Property Forum
Trustee Sale at the courthouse on 05/07/10 at 10:00AM located at 190 N. Market Street in San Jose, CA.
First loan is $335k
Second loan is $150k.
This 1,375 square foot townhome has 3 beds, 2.5 baths, 2 car garage. I believe the HOA is $145/month. You might be able to pick this up for just above $335k. Zillow’s estimate is $418k. Instant equity. This townhome is relatively young and has high ceilings. Nice neighborhood, next to park and tennis courts. The neighbor just paid a 1,165 square foot townhome with 2 beds and 2.5 baths for $390k. The catch is you have to show up at the courthouse with cashier’s checks. Basically, you have to pay cash for it.
Sorry for the short notice. I will give more notice next time.
Good luck.
| Date | User | Source (optional) | BR | Asking Price or Rent | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 Jun 11th | Patrick | http://www.redfin.com/CA/Milpitas/1499-G... | 3 | $519,000 | |
| 2010 Jul 3rd | Patrick | http://www.movoto.com/real-estate/homes-... | 3 | $499,000 |
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97 comments on “1499 Gingerwood Dr, Milpitas, CA 95035”
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Joined: 2 Dec 2009
Posts: 17
Comments: 665
San Francisco, CA
E-Man, Pkennedy
Here is a must own stock and a short summary why for your benefit. I have distributed this communication to all my close friends and family so it is after careful consideration.
Investment case, Transocean
•Price driven by news not fundamentals, eventually fundamentals will prevail.
•And boy what fundamentals, 36B in assets, vs 16B in liabilities, a book value of 20B. Your shares are more than free as the assets generate 3B in after tax earnings and 5B+ in operating cash flow. All this for about 15.5B. Earnings are going to be softer, no doubt. It is on a down-cycle, but long term, nothing’s changed. The BV is support for current price, very little downside from here.
•RIG will have no blame or liabilities against them. In fact, insurance covers their physical lost completely (I think there is a 200M+ gain). A few liability contingency from the lost lives will cost the company, but this is hardly material.
•Rig is international and drills all over the world. The domestic drillers will have a challenging ride over the next year. However, RIG only does 10%-15% of its total offshore drilling in the Gulf of Mexico. Thus financially, RIG is in great shape vs. the domestic drillers. If nothing else, long international drillers and short domestic drillers for guaranteed profits although I don’t think that is necessary.
•Deepwater drilling is an incredibly lucrative business, which is much more effective and profitable than coastal and mainland drilling. There are only four companies in the entire world that can play in this market.
* eventually the ban would be lifted as the industry employs too many people with broad impact and too much money at stake. Chevron is desparate to have this ban lifted which is a testament that deepwater drilling is inevitable.
I don’t know when shares will go to pre BP level, but it will. Buy with confidence. Surest bet in quite awhile
Joined: 9 Nov 2009
Posts: 13
Comments: 576
Milpitas, CA
SF ace,
“Here is a must own stock.” That’s all I need to hear from you. No summary is needed.
I just looked it up, and I concur with your recommendation. I’ll drop $5G (1/2 position) on this tomorrow.
Thx.
Joined: 9 Nov 2009
Posts: 13
Comments: 576
Milpitas, CA
SF ace,
Got a question for you. An investor brought me a deal. It’s an 8-plex in Richmond. All are 2bed/1bath and currently rented for $975/mo each, which gives a yearly revenue of $93,600. She wants $625k for it. No negotiation from me yet since I don’t know much about Richmond other than it’s a high crime area, and the only good/better neighborhoods are the ones close to the water. I believe you know the area relatively well. Can you give me a brief summary of the Richmond area or neighborhoods or I shouldn’t even invest there. I can get the address of the property if need be.
Thanks.
Joined: 9 Nov 2009
Posts: 13
Comments: 576
Milpitas, CA
Also, can you give me your opinion about BAC? The stock is currently selling for 35% below book value.
Joined: 2 Dec 2009
Posts: 17
Comments: 665
San Francisco, CA
without more detail, I am sure it is the most dangerous area within Richmond (iron trianagle or close to it), that’s why the yield is so great and no family in their decent mind would live in a 8-plex in Richmond. The best areas in Richmond is in fact point richmond by the bay and Hilltop Richmond, a little up North past San Pablo. I think is more more commonly referred to as county club vista. Homes up there rent for about 2000-2500 a month, for around 280K-350K.
High yield = high risk. If the yield is so good, why are they trying to unload it. You’ll be dealing with applicants and tenants that is generally regarded as the worst there is.
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
Ok I’m going to bite. But let us know if anything goes horribly wrong on this one
Obviously we’re not holding you responsible, but just in case we miss it! I missed out on the other two you advised on!
I’ve had a couple of conversations regarding oil with a friend who practices law in texas and deals with oil quite often and he said that he had met up with some people from Petrobras, and that Petrobras company culture has sure come a long ways and now acts and behaves much more like one of the big players. He seemed to think that their business mentality had shifted more towards one of the big oil companies from a “brazil/government owned/smaller player” company.
I’m not sure where they stand right now. My wife in Brazilian and her father is a banker there and he has loved that stock for quite a few years. So it’s a stock I’ve been thinking of getting into at some point. Anyways, if you’re ever looking at Petrobras add those two “points” to your consideration!
