patrick.net

I feel sorta bad these days for GOP. I was with them a long time, and like any old girlfriend..... if I have a few too many beers I start thinking "maybe they've changed, maybe this slap upside the head will make them reflect and they will become better people". And you start wondering if you should find that phone number and get back in their lives see if you can help.

Then....I see this:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/10/24/daily-show-gop-spokesman-voter-id-laws-racist_n_4158125.html

And I realize disease goes from leaves right down to the root.

The place not to be in 2014 is a supporter of obama care

The whole " we are going to spend almost a billion dollars to set up a website to drive business to private insurance companies and fine people if they dont buy the insurance through the website even though it doesnt work" turns out wasn't such a hot idea.

Http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2013/07/17/obamacare_s_going_to_be_great.html

Wait till Obamacare really hits the fan between now and Nov '14... If I were a Dem house rep, I'd be shitting in my pants right now....

AverageBear says

Wait till Obamacare really hits the fan between now and Nov '14.

By then Voters will be disappointed that the GOP's "Shutdown" wasn't still in effect.

The success/failure of Benghazicare is peripheral.

Veteran access to war memorials will determine the upcoming election.

The government shut down will be a faded memory then AND we don't know how the debt ceiling may play out in January-if that web site isn't fixed yet we may see public sentiment shift towards only raising the debt ceiling if Obama care is delayed.

Indeed if the site is not fixed they may have no other choice

Am I the only one who believes that Hillary should be denied the Presidency because she supported the Iraq War?

Unbelievably, I am not being sarcastic. All supporters of that should be banned from public office.

I listened to an interesting story on the radio a few days ago. It was an interview concerning the discourse and in-fighting happening within the GOP. Basically the GOP at this point is heavily fractured and is acting less like a single party with a unified voice and instead more like a party made up of 3 or 4 smaller parties within. As such this means that they spend more time arguing amongst themselves than working out any cohesive plan. Its like a three-ring circus. On the other hand the Democratic party has seldom been as solidly unified and cohesive and as such they are far more efficient at getting what they want. The shutdown on part of the GOP was such an example.

Even now the Tea Party element inside the GOP is still insisting on a strategy that is little changed from the sort of game plan that led to the shutdown: No compromise and no moderation in their tone. The GOP has only themselves to blame for letting this small group become their loudest voice. This voice is a turnoff for moderate and even slightly more far-right leaning Republican voters and its absolutely a turnoff for the kinds of voters the party will need in order to win future elections.

What the GOP needs to do is realize that the current plan isn't working. Furthermore they need to depart from the typical plan they had been using, which was to go after more strictly conservative voters and instead moderate their message. Its ok to be fiscally conservative. Its ok to have concerns over the size of government and to have a belief in a strong military. But when things start to veer into socially conservative issues, witchhunts and intentional fear-mongering then that's not going to fly. The demographic that laps that stuff up is small and shrinking in size every day.

So even though I more or less dislike the GOP, it would be far better to have a GOP that has some relevance and ability to actually govern rather than simply obstruct. The world economy goes on, and the longer the GOP insists on the brand of politics its been using, the more this will cost the US economy overall. So for sheer financial sake, the GOP needs to get their act together and do it sooner than later.

edvard2 says

What the GOP needs to do is realize that the current plan isn't working.

Agree.

But I also think the Democrats need to quit their obsession with sexual politics and focus mainly on economic issues like extreme wealth disparity, poverty, etc.

I think both parties are to blame for letting "God, Guns n' Gays" dominate our politics.

freak80 says

But I also think the Democrats need to quit their obsession with sexual politics and focus mainly on economic issues like extreme wealth disparity, poverty, etc.

Not sure what you mean by that. protecting the rights of citizens to me seems like something any American politician should be automatically doing. Whenever someone or a group of Americans is not allowed to have the same access to the same rights that I have as a US citizen then that IS an issue, and absolutely worth the effort to correct that wrong.

As far as moderating the voice of the GOP, there needs to be further outreach to those within their constituency who are NOT to the extreme right. There are those on the far left as well and like those on the far right, represent a small percentage of the interests of the bulk of the voting population. Its that the Democratic party has done a better job at moderation than the GOP. Both parties need work, the GOP dramatically more so.

edvard2 says

Whenever someone or a group of Americans is not allowed to have the same access to the same rights that I have

Not sure what you mean by that. ;-)

Who doesn't have the same rights that I have?

