Ten Reasons It's A Terrible Time To Buy An Expensive House

By Patrick   follow   Sat, 11 Jul 2015, 12:58pm PDT   ↑ Like (14)   ↓ Dislike (2)   349,689 views   214 comments   Watch (31)   Share   Quote  

  1. Because house prices in expensive areas still dangerously high compared
    to incomes and rents. Banks say a safe mortgage is a maximum of 3 times
    the buyer's annual income with a 20% downpayment. Landlords say a safe price is
    set by the rental market; annual rent should be at least 9% of the purchase
    price, or else the price is just too high. Yet in affluent areas, both
    those safety rules are still being violated. Buyers are still borrowing 6 times
    their income with tiny downpayments, and gross rents are still only 3% of
    purchase price. Renting is a cash business
    that proves what people can really pay based on their salary, not how much they
    can borrow. Salaries and rents prove that affluent neighborhoods are still in a
    huge housing bubble, and that bubble seems to be getting more dangerous by the day.
  2. On the other hand, in some poor neighborhoods, prices are now so low that gross
    rents may exceed 10% of price. Housing is a bargain for buyers there. Prices there
    could still fall yet more if unemployment rises or interest rates go up, but
    those neighborhoods have no bubble anymore.

  3. Because it's usually still much cheaper to rent than to own the same size
    and quality house, in the same school district. In rich neighborhoods, annual rents are
    typically only 3% of purchase price while mortgage rates are 4% with fees, so it costs more
    to borrow the money as it does to borrow the house
    . Renters win and
    owners lose! Worse, total owner costs including taxes, maintenance, and
    insurance come to about 8% of purchase price, which is more than twice the cost of
    renting and wipes out any income tax benefit.

    The only true sign of a bottom is a price low enough so that you could rent out
    the house and make a profit. Then you'll know it's pretty safe to buy for
    yourself because then rent could cover the mortgage and ownership expenses if
    necessary, eliminating most of your risk. The basic buying safety rule is to
    divide annual rent by the purchase price for the house:

    annual rent / purchase price = 3% means do not buy, prices are too high

    annual rent / purchase price = 6% means borderline

    annual rent / purchase price = 9% means ok to buy, prices are reasonable

    So for example, it's borderline to pay $200,000 for a house that would cost you
    $1,000 per month to rent. That's $12,000 per year in rent. If you buy it with a
    6% mortgage, that's $12,000 per year in interest instead, so it works out about
    the same. Owners can pay interest with pre-tax money, but that benefit gets
    wiped out by the eternal debts of repairs and property tax, equalizing things.
    It is foolish to pay $400,000 for that same house, because renting it would
    cost only half as much per year, and renters are completely safe from falling
    housing prices. Subtract HOA from rent before doing the calculation for condos.

    Although there is no way to be sure that rents won't fall, comparing the local
    employment rate (demand) to the current local supply of available homes for
    rent or sale (supply) should help you figure out whether a big fall in rents
    could happen. Checking these factors minimizizes your risk.

  4. Because it's a terrible time to buy when interest rates are low, like now.
    House prices rose as interest rates fell, and house prices will fall if interest rates rise
    without a strong increase in jobs, because a fixed monthly payment covers a
    smaller mortgage at a higher interest rate. Since interest rates have nowhere to
    go but up, prices have nowhere to go but down. When housing falls, you lose your
    equity, but not your debt.

    The way to win the game is to
    have cash on hand to buy outright at a low price when others cannot
    borrow very much because of high interest rates. Then you get a low price, and
    you get capital appreciation caused by future interest rate declines. To buy an
    expensive house at a time of low interest rates and high prices like now is a mistake.

    It is far better to pay a low price with a high interest rate than a
    high price with a low interest rate, even if the mortgage payment is the same
    either way.

