2011 predictions.


By michaelsch   Follow   Tue, 28 Dec 2010, 12:16pm   5,586 views   76 comments
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Time to start with them.

Please, please avoid degrading into D vs R fights.

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  1. michaelsch


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    37   11:33am Thu 30 Dec 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    toothfairy says

    Kevin I’m going to go out on a limb and agree with your bold prediction of 2pp drop in unemployment.
    Actually this article nicely sums up what I feel is in store for 2011

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-28/housing-starts-seen-rising-to-three-year-high-with-belated-u-s-jobs-boost.html

    A lot of mumbling about nothing in that article.

    2pp drop in UE? How? Because SOME of 1.4mil unemployed construction workers will maybe find a job? LOL. We have more than 40mil "boomerangs" in USA. Lots of them after some kind of college. They can't get professional jobs, because there are none in this country. (Do you think job will come back from oversees? Hey, it will take several generations of poverty in USA. Or do you think them in BRIC countries will need more managers from USA? Very unlikely.)

    "Boomerangs" are constantly off and on some temporary jobs. They supply much of the UE stats. They are moving back to their parents over-sized houses en mass, and are saddled with incredible college loan debt. (11 times higher than it was 12 years ago). Does anyone seriously think these people will start buying new houses any time soon? In meantime millions of boomers will retire and whoever can will try to downsize.

    In short, demographics are strongly against housing "recovery". If anything it may create some small niche demands.

  2. toothfairy


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    38   11:55am Thu 30 Dec 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    you're talking about a long term secular trend which is pretty meaningless when talking about the cyclical economic recovery we're about to have in 2011.

  3. ¥


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    39   12:01pm Thu 30 Dec 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)  

    toothfairy says

    cyclical economic recovery we’re about to have in 2011

    People talking 'cyclical' don't understand what's going on now.

    If I may:

    This:

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CMDEBT

    broke the 'cycle'.

    For the past 2 years we've been using this:

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FYGFDPUN

    to keep the rubber side down, but it turns out the American people decided last month to see what will happen if we stop gummint spending our children's money now.

    cyclical economic recovery my *ss.

  4. michaelsch


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    40   2:50pm Thu 30 Dec 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    toothfairy says

    you’re talking about a long term secular trend which is pretty meaningless when talking about the cyclical economic recovery we’re about to have in 2011.

    College debt is actually cyclical, of the same nature as housing bubble, and was partially caused by irresponsible policies of Bush.

    However you missed my point. It was just about that article that presented tiny factors (tiny even compared with effects of long term secular trends we'll see during 2011) as something that can do a significant fix.

    BTW, there is another factor that is likely to increase UE rate especially in CA. That's state and muni crisis. Even now it considerably affects UE rate. The thing is "seasonal" layoffs.

    For example, many state and community colleges are reducing classes they offer. Often it works like this: in the past a college had the class offered in all four "semesters" - Fall, Winter, Spring, and Summer. Now they decide to cut on it and to offer it only in Fall and Spring. So, guess what teachers do? They file for unemployment in Winter and Summer.

    Expect this kind of seasonal unemployment to spread much more in 2011 as muni financial crisis unfolds.

  5. naveen381


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    41   7:06pm Thu 30 Dec 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    IMHO there is a good chance of price appreciation of 3-5% in really good school districts. But depends on how much the interest rates rise...

  6. FortWayne


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    42   7:31pm Thu 30 Dec 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    stock market will go through the roof (positive)

    housing will crash even further (thats a positive too)

    unemployment will grow (negative) - machines can replace many jobs, outsourcing is cheaper.

    My biggest worry is government artificially keeping up certain industries afloat. Because once these bubbles burst it won't be fun. Healthcare bubble, education bubble, housing bubble... it will be interesting* times.

  7. bubblesitter


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    43   10:32pm Thu 30 Dec 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    We are into 3rd year of a 10-15 year slump.

  8. ¥


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    44   11:26pm Thu 30 Dec 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    bubblesitter says

    We are into 3rd year of a 10-15 year slump.

    thing is, when does it end? That's the question Japan has taught me to ask.

    We knocked the scuttles out of our economic ship by shifting our manufacturing to China. It's good for 80% of the population now, but totally screws 10%:

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MANEMP

    And as they get liquidated they're going to take people down with them.