Thanks for the tip. I’ve put in a buy order as well! If this were to ever pop like those solar companies you recommended, I owe you dinner.
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
Ok I’m in at $47.00. I read a couple little legal arguments on this thing and what is covered and what isn’t, it looks like all the quipment, a 700M clean up fund and insurance on the personnel lost. The only thing not covered was lost profits from not operating this site for the next 3 years @ 550M, but on the flip side they have the contract to do the relief wells, so that might counter this a bit.
Joined: 6 Apr 2009
Posts: 37
Comments: 144
BOYS
have you heard of EMAIL? Please take these discussions private.
You are HIJACKING this thread about a specific property.
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
Sometimes things need to be hijacked.
Joined: 6 Apr 2009
Posts: 37
Comments: 144
@ pkennedy
this whole thing smells like a PUMP-and-DUMP scheme… lolz!
Joined: 9 Nov 2009
Posts: 13
Comments: 576
Milpitas, CA
See above please. Still need an opinion on BAC. Please don’t tell me you underwrite for the banking industry as well.
@ pkennedy,
He likes PBR. I believe he used to own it. I like it too. I haven’t bought RIG yet. $47 is a good buy. You’re up 1% already :o)
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
@permanent_marker
Perhaps you should read all of sf_aces comments first. He’s one of the only ones that backs up his comments with actually data, and presents the math and logic behind it. vs “It’s going down 75% by next year! gut feeling! saw it on fox news! must be true!”
@e-man
The only counter argument for Rig I’ve seen is “BP is waiting until they have this thing capped, to prevent PR issues, once it’s done they’re going to try and sue everyone under the sun”
I figure this is a better (longer) term investment than anything I would have picked on my own
Joined: 9 Nov 2009
Posts: 13
Comments: 576
Milpitas, CA
It’s time to delete the rec’s.
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/cszc0/iama_gulf_of_mexico_drilling_engineer_ama/
Take it with a grain of salt, but interesting none the less. An interesting Q&A from a driller in another company.
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
Ok I have a most likely simple question.
What is the difference between RIG and RIGN.VX. VX is the swiss exchange, but why are they so divergent? And the swiss version only appears to have started sometime in june?
RIG today +$0.81, Day’s Range: 44.30 - 46.30
RIGN.VX today -$2.65, Day’s Range: 46.54 - 48.59
Volume is incredibly low, but they both share the same news, at least on yahoo. Indices includes ^DJUSEN, which means it’s oil and gas related. What am I missing?
Joined: 9 Nov 2009
Posts: 13
Comments: 576
Milpitas, CA
Don’t know. I was hoping to be able to buy it at $42, but doesn’t look like that’s gonna be the case. It reversed nicely today on good volume. I’d likely buy it tomorrow if it moves higher again on good volume. Will see. Don’t worry, I won’t let you die alone :o)
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
You were waiting for $42? Could have told me that
I have no idea where this is going, it looks semi positive. They have earnings shortly which should be interesting, because there will be a couple of floating numbers as far as I can tell. Losses due to not having this rig online, obviously the spill, hurricane season coming up, and Diamond, I believe the 2nd biggest rig owner has suspended dividends and is hoarding cash in hopes that little guys will be pushed out of the gulf due to new regulations and cost of doing business there. If they’re buying, I’m wondering what RIG will do.
I figured this looked like a good buy, as SF ace pointed out (who then went suddenly quiet!) but I picked up a large position here. I told my wife later I had picked it up and she said what do they do? I said they have offshore rigs, like the one that blew up in the gulf. “Oh ok, but not THAT company, right?”
Joined: 15 Jun 2007
Posts: 2
Comments: 1224
This can’t miss property was bought at the courthouse steps for $406,100 by Alvernaz Partners LLC (on June 10, according to PS). Still listed for $499k with 53 days on the market.
PS - OTF beat you with his BP play.
Joined: 9 Nov 2009
Posts: 13
Comments: 576
Milpitas, CA
$406k, not a good deal as a flip IMO. If it were an owner-occupy, it is a decent deal.
Yes OTF did. I hope he didn’t listen to me and made some money with the trade :o) Apparently you own some BP too. Well, resistance is at $40. Good luck with the trade.
The reason I suggested him to put in a stop loss was because he said it was A LOT OF MONEY for him. If you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen. Can’t afford to lose, don’t gamble. That’s all.
May I ask what you do for a living?
Joined: 9 Nov 2009
Posts: 13
Comments: 576
Milpitas, CA
pkennedy,
RIG is under-valued. It is selling below book value by 30%. Warren Buffet calls this “a margin of safety”. Don’t over analyze it. He gave us a good recommendation.
DO cut its dividend to 75 cents from $1.38. Totally understandable due to the low profit this quarter. DO pays very nice quarterly dividends. Look it up on Yahoo Finance.
It’s hell of funny your wife said that “Oh ok, but not THAT company, right?”
I guess you just shrugged or shut up.
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
@EBGuy
I dont trust BP. While it’s probably a buy, the potential of litigation will go on for decades. And the possibility of something bad happening still, seems very high!
Good buy on BP though! It did recover very nicely! I thought for sure it was going to sit low for awhile!