HydroCabron says

Am I the only one who believes that Hillary should be denied the Presidency because she supported the Iraq War?

I didn't support her in the 08 primary for this reason. And her excuse was that Bush tricked her. Well, if Bush can trick her, how is she going to do against Hu Jintao and Putin?

freak80 says

Not sure what you mean by that. ;-)

Who doesn't have the same rights that I have?

If I need to explain what I meant then forget it.

I have to think that "Mainstream Republicans" who want to be seen as voices of the middle, will seriously consider switching sides. This would create a Democrat bloc in Congress the size of what there was post-WWII.

At the same time Republicans will have to abandon all of their social conservatives, in order to reformulate a progressive agenda, ahead of, not behind, Democrats.

John Bailo says

At the same time Republicans will have to abandon all of their social conservatives, in order to reformulate a progressive agenda, ahead of, not behind, Democrats.

This is the pain point the GOP has as of now. But its a bit more complicated then that.There are now numerous social conservative groups who are within the GOP constituency who are at odds with one another. As a voting segment social conservatives still have significant numbers. But at the same time this more recent hardening of the far right and its inability to foresee change is also hurting the party. This isn't news to the GOP either as seen by some of the statements made by them. The issue isn't that they don't recognize this, but how to appease not only the social conservative factions, but the fiscal and moderate ones as well.

edvard2 says

The issue isn't that they don't recognize this, but how to appease not only the social conservative factions, but the fiscal and moderate ones as well.

It seems the GOP is a "house divided against itself". The ones who call themselves Fiscal Moderates/Conservatives want absolutely nothing to do with Uncle Bigot down in NC. Meanwhile it's hard to sell a Free Market and Jobs Based private enterprise economy when the majority of people can't get a job or a raise or even afford a house.

Republicanism was based (according to the book "Free Soil, Free Labor, Free Men") on other republicans "making" new ones. So a guy comes into town, sets up a business, makes some money, buys some land, and bingo...he's part of society, living off his investment. It doesn't have any place for mega-cash hoarders who want to set up castles and employ a bunch of serfs...all of whom spend their days hampering anyone who wants to live that type of independent life by undercutting him.

So it's more economics than politics for the Republicans. If they aren't going to allow more people, of all persuasions, into the private economy, then they will erode themselves out of power.

HydroCabron says

Veteran access to war memorials will determine the upcoming election.

When do we switch to corporate sponsorship? I want vending of $3 slurpees and $10 souvenirs. I want to see Siemens and Coca-Cola logos occupying all that boring blank space.

John Bailo says

Republicans will have to abandon all of their social conservatives

A visualization of such abandonment:

I can picture no scenario under which the modern GOP can unwind the social conservatives cleanly. It is too firmly embedded at this point, and the best you could hope for is lock the crazy uncles in the attic for ONE election. The moment they get a taste of success they will be right back out proclaiming VICTORY and time to get moving as obviously they have a MANDATE from the people and heaven for theocratic agenda!

The shutdown costs were invisible dollars to most americans. Obamacare will wind up reaming everyone.

Call it Crazy says

CaptainShuddup says

AverageBear says

Wait till Obamacare really hits the fan between now and Nov '14.

By then Voters will be disappointed that the GOP's "Shutdown" wasn't still in effect.

Yep, when faced with either being fucked by Obamacare or shutting down the government, I think by Nov. 2014, the voters will think the shut down would have been a better choice...

SoftShell says

The shutdown costs were invisible dollars to most americans. Obamacare will wind up reaming everyone.

Die-hard Rushbots like you are not going to be enough to save the republican party. They dug their own grave. Get ready to see a US map that's looking a lot more blue.

SoftShell says

The shutdown costs were invisible dollars to most americans.

Invisible, my struggling entrepreneur ASS!
Businesses from tiny Mom & Pops, to AutoNation with a $6b market cap have all reported poor sales during the shutdown. Far more than the lack of federal spending, the effect this had on consumer confidence was in fact staggering.
Some economic regions of the country are affected more quickly and obviously than others; for instance tourist and service economies versus oil, agricultural, military economies. I see the same right wing arrogance in denying the effects, with the same self-serving logic of climate-change denyers who say, "It's especially cold where I am today, this proves global warming is a hoax (and the liberals and Al Gore and Pelosi Hillary Benghazi blarga blarg!)"

