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Will this hurt housing market?


By bubblesitter   Follow   Thu, 4 Aug 2011, 6:56am PDT   9,021 views   73 comments
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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Dow-average-plunges-513-worst-apf-169769799.html

Doesn't look like recession is over. More financial woes, more bad news for housing market IMO. What do you guys think?

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faith   Tue, 9 Aug 2011, 12:27am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 34

Why?

PRIME   Tue, 9 Aug 2011, 12:47am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 35

Los Angeles Renter says

Peter Schiff is still saying we'll have a great depression.. But then hyperinflation soon after... So we are all screwed... Your money in the bank will be worthless in the end.

I feel like I have read some interesting stuff from LA renter before, but not I am afraid I must click 'Ignore'.

edvard2   Tue, 9 Aug 2011, 1:16am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 36

My Mother in lawn owned southern coastal real estate and sold it. Why? The insurance on the thing was ridiculous. You couldn't pay me to own land anywhere near the Southern coast.

faith   Tue, 9 Aug 2011, 1:48am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 37

My insurance is only $450/yr and that includes flood.....that's less than internet per month.....do you consider that expensive?

Payoff2011   Tue, 9 Aug 2011, 1:54am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 38

commonsense says

Does anyone really know what the hell happens to property owners in a scenario of hyperinflation? It isn't pretty.

What isn't pretty? I've been an owner during multiple periods of inflation. With a fixed rate mortgage, my housing payments stayed stable, while income went up. Rents go up during times of inflation. Obviously other expenses go up as well. But those costs go up whether someone rents or owns. Inflationary periods are the most advantageous time to be an owner.
Or is there something I'm not understanding about this comment?

faith   Tue, 9 Aug 2011, 2:12am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 39

Exactly....that's what I intend to do on florida. Rent and wait. I'm almost fully booked for winter/spring of 2012.....thank you!!

edvard2   Tue, 9 Aug 2011, 2:13am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 40

faith says

My insurance is only $450/yr and that includes flood.....that's less than internet per month.....do you consider that expensive?

Her's was $4,500 a year. But that aside, I helped her maintain the house for 3-4 years. The salt air accelerated corrosion of everything 5-fold. Light fixtures, air conditioners, paint, wooden decking, nails, hardware, and even interior metal components just rusted away. It was an absolute nightmare of a house to keep care of. After you've been there enough times the allure of being on the ocean gets old too: There was NOTHING to do there except sit around and watch old farts from NY and MA bumble around.

Anyway, she sold the thing at the peak of the market after having owned it for 30 years. She bought it back when getting to the area was difficult thus the land was cheap. She did quite well for herself. But after that experience there's no way I would buy a house on the Southern coast.

bubblesitter   Tue, 9 Aug 2011, 2:19am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 41

E-man says

Don't be a loser and buy now.

Thanks for the tip.

E-man says

All I know is someone like you will be paying off my mortgages.

But I am free and not a debt slave. I don't have few middle guys IRS,renters to make my finances. Good luck on your endeavours. By the way this a bear site, you must be hanging around here for your post purchase rationalization. :)

E-man says

Don't be a loser and buy now.

Just how you think you are a smart investor guided by your instincts,so do I. I'll know when to buy. After all it matters who wins the race at the finish line.

faith   Tue, 9 Aug 2011, 2:24am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 42

Your friend got ripped off with insurance. What? How could the ocean get old? Yes, things do corrode a bit over time. But so what if you have to replace the odd faucet or doorknob? Everything is so damn cheap down there to buy....And those old farts are the ones who pay my rent...lol

commonsense   Tue, 9 Aug 2011, 2:26am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 43

I came of age in Southern California around the time Prop 13 was passed. That was not a period hyperinflation and we have yet to see hyperinflation in this country, on the levels of other parts of the world (at least not yet.)

commonsense   Tue, 9 Aug 2011, 2:28am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 44

bubblesitter says

I'll know when to buy. After all it matters who wins the race at the finish line.