    The Y2K and dotcom jazz was a good round of reinvestment in tech, we certainly got a lot of useful capital goods and global technical leadership out of that investment.

    The story since then though has been tech being bled overseas, too.

    But if this chart can be believed:

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USINFO

    tech is worse than retail! Maybe that's just desk support, dunno.

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GFDEBTN

    is an utter disaster, and we've got almost half the country belly-aching about government takeover of healthcare already (when what was actually passed was incredibly conservative and status-quo preserving).

    Farmers, oil men, gold miners, health professionals, and conservative opinion personalities will be doing well this decade, but who else?

    God forbid if we actually have to cut the $6.7T/yr of gov't spending rate we've got now. Each $100B we cut is putatively 1 million jobs directly lost, plus probably another 1M lost in second-order effects as communities lose their gummint jobs.

    Total Nonfarm Payrolls: All Employees (PAYEMS) shows that THREE TRILLION of deficit spending over the past 2 years has managed to hold unemployment at the low levels of the previous recession.

    If we pump another 3-4T of deficit spending into the economy over the next two years we'll probably continue to tread water. But that's not what the Republicans were sent to DC to do, LOL.

    Wish I were several timezones away from this mess. Think I'll go to the beach tomorrow for the sunrise. Sunrise on the west coast is when the new year's hits Japan. Might as well get in the proper mood.

  9. ¥


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    45   11:38pm Thu 30 Dec 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)  

    There is one bright spot I guess.

    China's young adult population is going to fall 25% over the next 10 years. That will begin to reduce their consumption and raise their wages I'd bet. Not going to help 2011, LOL.

    India however:

    is scarier stuff. By 2050 there will be 100M people in every 5 year group age 0 to 59. Mind-boggling.

  10. Bap33


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    46   11:49am Fri 31 Dec 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    look at those numbers, and then go read my post .... see where water plays a role in hunger and population?? One of you stock market investor studs can make all of us on PatNet rich if you find the source!

  11. CrazyMan


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    47   11:52am Fri 31 Dec 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)  

    naveen381 says

    IMHO there is a good chance of price appreciation of 3-5% in really good school districts. But depends on how much the interest rates rise…

    That chance hovers somewhere around 0.

  12. Kevin


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    48   12:34am Sat 1 Jan 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    I'm actually wiling to bet money on a 2 point drop in unemployment next year.

    If I've learned anything over the last few years, it's that people grossly over estimate how bad things are going to be and how bad they already are.

  13. Kevin


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    49   2:22pm Sat 1 Jan 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Mr.Fantastic says

    So people don’t grossly underestimate how bad things are?

    Yep, they do. It's almost always one extreme or another. This isn't just with economics either.

    Zlxr says

    Kevin - I would say that all our Gov’t (Fed, State, Local) have been grossly overestimating how good things are.

    Are you talking about what they actually believe, or what they say publicly?

    They have an obligation to be optimistic in public. After all, "Consumer Confidence" is one of the biggest factors in the economy.

  14. Cvoc13


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    50   12:56am Sun 2 Jan 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    Man, Oh man, did anyone listen to the Porter Stansberry presentation? of CIRA Dec 16th
    on www.endofamerica1.com I know seemly poor choice for a URL to get people to take seriously but it auto forwards you to a normal url, I think they might be keeping count.

    I am UNSURE about it, so I did not to be seen as endorsing it whole heartily. but I found it at least interesting to say the least, I got the link from a podcast of Frank Curzio, I heard him make reference to him, as is only obvious as he works there. BUT Frank seems to disagree with at least the timing the Porter talks about in this about hour long website audio.

    If you are open minded and like to explore things, as I then I would be very interested in what you think AFTER you listen to it. OK? (it fits in this heading as it is talking about 2011) so that is why I felt it was ok to post this here, IF anyone or enough of you don't like my doing so here, I will or Patrick can of course, retract this post. OK Then, in the mean time Happy New Year. Ok, I would enjoy hearing from anyone that listens to it, email me please, if you feel up to it.