    • A low price lets you pay it all off instead of being a debt-slave for the rest of your life.
    • As interest rates fall, real estate prices generally rise.
    • Your property taxes will be lower with a low purchase price.
    • Paying a high price now may trap you "under water", meaning you'll have a
      mortgage debt larger than the value of the house. Then you will not be able to
      refinance because then you'll have no equity, and will not be able to sell without
      a loss. Even if you get a long-term fixed rate mortgage, when rates
      inevitably go up the value of your property will go down. Paying a low
      price minimizes your damage.
    • You can refinance when you buy at a higher interest rate and rates
      fall, but current buyers will never be able to refinance for a lower interest rate
      in the future. Rates are already as low as they can go.
  5. Because buyers already borrowed too much money and cannot pay it back. They
    spent it on houses that are now worth less than the loans. This means most banks
    are still actually bankrupt. But since the banks have friends in Washington, they get
    special treatment that you do not. The Federal Reserve prints up bales of new
    money to buy worthless mortgages from irresponsible banks, slowing
    down the buyer-friendly deflation in housing prices and socializing bank losses.

    The Fed exists to protect big banks from the free market, at your expense.
    Banks get to keep any profits they make, but bank losses just get passed on to
    you as extra cost added on to the price of a house, when the Fed prints up money
    and buys their bad mortgages. If the Fed did not prevent the free market from
    working, you would be able to buy a house much more cheaply.

    As if that were not enough corruption, Congress authorized vast amounts of TARP
    bailout cash taken from taxpayers to be loaned directly to the worst-run
    banks, those that already gambled on mortgages and lost. The Fed and Congress
    are letting the banks "extend and pretend" that their mortgage loans will get
    paid back.

    And of course the banks can simply sell millions of bad loans
    to Fannie and Freddie at full price, putting taxpayers on the hook for
    the banks' gambling losses. Heads they win, tails you lose.

    It is necessary that YOU be forced deeply into debt, and therefore forced into
    slavery, for the banks to make a profit. If you pay a low price for a house and
    manage to avoid debt, the banks lose control over you. Unacceptable to them.
    It's all a filthy battle for control over your labor.

    This is why you will
    never hear the president or anyone else in power say that we need lower house
    prices
    . They always talk about "affordability" but what they always mean is
    debt-slavery.

  6. Because buyers used too much leverage. Leverage means using debt to amplify
    gain. Most people forget that debt amplifies losses as well. If a buyer puts 10%
    down and the house goes down 10%, he has lost 100% of his money on paper. If he
    has to sell due to job loss or a mortgage rate adjustment, he lost 100% in the
    real world.

    The simple fact is that the renter - if willing and able to save his money -
    can buy a house outright in half the time that a conventional buyer can
    pay off a mortgage. Interest generally accounts for more than half of the cost
    of a house. The saver/renter not only pays no interest, he also gets interest
    on his savings, even if just a little. Leveraged housing appreciation, usually
    presented as the "secret" to wealth, cannot be counted on, and can just as
    easily work against the buyer. In fact, that leverage is the danger that got
    current buyers into trouble.

    The higher-end housing market is now set up for a huge crash in prices, since there
    is no more fake paper equity from the sale of a previously overvalued property
    and because the market for securitized jumbo loans is dead. Without that fake
    equity, most people don't have the money needed for a down payment on an
    expensive house. It takes a very long time indeed to save up for a 20%
    downpayment when you're still making mortgage payments on an underwater house.

    It's worse than that. House prices do not even have to fall to cause
    big losses. The cost of selling a house is kept unfairly high because of the Realtor® lobby's
    corruption of US legislators.
    On a $300,000 house, 6% is $18,000 lost even if housing
    prices just stay flat. So a 4% decline in housing prices bankrupts all those
    with 10% equity or less.

