patrick.net

1) Mortgage Rates and Bond Market

I predict mortgage rates will be in the range of 3.625% to 4.625% during the year. I anticipate the 10-year note will stick in the same channel as the past year with a yield range of 1.60% to 3.04%. Yes, that is 1 handle on the 10-year even with the Fed starting their rate hikes. I predict long term rates will remain low due to demographic deflation (more on this later), unless ECI wage inflation and CPI core inflation rise. In any event, I don’t expect the 10-year breaking above 3.04%. Long-term rates won’t rise in a meaningful way unless inflation picks up.

Almost there! 2.04% 10's print yesterday

CBOEtrader says

I'd wait to buy until I see TOL cross 31, then add on if it crosses the longer term lower inflection point of 32.8.

One of the reasons I pick on TOL a lot is that it was the token Buy call because the builders were going to do awesome last year, I rarely talk about stocks in general let a lone a single company.

However, all the over hype last year in housing was actually one of my 2015 Predictions, that housing bulls would always over hype the housing the story and I just had to come on CNBC and try to explain it's all a low bar dog of the dow game plan at best!

Well, the Dollar over hang is seen in the market place for sure now

But for housing, oil states impacted oil

I will let you guys know how this is going

Since I am running it I will have tons of full data on this home

Normally I never get involved in this aspect of housing but it's my parents home and my father doesn't want to use a agent

$1,895,000
Price
5
Beds
5.5
Baths5,290 Sq. Ft.
$358 / Sq. Ft.
Redfin Estimate:

Go into any Olive Garden,
P.F. Chang's Chinese Bistro,
T.G.I. Friday's, Fuddruckers.

What do they have in the bathroom?
Urinal cakes with my face on it.

I've had people come up to me
on the streets and say,
"I know you from somewhere."

"Yeah, you do.
You pissed on my face, friend."

Jason says

Jason Will

ASSHOLE!

Logan Mohtashami says

I will let you guys know how this is going

how is this going? how's your bus bench situation? why don't you let me come in on this and we'll split the commish.

landtof says

why don't you let me come in on this and we'll split the commish.

You think I am getting paid a penny on this ;-)

hahaha i know i just love quoting the "i love you, man" movie. tevin the realtor was a pretty awesome character.

That 1.60 level I always talk about in my yearly prediction almost there on 10's

Will we see break or will it hold

Logan Mohtashami says

That 1.60 level I always talk about in my yearly prediction almost there on 10's

Will we see break or will it hold

Looks like it's gonna break it in the next few weeks. The descent has been very sharp.

Strategist says

Looks like it's gonna break it in the next few weeks. The descent has been very sharp.

This is true and the world has negative rates in play

Pro for holding is that Core Inflation is rising as well as wage growth so does that off set global yield collapse...

Time will tell, this has been key level coming up, triple bottoms and tops are very rare anyway

Logan Mohtashami says

Strategist says

Looks like it's gonna break it in the next few weeks. The descent has been very sharp.

This is true and the world has negative rates in play

Pro for holding is that Core Inflation is rising as well as wage growth so does that off set global yield collapse...

That sums up what Yellen testified today.....The future of the Federal funds rate rests on the economic data that comes along.

Strategist says

.The future of the Federal funds rate rests on the economic data that comes along.

The economic cycle can't really push the growth they want, they have been wrong on their estimates for years.

Since the dollar has done so much of their work, they should, just focus on inflation at this point, all their models for growth and inflation are broken, hence why the DOTS have been a disaster this cycle

Strategist says

The descent has been very sharp.

Last week on my weekly bond market prediction I said we close under 1.87% we can test 1.60% - 1.65%, but it happened faster than I though with a 1.67% print today

Logan Mohtashami says

Strategist says

Looks like it's gonna break it in the next few weeks. The descent has been very sharp.

This is true and the world has negative rates in play

Wow. As of this second, the 10 year T Bond is at 1.56%

Logan Mohtashami says

Wow. As of this second, the 10 year T Bond is at 1.56%

This area is super key now, now the negative rate factor is in play where it wasn't before

Fun times! :-)