a mess!

But .... clearly, the non sense inventory garbage that low inventory is keeping sales off has been smacked down big time even more this year.

You can't have high annual months of inventory than the housing bubble years and say demand is held back by inventory as well.

Which for new home is running at 5.8 months much higher than existing homes

Demand, Demand and Demand was always the issue in the cycle

Trail the inventory chart above and the demand curve below you guys will see what I mean about the inventory myth