  7. Because the housing bubble was not driven by supply and demand. There
    is huge supply because of overbuilding, and there is less demand now that the
    baby boomers are retiring and selling. Prices in the housing market, even now, are
    entirely a function of how much the banks are willing and able to lend. Most
    people will borrow as much as they possibly can, amounts that are completely
    disconnected from their salaries or from the rental value of the property. Banks
    have been willing to accomodate crazy borrowers because banker
    control of the US government
    means that banks do not yet have to acknowledge
    their losses, or can push losses onto taxpayers through government housing
    agencies like the FHA.
  8. Because there is still a massive backlog of latent foreclosures.
    Millions of owners stopped paying their mortgages, and the banks
    are still not forclosing on all of them, letting the owner live in the house for free. If a
    bank forecloses and takes possession of a house, that means the bank is
    responsible for property taxes and maintenance. Banks don't like those costs. If
    a bank then sells the foreclosure at current prices, the bank has to admit a
    loss on the loan. Banks like that cost even less. So there is a tsunami of
    foreclosures on the way that the banks are ignoring, for now. To prevent a
    justified foreclosure is also to prevent a deserving family from buying that
    house at a low price. Right now, those foreclosures will wash over the landscape,
    decimating prices, and benefitting millions of families which will be able to
    buy a house without a suicidal level of debt, and maybe without any debt at
    all!
  9. Because first-time buyers have all been ruthlessly exploited and the
    supply of new victims is very low.
    From The Herald:
    "We were all corrupted by the housing boom, to some extent.
    People talked endlessly about how their houses were earning more than they did,
    never asking where all this free money was coming from. Well the truth is that
    it was being stolen from the next generation. Houses price increases don't
    produce wealth, they merely transfer it from the young to the old - from
    the coming generation of families who have to burden themselves with colossal
    debts if they want to own, to the baby boomers who are about to retire
    and live on the cash they make when they downsize."

    House price inflation has been very unfair to new families, especially those with
    children. It is foolish for them to buy at current high prices, yet government
    leaders never talk about how lower house prices are good for American
    families, instead preferring to sacrifice the young and poor to benefit the old
    and rich
    , and to make sure bankers have plenty of debt to earn interest on.
    Your debt is their wealth. Every "affordability" program drives prices
    higher by pushing buyers deeper into debt. Increased debt is not affordability,
    it's just pushing the reckoning into the future. To really help Americans,
    Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the FHA should be completely eliminated. Even
    more important is eliminating the mortgage-interest deduction, which costs the
    government $400 billion per year in tax revenue. The mortgage interest
    deduction directly harms all buyers
    by keeping prices higher than they
    would otherwise be, costing buyers more in extra purchase cost than they save
    on taxes. The $8,000 buyer tax credit cost each buyer in Massachusetts an extra
    $39,000
    in purchase price. Subsidies just make the subsidized item more
    expensive. Buyers should be
    rioting in the streets, demanding an end to all mortgage subsidies. Canada and Australia
    have no mortgage-interest deduction for owner-occupied housing. It can be done.

    The government pretends to be interested in affordable housing, but now that
    housing is becoming truly affordable via falling prices, they want to stop it?
    Their actions speak louder than their words.

  10. Because boomers are retiring. There are 70 million Americans born between
    1945-1960. One-third have zero retirement savings. The oldest are 66. The
    only money they have is equity in a house, so they must sell. This will add yet
    another flood of houses to the market, driving prices down even more.
  11. Because there is a huge glut of empty new houses. Builders are being forced
    to drop prices even faster than owners, because builders must sell to keep
    their business going. They need the money now. Builders have huge excess
    inventory that they cannot sell at current prices, and more houses are
    completed each day, making the housing slump worse.

Next Page: Eight groups who lie about the housing market »




The Housing Trap


You're being set up to spend your life paying off a debt you don't need to take
on, for a house that costs far more than it should. The conspirators are all
around you, smiling to lure you in, carefully choosing their words and watching
your reactions as they push your buttons, anxiously waiting for the moment when
you sign the papers that will trap you and guarantee their payoff. Don't be
just another victim of the housing market. Use this book to defend your freedom
and defeat their schemes. You can win the game, but first you have to learn how
to play it.

115 pages, $12.50

Kindle version available

Discuss the book

#housing

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MMR   befriend (4)   ignore (0)   Wed, 20 Jan 2016, 9:32pm PST   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 175

landtof says

understand the concept of coalescence (vice competitiveness). and their available schools are top-notch of course. better to reach up into that zone for a house any way you can, and ditch the $200k per year robo-residents

Like the difference between Lamorinda and Cupertino....dare I say, Palo Alto and Los Altos Hills as well?

landtof   befriend (0)   ignore (2)   Wed, 20 Jan 2016, 10:12pm PST   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 176

MMR says

Los Altos Hills

yes, anywhere that places rights of way for equestrian activities is where you want to be.

