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2011 predictions.


By michaelsch   Follow   Tue, 28 Dec 2010, 4:16am PST   6,446 views   76 comments   Watch (0)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

Time to start with them.

Please, please avoid degrading into D vs R fights.

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michaelsch   befriend   ignore   Thu, 30 Dec 2010, 3:33am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 37

toothfairy says

Kevin I’m going to go out on a limb and agree with your bold prediction of 2pp drop in unemployment.
Actually this article nicely sums up what I feel is in store for 2011

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-28/housing-starts-seen-rising-to-three-year-high-with-belated-u-s-jobs-boost.html

A lot of mumbling about nothing in that article.

2pp drop in UE? How? Because SOME of 1.4mil unemployed construction workers will maybe find a job? LOL. We have more than 40mil "boomerangs" in USA. Lots of them after some kind of college. They can't get professional jobs, because there are none in this country. (Do you think job will come back from oversees? Hey, it will take several generations of poverty in USA. Or do you think them in BRIC countries will need more managers from USA? Very unlikely.)

"Boomerangs" are constantly off and on some temporary jobs. They supply much of the UE stats. They are moving back to their parents over-sized houses en mass, and are saddled with incredible college loan debt. (11 times higher than it was 12 years ago). Does anyone seriously think these people will start buying new houses any time soon? In meantime millions of boomers will retire and whoever can will try to downsize.

In short, demographics are strongly against housing "recovery". If anything it may create some small niche demands.

toothfairy   befriend   ignore   Thu, 30 Dec 2010, 3:55am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 38

you're talking about a long term secular trend which is pretty meaningless when talking about the cyclical economic recovery we're about to have in 2011.

¥   befriend   ignore   Thu, 30 Dec 2010, 4:01am PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike (1)     Comment 39

toothfairy says

cyclical economic recovery we’re about to have in 2011

People talking 'cyclical' don't understand what's going on now.

If I may:

This:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CMDEBT

broke the 'cycle'.

For the past 2 years we've been using this:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FYGFDPUN

to keep the rubber side down, but it turns out the American people decided last month to see what will happen if we stop gummint spending our children's money now.

cyclical economic recovery my *ss.

michaelsch   befriend   ignore   Thu, 30 Dec 2010, 6:50am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 40

toothfairy says

you’re talking about a long term secular trend which is pretty meaningless when talking about the cyclical economic recovery we’re about to have in 2011.

College debt is actually cyclical, of the same nature as housing bubble, and was partially caused by irresponsible policies of Bush.

However you missed my point. It was just about that article that presented tiny factors (tiny even compared with effects of long term secular trends we'll see during 2011) as something that can do a significant fix.

BTW, there is another factor that is likely to increase UE rate especially in CA. That's state and muni crisis. Even now it considerably affects UE rate. The thing is "seasonal" layoffs.

For example, many state and community colleges are reducing classes they offer. Often it works like this: in the past a college had the class offered in all four "semesters" - Fall, Winter, Spring, and Summer. Now they decide to cut on it and to offer it only in Fall and Spring. So, guess what teachers do? They file for unemployment in Winter and Summer.

Expect this kind of seasonal unemployment to spread much more in 2011 as muni financial crisis unfolds.

naveen381   befriend   ignore   Thu, 30 Dec 2010, 11:06am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 41

IMHO there is a good chance of price appreciation of 3-5% in really good school districts. But depends on how much the interest rates rise...

FortWayne   befriend   ignore   Thu, 30 Dec 2010, 11:31am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 42

stock market will go through the roof (positive)

housing will crash even further (thats a positive too)

unemployment will grow (negative) - machines can replace many jobs, outsourcing is cheaper.

My biggest worry is government artificially keeping up certain industries afloat. Because once these bubbles burst it won't be fun. Healthcare bubble, education bubble, housing bubble... it will be interesting* times.

bubblesitter   befriend   ignore   Thu, 30 Dec 2010, 2:32pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 43

We are into 3rd year of a 10-15 year slump.

¥   befriend   ignore   Thu, 30 Dec 2010, 3:26pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 44

bubblesitter says

We are into 3rd year of a 10-15 year slump.

thing is, when does it end? That's the question Japan has taught me to ask.

We knocked the scuttles out of our economic ship by shifting our manufacturing to China. It's good for 80% of the population now, but totally screws 10%:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MANEMP

And as they get liquidated they're going to take people down with them.

The Y2K and dotcom jazz was a good round of reinvestment in tech, we certainly got a lot of useful capital goods and global technical leadership out of that investment.

The story since then though has been tech being bled overseas, too.