Joined: 2 Dec 2009
Posts: 17
Comments: 665
San Francisco, CA
Pkennedy, sorry for the silence, hope you understand it can get busy for awhile and I have frequent Patrick less. In any case, rig is a fundamental play which means th value will be realize over time when the news are quiet. No news is good news. Buy discounted bv is a good floor and rarely fail, especially on assets that generae roi. Stay patient. If you invest so much as to be uncomfortable, you are holding too much.
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
I agree, I shouldn’t have used the term pop. I figure it’s going to be a pretty stable increase over the next year +- a year, which keeps this money “safe” from me investing in something I’ve found myself
Ok I’m not that bad. But it’s nice to have someone to bounce ideas off who isn’t Realtor motivated in me buying.
When I said large position, it is large, but overall not a huge % wise of overall investments. I’m not that concerned about it, because of the 30% margin that is built into this stock, it’ll eventually recover.
I’m in computer engineering, so analyzing things until their dead is what I do by nature! Unfortunately I have to learn to do less analyzing of stocks to find values! Right now everything I look at looks fairly valued. I’m trying to learn from you guys on how to cut out the crap to stick with the principals.
Joined: 30 Jul 2010
Posts: 1
Comments: 4
Nice looking place.
Joined: 23 Jul 2007
Posts: 1
Comments: 13
Maybe this was already posted somewhere, but I thought this was interesting.
Milpitas beating out other Silicon Valley cities such as San Jose, Santa Clara & Sunnyvale.
Best places for the rich and single
We’re not saying you’re a gold digger. But you could follow the money to these 25 affluent cities, where singles are abundant.
http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2010/moneymag/1007/gallery.best_places_rich_single.moneymag/6.html
Joined: 15 Jun 2007
Posts: 2
Comments: 1224
Nice call on RIG! Didn’t have time to put in my due diligence… sigh… still may go in on a dip.
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
Seems to be a decent miss on earnings.
Although, not too bad, considering the circumstances.
Joined: 2 Dec 2009
Posts: 17
Comments: 665
San Francisco, CA
It’s pretty neutral. Lots of one time charge, both ways. Missed on top line, which was important but expected and signal weaker earnings next quarter, due to lower day rates and stacking rigs from GOM drilling ban.
The bottom line is it is severly undervalued based on BV and earnings. This is a gem in one year. Cash dividends of 3.19 will be confirmed soon. once Macondo is behind them, it will become an institution favorite again.
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
Yeah I reread a few things, it looks like they were almost dead on. The accidental payment + insurance payout brought things within about 1% of estimates.
I like the stock. I was almost hoping they would hold onto that cash to buy out some rigs like DO is planning on doing. I’m going to hold this position. It would be nice if it stays above what I bought it for too, that will keep my wife happy
Fundamentals are irrelevant to her!
Dividend will come out after the tax laws change though, oh well. It’ll be worth a couple of thousand anyways.
Joined: 9 Nov 2009
Posts: 13
Comments: 576
Milpitas, CA
Great call as usual. Can’t give a comment on BAC?
pkennedy, IF you’re holding a little more than you’re comfortable with, this morning (or maybe tomorrow) was a good chance to take some chips off the table. Add some position back if it comes back down to the mid 40’s. Also, the stock will drop $3 on the ex-dividend date, just in case you don’t know about this.
EBguy, you haven’t answered my question above :o)
Joined: 2 Dec 2009
Posts: 17
Comments: 665
San Francisco, CA
E-Man,
(me and partners) got burned selling BAC puts in 2008 when it went from 50 - 5 dollars in short time. A certain individual made 100x the bet. From that perspective, BAC is something I haven’t look carefully into for anti sentimental reasons. I’ve learned something from that so we’ll never be in that position again.
In any case, I always felt that GS is the moneymaker in the high net worth industry and has all the top talents and specialized high margin service and JPM has the best suite of banking service. I’ll also stay away from C in the meantime as it seem like the US treasury is selling them around 4 something. This industry is pretty tough to understand even for me. Unlike RIG, you know book value is pretty close to market value and allow for some known difference, book value for BAC is a lot trickier.
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
@eman
I’m comfortable with what I have, and over time I might add to it as well. I’m hoping that momentum will keep the stock from losing the $3 on those dividend days! I guess I shouldn’t look at dividends at bonus’s in that way, I just like the idea of money showing up in my accounts.
Actually it doesn’t matter the size of the position, my wife thinks the same way. If I let it sit for 30 years, and got out exactly what I paid today for them, that would be considered a win in her books.
@sface
I’m starting to realize I shouldn’t be fighting the currents looking for smaller companies to invest in, if JPM is the best, go with the best. If OIL is making money, buy oil. (Or people who do business with them..) I wish I had learned that 10 years ago instead of in the last 2-3 and only implementing this year.. sigh.
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
So we’re sitting at about 10700 on NYSE now. I know SFace said he figured we would grind between 9800-11500 this year, and we’re sitting in about the middle. We’ve had a decent run from 9800 up to 10700 now. Reports have come in, things look about the same, I thought a little worse than last quarter for what I watched. Any predictions on where we might see things going over the next several months? I’m guessing we’re going to head up, due to the time of the year, more than anything else. The Sep-Dec run.
As always, I’m always curious so see what information you guys are using for your thoughts.
