patrick.net

Bigsby says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

robertoaribas says

In fact, I just took the FIRST listing from your "data set" there dipstick...

and I searched for the phone number...

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3977360059.html

So you don't think this first ad is real?

Plenty of spam when you go to the page before.

Maybe in your brower the page before is something illegal though. Not in mine. ;)

robertoaribas says

A craigslist ad is only worthwhile on the first couple of pages; people will post the same damn place every 8 hours under different emails...

Here is the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and last ad from the 4th page (ad 400 and up). All spam?

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3983095245.html

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3969858768.html

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3983063078.html

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3978927200.html

Interesting theory you have.

Same thing on the 3rd page (ad 300, 301, 302, and 399). Spam?

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3986522205.html

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3986502313.html

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3986369233.html

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3983095912.html

Wait, the last one is not in Dublin/Pleasanton/Livermore. It is in Stockton, so I got you now. 1 out of 8 means 100% spam. Math is hard for me sometime. Sorry

robertoaribas says

that's right, call me a liar when the problem is your too damn stupid to read... way to go!

I just re-read and stand by my statements. Quotes from you.

Golden Boy: "A craigslist ad is only worthwhile on the first couple of pages; people will post the same damn place every 8 hours under different emails..."

Golden Boy:"craigslist is full of spam"

full equals 1/8 I guess to you.

Golden Boy:"you posted a list of 50 rentals and 100% of them were spam..."

there is that 100%. It was so long ago you might have forgotten

Golden Boy:"In fact, I just took the FIRST listing from your "data set" there dipstick...
and I searched for the phone number..."

I asked you if the first ad was spam, and I guess that made you back-pedal pretty fast.

You make it too easy golden boy.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

robertoaribas says

A craigslist ad is only worthwhile on the first couple of pages; people will post the same damn place every 8 hours under different emails...

Here is the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and last ad from the 4th page (ad 400 and up). All spam?

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3983095245.html

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3969858768.html

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3983063078.html

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3978927200.html

Interesting theory you have.

How exactly does that prove the accuracy of your initial claim? Using Craigslist to make claims about how many rentals there are is moronic no matter how much you want to play silly buggers. And we all know how much you enjoy doing that.

Bigsby says

How exactly does that prove the accuracy of your initial claim?

Please only ask questions that are helpful to the class. We can discuss these complex matters one-on-one later so we don't hold everybody back.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Bigsby says

How exactly does that prove the accuracy of your initial claim?

Please only ask questions that are helpful to the class. We can discuss these complex matters one-on-one later so we don't hold everybody back.

So you admit your initial claims were bullshit. I see a pattern in your posts.

robertoaribas says

Many of these are spam, I verified that when the very first ad, the contact phone number was the same for over 100 other ads. that is an agent posting every rental on the mls, to get business.

Complete lie here again. Wow

Bigsby says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Bigsby says

How exactly does that prove the accuracy of your initial claim?

Please only ask questions that are helpful to the class. We can discuss these complex matters one-on-one later so we don't hold everybody back.

So you admit your initial claims were bullshit. I see a pattern in your posts.

I admit that you are having trouble following.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Bigsby says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Bigsby says

How exactly does that prove the accuracy of your initial claim?

Please only ask questions that are helpful to the class. We can discuss these complex matters one-on-one later so we don't hold everybody back.

So you admit your initial claims were bullshit. I see a pattern in your posts.

I admit that you are having trouble following.

Yes, it's difficult to keep track of all the bullshit you post.

Geebus.

RFHTC is bringing up the topic of "rising rental supply", and the thread has devolved to "loser" "idiot" "liar" dumb ass"

There are literally 10 other threads you can go into to shit on each other.

Can we at least try to discuss whether rental supply is indeed increasing, and whether rents are decreasing in his local area?

Goran_K says

Geebus.

RFHTC is bringing up the topic of "rising rental supply", and the thread has devolved to "loser" "idiot" "liar" dumb ass"

There are literally 10 other threads you can go into to shit on each other.

Can we at least try to discuss whether rental supply is indeed increasing, and whether rents are decreasing in his local area?

Sure, as long as he quits pretending Craigslist is an accurate barometer.

Bigsby says

Goran_K says

Geebus.

RFHTC is bringing up the topic of "rising rental supply", and the thread has devolved to "loser" "idiot" "liar" dumb ass"

There are literally 10 other threads you can go into to shit on each other.

Can we at least try to discuss whether rental supply is indeed increasing, and whether rents are decreasing in his local area?

Sure, as long as he quits pretending Craigslist is an accurate barometer.