But if this chart can be believed:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USINFO

tech is worse than retail! Maybe that's just desk support, dunno.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GFDEBTN

is an utter disaster, and we've got almost half the country belly-aching about government takeover of healthcare already (when what was actually passed was incredibly conservative and status-quo preserving).

Farmers, oil men, gold miners, health professionals, and conservative opinion personalities will be doing well this decade, but who else?

God forbid if we actually have to cut the $6.7T/yr of gov't spending rate we've got now. Each $100B we cut is putatively 1 million jobs directly lost, plus probably another 1M lost in second-order effects as communities lose their gummint jobs.

Total Nonfarm Payrolls: All Employees (PAYEMS) shows that THREE TRILLION of deficit spending over the past 2 years has managed to hold unemployment at the low levels of the previous recession.

If we pump another 3-4T of deficit spending into the economy over the next two years we'll probably continue to tread water. But that's not what the Republicans were sent to DC to do, LOL.

Wish I were several timezones away from this mess. Think I'll go to the beach tomorrow for the sunrise. Sunrise on the west coast is when the new year's hits Japan. Might as well get in the proper mood.

¥   befriend   ignore   Thu, 30 Dec 2010, 3:38pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike (1)     Comment 45

There is one bright spot I guess.

China's young adult population is going to fall 25% over the next 10 years. That will begin to reduce their consumption and raise their wages I'd bet. Not going to help 2011, LOL.

India however:

is scarier stuff. By 2050 there will be 100M people in every 5 year group age 0 to 59. Mind-boggling.

Bap33   befriend   ignore   Fri, 31 Dec 2010, 3:49am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 46

look at those numbers, and then go read my post .... see where water plays a role in hunger and population?? One of you stock market investor studs can make all of us on PatNet rich if you find the source!

CrazyMan   befriend   ignore   Fri, 31 Dec 2010, 3:52am PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike (1)     Comment 47

naveen381 says

IMHO there is a good chance of price appreciation of 3-5% in really good school districts. But depends on how much the interest rates rise…

That chance hovers somewhere around 0.

Kevin   befriend   ignore   Fri, 31 Dec 2010, 4:34pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 48

I'm actually wiling to bet money on a 2 point drop in unemployment next year.

If I've learned anything over the last few years, it's that people grossly over estimate how bad things are going to be and how bad they already are.

Kevin   befriend   ignore   Sat, 1 Jan 2011, 6:22am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 49

Mr.Fantastic says

So people don’t grossly underestimate how bad things are?

Yep, they do. It's almost always one extreme or another. This isn't just with economics either.

Zlxr says

Kevin - I would say that all our Gov’t (Fed, State, Local) have been grossly overestimating how good things are.

Are you talking about what they actually believe, or what they say publicly?

They have an obligation to be optimistic in public. After all, "Consumer Confidence" is one of the biggest factors in the economy.

Cvoc13   befriend   ignore   Sat, 1 Jan 2011, 4:56pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 50

Man, Oh man, did anyone listen to the Porter Stansberry presentation? of CIRA Dec 16th
on www.endofamerica1.com I know seemly poor choice for a URL to get people to take seriously but it auto forwards you to a normal url, I think they might be keeping count.

I am UNSURE about it, so I did not to be seen as endorsing it whole heartily. but I found it at least interesting to say the least, I got the link from a podcast of Frank Curzio, I heard him make reference to him, as is only obvious as he works there. BUT Frank seems to disagree with at least the timing the Porter talks about in this about hour long website audio.

If you are open minded and like to explore things, as I then I would be very interested in what you think AFTER you listen to it. OK? (it fits in this heading as it is talking about 2011) so that is why I felt it was ok to post this here, IF anyone or enough of you don't like my doing so here, I will or Patrick can of course, retract this post. OK Then, in the mean time Happy New Year. Ok, I would enjoy hearing from anyone that listens to it, email me please, if you feel up to it.

artistsoul   befriend   ignore   Sun, 2 Jan 2011, 3:56am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 51

E-man says

Existing home prices in the SF Bay Area as well as nation wide will DECLINE about 3%

Agreed that housing will have a slight drop. Will carry that further to say that the slow bleed off of what is left in the bubble will continue for some years beyond 2011. Many owners of higher tier homes have been holding off selling their homes in hopes of a reversal. At some point, movement will have to occur. The boomer population will bail out at some point. I see homes at the higher end going down 1-3% annually for the next three years....then no appreciation for quite some time. The idea of frequently trading homes is gone for the foreseeable future unless you are willing to eat that realtor fee, the closing costs and realize any lost equity.