Joined: 2 Dec 2009
Posts: 17
Comments: 665
San Francisco, CA
I still think we are rangebound for the rest of 2010. Sell as we top out around 11K and buy around 9800. Sep-Dec is dominated by retail talk, which I suspect would not be good this season.
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
Do either of you have a good book recommendation on “events” that take place throughout the year that effect stocks?
I seem to always be caught off guard with upcoming results, quarters ending, GDP announcements, fed announcements, etc. There are times when I can see the market ticking up, and I’m wondering what is likely to happen next. I was hoping to have something I could easily reference to say “Next week we’ll have the following coming out… ”
I found this one, it seems moderately interesting, but I’m wondering if there is a better source, or something online even.
http://www.amazon.com/Stock-Traders-Almanac-2010-Investor/dp/0470422181/ref=wl_it_dp_o?ie=UTF8&coliid=I3QGEZ6RZ4A28Q&colid=2I3XEOTAR767P
Joined: 2 Dec 2009
Posts: 17
Comments: 665
San Francisco, CA
No, that is micromanaging. If you read the WSJ daily, you won’t miss much on what’s going on in business.
Joined: 2 Dec 2009
Posts: 17
Comments: 665
San Francisco, CA
Pkennedy and E-man
Here is another recommendation.
Buy VISA around $70 and make it a buy and hold. I don’t want to get into the detail behind it other than it is a fantastic buy at that price with fundamental and technical support.
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
I definitely don’t want to get into micro managing, but there have been times I would have been interested in having some “upcoming” knowledge, rather than last minute / 1 day late knowledge. I would rather know we’re going to be having a fed discussion next week than finding out the day of, what was said.
Visa? It’s 25-30% off but is that enough to offset all the new banking regulations? I’ll take it though! Thanks!
Joined: 9 Nov 2009
Posts: 13
Comments: 576
Milpitas, CA
Sorry guys, I’ve been busy getting my 2009 tax return done. Yeah, I’ll get $7,300 back, and I already claimed 3 on my W-2 last year. Hey, this should be good for 100 shares of Visa :o).
If you think this is bad tax planning, 2008 was even worse. I got $12k back.
Visa is a great company with a great business model and a solid support at $70. I agree “Buy, buy, buy.” What financial melt down? It doesn’t impact Visa or Mastercard.
pkennedy, I just picked up some PBR and some more SBUX. If you want to own SBUX long-term, I think this is where you buy.
RIG MIGHT pull back to the low $50, but don’t panic. This is the consolidation phase b/4 it moves higher IMHO.
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
Well I tossed in a buy for a few visa shares, but this month has been expensive for me due to my brother in law visiting, so I didn’t add as much to my savings account as I normally would have. sbux would make my sister in law super duper happy. I could sell some Rig and purchase more Visa if it hits 70.
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
Hmm starbucks has been on an upward trend for the last couple of years, any reason you’re looking at that one?
Joined: 2 Dec 2009
Posts: 17
Comments: 665
San Francisco, CA
Pkennedy, E-Man here is a small cap worth exploring, CCME. It was recommended/forwarded by a colleague in Goldman’s HK.
- Explosive Growth
- Clean balance Sheet
- unheard of 45% profit margin and 80% ROE.
- 80% insider and exec salaries are stunningly low.
- looks like a hard to penetrate business
I’m not sure what is going on here other the stock looks extremely undervalued (reverse merger) Let’s share some thoughts about this one.
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
Looks interesting. Advertising can be difficult to get into, but a huge outfit can just bully it’s way in, and profits for them can be so massive that the bully aspect is a near $0 cost to them.
Chinese business is completely unknown to me. I haven’t ever been over to china to really get a good grasp on their culture over there. In general, I see extremely low profit margins on manufacturing in the sub 2% range, which is just plain scary. Although it goes with their work ethic of working hard. Having known many first generation parents they seem to hold these thoughts of small gains over time will pay off. Then I hear of stories of friends going over there for family dinners and spending like $30,000 on a meal! So I’m not exactly sure how money is distributed over there, and how advertising works.
Since I’m in an advertising based company right now, I have gained some in depth knowledge of this area, and it appears that there are two types of companies out there. Those making very little for their ad space, like $1/1000 viewers and eeking out a decent living off thise! and those corporation who can charge $150/1000 viewers. Not too much in between, and the higher rates seem to go directly to those companies that are known, and to those companies who just “assume” they have to pay this much to get any decent advertising. (Eg Apple, Dove, IBM, etc). While companies like google adwords will pay out like $1/1000 views!
One thing I’ve noticed in advertising is that the US is so far ahead of the game compared with any other countries I’ve been to. My wife is from Brazil, and we’ve had some of her family/friends come up here and they are just hammered with ads, they don’t know how to deal with them! I’ve seen this is other countries in the middle east as well. The companies over there seem to be working off our ad models from the 1970’s because it works for them. The bigger companies who are multinational are hiring locally, so they get the 1970’s advertising as well. It works, because the population hasn’t learned to tune it out yet. Each year advertising has to ratchet it up a bit more because we get better at tuning out crap. As for my company, we get some our highest click through rates in these 3rd world countries because of this!
- For me, advertising is hard to break into. New players get just absolutely dismal rates, the “known” players are paid a kings ransom.
- Advertising in other countries seems very very dated in most cases, but it works.