  15. artistsoul


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    51   11:56am Sun 2 Jan 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    E-man says

    Existing home prices in the SF Bay Area as well as nation wide will DECLINE about 3%

    Agreed that housing will have a slight drop. Will carry that further to say that the slow bleed off of what is left in the bubble will continue for some years beyond 2011. Many owners of higher tier homes have been holding off selling their homes in hopes of a reversal. At some point, movement will have to occur. The boomer population will bail out at some point. I see homes at the higher end going down 1-3% annually for the next three years....then no appreciation for quite some time. The idea of frequently trading homes is gone for the foreseeable future unless you are willing to eat that realtor fee, the closing costs and realize any lost equity.

    Not sure I agree about the gold and silver sliding down. They SHOULD end down since they are inflating like a bubble (said by others previously on this blog). But, I think with the deficit continuing to grow & the debt ceiling raised this year....and with people like Beck and others hawking gold, it may get above $1500 this year. Also, it is obvious that the boomers are about to need Medicare in larger numbers. The current deficit could look small in comparison to 15 yrs from now. That kind of projection has got to be good for gold....unless I'm the only one holding that viewpoint.

  16. Cvoc13


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    52   11:50pm Sun 2 Jan 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Anyone take me up on the Stansberry Thing.

  17. EightBall


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    53   10:31am Mon 3 Jan 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    Cvoc13 says

    Anyone take me up on the Stansberry Thing.

    Man that is long - good thing I had some mindless work to do. Scary predictions - but in the end sounds like a 2AM infomercial. Buy gold, no wait better yet SILVER, oh wait there's more! Order my "Secrets to buying some shit that no one else knows about" for three easy payments of $99.99

  18. artistsoul


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    54   11:12am Mon 3 Jan 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Cvoc13 says

    Anyone take me up on the Stansberry Thing.

    I only made it though part of it. I think Cvoc13 solved the mystery: Stansberry is ApocalypseFuck.

  19. APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch


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    55   12:24pm Mon 3 Jan 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    Buying gold is a great idea if you are being paid to say buy gold like Glenn Beck.

    But you can't eat gold.

    And you can't defend your family by throwing silver bars at starving neoneazis.

  20. michaelsch


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    56   4:08pm Mon 3 Jan 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    EightBall says

    Cvoc13 says

    Anyone take me up on the Stansberry Thing.

    Man that is long - good thing I had some mindless work to do. Scary predictions - but in the end sounds like a 2AM infomercial. Buy gold, no wait better yet SILVER, oh wait there’s more! Order my “Secrets to buying some shit that no one else knows about” for three easy payments of $99.99

    Exactly. But one doesn't need to listen to his voice if one can read: http://www.stansberryresearch.com/pro/1011PSIENDVD/WPSILC00/PR

    As a matter of fact it has a lot of well known info, a lot of simple B.S. and much more of commercial.

    The main thing: it's still unclear if the whole stuff is really inflationary. It may as well turn out deflationary. That's because huge debt repayments reduce money supply.

  21. PockyClipsNow


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    57   4:53pm Mon 3 Jan 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)  

    zombie apocalypse by year end.

    You all know in your hearts its inevitable, all those movies simply CANNOT be complete fiction!

  22. Cvoc13


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    58   5:32pm Mon 3 Jan 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    Thanks Guys, I am sorry I did not know about the TEXT link, as I was saying I was not too sure about it, although I watched Zuckerman he had a lot to say about the Debt.
    to http://www.cnbc.com/id/40887670

  23. toothfairy


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    59   6:47pm Mon 3 Jan 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    Cvoc13 says

    Anyone take me up on the Stansberry Thing.

    well I'm listening and trying to figure out what he's about to sell me... it's gotta be gold.

  24. Vaticanus


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    60   7:41pm Mon 3 Jan 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    Predictions:

    Unemployment will not improve in any real sense (unless we have a new CCC program or the like) as the jobs that left due to "free trade agreements" and outsourcing continue to be sourced from without.

    The number of people on food stamps, and other forms of public assistance will continue to grow.

    The prices of food, clothing, gasoline, and health care will continue to rise as will taxes in many localities and states.

    A new terrorist attack and/or war-zone will pop up and how the president handles the crisis will determine if he will be a one-termer or "worthy" of reelection.