"busy idiots" prefer to be in the hive, close to queen starbucks and king corporate.

NZB   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Mon, 22 Feb 2016, 5:38am PST   Like (1)   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 177

Am about to buy a house in Antioch ca. Am found it because rents are going out of control In The Bay Area. Am afraid that in a couple of years I will not be able to pay it as rents are increasing faster than salaries in this region. The house I may be buying was appraised 100k less in 2005. Is in the nicer side of Antioch and it is all I can afford. Is there a bubble in that region? Schools are not so great though, and am not sure what to do about that as I have 2 kids 10&12 and can't pay private school. Any advise?

iwog   befriend (49)   ignore (12)   Mon, 22 Feb 2016, 6:28am PST   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 178

Unfortunately Antioch is rough area but better than Pittsburg and Bay Point. I would prefer Brentwood however I'm guessing that would add even more time to your commute. When I worked in Pleasanton I lived in Tracy and found that to be an affordable option.

The housing situation is pretty awful now but until the economy goes totally to hell, I'm afraid it's just going to get worse.

krystelrentalinfo   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Mon, 22 Feb 2016, 12:47pm PST   Like (1)   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 179

So I am looking to buy in Tampa FL...you can find a 3/2 fully updated house with screened in porch in a gated community for around $185k what do you think is it a bad or good time to buy? so confusing and i am a first timer help!!

KgK one   befriend (0)   ignore (2)   Mon, 22 Feb 2016, 1:46pm PST   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 180

I am interested in buying in Florida also but i want to where it can be rented easily, with some cashflow.

and something that can easily be maintained. 2 bed ground floor with 2 bath and all maintenance taken care of.

you know good realtor and site to find such.

Peavspet   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Mon, 22 Feb 2016, 5:05pm PST   Like (1)   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 181

I've been in the bay area 5 years, and have settled in Novato. At the time it seemed affordable, and while still relatively cheap, I've seen some homes /townhouses increase 100% in the last few years. We were renting and then the owner sold just a few months after we had a baby which was the worst. We are renting again but pre-approved for a mortgage. We have enough for a 3.5% downpayment on a house under 500k. That won't get you anything except a handful of small condos with huge HOA fees. We are considering going to Petaluma but I could become one of those mega commuters with a commute up to 2hrs. I work in Sausalito, if I don't work there I will be in SF or further south.

So many people are telling me the market is going to drop. But with foreign buyers, limited supply, increasing population...is that really going to happen?

EBGuy   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Mon, 22 Feb 2016, 5:28pm PST   Like (1)   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 182

Peavspet says

But with foreign buyers, limited supply, increasing population...is that really going to happen?

Let me attempt to address one of the issues, limited supply: A Record 62,000 Units in San Francisco’s Housing Pipeline.

Peavspet   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Mon, 22 Feb 2016, 5:40pm PST   Like (1)   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 183

EBGuy says

Let me attempt to address one of the issues, limited supply: A Record 62,000 Units in San Francisco’s Housing Pipeline.

Well that will help.

Tough   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Wed, 24 Feb 2016, 11:57pm PST   Like (3)   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 184

Housing will slow, then it will stop, then it will drop;

Regardless of what others think, even if subprime lending is over, and there are shortages of houses and there is strong demand for homes, the global economy is facing situations that may Trump the mortgage meltdown that "lead" to the recession. In the Bay Area, there are money making tech companies, then there are venture capital supported companies. Both are slowing. Google's spin off, is not making money. Apple is down nearly 35% over the past 52 weeks. IPO's are delayed. Then there's banking. Negative interest rates mixed with defaults in energy sectors. Then there are the 8 year car loans and college loan collapse. China banks keeping the buying power of their dollar down, money fleeing emerging markets, a 7 year supply of cheap oil sitting on barges looking for a port, and finally the 20 foot wall spanning the south west which will be built in 2018. Foreclosures in LA, ND, AL, LA, TX are growing. The BayArea does not self sustain itself. Speculation has driven up prices where cost to income ratios are beyond 2008. Employment usually drives home prices and China is not buying the RE that it did. This is the first time in a ling time that Gold is up week over week 15%.

