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What is driving the low real estate inventory we are seeing right now?


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2012 Apr 23, 3:19am   23,615 views  61 comments

by BayArea   ➕follow (1)   💰tip   ignore  

Hi folks,

In recent weeks, there have been many references to a decrease in supply in the Bay Area market.

I'd like to explore this a bit. What's driving this and when can we expect it to change?

Is there anything currently cooking with re-finalization of the HARP program? We know that foreclosure sells follow foreclosure starts which follow foreclosure notifications. Has there been some slow-down recently in one of these processes? Is it simply because the first wave of the folks walking away from under-water situations has struck? What can be said about any shadow inventories? Are banks strategically controlling the rate at which REOs are coming on the market and foreclosures are making it to the court-house steps?

I'm looking forward to hearing your theories on this and of course, data is always appreciated!

http://www.mercurynews.com/saratoga/ci_20411232/lack-housing-inventory-is-problem-bay-area

http://www.zielinskiteam.com/2012/04/09/inventory-in-the-bay-area-has-fallen-nearly-40-percent/

#housing

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50   freak80   2012 Apr 26, 3:32am  

GUAB says

AC isn't bad here if you have the correct facing view. I have a south facing view and my AC bill is only $150/month for a 2500 sq ft home -- in dead of summer. Now if you have a west facing view with windows -- you'll be double.

Paint your house white. Including the roof.

Or put solar panels on the roof and use the electricity to run the AC.

51   GUAB   2012 Apr 26, 3:52am  

LOL that would be hilarious.

How quick do you think my HOA would be on my ass? God I would love to read how they would word that letter.

Solar panels aren't cost effective here yet in my opinion.

52   jaz5   2012 Apr 26, 4:08am  

it's not entirely true that one does not need AC in California, it does get pretty hot here as well.. sometimes well over 90 in Summer and I have to use the AC and this is in Irvine...I do think that one would need it a lot more in Phoenix but the difference is not 100%, perhaps only 50% more. There is no doubt that one comes out way ahead financially living in PHX, the only thing I would miss living there would be the ocean.

The other thing is that PHX has dry heat so it's not as bad as was mentioned earlier.

53   jaz5   2012 Apr 26, 4:14am  

2300sqft home in Northwood, Irvine (an upmarket area comparable to Scottsdale) would be around $800,000, property taxes with Mello Roos around 2% per year so $16,000/yr ;) Insanity? Yes :)

54   GUAB   2012 Apr 26, 4:27am  

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/77-Grant-Irvine-CA-92620/25515720_zpid/

Doesn't seem too terrible. 2500 sq ft, nice finishes. taxes are 8k/yr. asking 799 but zillow thinks 710.

55   freak80   2012 Apr 26, 4:48am  

GUAB says

How quick do you think my HOA would be on my ass? God I would love to read how they would word that letter.
Solar panels aren't cost effective here yet in my opinion.

Gotta love the HOA nazis. Then again, it keeps people from throwing car parts on the front lawn (like they do around here where I live).

Yeah solar is probably too expensive anyway. Fire up the coal plants!

56   GUAB   2012 Apr 26, 5:39am  

Exactly. Burn it til there's nothing left and we're forced into solar.

57   freak80   2012 Apr 26, 6:49am  

GUAB says

Exactly. Burn it til there's nothing left and we're forced into solar.

But by then all the starfish will be dead from the ocean acidification from all the extra CO2. ;-)

58   GUAB   2012 Apr 26, 7:00am  

More house decorations!

59   jaz5   2012 Apr 26, 7:03am  

@GUAB, $8k taxes are probably just base property taxes,

the newer homes have an additional 1% assessed as Mello Roos. Looks like this house was built in 1978 so it has no Mello Roos but it's still a 35 year old home.

60   GUAB   2012 Apr 26, 7:13am  

Oh ok, I didn't know there was an additional tax.

61   freak80   2012 Apr 26, 1:39pm  

GUAB says

More house decorations!

But according to your picture, you yourself will become a house decoration! ;)

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