    The new GOP majority in the house will not be able to make any meaningful reforms as the Dems in the Senate and the White House will become the new obstructionists. Of course there will be a lot of compromises hammered out that give the semblance of reform but actually will just make the rich richer and guarantee a relative status quo for the PTB.

    The gap between the haves and the have-nots will continue to spark class rivalry.

    Images from body scanners will be Wikileaked.

    TSA will continue to touch our junk.

    In many areas housing prices will decline moderately. In many other areas housing prices will decline more dramatically. In some areas housing prices will hold steady or show modest gains.

    Interest rates will not rise.

    The campaign to End the Fed will force them to feign concessions and attempt to make us believe they are trying to be more transparent. None of it will be real though and business as usual will continue for the banking cartel.

    The drug war will continue to wage, but more and more people will begin to question the practicality of fighting it. The push to legalize and control marijuana will gain significant support.

    The federal deficit will continue to grow forcing lawmakers to call for raising taxes and also raising the age of eligibility for SSI and Medicare benefits.

    Your December 2011 dollar will buy 90% or less than it will today. Consequently gold/silver will be at least 10% higher by the end of 2011 than today in nominal dollar value. (In reality gold and silver will be worth the same amount of goods and services as they are today. Gold is not a pathway to riches. It is simply a store of wealth. However, unlike the dollar, gold will buy roughly the same amount of stuff in 10, 20 and 100 years as it does today. The dollar will likely become worthless and replaced by a new currency in the lifetime of anyone under the age of 30. But I doubt we will see a new currency in the United States in 2011.)

    Troy will continue to promote the idea taxation of land.

    Iwog will continue to promote the idea the worst is over.

    I will continue to promote the idea that the real heavy stuff isn't going to come down for quite some time.

    patrick.net will be a major time sink for many of you reading this post. but it is all good fun.

    Happy New Year! Hope your 2011 is rich and full.

  25. Kevin


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    61   7:53pm Mon 3 Jan 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)  

    PockyClipsNow says

    zombie apocalypse by year end.
    You all know in your hearts its inevitable, all those movies simply CANNOT be complete fiction!

    The Walking Dead comes back on in October, so yeah!

  26. Cvoc13


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    62   10:49pm Mon 3 Jan 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    I did do some more research, and while he is self serving (Stansberry), least us not forget Soros, and some MAJOR players are all setting up for a DOLLAR demise, so while he might be trying to profit in small terms (Stansberry)

    I don't know folks, and I know I am far afield posting here on Patrick.net, so I will back it off, (Sorry Patrick, if you need to remove I understand) http://www.examiner.com/finance-examiner-in-national/george-soros-says-that-america-must-give-up-the-dollar-and-accept-world-currency
    Check out what George said, and has moved his wealth in to position, don't forget Soros made his wealth with Currency when everyone thought he was well, wrong.. he wasn't then, and likely not now.

    I am OPEN to debate on this subject guys and gals, I am not married to the idea, I am super interested and passionate about this stuff.

  27. Kevin


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    63   11:32pm Mon 3 Jan 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Cvoc13 says

    I did do some more research, and while he is self serving (Stansberry), least us not forget Soros, and some MAJOR players are all setting up for a DOLLAR demise, so while he might be trying to profit in small terms (Stansberry)

    Soros has been wrong on plenty of occasions. He's pretty much never made an accurate prediction about economic trends. He has gotten rich not by predicting economic changes, but by causing them. This worked really well for him in Thailand and really poorly in the UK.

    A global currency in and of itself isn't a bad idea, but it wouldn't work with fiat money. There is simply no way to have a truly neutral "world reserve bank" with economies as diverse as exists today.

    A non-fiat currency might work, but it's just about impossible to reconcile this with the need for electronic transactions and existing political tension between nations. You think the U.S. and China would ever agree on a uniform monetary policy?

    In short, you can't really have a global currency without uniform economic policy, and you can't have uniform economic policy unless you have a unified global government.

    The odds of a unified, stable, global government emerging that manages to remain competent and uncorrupted enough to avoid an endless civil war any time in the next 500 years is near zero.

    The only real thing that might change that would be some massive scientific breakthroughs. Virtually free energy is one thing that could do it, since resource scarcity would go away. FTL travel and the discovery of other habitable planets would be the other, since you'd then just have planets taking on the role that countries occupy today.