I am with you there. I too know when to buy something, and what to pay.

edvard2   Tue, 9 Aug 2011, 2:38am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 45

faith says

What? How could the ocean get old? Yes, things do corrode a bit over time. But so what if you have to replace the odd faucet or doorknob? Everything is so damn cheap down there to buy....And those old farts are the ones who pay my rent...lol

Trust me. It does. I live next to the ocean now and after a few years it sort of like ho-hum, and that's out there in California where its not a bazillion degrees, humid, and always under threat of hurricanes.

We had to replace ALL of the outdoor electrical fixtures every 2 years. They basically turned into a rusted crust. We tried aluminum. No luck either. Wood dry rots and disintegrates.

The local economy was totally driven by tourism. The entire population was transient- they were usually only there on vacation. That was a tad depressing.

Anyway, to each their own I suppose. Do whatever makes ya' happy.

commonsense   Tue, 9 Aug 2011, 2:41am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 46

My family's assets are not invested in real estate (and frankly if you have over 50% mortgage you aren't an owner (free and clear.) You don't own anything in my opinion until it is paid in full.) I have allocated cash reserves, credit lines that are pristine (in the past three months I've had three credit card rates reduced due to my credit history thank you,) absolutely no mortgage debt, no auto debt. I have invested in top quality furniture and antiques, decorative arts and fine art. End of the day I'll buy cash and I have a fortune in assets that are PAID. I am not into the Russian roulette debt game of real estate, which for some will never end.

faith   Tue, 9 Aug 2011, 2:44am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 47

I intend to vacation there like everyone one else.....not live there year round. Eventually the hope is that i can move from being at par with the books to a positive cash flow and use that money to travel other places along with florida....until of course i become an old fart in which case florida is fine by me.

bubblesitter   Tue, 9 Aug 2011, 3:19am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 48

commonsense says

I came of age in Southern California around the time Prop 13 was passed. That was not a period hyperinflation and we have yet to see hyperinflation in this country, on the levels of other parts of the world (at least not yet.)

Exactly. You can only build so much inflation out of phantom money. In the end you need real money to have a true hyper inflation. Until America and its populace payoff the current debt and then start over, this talk of inflation is BS. One don't need Phd in economics to understand this.

commonsense   Tue, 9 Aug 2011, 3:22am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 49

bubblesitter says

Until America and its populace payoff the current debt and then start over, this talk of inflation is BS. One don't need Phd in economics to understand this.

Precisely.

edvard2   Tue, 9 Aug 2011, 4:55am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 50

faith says

I intend to vacation there like everyone one else.....not live there year round. Eventually the hope is that i can move from being at par with the books to a positive cash flow and use that money to travel other places along with florida....until of course i become an old fart in which case florida is fine by me.

I dunno... I grew up in NC and we went to FL a lot when I was a kid. Not my favorite place but again- to each their own... Good luck with the property and your future vacations.

TMAC54   Tue, 9 Aug 2011, 2:47pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 51

commonsense says

you aren't an owner

You ARE the owner. You have whats known as a bundle of rights. The right to sell, the right to make improvements to rent, etc. Unless you do not make payments as you promised.

TMAC54   Tue, 9 Aug 2011, 2:57pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 52

faith says

trust me...in 10 years you will be kicking yourselves for not jumping in.

Are you suggesting there will be no bare land left to build a house in ten years ?

Florida already had its land grab years after the Tulip fiasco but years prior to the shortage of electricity. Our most recent Real Estate bubble was a direct result of the introduction and improvements to the most important and influential invention of ALL time known to mankind. (that thing you are reading this on) Real Estate prices spike when incomes spike. Real property values decline when JOBS are lost. Those millions of jobs lost were of the individuals involved in the introduction of the computer. Are those jobs coming back ?

TMAC54   Tue, 9 Aug 2011, 3:10pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 53

E-man says

BUY, BUY, BUY!!!

Upton Sinclair wrote:
It is difficult to make someone understand something when their income is dependent on their NOT understanding it. Real Estate Agents, Mortgage brokers , Bankers, Politicians, NEWS MEDIA ! Anyone who will lose money as values retreat to their PHENOMENOL levels.
A good indicator will be when shared equity mortgages return.

commonsense   Tue, 9 Aug 2011, 10:56pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 54

TMAC54 says

You ARE the owner. You have whats known as a bundle of rights.