- I’m not sure what the chinese media market looks like, and how effective these ads are.
- On a bright note, these guys have ads in several locations, so they could lose one deal without totally going under and/or starting over.
Those are my primary concerns with a company like this.
Joined: 2 Dec 2009
Posts: 17
Comments: 665
San Francisco, CA
Here’s some good analysis from someone from seeking alpha. Of course they are self serving but the points should be considered carefully.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/205019-china-mediaexpress-china-s-hidden-gem-part-1
http://seekingalpha.com/article/205022-china-mediaexpress-china-s-hidden-gem-part-2
“CCME’s management has strong motivation to meet their 60% growth targets over the next 2 years to acquire another 14M shares reward. By then the total outstanding share of the company will be 54.5M, which at today’s stock price, gives the company a market cap of $615M. Assuming that management will meet their growth target, with $140M of cash, and expected earning of $90M this year, the forward PE ex-cash is:
Forward PE(ex-cash) = $(615-140)M/$90M = 5.3
With 3 year earnings growth forecast above 35%, the PEG is a mere 5.3/35 = 0.15 with a free cash flow yield well above 27%. FCF yield above 17% is already fantastic for a Chinese stock.
To get to a 17% FCF yield, the forward PE should be 14 or so. 14 x $90M should give CCME a valuation ex-cash of $1.26B. Adding back the cash of 140M, we have $1.4B. With 54.5M shrs outstanding, my real price target would be $25.7/share.”
It’s about risk vs. reward and I trust my source, this one is a fantastic buy under $10, but I may consider picking up some now. This one reminds me of Focus Media FCMN with different growth path.
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
I’m just looking at yahoo, they’ve been in business since late 2007? 2.5 years?
Does that effect anything, when you look at a company?
Joined: 2 Dec 2009
Posts: 17
Comments: 665
San Francisco, CA
According to the 10K, the business commenced operation in Nov 2003. In Oct 2007, they entered into a big agreement to be a stategic alliance partner to establish the rights to advertise. That is around the same time, when the private investor took over a shell public company and take it public through a reverse merger. (where the public company got eaten and taken over by the private party)
The second quarter 2010 results was tremendous. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-MediaExpress-Holdings-bw-1991280177.html?x=0&.v=1
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
Ok, I just read the whole article, pretty interesting article and pretty in depth.
The whole TM business seems to have just added complexity to their business while that company offered little to them and seemed to cash out fairly quickly. They appear to be almost out of the picture now, with everyone pulling their money out and just holding warrants?
Based on my experience with advertising, *if* they have a good sales team, the growth prospective looks doable and most likely without being side tracked with a MA. Direct sales offer *HUGE* potential. Doing direct sales for people on shuttles to the airport, etc could definitely offer them some premium advertising.
Aside from the whole deal with TM, I would say it’s a pretty good deal. Of course, as this guy states, TM is the cause of the low pricing to start with.
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
“That is around the same time, when the private investor took over a shell public company and take it public through a reverse merger.
(where the public company got eaten and taken over by the private party)”
Ok this is a little confusing. TM took over a shell public company (A company that has made it onto the stock exchange but does nothing else really(?)) , the public company became the dominant company at this point? Where does CCME fit into this? What did TM do to CCME at this point? What is TM now?
That aspect got a little confusing.
Joined: 15 Jun 2007
Posts: 2
Comments: 1224
Here’s another company I know of that went public the reverse merger route several years ago; the SF Business Times had a pretty good article on reverse mergers that featured them.
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
This reverse mortgage makes sense, and I was actually asked to help on setting up some shell companies about 10 years ago for this purpose.
How TM fits into this fold is still confusing to me. They get a shell company, a company that is doing business and Tm and blended them together then pulled out. I’m still not sure how much value they added, or what their true purpose was. It seemed they wanted to hold the stock at 11.50 so they could liquidate their position and hold onto warrants for essentially free.
Joined: 2 Dec 2009
Posts: 17
Comments: 665
San Francisco, CA
It’s a way of going IPO without going IPO. There’s really no public financing as the shares are still closely held. This company is penny pinching frugal.
I love the insider action on this stock, directors buying at 12-13 and the big guy holding 33%.
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
Well the company looks interesting, and I think I might do a small spend on this. Unfortunately, at this point, spends are essentially coming from monthly savings! Too many good buys and too little money now! argh.
I have a couple of questions on Rig (I can find them myself, I’m just wondering if you know off hand), Rig took a dive during 2008 from roughly 120-150ish down to 50ish during the crash. It recovered to 80ish, while most other stocks seemed to have regained most of their position. Is this primary due to the price of oil never recovering? Are they paid a % of the oil they pump + daily fees? Or is it a flat rental?
From what I’ve seen, they’ve basically gotten off on this disaster yet their stock is still held back. Their losses were decently minimal and some of it was even replaced with the relief well operation. Are there other major hurdles on decent recovery on this stock? Or put another way, is there anything major I should be looking out for that might pull the rug out from under this stock?
Joined: 9 Nov 2009
Posts: 13
Comments: 576
Milpitas, CA
Interesting stock. The numbers look great. The stock appears under-value. However, it is my opinion that this is a speculative stock. So only gamble with the money that you can afford to lose :o)
The stock is in a short-term up trend. Might pull back as low as $10.50 with the up-trend still intact. Put a stop loss at $8 so you still have some shirt. The worse case is giving back 1/2 of the gain from the solar stocks :o)
pkennedy, “Hmm starbucks has been on an upward trend for the last couple of years, any reason you’re looking at that one?”