  28. artistsoul


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    64   11:42pm Mon 3 Jan 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    Cvoc13 says

    I am OPEN to debate on this subject guys and gals, I am not married to the idea, I am super interested and passionate about this stuff.

    Hi Cvoc13. I just feel like Stansberry was really, really reaching in his examples of how the dollar is no longer reigning supreme. Duh, other nations see our debt load so danger exists. I, personally, think danger exists. But, Stansberry plays on fear. He is worse, in a way, than Glenn Beck because he can actually string a comprehensive argument together. Beck is so ADD...he can't finish a sentence without contradicting himself.

    Here's my beef: Stansberry plays on that fear factor by plucking these totally isolated examples of situations where currency other than the dollar is catered to. He mentioned an art gallery in The Hamptons that accepted Euros. Hello! It's The Hamptons ---> they will cater to a European audience as well as rich New York socialites. That's just good business. Or, what about Stansberry's example that some random tourist "Mary Kelley" was just taken aback that she had to drag herself all the way to a bank or post office to exchange dollars for Euros. WTG Mary: you are a perfect example of a arrogant American. Really, how on earth those employees at the Anne Frank house can refuse to accept our dollars as admission...I mean, we Americans SAVED Europe. Gosh, ya mean we have to go out of our way to exchange our currency to yours?

    Anyway. I thought it was hysteria...but delivered in a very cool, calm, collected package. I don't like the compromised position that America is in. But, someone like Stansberry (IMO) just operates to meet his self-serving needs (buy his version of the end of the world at $xx.xx). He worries others and adds to the problem rather than working on a solution.

    It will be interesting to read others viewpoints.

  29. The Original Bankster


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    65   12:35pm Tue 4 Jan 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    Xenu is resurrected using advanced Genetics techniques.

    A strong job market emerges for FEMA camps staff.

    Peter P loses 10 pounds.

  30. michaelsch


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    66   12:54pm Tue 4 Jan 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Cvoc13 says

    I don’t know folks, and I know I am far afield posting here on Patrick.net, so I will back it off, (Sorry Patrick, if you need to remove I understand) http://www.examiner.com/finance-examiner-in-national/george-soros-says-that-america-must-give-up-the-dollar-and-accept-world-currency

    Check out what George said, and has moved his wealth in to position, don’t forget Soros made his wealth with Currency when everyone thought he was well, wrong.. he wasn’t then, and likely not now.
    I am OPEN to debate on this subject guys and gals, I am not married to the idea, I am super interested and passionate about this stuff.

    It says: "Soros discusses the need for a managed decline of the dollar and a move towards a global currency."

    There are two questions here:
    1. Will it be a "managed decline" or a collapse, like what Stansberry tries to sell us.

    2. Will it be a global currency with global central bank and the same banking system we have now going global or it will be replaced by a wide array of national/regional currencies and precious metals. If the second happens, it may be indeed good for American economy, since it will discourage irresponsible parasitic financing, while allowing American economy to equally compete and to use its still existing advantages.

    About Soros. He is maybe a good financst, but he is a fanatic of globalization. He actually spent a lot of money on it, spent a lot of money on "nations building" in Eastern Europe. In all small economies he is involved with he tries to suppress their local strength and to make sure they import stuff whenever it's cheaper than producing. In many small countries it caused major damage to their local farming. When their tourism income collapsed during the crisis and transportation costs jumped it turned out it's better to produce locally, but the capacity was gone.

    Ironically, his activities often cause sharp anti-globalization and even nationalist sentiments.
    He invested huge amount of money in Hungary, which has now the worst economy in the Eastern Europe (maybe as the result of his activities there.) It also got the most nationalist government.
    His activity in Latvia actually contributed to the crash of their economy.
    His funding for mediocre education programs had damaged some of existing excelent ones in Russia. (he funded some sex education experiments there and Math competitions that were mostly about accumulated information unlike existing ones that required a lot of creativity.) This made him very unpopular among middle class there. His "anti-corruption" funding in Georgia (his funds pay large parts of income of the top level officials there to make them independent of local kickbacks) is unpopular with Georgian opposition
    Similar thing with his funding of the "orange" revolution in Ukraine, etc.

    The bottom line: dollar decline is probably inevitable, but globalization alas George Soros is not a solution and likely will fail.

