patrick.net

When our work force is smaller, sure jobless claims will go down. Just common sense. Still have an anemic work force though. Considering the promised entitlements that are only growing by the month, things are only going to get worse. I predict a war at some point to distract us from our financial doom. In the next 5-7 years.

OK I'll be honest, under Obama, the future of IT developers and support staff, and all Medical related industries have NEVER been more promising.

We get to make mad money in the next 20 years, just to iron out the kinks in all of the legislation that has been crammed through in the last 5 years.
The rest of you Assholes with masters degrees in Lithuanian Lesbian studies, need to get busy and make us a Goddman cheese burger, making money is tiring work, and we gets hongry!

What kind of jobs are out there? Let me run through a list.

1. Attorneys (JD). Unless you are from HYS, your chance of eke out is very slim. Even if you are HYS JD, you gonna be a slave, working 80 hrs a week, looking for billable hours at top tier law firms. Many clients (of these top tier law firms) have wised up and started outsourcing much of work like document review, patent filing, research to companies like evaluserve, etc.

For more on a typical lawyer, check this board http://www.shitlawjobs.com

2. MBA. Unless you are from HSW, your chance of getting ahead or even a secure job is very very slim. Many call Wharton as a MBA factory nowadays. Just go to quora.com and see some of the profiles of these HSW guys. You can see what's going on. Sure, these HSW guys may have fancy titles at many places, but don't expect them to retire 'securely' with all baggage like trophy wife, a home in expensive neighborhood, tuitions for private schools, etc.

Ordinary MBAs are just useless; and every college/university has some kind of executive/evening/morning MBA program taught by part time instructors. Everyone in the corporate world (from walmart to netapp) want to a leg up and sign for one such program. Just go to Santa Clara university MBA program to see such types!!

3. Bachelors in business. This is a dominant major every college offers. When you walk into enterprise or hertz rental next time, ask that guy at the counter where did he graduate from and what his major was. 90% of the time it is BS/BA in business from some cal state or even some UC system.

4. Accounting. You may get hired by top 4 accounting firms. Don't expect to survive there after 2 years. They want slave labor there; that's why these firms hire in bulk because of the attrition rate.

5. Wall Street/finance sector jobs. Even if you are a top tier school like HYPSM (for undergrad), HSW(for MBA), you try to move up. On wall street, you eat what you kill. Not many opportunities to kill, unless you are part of the established gangs like GS, etc. If you are an associate at GS, don't expect much, you will be forced out in 3 years or you will move to other firms.

Look at those who got busted for insider trading. Most of them went to elite MBA programs( Mathew Marthoma a Stanford MBA).

6. Insurance agents: here, you see all those "start your insurance agency from your home" types. Nowadays, they need a degree for that. Insurance agents are dime a dozen. Saturated.

7. Realtors(r): yeah, they are too many. Degree and good looks required.

8. Sales (cars, appliances, tvs at frys, bestbuy). Not many survive in this profession. I was on, could not survive. You need to generate money for your employers in terms of extras like warranties.

9. Sales (kirby vacuum door to door, etc). Open your pennysaver, you see such opportunities. I went to kirby meeting once when I was desperate to get a job. I left the meeting halfway

10.Security guard. Another shitty job requiring guard card from the state. Shitty pay, odd shifts. Many new immigrants tend to work in this sector because it is better than working for walmart or frys, which pays just the minimum wage. Security guards get paid $2 to $4 more than the minimum wage. There is a competition to get a security guard job if you don't want to work the grave shift.

11. Customer service (walmart, target, frys, etc). These jobs are toughest to get because you are competing against 100's of others like you.

12. MD (doctors). Sure, you can make a decent living. Don't expect to become a multimillionaire like your father, a MD, who came from India like 30 years ago.

13. Landscaping: yes, there is a competition. If you are a small time landscaper, don't hire any. If you hire someone, expect the latter to steal your customers.

14. Plumbing, electrician: Many tell people to get into trades. I don't think think tradesman have a bright future. If you are independent, you should find many non-corporate apartment complex owners. Otherwise, you gotta work for corporate plumbing companies like roto rooter. Companies like roto rooter want people without prior experience;however, when you apply, they don't even call you.