Yes, the over-all market gave a sell signal in May; however, sbux’s up-trend remains intact during this period and currently sitting at the long-term support. Unemployed people are still not giving up on their $5 coffee, so I say it has pricing power. It pays a 2.2% dividend, too :o)
Edit: Oh, and the company is still growing its earning after re-structuring a couple of years ago. ROE is 25% plus.
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
With such low volume on that stock, I would think putting in any stop loss might be risky! A few people could yank it down quickly without you being aware! Insider trading would be my biggest fear.
Yeah I consider this more of a gamble than what I’m used to, but I also see that there is value here and that at least one accountant has looked at it and given their ok on the financials
I have to wait until late next year before I can sell my AMD holdings, this is the cycle I’ve been waiting for. The new revision will be coming out, and Nvidia has been booted from a couple of markets. They’re going to be working on a CPU/GPU combo now, which they’ll fail at. The lost income from chip sets (Intel isn’t giving them a license), and AMD/ATI having a great product out is forcing nvidia on the defensive which they haven’t had to do in a very long time. Nvidia I think will really tank over the next 18 months, both losing more revenue and fighting to keep up with ATI with less R&D. This should help give AMD a good chunk of the GPU market. Their new CPU/GPU combos are coming out and so far they look pretty good.
I’m not sure about their die shrink, but I think they’re getting there, it’s been slightly delayed. Intel has been doing a great job of their tick/tock strategy, which is die shrink, then CPU architecture upgrade, die shink, then CPU architecture. AMD is competing right now, and they were never about having the biggest/best only a good value proposition. In the last 8 years or so they’ve been touching the crown processors and surpassing them a few times. They know how to be scruffy, but I think next year they’re going to have some good products and decent earnings with their new architecture + die shrink, while Intel only has a new architecture coming out.
SFace was correct on this stock, not making any money. Growing through new share sales. When they do make money it isn’t much. They have swapped out a lot of debt though for more favorable terms recently, they’re small and lean now. I’m hoping that those numbers will show up next year before they have time to ramp up spending to match income.
Joined: 2 Dec 2009
Posts: 17
Comments: 665
San Francisco, CA
“I have a couple of questions on Rig (I can find them myself, I’m just wondering if you know off hand), Rig took a dive during 2008 from roughly 120-150ish down to 50ish during the crash. It recovered to 80ish, while most other stocks seemed to have regained most of their position. Is this primary due to the price of oil never recovering? Are they paid a % of the oil they pump + daily fees? Or is it a flat rental?”
It’s all about day rates. Good day rates drives profit and their assets (rigs) are worth more mutliple. If you are in the limosine business and you have a contract worth 100K stream for two years but now an = limosine can only fetch a 50K contract. You’ll make a lot less money and the limosines are worth a lot less.
What drives day rates, oil companies desire to explore and replenish their reserve. With good oil prices, Capex by oil companies are expanded. Capex always goes to where it is most efficient, so even though deep exploration is expensive, they are proven to provide the best reserve. The easiet way to figure out where day rates are heading is to look at CapEx budget for Chevron, Exxon, Royal, etc. These budgets flow to drillers. Macondo was producing 50K barrels a day, which gives it a daily revenue of 4M revenue to BP. BP lease the rig for around 500K a day. There are profits to be had for both the upstream oil and drillers if oil prices are high.
Day rates are under pressure as a result of the 6 month drilling ban in the gulf of Mexico. Once the ban is lifted, there will be another run up in price as day rates pressure will be alleviated.
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
More or less what I expected. Two things that I overlooked and miscalculated were the day rates changes during good/bad times. I figured most contracts were long enough that good/bad times would blend together, and that Capex would be fairly evenly distributed, meaning there would be sudden bursts of exploration. Secondly, I figured that most rigs would be in use, or close to 100% would be making money, leaving little room for growth there.
I figured the only way to increase revenue was a linear slow growth of buying new rigs and placing them online, vs a boom/bust cycle with varying contract terms.
Thanks for the insight here! Energy always seems to be a good investment, and I’m really trying to shore up my knowledge in this industry. News sites either show the technical reasons to buy a stock, or they explain that news is good/bad, but don’t often explain indepth why it’s good/bad, they just assume you’re either in the know, or going to buy because they said it’s good.
Joined: 15 Jun 2007
Posts: 2
Comments: 1224
Energy always seems to be a good investment, and I’m really trying to shore up my knowledge in this industry.
I am still drinking the peak oil Kook-Aid, but you definitely need to go in with one eye opened. A couple of years back I thought natural gas had peaked in the US (ala oil in the 1970’s which actually did peak), but got hammered by CHK (along with their CEO, Aubrey McClendon). Thankfully, no margin for me on that one…
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
Lots of Natural gas, Canada has just masses of it, they started using it all for the tar sands though. When oil dropped, they apparently cut back on usage and that went into the market pushing natural gas down. Or so I’ve heard anyways, I don’t follow natural gas prices much though!