  31. michaelsch


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    67   1:01pm Tue 4 Jan 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    artistsoul says

    I thought it was hysteria…but delivered in a very cool, calm, collected package.

    Exactly so. It's very similar to what many cults do.

  32. Done!


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    68   1:05pm Tue 4 Jan 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    Unwanted Dollar drop off station here.

    Tired of that unsightly Cash?
    Pissing it away doesn't help...
    Loosing it on the stock Market? FORGET IT!
    Just look how deflation just cuts right through that filthy money grime.
    Got baked on hard to reach cash?
    Look how Quantitative Easing dissolves it away instantly!
    Is your unruly money keeping you up at night?

    Send them off Ted's wayward home for unwanted Dollars. We care for all denominations, your dollars will rest in eternity by a babbling brook with chirping birds.

    Come on Down, we can accommodate wheel barrows, to dump trucks.

    Be sure to try some of our other products like Wealth Distribution, and Reverse Economicosis where hundreds of trillions are pumped out of the worlds poor through staple commodity manipulation and stored in one of our Jumbo Cash horde jumbo-tron thingies to never touch the hands of the poor again.
    Works right under your nose.

  33. thomas.wong1986


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    69   10:50pm Thu 6 Jan 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    By the time Jan11 numbers are released may well show decline well past Sept 09.
    So Iwogs claim Sept 2009 well proved false....

    CAR Median Price by Region
    Sept 09-10 Sep10-Nov10 Sep09-Nov10
    Change 12 m Change 3 mo. Change

    C.A.R. Region

    High Desert 7,140 (380) 6,760
    Los Angeles (2,640) (7,390) (10,030)
    Monterey Region 35,860 (23,490) 12,370
    Monterey County 20,000 (5,000) 15,000
    Santa Cruz County (1,500) 9,500 8,000
    Northern California (18,430) (3,690) (22,120)
    Northern Wine Coun 15,420 (27,940) (12,520)
    Orange County 13,740 (8,360) 5,380
    Palm Springs/Lower 9,510 (6,050) 3,460
    Riverside/San Bernardino
    18,660 (5,430) 13,230
    Sacramento (2,420) (7,910) (10,330)
    San Diego 2,800 (3,360) (560)
    San Francisco Bay 27,400 (9,860) 17,540
    San Luis Obispo (34,650) (4,880) (39,530)
    Santa Barbara County64,170 (108,930) (44,760)
    Santa BarbaraSouth 129,750 (5,250) 124,500
    NorthSanta Barbara (13,870) 15,000 1,130
    Santa Clara 67,000 (30,020) 36,980
    Ventura 11,620 320 11,940

    Sept 09 to Sept 10 up 349,560 12 months
    Sept 10 to Nov 10 down (233,120) 3 months

    http://www.car.org/newsstand/newsreleases/2010newsreleases/septsalesprice/
    http://www.car.org/newsstand/newsreleases/novsalesprice/

  34. Bap33


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    70   8:32am Fri 7 Jan 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    The Original Bankster says

    Xenu is resurrected using advanced Genetics techniques.
    A strong job market emerges for FEMA camps staff.
    Peter P loses 10 pounds.

    almost a hiku type of thing. Peter P was a good resident of PatNet

  35. todd5704


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    71   11:32am Fri 7 Jan 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    I will either lose my house and end up (fill in the blank, cuz I sure in the hell don't know) or be able to retain it after ruining my once stellar credit score through the Making Home Affordable Program. Cheers!!

  36. LAO


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    72   12:16pm Fri 7 Jan 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    michaelsch says

    EightBall says

    Cvoc13 says

    Anyone take me up on the Stansberry Thing.

    Man that is long - good thing I had some mindless work to do. Scary predictions - but in the end sounds like a 2AM infomercial. Buy gold, no wait better yet SILVER, oh wait there’s more! Order my “Secrets to buying some shit that no one else knows about” for three easy payments of $99.99

    Exactly. But one doesn’t need to listen to his voice if one can read: http://www.stansberryresearch.com/pro/1011PSIENDVD/WPSILC00/PR

    As a matter of fact it has a lot of well known info, a lot of simple B.S. and much more of commercial.