15. AGriculture jobs: seasonal, back breaking. So, you get labor from the south of the border.

16. Meat industry: you have competition from low wage labor

17. Service jobs in independent businesses: go to any small restaurant, you see many low wage labor.

18. Fast food: it is tough to get a job in this field too.

19. Government jobs: you gotta know how to get one, otherwise it is tough

20. Software/Hardware/Info tech: If you are a good software developer, you are in demand. But this industry has many semi-development, project mgmt, jobs. If you are one of those project management, run-an-ETL-report-everyday jobs, don't expect much once you loose your job.

Large companies tend to have more semi-dev, non-dev IT jobs. However, there are not many large public companies besides ATT, Comcast, HP, IBM, etc.

Don't expect an Indian manager to hire you (as an employee or as an contractor) in many semi-dev and non-dev positions.

21. Construction jobs: seasonal. Many public construction companies use contractors, who in turn use cheap labor from you-know-what.

-----------------------------------------------------------

The ground reality is like as I described above. Yet we have elites telling the public to go to college to get a degree, as if a degree gets a job.

The real problem: not many decent jobs out there!!!

robertoaribas says

jobless claims come in at new low

In unrelated news, most people have been out of work so long that unemployment benefits have ran out.

raindoctor says

The real problem: not many decent jobs out there!!!

You were disliked for posting the best account of the state of employment that I've seen yet. And to be honest your assessment in most verticals is more optimistic than I would put it.

CaptainShuddup says

You were disliked for posting the best account of the state of employment that I've seen yet. And to be honest your assessment in most verticals is more optimistic than I would put it.

I am not optimistic either. I see a pattern in these jobs: coveted jobs are far and few between. Getting these coveted jobs is very tough: that's why you see the rat race among India and chinese parents in the states. These coveted jobs are made to sound like 'you just need an MBA, JD, some other paper'!!

Let me give you an analogy. Imagine that 90% of fire and police jobs don't come with any benefits at all, and yet people would line up for these jobs. 10 % of police and fire jobs with generous benefits are with vey very wealthy cities like Atherton, Palo Alto, etc. This would set up a two tier job structure: public jobs with wealthy cities vs those with other cities, and every one is trying to game the system to get a job with those 10% wealthy cities.

In corporate world, this 90-10 job split happened long time ago. Working through way up does NOT work. Getting those 10% jobs is, to a large extent, depends on who one is born to. If one is a kid of those Indian and chinese IT guy in the valley, one is disappointed, but these sucker parents don't realize it. These sucker parents rationalize their rat-racing behavior other ways: 'oh, I wanna keep my kids busy; that's why I am sending them to Cupertino High; if I send my kids to other schools, they won't be busy and end up doing things I don't like'.

Hostess is hiring...

raindoctor says

Construction jobs:

The out of work list for Operating Engineers Union O.C./ L.A. has grown quite significantly in the first quarter...the stats just keep getting spun more and more

CaptainShuddup says

you Assholes with masters degrees in Lithuanian Lesbian studies

Heh...don't knock it till you've tried it, Cap'n.

raindoctor says

coveted jobs

Reads like an oxymoron; it's like saying 'most favorite tooth to have drilled.'

Yet somehow we have a critical shortage of "highly trained" STEM employees - so much so we need to grant more H1B visas to meet the need.

raindoctor,
Don't rain on the Bulls parade. I thought minimum wage,30hr/wk. jobs would save the economy.

raindoctor says

These coveted jobs are made to sound like 'you just need an MBA, JD, some other paper'!!

I like making a point to let prospective employers know that I dropped out in the 10th grade. So that way after they get back to me. (After they've interviewed the lot with a degree, but they don't own a computer with a development environment installed, and the newest version of Development tools they own is the Education Edition they got with their courseware 5 years ago.) They know just what they are getting.

But I also make a point to only interview with people that will recognize the difference.

robertoaribas says

Dan8267 says

robertoaribas says

jobless claims come in at new low

In unrelated news, most people have been out of work so long that unemployment benefits have ran out.

this was the data for NEW jobless claims... but thanks for playing!

About 339,000 people filed for their first week of unemployment benefits last week, down from 355,000 a week earlier, the Labor Department said Thursday.

That is even more of a meaningless statistic.

CaptainShuddup says

OK I'll be honest, under Obama, the future of IT developers and support staff, and all Medical related industries have NEVER been more promising.

We get to make mad money in the next 20 years, just to iron out the kinks in all of the legislation that has been crammed through in the last 5 years.

Then why the fuck are you wasting so much time on this website? I know lots of talented IT guys and they turn down 90% of gigs they are offered. They most definitely don't have the time to waste posting their "thoughts" all day, every day.

rooemoore says

talented IT

That's funny...