I hate to inform you that renters also have a bundle of rights, those rights you refer to still do not make you the outright owner.

corntrollio   Wed, 10 Aug 2011, 3:46am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 55

TMAC54 says

PHENOMENOL

Phenomenol sounds like it should be an OTC "male enhancement" drug hawked on infomercials.

TMAC54   Wed, 10 Aug 2011, 3:11pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 56

commonsense says

I hate to inform you that renters also have a bundle of rights, those rights you refer to still do not make you the outright owner.

Just lemme know the bank that will give you cash for your rental. Heck lemme know the rental that allows you to paint it your choice of colors. Your rights under a rental agreement are limited to quiet enjoyment. And if you don't pay as promised same as ownership , you get evicted.
Don't hate, read some real estate books.

TMAC54   Wed, 10 Aug 2011, 3:18pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)     Comment 57

corntrollio says

Phenomenol sounds like it should be an OTC "male enhancement" drug hawked on infomercials.

People don't buy mortgages over 14%, people don't drive over one hour each way to work, people average 73 mph weather the speed limit is 55 or 65, people do phenomenal things. They also pay 2.5 times their income for a real estate mortgage unless they have had a windfall.

commonsense   Wed, 10 Aug 2011, 11:07pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 58

TMAC54 says

Don't hate, read some real estate books.

Please spare me the "don't hate" bit, it is really just a bit too much. Paint your own colours? Come on, that is the oldest sales pitch to buy a house that has been used for ages how you can paint your own colours and go deeper into debt by remodeling all for that perceived end return (that most are realising doesn't always happen.) For your info, I've read plenty of RE books I've held real estate licenses in two different states simultaneously for referral only mind you, but I still rely on common sense.

TMAC54   Thu, 11 Aug 2011, 12:02am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 59

Witch book or witch state did you read that you are not an owner ?

commonsense   Thu, 11 Aug 2011, 12:20am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 60

I am referring to my viewpoint that outright 100% ownership means without loans or liens against the property, as in, "Without additional payments owing, constraints, or stipulations: owns the property outright." The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language. Do you believe someone who walks in with 3% down on a property is the 100% owner free and clear? If you do, then I'd like to know the books you are reading.

bubblesitter   Thu, 11 Aug 2011, 12:27am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 61

commonsense says

3% down on a property is the 100% owner free and clear?

I think he means free and clear after 30 years. Keep spending a $ to get 25 cents back and the later part of the loan it is just give away to banks cuz interest is not as enough as standard deduction.

commonsense   Thu, 11 Aug 2011, 12:32am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 62

bubblesitter says

I think he means free and clear after 30 years.

Ah!!! OK well if that is the case now it all makes perfect sense to me. Thanks bubblesitter.

FortWayne   Thu, 11 Aug 2011, 12:43am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 63

It's a good time to buy stocks. When stock markets drop, it's a rare opportunity to make very nice returns.

FortWayne   Thu, 11 Aug 2011, 12:46am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 64

bubblesitter says

I think he means free and clear after 30 years. Keep spending a $ to get 25 cents back and the later part of the loan it is just give away to banks cuz interest is not as enough as standard deduction.

I have one neighbor sweating bullets lately. He bought couple of years ago, took on way more risk than he should, lost a job couple of month ago and can't pay mortgage and can't find a renter either to cover his mortgage and property taxes....

tatupu70   Thu, 11 Aug 2011, 12:47am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 65

bubblesitter says

I think he means free and clear after 30 years. Keep spending a $ to get 25 cents back and the later part of the loan it is just give away to banks cuz interest is not as enough as standard deduction.

It's better to rent then? You pay a $ to get nothing back.

FortWayne   Thu, 11 Aug 2011, 12:50am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 66

tatupu70 says

It's better to rent then? You pay a $ to get nothing back.

He is renting a house, in many situations it is cheaper than renting money. If you are making payments on a liability you have to think of what is that money not doing elsewhere.

bob2356   Thu, 11 Aug 2011, 12:54am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 67

tatupu70 says

bubblesitter says

I think he means free and clear after 30 years. Keep spending a $ to get 25 cents back and the later part of the loan it is just give away to banks cuz interest is not as enough as standard deduction.

