patrick.net

brightc, I confirm your suspicion that you are, in fact clueless.

If you are just now coming to the realization that we may be looking into the black double barrel of a recession, then I suggest you read like a fiend on this site and places like prudentbear.com.

As for your question, "Could things turn out much worse than anyone of us could anticipate?"

Well, I'm probably on the very severe end of the "how bad can it get" spectrum for this site. In essence, I think it's going to be worse than the great depression - by a lot. If this turn out "much worse" than I anticipate, then we're all dead or living underground like in 12 monkeys or Dr. Strangelove.

ScottC =
"Since the listing agreement is a fully binding legal contract, any violation of it by the broker, who is an agent of the seller, or any of the broker’s associates, who are subagents of the seller, is an actionable offense. The broker and all associates would lose their licenses and render themselves subject to a serious lawsuit for a lot of money. And that is not bullshit."

It is bs.

How about you find me the last 10 cases in Texas that were litigated where the plaintiff was a buyer/seller suing his/her agent for breach. Find out what the final settlement was. Also, find out how many have lost their licenses.

A "serious" lawsuit for "a lot" of money? Please. No breach of a listing agreement is going to result in a judgement for "a lot" of money. Moreso, no lawyer is going to take the case on a contingency basis, so the cost of pursuing a suit against a Realtor(TM) will be prohibitive.

he’s about to go underground until spring, at which time he’ll venture out an proclaim, INTANGIBLE…”

That could be true for those sellers, who have dropped off the MLS, hoping to find a resurge in demand come spring (to find that "right" buyer), and slowly waking up to see everyone else is doing the same thing...

brightc, I confirm your suspicion that you are, in fact clueless.

Escaped, are you always this ornery? You need to master the subtlety of the rant without insults. Lighten up man!

"Escaped, are you always this ornery? You need to master the subtlety of the rant without insults. Lighten up man!"

Now SactoQT, that's the second time you've told me to lighten up, so here's yours . . .

Of all of the people I have met in life who regularly use the expression, "lighten up," 95% of them are losers and slackers who will do nothing but grab on to you and drag you down if you aren't dilligent about swatting them away.

So no, there is too much at stake to "lighten up." I'll lighten up when all of the bozos who trot around this planet figure out that they're killing themselves . . . and dragging me off the cliff with them.

So SacQT - Get serious, girl!

I do agree, however, that insults are not welcome here.

BrightC I apologize if my line came accross as insulting to you. Because insults are, I guess, in the ear of the receiver, I'll defer to you on whether it was an insult. It was an attempt, albeit a weak attempt, at humor, and I didn't mean it as an insult, but rather as a kick-start.

Of all of the people I have met in life who regularly use the expression, “lighten up,” 95% of them are losers and slackers who will do nothing but grab on to you and drag you down if you aren’t dilligent about swatting them away.

You know nothing about me, and I am most definitely not a slacker. I have found that people who refuse to lighten up take themselves way too seriously. Tell me, does the shoe fit?

SactoQT, I didn't say you were a slacker.

Do I take myself "too seriously"? I don't know what that means, but if you define what you mean by that, like any question you ask me, I'll answer it.

Taking one's self too seriously....

-Not willing to see another side to an argument.
-Not having a sense of humor about oneself.
-Being so literal that double meanings are often lost in translation.
-insulting others who have different opinions rather than respect a persons intelligence enough to think they might have a point to make.

That's just my opinion. Maybe other's have better definitions.

Signs of Armageddon

-Realtors (tm) stop saying "Now is the time to buy"
-Used car salesmen stop asking "What's it going to take to get you into this car?"

Do I, or am I, . . .

"Not willing to see another side to an argument."
I don't think so. I try to be a rationalist and empiricist with everything. Probably too much so.

"-Not having a sense of humor about oneself."
I don't think so. In fact, although I'm sure many people would describe me as arrogant at times, I'm also exceedingly self-deprecating.

"-Being so literal that double meanings are often lost in translation."

Do you mean that receiving double meanings is lost, or giving double meanings is lost?
I don't hink I miss much in interpreting other people's double meanings. As for putting out such things, I'm not sure, really.

In general, I am a very literal person. This is by necessity, however, because what I've learned in life is that if you give people the slightest wiggle room, they'll lie and screw you over. Like the one time I asked a woman I was dating, "did you put that in the mail?" and she replied, "I've taken care of it." Which meant that she left it with someone else, who didn't take care of it. So now when somebody says, "I took care of it," I depose them and ask, "what does that mean?"

-insulting others who have different opinions rather than respect a persons intelligence enough to think they might have a point to make.

Well, I think you have got me on this one. I think 90% of people are too uneducated/ignorant/stupid/self-centered/biased/and so on to have a well reasoned opinion on most things that are more complicated than whether "desperate housewives" is cultural garbage or social evolution.
Therefore, I don't "respect" most people's opinions on most things, as I think you mean the word "respect."

On the other hand, I avoid most people most of the time, and when I'm forced to interact with them, I almost always avoid insult, particularly if I don't know them.