    The main thing: it’s still unclear if the whole stuff is really inflationary. It may as well turn out deflationary. That’s because huge debt repayments reduce money supply.

    First of all calling that piece of crap a VIDEO.. is laughable.. Why did he even bother making a video of text against a boring white background... It's an audiobook at best... His referencing of how much time and money it cost to make his "VIDEO" makes him a liar or at best deeply deluded. Whoever he paid to read that amateur script filled with grammatical errors was worth a $20 bucks at best.

  37. toothfairy


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    73   8:16pm Fri 7 Jan 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    todd5704 says

    I will either lose my house and end up (fill in the blank, cuz I sure in the hell don’t know) or be able to retain it after ruining my once stellar credit score through the Making Home Affordable Program. Cheers!!

    i'd choose ruin credit over lose house AND ruin credit.

  38. jvltdjntdc


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    74   9:14am Sat 8 Jan 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    More fear-monger news about solar flares that supposedly will knock out the major electrical power grids in 2012.

    More dilutions of the US dollar and more manipulation of precious metal prices to keep Americans in US dollars. More bailouts of foreign banks and too-big-to-fail privately-owned institutions that have integrated with the US government, suporting a domestic fascist central banker oligarchy that already exists worldwide.

    A 10% to 20% fall in residential real estate in the US, due to a new wave of option ARM resets and resulting foreclosures.

    More manipulation of the US stock market to create the appearance of wealth and a strong US government regardless that the American standard of living is declining.

    More market manipulation by the PPT and the BIS's Financial Stability Forum in advance preparation for a sudden collapse of the US dollar.

    Some of these things will happen in 2011. All of them will happen in the next five to 10 years. The central bankers and the BIS do not share the timing of their activities, which makes it impossible to determine the timing of their non-televised agenda.

    Good luck everyone!

  39. jvltdjntdc


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    75   9:33am Sat 8 Jan 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Educational News Flash:

    The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) is a corporation owned by the 169 central banks (including our Federal Reserve) worldwide, each of which is privately owned (many of them owned by the same individuals). There are only 195 countries in the world, which means that most governments of the world already have their interest rates and money supply managed by the same set of very wealthy and powerful private individuals.

    Despite that all of these governments have the ability to create debt in their own currency at zero interest, they choose to use the central bankers for this service, at interest paid by taxpayers as profit to the central bankers. Some of this money ends up in supporting infrastructure, some of it is profit, and some of it goes to funding the communist world government agenda of these same bankers.

    They already own and control the world's financial system. They can do whatever they want, you are their slave to some degree (a tiny battery in their large machine), and they will even brainwash you through their media to believe they do not exist and that they are not doing this to you. You may even go so far -- due to your long-term brainwashing -- as to attack those who tell you what is going on, which is a form of support and enablement for the central bankers and their agenda.

    Okay, now that you are educated and aware, let this affect your predictions, perhaps making them more accurate and educated. The information I posted here is not up for "debate" by a collectivist and pre-programmed herd that may form an emotional opinion about the reality we live in, since it is based in very hard and very well-documented fact.

    Yes, sometimes it happens that the individual is correct, when the herd is wrong. Safety cannot always be had in numbers.

  40. jvltdjntdc


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    76   9:45am Sat 8 Jan 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    In response to those quoting Soros about a US dollar collapse, and trusting Soros as a factual source, allow me to quickly reveal how manipulative the media is. You quote Soros because you have no one else to quote about a US dollar crash, who makes sense and has media prestige.

    Soros co-owns the DTC, which is also known as Cede & Co. and is part of the US Federal Reserve (just one of the world's 169 integrated central banks). This makes Soros a central banker. Do you trust Bernanke? He is also a central banker, or at least employed by them.

    Here is hard evidence that Soros already knows what is going on, but is not sharing it with you through the central banker-owned and controlled media...

    http://socioecohistory.wordpress.com/2010/08/05/new-imf-strategy-document-charts-launch-of-%E2%80%9Cbancor%E2%80%9D-global-currency/

    This is the IMF's own hard documentation of their plan to replace the US dollar with a new world reserve currency, called the Bancor. The Bancor is an idea dreamed up by John Milton Keynes, who is one of the two communists who created the World Bank. The World Bank and the IMF are the two financial arms of the United Nations.

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