You don't "Have Christmas" it just is Christmas.
Look they ask for shit to get done in the time frame they give, and I just deliver. They don't care who I have to sort out in between.

robertoaribas says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Considering the promised entitlements that are only growing by the month, things are only going to get worse.

more made up crap I see... Well, I guess we all do what we do best.

You should read up on how much entitlements are a part of our continue deficit problems at municipal, state and national level. I can't be blamed for yours ignorance.

robertoaribas says

Dan8267 says

That is even more of a meaningless statistic.

actually, anything under 400K in new claims for unemployment is considered to mean an improving job market, anything over means a job market getting worse.

But nevertheless, the lowest number is over 6 years is certainly a good report.

How can you have an improving job market with little to no job growth? Low new claims just shows us that companies are not laying off (good news) and more and more people are dropping out of the workforce (bad news). The Elephant in the room is that we are not creating any new jobs and our population is grow while growing older at the same time. All very bad news to me. But keep hoping dude.

robertoaribas says

said were true, we wouldn't be seeing increasing employment over these past 3 years;

Looks pretty anaemic to me. We are not even close to what is needed in job growth to keep the percentage of employed constant in this nation. Remember, that more people come into the work force every day. Now you are trying to tell us that jobs growth is great! Jeez.

http://www.deptofnumbers.com/employment/states/

robertoaribas says

I get it. You completely screwed up analyzing the housing market.

A house is a lower percentage of my wealth today. So, I hope to keep screwing up. In the end we are all playing with Fiat money anyway.

Great jobs picture in this country. Lets go all in! Not.

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2013/01/04/why-to-worry-about-the-2013-job-market-in-5-charts

Funny, how you have to go to foreign media to get the truth sometimes.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9974327/US-jobs-growth-stalls-reaction.html

robertoaribas says

rentingwithhalfabrain: you spent all that time searching for press that says what I predicted last year:

tepid growth in 2013, due to sequestration, and european headwinds, followed by a much better 2014 and 2015.

I've seen nothing to change my analysis yet.

Oh, so now you are talking about a prediction of things getting better. I thought your OP was crowing about how good it was getting now. My mistake. I'll keep looking for the turn-around you predict. Thanks

CaptainShuddup says

The rest of you Assholes with masters degrees in Lithuanian Lesbian studies, need to get busy and make us a Goddman cheese burger, making money is tiring work, and we gets hongry!

I can think of better uses for a woman with a masters degree in Lithuanian Lesbian studies.

robertoaribas says

tepid growth in 2013, due to sequestration, and european headwinds, followed by a much better 2014 and 2015.

"due to sequestration"... you mean the anti-business, anti-corporate attitude that pervades the govt today. Where is the "pro-growth" measures being championed by the left wing administration which will fuel private companies to invest into capital goods which create jobs.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Funny, how you have to go to foreign media to get the truth sometimes.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9974327/US-jobs-growth-stalls-reaction.html

the most important quote... and why fewer jobless numbers... many that dropped out and are not participating in the workforce. of course Roberto is ignoring the low participation rate in the economy...

"The one thing consistent with the lackluster recovery we've been having is that discouraged workers don't seem to be coming back into the labor market. The participation rate continued to slide in this report. By this point in the cycle, it should be inching higher. So the concern lately is about whether the U.S. is heading for a slowdown."

Maybe more people are simply going straight to disability...

http://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/dibStat.html

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/03/disability-insurance-americas-124-billion-secret-welfare-program/274302/

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323511804578298151374531578.html

Signs of the problem surfaced Friday, in a dismal jobs report that showed U.S. labor force participation rates falling last month to the lowest levels since 1979, the wrong direction for an economy that instead needs new legions of working men and women to drive growth and sustain a baby boomer generation headed to retirement.

The unemployment rate in Friday's report fell to a four-year low of 7.6%, which most times signals job growth. This time it reflected workers leaving the workforce, a problem that could persist: Economists say relatively few people are likely to trade their disability checks for paychecks, in part because the program doesn't give much incentive to leave.

robertoaribas says

because it has NOTHING to do with new applications for unemployment.

Only people who were employed can apply for unemployment.

If divorce rates drop, claiming less people are trying to get married would be equally irrelevant.

like i said... totally ignoring the participation rate.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/06/labor-force-participation-rate_n_3028135.html

The falling participation rate tarnished the only apparent good news in the jobs report the Labor Department released Friday: The unemployment rate dropped to a four-year low of 7.6 percent in March from 7.7 in February.