Joined: 15 Jun 2007
Posts: 2
Comments: 1224
Ahem, I know Canada is just a subsidiary of the US, but first you’ve got to get it here.
Also, bear in mind, Just three years ago, the conventional wisdom was that U.S. natural-gas production was facing permanent decline. U.S. policy makers were resigned to the idea that the country would have to rely more on foreign imports to supply the fuel that heats half of American homes, generates one-fifth of the nation’s electricity, and is a key component in plastics, chemicals and fertilizer.…Believing the U.S. would soon need to import liquefied natural gas from overseas, companies such as ConocoPhillips, El Paso Corp. and Cheniere Energy Inc. spent billions on terminals, pipelines and storage facilities.
Also, a quick link to historic production in the US.
Joined: 2 Dec 2009
Posts: 17
Comments: 665
San Francisco, CA
Intel and McAfee, what is going on? A strange marriage.
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
Very strange and slightly alarming.
Last company I worked for had board members from McAfee, and from what I could gather, all those virus companies “shared” all details on all new virus, including the free virus providers. No one wanted to be left out in the cold without knowledge of a new virus, so they all had sharing agreements. No one wanted the liabilities and/or marketing risks associated with “missing” a big one.
At least that is what I gathered.
WHY Intel would want software like this makes little sense, other than they’re looking 5-10 years out and realizing they’re hitting limits and that they need to follow IBM’s path. This could be a disaster for America, if we lose Intel as a hardware designer. It would leave AMD (good for me) as the only one pushing the envelope. It would open up the market to competition as well. Right now x86 is so far ahead of everything else (albeit it’s a crappy technology) that no one can catch up. Even Itanium after a decade has made no headway. No other processor technology has even come close. There have been some sweet designs, but no one wants to bother with them.
I’m guessing this is the first of many acquisitions for Intel, which is going to really diversify it’s business.
Joined: 15 Jun 2007
Posts: 2
Comments: 1224
Intel and McAfee, what is going on?
I must say, that threw me for a loop, too.
Here’s my take (which I’ve also seen in news reports & blogs). Smartphone / Tablet OSes will be the dominate, ubiquitous computing platforms of the future. Android and the iPhone OS hold a growing share in this market, but Intel (teamed up with Nokia) will be making a push with Meego (combining their previous Linux efforts — Moblin and Maemo). The MeeGo OS skews more towards mobile (truly open) computing than the smartphone side of things (restrictive in the application space) . Making sure these mobile systems are secure would add to consumer confidence and help Intel increase its processor share in this market which is dominated by ARM and Mips based chips.
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
The problem with phones is that very few people develop for them. The applications aren’t that difficult to port (to some degree). If your product is successful it can make HUGE profits. Which means successful products will be ported to anything that comes out.
Android is good, but could be run on anything. Apples OS is in the same boat. Same with Microsofts OS.
There are limited numbers of hardware combination’s, which makes it easy to port and program for and to switch CPU’s for. Think of any of the many consoles out there. The games are great because programs only need to deal with ONE set of drivers to make their games work. They don’t have to worry about 500 types of CPU’s, video cards, sound cards and all their derivatives. A phone is much like a console in that respect. It has a certain number of applications, it’s going to run at a certain speed, it’s got a limited number of options.
What does this mean? Phones and tablet PC’s aren’t tied to any one CPU, which makes investing in them HUGELY risky. Apple, Google, ARM developers, or another design company could come along with a killer product that could win masses of wins and essentially devastate everyone else.
X86 is different. There aren’t *ANY* alternatives. There haven’t been viable alternatives since day 1! Motorola with it’s 68000 chips had a CPU that was *SO* far ahead of Intel, yet it couldn’t get itself put into any hardware. It eventually even lost it’s longest supporter Apple. Transmeta tried to come up with something. Intel itself tried to break away with the Itanium, but people just wouldn’t budge. They aren’t going to do it now either.
So Intel has the X86, which is a cash cow with essentially no viable options for anyone to break into the business.
Phones/Tablets are very specific and CAN switch CPU’s every couple of years to whoever is best. Market share won here could be gone the next year!
Joined: 2 Feb 2010
Posts: 1
Comments: 976
pkennedy says
RISC processors….
pkennedy says
Actually there were several others along with AMD… Cyrix, C&T, Via.
Joined: 2 Feb 2010
Posts: 1
Comments: 976
EBGuy says
Happens all the time around here.
Joined: 2 Feb 2010
Posts: 1
Comments: 976
SF ace says
Think of it this way. The TV you know of today will be replaced with something open to hackers, bugs and viruses of tomorrow. Not sure it makes sense, you cant even get the TV mfg today to put a recording device (Hard Drivce) into they Flat screen TV today to record your programs so you dont need a VCR/DVD recorder.
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
RISC processors have been around longer than the Itanium and haven’t gained any market share. Cyrix and Via are x86 based chipes, or were.
A hardware company purchasing a software subscription based company isn’t that common.
CPU’s already handle virus blocking, and hacking attempts in many forms. So it’s not a very obvious joiningat all.
Joined: 2 Feb 2010
Posts: 1
Comments: 976
Yes its been around, RISC was the promised future of desktop computing along with UNIX-OS. Didnt quite happen, large market share, as some wanted.
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
Like I said, there are no other players to take out x86. Lots of people have tried, they’ve all failed miserably, even Intel tried with the Itanium, spending 10B on it, but no go.