It's better to rent then? You pay a $ to get nothing back.

I'm putting the difference between renting and owning the same house in the bank. My investments are growing, houses in my area are sinking in value.

tatupu70   Thu, 11 Aug 2011, 12:59am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 68

bob2356 says

I'm putting the difference between renting and owning the same house in the bank. My investments are growing, houses in my area are sinking in value.

FortWayne says

He is renting a house, in many situations it is cheaper than renting money. If you are making payments on a liability you have to think of what is that money not doing elsewhere.

Those are different arguments. If bubble had said either of those, he would have a point.

If renting is cheaper and you have a short time horizon, then renting is probably better. If you expect housing prices to decline in your area, then renting is probably better.

But saying renting is better because you don't pay interest to the bank is a poor argument.

bubblesitter   Thu, 11 Aug 2011, 1:05am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 69

bob2356 says

houses in my area are sinking in value.

For some people math is always fuzzy. Put a $ and get 25 cents back. You loose 75 cents,instead I rent the same place for 60 cents(cuz renting the same place rather then owning is cheap). Now I have 75-60 = 15 cents in pocket to play with. In the owning scenario the carrying cost of that 15 cents over the period of 30 years is a lot. Owning does not makes any financial on a sinking or flat value RE. :)

Philistine   Thu, 11 Aug 2011, 1:12am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 70

TMAC54 says

Your rights under a rental agreement are limited to quiet enjoyment

Not my rental agreement. Every apartment we've owned we've decorated to the nines--bold color choices (yes, we even paint the ceiling depending on the application), changing light fixtures and switchplates and thangs, whatever we wanted. We make sure we have cool landlords (no property managers!) and since everything we do is tasteful and put back to it's original state when we move out 3 years later, nobody gets hurt.

We maybe renters, but our pad *always* looks better than your average cookie cutter tract home from Suburbia, and probably because A) renting or buying, money does *not* purchase taste, and B) if you are a mortgage slave, your only affordabe effort at "personalizing" your living environment might be that can of "inoffensive" trendy-colored Martha Stewart paint from Home Depot, unless you are getting that passe second mortgage for granite counter tops and Pergo floors (yuck!).

corntrollio   Thu, 11 Aug 2011, 3:15am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 71

Philistine says

We make sure we have cool landlords (no property managers!) and since everything we do is tasteful and put back to it's original state when we move out 3 years later, nobody gets hurt.

I feel like some people's involvement with rentals is the crappy apartment they lived in during college. A lot of landlords are fine when they realize they have good renters who will pay like clockwork and will changes back preferences that they made (like painting the wall, etc.).

Philistine says

We maybe renters, but our pad *always* looks better than your average cookie cutter tract home from Suburbia

This is not uncommon. While a lot of people might think they have "freedom," in some cases that means the freedom to make their house look like crap. The number of people who make half-assed additions to their houses and other such "remodeling" that doesn't meet any identifiable permit standard is surprising. Even such things like level floors seem to be beyond some people.

faith   Thu, 11 Aug 2011, 11:34pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 72

I have always used the warren buffet strategy.......when people run scared invest there....when everyone wants to invest there there sell it.....trust me it works. I watch this thread and all of the rationales behind why not to buy etc.....but look at the stock market right now. Opinions on the economy change on a daily basis.......the stocks go up and then down driven by emotion.

Here's my 2 cents......if you want a short term gain forget about real estate. Invest in the blue chips...look at cisco as an example..it plummeted and then gained 16% in 1 day....or go sell some of your gold jewlery that your ex gave you. They are paying a mint for it right now.........if you are in it for the long haul i still have faith in real estate....

We are living in an economy where we can benefit from the wild swings...ok....now i need a coffee.

ConfederateKoreanCar   Fri, 12 Aug 2011, 7:07am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 73

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Tony Manero says

The time to buy is when Fox has a reality show that features Realtors® committing suicide.

Could you possibly chain Rupert to some Realtors before they jump? Ratings will be huge!

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