What causes a person to default on a home loan? Usually income, but worse, it's when one person sells their home, then another and another, then people fear that values will not increase and sales slow, then homes sit, then homes go into default. Then people dump their homes because they are never going to refinance out of that $350 monthly PMI. This is all due to employment/income. Not all SF homes are paid for by cash, not with a 20% down, nor by investors. Tech can move anywhere in the USA, and it will flee if it needs to. In 2005-2006 there was exuberance, and confidence. Very few economists were predicting the "crash", If so, we only read about it now. The USA Today under every hotel door headlined "housing shortage". The global economy is worse, in 2008 interest rates were 5.75%. Today there is no where they can go. Housing will drop by 2017 and will crash by 2018. People will be pitching in and co-habitating, trimming costs. People will feel a big pinch, and regardless of their industry, Tech, Banking, Manufacturing, Sales, Services, Construction etc. every one will be effected.

B.A.C.A.H.   befriend (6)   ignore (5)   Sat, 27 Feb 2016, 1:10pm PST   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 185

Tough, I wish your extrapolations will fulfill your predictions. But I don't think so. It's Different Here. It's Different This Time.

Tough   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Sat, 27 Feb 2016, 1:59pm PST   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 186

I am afraid your right BACH. Economists who claim to predict the 2008 economic collapse tout the heck out of the 8 ball wisdom prediction in every book they publish. There are very very few web pages that date back to 2005-6. One cannot go back and verify. The things I write about are basically Buying Opportunities for folks who can afford to dollar cost average into their retirement acct. For someone wishing to swoop up a home for 40% less than the current price is a pipe dream. In 2024 it will happen again, when the average US home is at 650K then drops to 480K That same home sells for 275K now. Looks like I will be living in the garage for longer than expected.

Graybox   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Sat, 27 Feb 2016, 6:12pm PST   Like (1)   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 187

B.A.C.A.H. says

Tough, I wish your extrapolations will fulfill your predictions. But I don't think so. It's Different Here. It's Different This Time.

I absolutely agree, and my models are screaming the absolute opposite of Tough's predictions... We likely have seen the last low in the equities market for some time to come if ever, capitol flow seeking ROI and or safety into this country totally contradicts his predictions. From my frame of reference USA is the new bubble and has just started it's journey and it is very likely SF home prices will continue going up due to the general SF environment as a whole and the torrent of that capitol flow drenching this country over the next few yrs anyway. If a person has the ability to buy now would be the time however do it for the home sake only, not because your planning to some how beat the market.

GL with your decisions everybody....

Thatsaid   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Sun, 28 Feb 2016, 6:19am PST   Like (2)   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 188

Tough is correct. It might be scary to hear it but it is true. The global economy is crashing US dollar is the only safe place right now so it is giving us a false safe feeling. Google Armstrong Economics, click on his blog and search Real Estate. He says real estate has peaked and will be on a huge decline. The question is whether it will do you any good to have all of your money stuck in your home, or to have a low mortgage you can walk away from when x hits the fan.

There are always people who will say things area great and only going to get greater, and real esate will continue to go up, but it won't and it can't. Bottom line is real estate CAN NOT continue to outpace wages.

Real estate shortage......The shortage is due to a ton of people being underwater. If they list their house for what they need to sell it for, it is priced too high. The shortage is also from people refinancing at such a low rate, they feel they can't get a better deal by moving (and their income is not on the rise) The shortage is also from baby boomers staying in their homes. The aging population used to downsize and move away but this generation is not leaving their homes. There are 70 million boomers people. When they do finally start to die off, the market will be flooded. But that is going to take another 5 years to start trickling in.

The stock market has started it's correction and will continue to drop. It takes a while for that to trickle into the economy, but it does. When companies preform poorly in the stock market, lay offs follow, but it takes about a year. So look at 2017 starting with layoffs. Job losses force people to put their house for sale, but job losses dry up buyers. So houses sit and drop in price. Mortgages become harder to attain.