Of course, insult is a conditional and relative thing.

For example, a woman once asked me what I thought of her hair do. I said I thought it looked horrid.

Is that an insult?

For example, a woman once asked me what I thought of her hair do. I said I thought it looked horrid.

Is that an insult?

That's a rhetorical question right? So I guess you're saying you're honest no matter what-- or something like that. Not a bad thing, at least people know where they stand.
Thanks for answering my question.

"That’s a rhetorical question right?"

Well, if she asked me any of the following questions . . .

"Do you like the Renoir?"
"What do you think of the new Trade Center architecture?"
"What do you think of the economic outlook?"
"What do you think of your car's exterior?"
"What do you think of that woman's hair over there?"

and I answered truthfully each time, "I think it looks horrid," then most people would say, "that's not an insult."

So what is the difference? And the answer to this, by the way, is the answer to how you define insult, I'd guess.

The difference is one hurts her feelings and the rest don't.

I don't define insult that way.

I'd define it as, "a statement created and delivered with the intent to hurt another person."

By my definition, of course, a truthful answer to a question asked can never be an insult.

Allah wrote . . . "Buying before interest rates rise is the absolute dumbest time to buy!"

This is wrong as a blanket statement.

For example, if there was no bubble today and you were going to lock in to a 30 year fixed rate, my advice would be to buy as soon as is practicle, because IMO rates are going to climb dramatically over the next 5 years.

Of course, the current bubble makes this statement seem correct - that is only coincidental however.

I've had problems in the past with being what I thought was truthful, but what I said was interpreted as insulting.

I had a friend who could be both self-destructive and stupid. When I would try to steer her away from the more idiotic behavior she'd take exception and tell me that a "supportive" friend wouldn't do that. Huh? I thought being a friend meant you try to help your friends, not stand by and let them self-destruct. But her idea of friendship was that I cheer her on no matter what. Oddly, this can relate to RE, I mean how many stories have we read here about people trying to talk friends/relatives out of stupid home purchases?

I do believe that the unvarnished truth is the best thing under most circumstances. But I've learned the hard way that most people don't seem to see it that way. No matter how abrasive I think you can be at times, I will always respect that you tell the truth as you see it. (Now am I being insulting by calling you abrasive? ;) )

SactoQt, I don't mind about EscapedFromDC comment, although I doubt his ability to articulate. Well-adjusted individuals can state their own ideas to the clearest intention with potentially offending anyone, or befuddling their own messages so that they will have to broadcast a few extra more to clarify their own ideas. I'll just turn out the noise and look for objective answers, which are what I'm looking for from my hypothetical question regarding a coming recession.

I believe in the housing bubble burst just as much as any of you. But as I'm reminded of the old saying "beware of what you wish for", I'm concerned if economy conditions could turn out to be much worse that most of us could be out of job and would not even be able to buy the deeply discounted homes we ever want. Any objective take on this one?

In closing, it is said the patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrels. Similarly, we can say honesty is the last excuse of the uncultivated.

SacQT wrote . . . "I do believe that the unvarnished truth is the best thing under most circumstances."

Now if we can get that "most" to "all", then again, I'll come out and we can get married.

SacQT, I am abrasive, so, by my definition, your honesty will not cause you to be insulting.

Yeah, I pretty much don't have any friends, by choice and by consequence, because I can't play the game anymore.

Like the one guy who adopted a baby and the baby was in day care 6.5 days a week 3 days after they got it.

I lost him when I noted that they meant to get a dog but accidentally got a person.

So many . . .

"Similarly, we can say honesty is the last excuse of the uncultivated."

Actually, it's my only excuse.

I lost him when I noted that they meant to get a dog but accidentally got a person.

Maybe there is hope they listened to the message intended.. Nahhh.

I believe in the housing bubble burst just as much as any of you. But as I’m reminded of the old saying “beware of what you wish for”, I’m concerned if economy conditions could turn out to be much worse that most of us could be out of job and would not even be able to buy the deeply discounted homes we ever want. Any objective take on this one?

I'm in the "hope for the best, prepare for the worst" group. There is that bit of schadenfreude in me that wishes all the people who have created this bubble suffer for their foolishness, but the overall effect on the economy would be too devastating if that were to really happen. I am not one who hopes for the second coming of the depression just so the greedy learn their lesson. We'd all suffer in that scenario.

Scott C -

I didn't ask you do the research for me. I pointed out a hole in your statement, and I offered you a way to patch the hole.

I do understand the law, by the way. I understand it extremely well. In fact, I'd bet you a huge sum of money that I understand "the law" better than almost anybody you have ever met in your whole friggin life.

How about them apples?

Allah -
Your last post has about 4 major errors in it.

Yes?

On another subject, how about the situation where high property taxes on possibly overvalued homes may help to drag down RE prices? Are taxes accounted for when the housing affordability is calculated? Certainly, this is another indicator that home prices are simply out of control.