Not sure I agree about the gold and silver sliding down. They SHOULD end down since they are inflating like a bubble (said by others previously on this blog). But, I think with the deficit continuing to grow & the debt ceiling raised this year....and with people like Beck and others hawking gold, it may get above $1500 this year. Also, it is obvious that the boomers are about to need Medicare in larger numbers. The current deficit could look small in comparison to 15 yrs from now. That kind of projection has got to be good for gold....unless I'm the only one holding that viewpoint.

Cvoc13   befriend   ignore   Sun, 2 Jan 2011, 3:50pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 52

Anyone take me up on the Stansberry Thing.

EightBall   befriend   ignore   Mon, 3 Jan 2011, 2:31am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 53

Cvoc13 says

Anyone take me up on the Stansberry Thing.

Man that is long - good thing I had some mindless work to do. Scary predictions - but in the end sounds like a 2AM infomercial. Buy gold, no wait better yet SILVER, oh wait there's more! Order my "Secrets to buying some shit that no one else knows about" for three easy payments of $99.99

artistsoul   befriend   ignore   Mon, 3 Jan 2011, 3:12am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 54

Cvoc13 says

Anyone take me up on the Stansberry Thing.

I only made it though part of it. I think Cvoc13 solved the mystery: Stansberry is ApocalypseFuck.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch   befriend   ignore   Mon, 3 Jan 2011, 4:24am PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 55

Buying gold is a great idea if you are being paid to say buy gold like Glenn Beck.

But you can't eat gold.

And you can't defend your family by throwing silver bars at starving neoneazis.

michaelsch   befriend   ignore   Mon, 3 Jan 2011, 8:08am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 56

EightBall says

Cvoc13 says

Anyone take me up on the Stansberry Thing.

Man that is long - good thing I had some mindless work to do. Scary predictions - but in the end sounds like a 2AM infomercial. Buy gold, no wait better yet SILVER, oh wait there’s more! Order my “Secrets to buying some shit that no one else knows about” for three easy payments of $99.99

Exactly. But one doesn't need to listen to his voice if one can read: http://www.stansberryresearch.com/pro/1011PSIENDVD/WPSILC00/PR

As a matter of fact it has a lot of well known info, a lot of simple B.S. and much more of commercial.

The main thing: it's still unclear if the whole stuff is really inflationary. It may as well turn out deflationary. That's because huge debt repayments reduce money supply.

PockyClipsNow   befriend   ignore   Mon, 3 Jan 2011, 8:53am PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike (1)     Comment 57

zombie apocalypse by year end.

You all know in your hearts its inevitable, all those movies simply CANNOT be complete fiction!

Cvoc13   befriend   ignore   Mon, 3 Jan 2011, 9:32am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 58

Thanks Guys, I am sorry I did not know about the TEXT link, as I was saying I was not too sure about it, although I watched Zuckerman he had a lot to say about the Debt.
to http://www.cnbc.com/id/40887670

toothfairy   befriend   ignore   Mon, 3 Jan 2011, 10:47am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 59

Cvoc13 says

Anyone take me up on the Stansberry Thing.

well I'm listening and trying to figure out what he's about to sell me... it's gotta be gold.

Vaticanus   befriend   ignore   Mon, 3 Jan 2011, 11:41am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 60

Predictions:

Unemployment will not improve in any real sense (unless we have a new CCC program or the like) as the jobs that left due to "free trade agreements" and outsourcing continue to be sourced from without.

The number of people on food stamps, and other forms of public assistance will continue to grow.

The prices of food, clothing, gasoline, and health care will continue to rise as will taxes in many localities and states.

A new terrorist attack and/or war-zone will pop up and how the president handles the crisis will determine if he will be a one-termer or "worthy" of reelection.

The new GOP majority in the house will not be able to make any meaningful reforms as the Dems in the Senate and the White House will become the new obstructionists. Of course there will be a lot of compromises hammered out that give the semblance of reform but actually will just make the rich richer and guarantee a relative status quo for the PTB.

The gap between the haves and the have-nots will continue to spark class rivalry.

Images from body scanners will be Wikileaked.

TSA will continue to touch our junk.

In many areas housing prices will decline moderately. In many other areas housing prices will decline more dramatically. In some areas housing prices will hold steady or show modest gains.

Interest rates will not rise.

The campaign to End the Fed will force them to feign concessions and attempt to make us believe they are trying to be more transparent. None of it will be real though and business as usual will continue for the banking cartel.

The drug war will continue to wage, but more and more people will begin to question the practicality of fighting it. The push to legalize and control marijuana will gain significant support.

