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ROK a good buy?


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2012 Mar 3, 8:41am   3,573 views  6 comments

by tdeloco   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

I'm thinking of investing in manufacturing companies, such as Rockwell Automation; ticker is ROK.

I just listend to NPR Planet Money: China's Giant Pool Of Money, March 2, 2012 episode. Basically, China is diversifying away from its $3.2T Reserves. That's very good news for our exports.

I started a previous thread called Outgrowing U.S. debt. I outlined 3 things that matter in regards to debt:
1) Inflation vs Deflation
2) Balance of Trade (surplus vs deficit)
3) Debt (Liquidation vs More Debt)

GDP only indicates the amount of money paid goods and services. It also means how much money is taxable. Other than that, it's not a good indicator of prosperity. In fact, we've been running on debt for awhile. Inflation also causes the GDP to go up.

Why is debt a problem? A quote from the article posted in the thread Secular deleveraging for the next decade or more:

Debt turns cancerous when it reaches 80-100% of GDP for governments, 90% for corporations and 85% for households

Once we really start exporting, we wouldn't have to inflate as much in order to bring down our debt to manageable levels. We don't need to pay off our debts. We just need it to be lower and manageable.

Some caveats:
1) China needs to reduce its reserves slowly. If they sell quickly, our interest rates will go up along with our debt payments
2) $3.2T of money coming home will cause inflation (or is this already accounted for as part of M3)

Comments 1 - 6 of 6        Search these comments

1   clambo   2012 Mar 3, 12:53pm  

AAPL

2   RentingForHalfTheCost   2012 Mar 3, 1:16pm  

Short Netflixs and GroupOn and buy a house in Cupertino for 400K in 2013. Then after 2014 short Apple to death and watch it collapse before your eyes. Once you are up to millions then start buying up the distressed homes in the BA and retire as a genius and a BA icon. How the hell did you predict all them events to that degree of accuracy. Incredible.

3   uomo_senza_nome   2012 Mar 4, 4:51am  

tdeloco says

That's very good news for our exports.

tdeloco says

2) Balance of Trade (surplus vs deficit)

Is your proposition that by devaluing the dollar, we are going to narrow the trade deficit?

I'm not so sure.

Please consider:
http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/11/moneyness.html

The USG had endured 30 years of foreign-supported trade deficit and developed an addiction to free stuff. To make matters worse, much of its productive capacity had been shipped overseas during this time period. The US private sector could not possibly support the USG’s addiction to real goods.

The nation’s productive capacity was not even sufficient to satisfy domestic demand, much less to support USG demand. Government knew that it was not only economically impossible but also politically impossible to impose taxes at a sufficient level to move resources to the public sector to satisfy the USG’s insatiable addiction. So instead, it relied on deficit spending through raw base money creation. This meant government competed with global demand for a limited supply of importable goods—driving prices up. At the same time, the US private sector had to pay the same higher prices without the benefit of issuing its own currency to buy needed imports. Rising import prices forced the US economy to consume more of its own domestic goods, which increased USG’s reliance on imports, and since foreign imports cost more in terms of the domestic currency, this increased the cost of the USG’s addiction in terms of domestic currency.

4   uomo_senza_nome   2012 Mar 5, 3:08am  

tdeloco says

Basically, China is diversifying away from its $3.2T Reserves.

Saw this link today related to this diversification.

“If your Congress passes a bill labelling us as currency manipulators, we will crush you. And because we find your government rather difficult to deal with, please convey that message on our behalf.”

5   tdeloco   2012 Mar 8, 2:08am  

Thanks uomo_senza_nome.

uomo_senza_nome says

Is your proposition that by devaluing the dollar, we are going to narrow the trade deficit?

Competitive devaluation is just one of the factors. The other is production efficiency (comparative advantage). At this point in time, I can't imagine what we can offer that the rest of the world cannot (in the required quantities).

uomo_senza_nome says

If your Congress passes a bill labeling us as currency manipulators, we will crush you

I give up. "If you can't beat 'em, join 'em". I'm gonna start studying Chinese, ha ha.

uomo_senza_nome says

http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/11/moneyness.html

That's odd. I've always thought USG was intertwined with a good chunk of the US private sector. One example: big private corporations that research/manufacture for the military. The article is saying is that they're pretty much competing.

6   tdeloco   2012 Mar 8, 6:09pm  

You're right. Should be focusing on ROK.

Dividends: $0.43 total per share for the past 3 quarters (paid out quarterly).
P/E: 16.05
Forward PE: 13.51

They're a global provider of industrial automation. Competitors: ABB, EMR, SI. SI (Siemens) is more focused on electronics and electrical engineering. I'd say it's a value stock with good growth potential.

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