Please present your data if you have any. I am presenting what I feel is relevant and all you and Golden Boy can do is attack it without anything to back up your claims. Maybe a good strategy when you run for office in this country, but it doesn't make the grade with me.

robertoaribas says

i didn't backpedal at all, you illiterate lying dumbass. my 100% claim is up above,

At least you finally admit to saying 100%. It is a giant step forward for you. Congrats.

In a little over 4hrs we have gone from 592 to 616!!! This is coming fast folks. Even faster than I thought. Jeez Weez.

Dublin/Pleasanton/Livermore:
http://sfbay.craigslist.org/search/apa/eby?query=&zoomToPosting=&srchType=A&minAsk=&maxAsk=&bedrooms=&housing_type=&nh=53

And for San Ramon/Danville we just shot from 189 to 205!! in 4hrs

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/search/apa/eby?query=&zoomToPosting=&srchType=A&minAsk=&maxAsk=&bedrooms=&housing_type=&nh=52

So many rentals out there now with more to come...

robertoaribas says

Many of these are spam

Many as in 3 out of 600? I guess you could be right then. 597/600 is a total bogus point. I mean that is nearly all spam. Especially the ones after the first page right? Maybe my sampling on page 3, and 4 was just complete luck on my account. It could happen. Statistically, it would mean I should go buy a lotto ticket, but it could happen. Go sample a few, maybe you will see that 100% are spam to you.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

And for San Ramon/Danville we just shot from 189 to 205!! in 4hrs

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/search/apa/eby?query=&zoomToPosting=&srchType=A&minAsk=&maxAsk=&bedrooms=&housing_type=&nh=52

So many rentals out there now with more to come...

RentingForHalfTheCost says

In a little over 4hrs we have gone from 592 to 616!!! This is coming fast folks. Even faster than I thought. Jeez Weez.

Dublin/Pleasanton/Livermore:

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/search/apa/eby?query=&zoomToPosting=&srchType=A&minAsk=&maxAsk=&bedrooms=&housing_type=&nh=53

OK. Let's just say for sake of argument that those numbers are accurate. As I do not know those areas nor their population, what would constitute a normal number of rentable properties in those areas?

seeing the stuff that RFHTC has pulled in the past, I wouldn't be surprised if 300 of the craigslist listings are his own fake listings. haha.

Truly the ultimate troll, and I actually say that as a compliment.

Bigsby says

OK. Let's just say for sake of argument that those numbers are accurate. As I do not know those areas nor their population, what would constitute a normal number of rentable properties in those areas?

Not sure about any normal state, as I don't believe there is one in the SFBA. However, my point is that the number of rentals are growing considerably. Lets see what next week brings, and next month. If it stabilizes then all good, if it keep growing 2x each month then boom. The landlord is holding a deuce and seven. Not even suited.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Bigsby says

OK. Let's just say for sake of argument that those numbers are accurate. As I do not know those areas nor their population, what would constitute a normal number of rentable properties in those areas?

Not sure about any normal state, as I don't believe there is one in the SFBA. However, my point is that the number of rentals are growing considerably. Lets see what next week brings, and next month. If it stabilizes then all good, if it keep growing 2x each month then boom. The landlord is holding a deuce and seven. Not even suited.

You just posted a figure, a Craigslist figure no less, and used that to underpin your argument. You now can't even say whether these numbers are low, average, high, or a record compared to the norms for these areas. Do you not see a problem?

Bigsby says

You just posted a figure, a Craigslist figure no less, and used that to underpin your argument. You now can't even say whether these numbers are low, average, high, or a record compared to the norms for these areas. Do you not see a problem?

I have never seen the Pleasanton/Dublin/Livermore area have anything higher than 300 rentals from craiglist. Then all of a sudden mid to end of July and now continuing in August things are exploding. I really don't see any problem. You can decide that the data is irrelevant to you, but it means something to me.

robertoaribas says

there were 32 people at the thai restaurant near my house for lunch. Clearly the economy is getting better!

Could be true. If you sampled all the restaurant in the area and had historical data to compare, then you might have something. You seem to be getting sharper.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Bigsby says

You just posted a figure, a Craigslist figure no less, and used that to underpin your argument. You now can't even say whether these numbers are low, average, high, or a record compared to the norms for these areas. Do you not see a problem?

I have never seen the Pleasanton/Dublin/Livermore area have anything higher than 300 rentals from craiglist. Then all of a sudden mid to end of July and now continuing in August things are exploding. I really don't see any problem. You can decide that the data is irrelevant to you, but it means something to me.