People without a job who stop looking for one are no longer counted as unemployed. That's why the U.S. unemployment rate dropped in March despite weak hiring. If the 496,000 who left the labor force last month had still been looking for jobs, the unemployment rate would have risen to 7.9 percent in March.

"Unemployment dropped for all the wrong reasons," says Craig Alexander, chief economist with TD Bank Financial Group. "It dropped because more workers stopped looking for jobs. It signaled less confidence and optimism that there are jobs out there."

The participation rate peaked at 67.3 percent in 2000, reflecting an influx of women into the work force. It's been falling steadily ever since.

The business of "number of jobs" is useless, unless we know the average income of these newly added jobs. These two factors (number of jobs and average income) provides a clue to the so-called recovery; in other words, we can figure out how much these jobs would add to the aggregate demand.

Top Line Employment Looks Good, But Full Time Job Growth Is Falling Apart Since QE3

“Once again this month, the actual data was smack on the trend of the past year. The number of jobs has been growing at virtually the same rate for the past 18 months, around 1.5% per year, give or take a tenth or two. The growth in jobs is tracking population growth, therefore there has not been, much reduction in the unemployment rate.”

“Here’s where we get to the problem. Full time employment growth is badly lagging total employment. Part time jobs are nice, and for many that hold them, they are a lifeline, but the important metric here is full time jobs. Without those, we’re dead. ”

“The 10 year average increase in full time jobs for February was 216,000, pulled down by a big negative number in 2009. Excluding that year, the average would have been 336,000. This year’s gain was short of that average and was better than only 4 of those 10 years, as well as weaker than the last 2 years. This is bad news. The anecdotal reports that there aren’t enough good jobs out there are supported by these numbers. QE3-4 is not helping. The market did better last year when the Fed was in a QE pause.”

http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2013/03/11/top-line-employment-looks-good-but-full-time-job-growth-is-falling-apart-since-qe3/

The stagnation behind the excellent jobs report

“All is not entirely sweetness and light, though, as Brad DeLong and many others have noted. The number of multiple jobholders rose by 340,000 this month, to 7.26 million — a rise larger than the headline rise in payrolls. Which means that one way of looking at this report is to say that all of the new jobs created were second or third jobs, going to people who were already employed elsewhere. Meanwhile, the number of people unemployed for six months or longer went up by 89,000 people this month, to 4.8 million, and the average duration of unemployment also rose, to 36.9 weeks from 35.3 weeks.

In terms of the economy, it’s not good enough to simply increase employment and decrease unemployment, if the proportion of people with jobs isn’t actually going up.”

http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2013/03/08/the-stagnation-behind-the-excellent-jobs-report/

If there were absolutely no jobs, and everyone stopped looking, the unemployment rate would be zero. Looking at the reported unemployment rate without also looking at the labor force participation rate may result in erroneous conclusions.

Maybe this will help answer some questions:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Positive GDP is quite compatible with a decreasing standard of living, increasing food stamp roles, increasing disability roles, and flat or decr3easing median income.

So when one says the economy is or will be improving, you cannot merely cite current or expected future GDP. It can be an irrelevant metric.

Call it Crazy says

Do you EVER stop crying about wealth distribution???

Why don't you stop wasting your time posting here and go become a 1%'er.......

I'm not worried about myself or my family--we're doing fine. I'd like the US to have a healthy economy and it can't happen at current disparity levels.

robertoaribas says

this is not actually uncommon in the early stages of recovery. Companies start by highering cheaper part time employees

That would be great if it were true. The numbers I see say that companies are trading full time jobs for multiple part time jobs to avoid Obamacare mandates. It's nice you are so desperate for good news, but I don't see anything to cheer about. Labour force participation is back to where it was in the mid 70's when large numbers of women were entering the labour force that would have not worked in the economy of the 50's or 60's.

bob2356 says

robertoaribas says

this is not actually uncommon in the early stages of recovery. Companies start by highering cheaper part time employees

That would be great if it were true. The numbers I see say that companies are trading full time jobs for multiple part time jobs to avoid Obamacare mandates. It's nice you are so desperate for good news, but I don't see anything to cheer about. Labour force participation is back to where it was in the mid 70's when large numbers of women were entering the labour force that would have not worked in the economy of the 50's or 60's.

now now.. lets no talk about people exiting the workforce being discouraged when unable to find a job. no point speaking of robertos comments being even slightly biased.

the POD is good.. be part of the POD...