Here are a few stats for tax liens for various CA counties:

San Mateo: 17,363
Santa Clara: 9,124
LA: 41,653
Sacto: 10,868
San Diego: 15,508
San Bernadino: 51,039
Sonoma: 2,660
SF: 2,950
Source: foreclosure.com

OK

OK ScottC,

Given that you didn't want to spend the 5 minutes on the data, I went the Texas site (big site) and did the research for you.

1. There was 1 license revoked for cause in July, August, and September. There were a bunch of probations with minor fees. For the math-challenged, that's an average of about 4 license revocations per year.

So ScottC, you see, the whole "we could lose our license" thing is a gigantic wad of crap.

To lose your license you pretty much have to steal.

Yeah, if you think about the whole "perfect storm" thing, the timing of the bankruptcy laws and credit card minimum laws, as well as any change to the mortgage deduction, are going to look like straws on the camel.

"and the REMAX place on the Plaza is for sale. LOL."

When the whole thing blows, the Remax people just get in the air ballon and leave OZ.

I don't know if you're wrong because although your post tries very very hard to make a coherent point, in the end, it fails.

THis just in . . .

"Refco Inc., reeling from the disclosure that its chief executive officer hid unpaid debts, blocked clients from withdrawing funds and said one of its units doesn't have enough liquidity to keep doing business. Refco is the biggest independent U.S. futures broker."

This is really really bad news. Bad bad omens, my friends.

Al - What you are saying has too many conditionals to be valuable.

Yes, you are correct, buy low, with no bidding competition, when interest rates are low.

Sure, we agree on that.

When the whole thing blows, the Remax people just get in the air ballon and leave OZ.

Unless the flying monkeys get to them first.

Ah yes, I fogot about the appraisers and mortgage brokers.

“Refco Inc., reeling from the disclosure that its chief executive officer hid unpaid debts, blocked clients from withdrawing funds and said one of its units doesn’t have enough liquidity to keep doing business. Refco is the biggest independent U.S. futures broker."

I used to have an account at Refco and I have to said that they are pretty good. I called in the morning to withdraw funds and the money is wired to my bank in the afternoon.

This is really a sad development.

Bush’s tax panel is close to recommending caps on deductions for home mortgages and employer provided health insurance.

I suspect that the caps on deductions will be implemented. Not that it is a popular measure... but it will be packaged and compromised into law.

The top end does not depend on deduction. The bottom end will not be affected or they will benefit in cause deduction is changed into tax credit. The Blue coasts will be toast.

Effects of deduction caps:

1. More psychological impact on the part of potential buyers
2. More financial pressure on marginal homedebtors
3. More incentive to use bigger downpayments
4. More incentive to use short-term mortgages (e.g. 5YR and 15YR)
5. Price decompression around 1M
6. Price compression arounf 300K

As a Realtor, an issue that always bugs me is kind of statistics that are published by the media. Usually when someone reports "house prices rose 17%", a more likely correct statement would be something like, 'the median price of homes sold this month is 17% higher'. This can mean that higher priced homes are selling rather than lower priced homes. It doesn't mean that individual homes are worth more, although there will probably be some correlation.

That being said, home prices in Half Moon Bay really have risen pretty astronomically and I see something going on in the market.

A quick search gave me some #'s. At the end of January 2005, Inventory for all San Mateo County was 530 homes listed and 294 sold in that month. At the end of September 2005, inventory was 1229 homes (+231%) and 507 were sold. On the Coast side, inventory has grown significantly in every month except January. In September, there were 45 sales and 69 homes listed in coastside communities from Pacifica to Pescadero.

I haven't applied any math, but I sense that our market peaked before April 15th, but a lot of sellers don't understand that and continued inflating their asking prices. For sellers who really want or need to sell, we're seeing significant price reductions, but the prices for comparable homes seem to be pretty much equal to what was happening in March and April.

A number I came up with some months ago was the disparity between what entry-level buyers pay per square foot and what luxury buyers pay. Essentially, a older 800SF shack on the coastside is worth about $650 /SF - Golf-course ocean view new homes are selling for about $375/SF.

I think we're pretty much seeing the limits of what people are willing to pay for marginal homes and I think folks in the million plus range are actually getting pretty good value.

I think we’re pretty much seeing the limits of what people are willing to pay for marginal homes and I think folks in the million plus range are actually getting pretty good value.

Quite true though.

What does anyonw know about foreclosure.com? Are listings accurate? Has anyone joined this website?

Thanks for all the awesome discussion. I feel so much better being a renter. Loved Patricks' comment that home owners are subsidizing my housing costs.

Dear SantaCruzan - you might want to post your question on the most recent thread. This thread hasn't been posted to in a week.

I checked out a few listings at foreclosure dot com when I was looking to buy. The properties were out of date. Also, when I contacted several of the contact people given on the website for a particular house, the people had no idea what I was talking about.

I think it's a good time to be a renter. Give it another year or two and, in my opinion, you'll know why the smart money isn't buying housing right now.

Thanks Escaped from DC. I will check the other thread. This is so fascinating to read. A friend keeps insisting the weather is good in the BA so of course people will buy. Seems too simple.