Homeboy says

Die-hard Rushbots like you are not going to be enough to save the republican party. They dug their own grave. Get ready to see a US map that's looking a lot more blue.

Hard to believe that anyone could fuck up worse than the current repugnant party but sad to say the Dumbcrats may have managed to shoot themselves in the dick with Obamacare.

I can't imagine a worse bill from a politcal standpoint for the dems. Most of the people who are helped by aca are people who are older, more the R demographic. Most people being forced kicking and screaming into buying health care are young and healthy, the D demographic. Headlines about millions of people getting booted off their policy next to O's promise you can keep your policy. Let the disaster of the website drag on for 6 months to a year and lots of D's are going to be looking for shelter. This is all going to play out long after the shutdown is forgotten.

I wouldn't count any D chickens just yet, unless a lot gets fixed really fast there are going to be many broken blue eggs.

Automan Empire says

Businesses from tiny Mom & Pops, to AutoNation with a $6b market cap have all reported poor sales during the shutdown. Far more than the lack of federal spending, the effect this had on consumer confidence was in fact staggering.

Some economic regions of the country are affected more quickly and obviously than others; for instance tourist and service economies versus oil, agricultural, military economies.

With the exception of tourism for which indeed a case can be made to keep government run parks and other tourist areas open, I don't see any other data points in here. "Consumer confidence" is a euphemism for "credit-card fueled spending on non-essentials", consumer confidence was super high before the 2007-2008 crash.

bob2356 says

Hard to believe that anyone could fuck up worse than the current repugnant party but sad to say the Dumbcrats may have managed to shoot themselves in the dick with Obamacare.

Maybe, maybe not. We'll have to wait and see. Certainly, if they don't fix the federal website, they will be in trouble. On the other hand, assuming they DO fix it in the next 5 months, which I think is likely, people may discover that ACA is a good thing for them.

bob2356 says

I can't imagine a worse bill from a politcal standpoint for the dems. Most of the people who are helped by aca are people who are older, more the R demographic

Not true at all. You're forgetting about the subsidies. Young people tend to make less money than old people, and therefore will be the ones to get the tax credits. Thanks to the republican smear campaign, many people don't even realize they get subsidies. When they find out, it could change their opinion.

bob2356 says

Most people being forced kicking and screaming into buying health care are young and healthy, the D demographic.

Eh, the people doing most of the kicking and screaming are the rich, because they want something to be in it for THEM. Something like 90% of the young people who don't have insurance will be eligible for subsidies. Once they discover how this is REALLY going to work, they aren't going to have anything to complain about. There's too much bullshit being passed off as news right now, like this Karl Denninger piece where he takes the average of ALL the plans being offered, even the gold plans, and claims that's what people will have to pay.

http://patrick.net/?p=1231123

He completely fails to mention that people are free to pick whatever price level they want to pick. Right now, a lot of young people wrongly think they are going to get screwed, when really they're just listening to propaganda.

bob2356 says

Headlines about millions of people getting booted off their policy next to O's promise you can keep your policy.

Yeah, well that's the propaganda I'm talking about. The repubs are making WAY too much out of that "he promised" crap. Obama meant that you won't be forced to sign up for a different policy, as in a "government" policy. He didn't mean that all insurance policies would exist exactly as they are for all eternity, especially since that was NEVER true. Yes, he exaggerated, because you CAN lose your policy if it was one of those extreme high deductible types that doesn't cover anything, which are not going to be allowed anymore. I think people are going to get over it when they realize they are getting much better coverage but still at a reasonable price.

bob2356 says

Let the disaster of the website drag on for 6 months to a year and lots of D's are going to be looking for shelter. This is all going to play out long after the shutdown is forgotten.

IF a year goes by and the website doesn't work, making it impossible for people to get health insurance, then yes the democrats will have a problem on their hands. I honestly don't see that happening.

bob2356 says

I wouldn't count any D chickens just yet, unless a lot gets fixed really fast there are going to be many broken blue eggs.

Well don't count your "Obamacare will fail" chickens yet either. Time will tell.

SoftShell says

The shutdown costs were invisible dollars to most americans.

Probably true.

But quite a few supply chains took a shit because of the backlogs in customs clearances.

An importer that I order from has said that a lot of stuff is in warehouses in the wrong state or country now. Slow down a few businesses and projects here and there, and that's a nice big hit to GDP.

The "liberal" media is so far up the GOP's ass that I doubt they'll be held accountable.