Now is the very best time to sell, worse time to buy in my opinion. But yes, you do have to live somewhere and renting in the bay area is a catch 22. Thankfully, I am in the Boston area where it isn't cheap, but nothing like SF.

Trust me, everyone wants to own a home when it feels like it is hard to get one, but everyone wants to unload them when they are easy to get. Anyone feeling frustrated with the market, wait a year or two more. You can thank me later! And anyone reading all of these comments is on here because deep down, they know something is wrong with the RE cycle or they wouldn't have found this thread. Be a contrarian, don't follow the herd. Liquidate and wait.

Graybox   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Sun, 28 Feb 2016, 9:35am PST   Like (1)   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 189

Thatsaid says

Tough is correct.

Now that is some funny shit.... lol Because you say he is right?... lol Sorry Thatsaid just because you say it
don't make Tough right or yourself.... It just don't work that way my friend....

Thatsaid says

US dollar is the only safe place right

Exactly, and it's looking for a ROI and it isn't in the metals.That money is not going to stay in dollar
and will be saturating our markets on every level creating opportunity and the rich will get richer while
the laymen sit on the sidelines.

Thatsaid says

Armstrong Economics

Is theory which does have bases as do many of the theories we read about today. Patnet. lol
I do respect lots of the theory as to what "can" happen. however I know in the end I am responsible
to look deeper and have my own opinions and theory to weigh against theirs. Some or all those conditions
have measure of possibility. But when? Today, tomorrow, next week, next year and etc., WHEN?.....
No one knows, what, when or where and that is a indisputable fact.

Thatsaid says

Bottom line is real estate CAN NOT continue to outpace wages

"Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" Yep, both ways up and down...

Thatsaid says

Real estate shortage

True, but there is a market and under the current situation it absolutely can go up. Maybe not so much
in median and low markets but high end the sky is the limit and will carry the rest enough to keep the market
alive. What you need to look at is when/if the high end market turns over.
Buy to own a home not for bragging rights of buying at the low, that trade is gone. Now if you are buying
as a trader in the markets the absolute majority will fair badly because they neither know when to buy or
sell at the optimum times RE is a market like any other emotion will be the main trigger instead of applicable
market theory and knowledge making the decision....

Thatsaid says

The stock market has started it's correction

Actually the market has corrected and has issued 2 confirmations it's broke the 2 mo. range. Typically
some retest for sellers will take place before it's move up. The market has been hedged and the bets
have been placed and now most everyone is sitting on the side lines waiting to see the outcome. The
majority are frozen and won't make a trade any direction at this point and the money they are sitting on
for the most part is waiting to buy not sell. Most of their capitol will be locked up in their hedge and belief
in a crash coming any minute due to bias-confirmation not what is actually happening on the global
landscape. Think globally, trade locally.....

Thatsaid says

Now is the very best time to sell

Not if it's your home or your trade in the markets. The general public has nearly zero concept of how
to beat any market much less compete with the competition that make their living making money with RE.
That's just a true fact of life.

Thatsaid says

Trust me,

Not a chance, and your theory which seems to be parts of all the gurus theory will be tested.
Pull a coin out of your pocket and flip it remembering there are 2 sides not 1

ERBear   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Mon, 7 Mar 2016, 7:13pm PST   Like (3)   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 190

I would like to mention another very sneaky and little noticed trick by apparently the US banks regarding the tax deduction on mortgage interest. I didn't realize this until I moved from the US to Canada and bought a house there. With a market only 10% in size compared to the US, you would imagine the Canadian banks can offer only much worse interest rates than the US. I was therefore surprised that I was able to get rates at least 30% better than the US rates. The 30% is a magic number, because with this, it make the REAL cost to the consumer of borrowing on a home mortgage SAME for both US and Canada (Canada does not have mortgage interest tax write-off). To a US consumer, there is NO REAL advantage in the tax write-off in the US tax system! You pay roughly the SAME out-of-pocket. So where does the money go? The banks, of course! The government is NOT subsidizing the home buyer with the tax write-off. It is instead encouraging the banks to raise their mortgage rates to 30% higher than the Canadian rate while making the home buyer feel as if they gained something with the write-off, whereas actually the government tax subsidy REALLY goes to the banks. It is like allowing the banks to jack up the price of a car by 30% higher than a Canadian car, then telling the car buyer "Don't worry, the Fed will reimburse you 30% of the car cost". So who got the 30% jacked-up price? The banks of course! With whose money? The FED's, or, YOU who pay the tax, of course!
I am impressed with the ingenuity of the Bank Lobby! It is no less impressive than the sub-prime lending. I was fooled all these years until I went to Canada.