The federal deficit will continue to grow forcing lawmakers to call for raising taxes and also raising the age of eligibility for SSI and Medicare benefits.

Your December 2011 dollar will buy 90% or less than it will today. Consequently gold/silver will be at least 10% higher by the end of 2011 than today in nominal dollar value. (In reality gold and silver will be worth the same amount of goods and services as they are today. Gold is not a pathway to riches. It is simply a store of wealth. However, unlike the dollar, gold will buy roughly the same amount of stuff in 10, 20 and 100 years as it does today. The dollar will likely become worthless and replaced by a new currency in the lifetime of anyone under the age of 30. But I doubt we will see a new currency in the United States in 2011.)

Troy will continue to promote the idea taxation of land.

Iwog will continue to promote the idea the worst is over.

I will continue to promote the idea that the real heavy stuff isn't going to come down for quite some time.

patrick.net will be a major time sink for many of you reading this post. but it is all good fun.

Happy New Year! Hope your 2011 is rich and full.

Kevin   befriend   ignore   Mon, 3 Jan 2011, 11:53am PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike (1)     Comment 61

PockyClipsNow says

zombie apocalypse by year end.
You all know in your hearts its inevitable, all those movies simply CANNOT be complete fiction!

The Walking Dead comes back on in October, so yeah!

Cvoc13   befriend   ignore   Mon, 3 Jan 2011, 2:49pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 62

I did do some more research, and while he is self serving (Stansberry), least us not forget Soros, and some MAJOR players are all setting up for a DOLLAR demise, so while he might be trying to profit in small terms (Stansberry)

I don't know folks, and I know I am far afield posting here on Patrick.net, so I will back it off, (Sorry Patrick, if you need to remove I understand) http://www.examiner.com/finance-examiner-in-national/george-soros-says-that-america-must-give-up-the-dollar-and-accept-world-currency
Check out what George said, and has moved his wealth in to position, don't forget Soros made his wealth with Currency when everyone thought he was well, wrong.. he wasn't then, and likely not now.

I am OPEN to debate on this subject guys and gals, I am not married to the idea, I am super interested and passionate about this stuff.

Kevin   befriend   ignore   Mon, 3 Jan 2011, 3:32pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 63

Cvoc13 says

I did do some more research, and while he is self serving (Stansberry), least us not forget Soros, and some MAJOR players are all setting up for a DOLLAR demise, so while he might be trying to profit in small terms (Stansberry)

Soros has been wrong on plenty of occasions. He's pretty much never made an accurate prediction about economic trends. He has gotten rich not by predicting economic changes, but by causing them. This worked really well for him in Thailand and really poorly in the UK.

A global currency in and of itself isn't a bad idea, but it wouldn't work with fiat money. There is simply no way to have a truly neutral "world reserve bank" with economies as diverse as exists today.

A non-fiat currency might work, but it's just about impossible to reconcile this with the need for electronic transactions and existing political tension between nations. You think the U.S. and China would ever agree on a uniform monetary policy?

In short, you can't really have a global currency without uniform economic policy, and you can't have uniform economic policy unless you have a unified global government.

The odds of a unified, stable, global government emerging that manages to remain competent and uncorrupted enough to avoid an endless civil war any time in the next 500 years is near zero.

The only real thing that might change that would be some massive scientific breakthroughs. Virtually free energy is one thing that could do it, since resource scarcity would go away. FTL travel and the discovery of other habitable planets would be the other, since you'd then just have planets taking on the role that countries occupy today.

artistsoul   befriend   ignore   Mon, 3 Jan 2011, 3:42pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 64

Cvoc13 says

I am OPEN to debate on this subject guys and gals, I am not married to the idea, I am super interested and passionate about this stuff.

Hi Cvoc13. I just feel like Stansberry was really, really reaching in his examples of how the dollar is no longer reigning supreme. Duh, other nations see our debt load so danger exists. I, personally, think danger exists. But, Stansberry plays on fear. He is worse, in a way, than Glenn Beck because he can actually string a comprehensive argument together. Beck is so ADD...he can't finish a sentence without contradicting himself.

Here's my beef: Stansberry plays on that fear factor by plucking these totally isolated examples of situations where currency other than the dollar is catered to. He mentioned an art gallery in The Hamptons that accepted Euros. Hello! It's The Hamptons ---> they will cater to a European audience as well as rich New York socialites. That's just good business. Or, what about Stansberry's example that some random tourist "Mary Kelley" was just taken aback that she had to drag herself all the way to a bank or post office to exchange dollars for E