And right now it mean tens of thousands of dollars in my short on the home builders.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Bigsby says

You just posted a figure, a Craigslist figure no less, and used that to underpin your argument. You now can't even say whether these numbers are low, average, high, or a record compared to the norms for these areas. Do you not see a problem?

I have never seen the Pleasanton/Dublin/Livermore area have anything higher than 300 rentals from craiglist. Then all of a sudden mid to end of July and now continuing in August things are exploding. I really don't see any problem. You can decide that the data is irrelevant to you, but it means something to me.

You just stating a figure with no support hardly fills me with confidence. What is the population of the area? And how many rentals are listed on other sites that don't suffer from the Craigslist issues?

RentingForHalfTheCost says

robertoaribas says

there were 32 people at the thai restaurant near my house for lunch. Clearly the economy is getting better!

Could be true. If you sampled all the restaurant in the area and had historical data to compare, then you might have something. You seem to be getting sharper.

And yet...

I look at this graph as all the colored area that pushed it above $10 back in 2011 is artificial. It will adjust back to $10 again. Already on its way and fast.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=DHI&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

robertoaribas says

bigsby, he is a serial liar; you have more patience than me!

I'd be selling now if I had properties in Phoenix. Like no other seller. Just saying... There is nothing to carry the artificial real estate market further. The gig is up. If you hold, then be prepared to lose all the vapor wealth you brag about on here.

I am posting now that I am short DHI. Lets see what happens from here.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

I am posting now that I am short DHI. Lets see what happens from here.

Very detailed.

Bigsby says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

I am posting now that I am short DHI. Lets see what happens from here.

Very detailed.

Okay, I really don't want to talk in dollars, because the market has done me very well since 2007. Lets say I have almost 10% of my worth riding on shorting the housing market right now. The other 90 is mostly in cash or equivalent. I expect that 10% to match my cash in about 6 months when this shit finally comes to roost!!! Cha-ching

What? No comeback from the housing bulls. Silence is sometimes golden.

robertoaribas says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

What? No comeback from the housing bulls. Silence is sometimes golden.

I collected all my rent again this month. that is all the come back I need.

Nice! No medical bills this time. Keep that car running...

RentingForHalfTheCost says

robertoaribas says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

What? No comeback from the housing bulls. Silence is sometimes golden.

I collected all my rent again this month. that is all the come back I need.

Nice! No medical bills this time. Keep that car running...

Keep the deletes coming...

Bigsby says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

robertoaribas says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

What? No comeback from the housing bulls. Silence is sometimes golden.

I collected all my rent again this month. that is all the come back I need.

Nice! No medical bills this time. Keep that car running...

Keep the deletes coming...

Before you made some sense, you were completely wrong, but it was not insane. Now you just talk gibberish!

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Bigsby says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

robertoaribas says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

What? No comeback from the housing bulls. Silence is sometimes golden.

I collected all my rent again this month. that is all the come back I need.

Nice! No medical bills this time. Keep that car running...

Keep the deletes coming...

Before you made some sense, you were completely wrong, but it was not insane. Now you just talk gibberish!

Which word(s) did you not understand?

In Sonoma County I notice a lot more larger expensive homes are going on the rental market. I'm used to seeing shitty 1-2 bd mostly where I am (whine country) but the pickings are getting larger and fancier. Prices are levelling off and maybe even dropping a bit. I sense a new crop of landlords has bought into this market.
Just my non scientific observation. I've been checking Craigslist every day for the last 3 years for a decent rental.

Also, quite a few of the listings have been "remodeled".

If you read the majority of articles about the all cash investors and investment firms, they all said that they are planning to hold onto the purchases and then sell in five to ten years, and renting their purchases. Maybe it has begun, but it will happen eventually based on what these articles regarding these purchases have stated, I.e. Blackstone....so we shall see....

retire59 says

If you read the majority of articles about the all cash investors and investment firms, they all said that they are planning to hold onto the purchases and then sell in five to ten years, and renting their purchases. Maybe it has begun, but it will happen eventually based on what these articles regarding these purchases have stated, I.e. Blackstone....so we shall see....

Very true. However, people's actions and words have a weak relationship at the best of times. Once people fear that they will lose money, all bets are off. Take a look at this video. I love these parts

"keeping up with the Jones"

"One way of another the property price will still go up".

http://money.cnn.com/video/news/2013/08/09/n-chinese-homebuyers.cnnmoney/index.html

I see a huge potential problem with all this glut. It is driven by the premise of fundamentals don't matter, prices always go up. Even though we have seen that to not be true so recently.