Patrick   befriend (64)   ignore (4)   Thu, 10 Mar 2016, 5:24pm PST   Like (2)   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 191

ERBear says

cost to the consumer of borrowing on a home mortgage SAME for both US and Canada (Canada does not have mortgage interest tax write-off). To a US consumer, there is NO REAL advantage in the tax write-off in the US tax system! You pay roughly the SAME out-of-pocket. So where does the money go? The banks, of course!

@ERBear this is very interesting.

tatupu70   befriend (3)   ignore (12)   Thu, 10 Mar 2016, 5:29pm PST   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 192

I don't believe this. It's basically saying there is no competition in mortgage lending, which seems hard to believe.

jbat   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Thu, 10 Mar 2016, 7:39pm PST   Like (1)   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 193

ERBear,
This is misleading! Canadians can't get a 30 year mortgage. They are all basically on 5/1 ARMs -- which we also have available to us in the US for that same cheap rate. Who is crazy enough to go get a 5/1 ARM when interest rates can only go up? A whole country of Canadians, that's who!

smartclicks   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Sun, 13 Mar 2016, 9:24pm PDT   Like (1)   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 194

From 2017 - 2022 prices in SF will fall, just as they will fall all over the world. The Tech companies will no longer be able to employ the vast number of employees they have because the world population will no longer be able to afford the hi tech equipment being offered. Hence, the unemployed will have to sell for 40-60% less than their property was valued at when they purchased it, or if they prefer, they can go into foreclosure.

Bellingham Bill   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Mon, 14 Mar 2016, 6:56am PDT   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 195

will no longer be able to afford the hi tech equipment being offered.

alternatively, we/they keep printing, and the game goes on another decade.

is the main pain-point -- penalty -- of printing, and we're back to 1980s prices now.

we're no longer in the 1800s when people had to dig certain metal ores out of the ground to expand the money supply.

there's no reason to suffer through recessions any more, other than to purge the economy of speculative risk takers.

problem is recessions take out everyone in the end.

DieBankOfAmericaPhukkingDie   befriend (0)   ignore (2)   Mon, 14 Mar 2016, 8:08am PDT   Like (2)   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 196

Only CANNIBAL ANARCHY! can cleanse America of the parasites!

ERBear   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Mon, 14 Mar 2016, 3:12pm PDT   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 197

JBAT: I was talking about my first hand experience and I stand by it. I bought a house in Canada in 2011 and was looking for refinance deals in the US at the same time. I got a low rate in Canada that was unheard of in the US. That was that. No need to discuss.

ERBear   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Mon, 14 Mar 2016, 3:16pm PDT   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 198

TATUPU70: I fail to follow your logic.

ERBear   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Mon, 14 Mar 2016, 3:18pm PDT   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 199

Let me add another piece of input: A recent study found that Canadian percentage home ownership has surpassed the US number, DESPITE the lack of government tax write-off on mortgage interest.

tatupu70   befriend (3)   ignore (12)   Mon, 14 Mar 2016, 4:37pm PDT   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 200

ERBear says

JBAT: I was talking about my first hand experience and I stand by it. I bought a house in Canada in 2011 and was looking for refinance deals in the US at the same time. I got a low rate in Canada that was unheard of in the US. That was that. No need to discuss.

ERBear says

TATUPU70: I fail to follow your logic.

Lower rates in Canada are not because of the lack of a mortgage deduction

curious2   befriend (4)   ignore (5)   Tue, 15 Mar 2016, 2:38am PDT   Like   Dislike