Phones and small devices are different, because they can be uprooted, so the best player wins. Look at the consoles, they’ve all been fairly successful, and aside from the xbox360 have been using weird chips and chipset! Phones are the same, as long as a phone has a single OS working, it’s good to go.
Joined: 16 Jun 2007
Posts: 8
Comments: 2407
E-man says:
>>You might be able to pick this up for just above $335k.
But you realize that the 2nd lien of $150k does not just go away, do you not? If you buy at this auction, what you buy is a mortage and not a house.
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
As a side note, my Visa purchase @70 went through today, although only 50 shares. I’m not sure how low it might go before we hit a bottom, but I’m guessing it won’t drop by too much more, even if it follows the market. Next month, I’ll see if I can pick up another 50-100 shares or look at CCME instead. Thanks for the heads up on that stock as well.
Joined: 15 Jun 2007
Posts: 2
Comments: 1224
as long as a phone has a single OS working, it’s good to go.
And that is no small feat as you try to shove more functionality into the phone. Definitely an interesting space to watch as customized RISC chips (most ARM cores) currently own the space. Intel is trying to drop in from above with an x86 architecture (optimized for power consumption, which is where custom RISC chips eat their lunch). If they’re successful, they bring all those apps that have bring written and compiled for x86 cores. A betting man, though, might say that it’s Intel that is going to get taken out from below, by power efficient ARM cores (disruptive technology?). See this. There are a number of ways to create a power-efficient server chip for hyperscale applications like those that run at Google, eBay, Facebook, and so on. One is to rip damned near all of the guts out of a Xeon processor and make an Atom chip, which Intel has done. Another is to beef up a MIPS or ARM RISC processor aimed at fairly modest workloads so it can handle server workloads. A number of niche server chip makers have deployed MIPS designs, and now it is ARM’s turn to take a crack at Intel.
Joined: 16 Jun 2007
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Comments: 2407
EBGuy, no doubt advances in server CPU technology will percolate up from the low end and low power applications.
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
@EBguy
The difference between applications for the phone and applications for the PC are generally complexity. Porting applications and maintaining them on another architecture is massively time consuming. However, because the phones are essentially on ONE type of hardware it’s relatively easy. The phone doesn’t have a USB, printer, RS232, Soundcard, DVI, VGA, joystick port, etc. It has a couple of ports but not much else. There are hundreds of sound cards. Thousands of video cards. Thousands of mother boards. Thousands of 3rd party devices that all need to work in an OS. It’s a massive project just for MS to maintain windows. The sheer number of combinations is incomprehensible. They have MASSIVE testing server rooms setup with thousands of computers to test windows.
Computers and phones aren’t even remotely close. A phone is a simple device compared with a full blown computer.
AMD was involved in the phone market and has since sold that business. Intel has been in that business many times. A phone is interesting, but it’s also a business that you can quickly and easily port everything to. 2 years, and all legacy stuff can be thrown out practically! Not so with computers.
x86 is probably one of the *WORST* computer designs out there. The original 8086 was horrible. The 286 made it worse. 386 even worse. 486/586/pentium4/amd 64 just added to the mess. But it became more and more powerful with each step, but everything is a nail to that processor. Itanium has some great stuff in it, but it never took off.
Same with server machines. Google might use X chip, but not many other companies are in a position to do that. It’s expensive to make a chip. Even if it’s faster and more power efficient than an x86, the x86 is here today, it’s fast today, and it’s incredibly cheap today.
CPU and Server chips will likely gain from these markets, but those markets aren’t going to ever touch these cpu’s. I’ve been waiting for 20 years. I’ve used all the 3rd party chips and loved them. The 68000 series was so incredible and I used it for a long time. But the x86 had the R&D due to the market share. It’s so complex now, that no one has a chance to enter this market. Nvidia will fail spectacularly.
This market is mature though, and we have little need for more speed. More efficiency would be nice. Servers will drive this. Cores are important, so that will be pushed further as well.
Joined: 15 Jun 2007
Posts: 2
Comments: 1224
pkennedy, I think we are (mostly) in agreement. I’ll try to point out when (and if) we aren’t, so we don’t end up talking past each other (like engineers are famous for doing!)
A phone is a simple device compared with a full blown computer.
Mostly agree (especially the part about legacy driver support). At the same time, the OMAP processor (variants used in Droid, Nokia N900 and PalmPre) contains multiple, specialized processing cores (a general purpose ARM core + a DSP + audio). This degree of specialization (and integration) meets the needs of mobile computing market (read: power efficient), but does present some challenges when migrating to the next gen platform (have fun porting that DSP code!) I’m not sure how Android handles this (or if it even uses the DSP for video decode, etc.) but I know that Maemo (Nokia linux) has a habit of abandoning older platforms (see N770 -> N810 -> N900). But as you say, that’s a virtue, not a vice as it gets us the latest goodies on a new phone/tablet! I think that open source is helping to take the pain out of specialized cores (allows companies to sell chips, not software).
Google might use X chip, but not many other companies are in a position to do that.
I know of a company that took great care in its hardware abstraction layer. They could (and did), fairly easily switch horses (CPUs) midstream depending on a best of breed strategy or target market. The code base could be easily compiled and run across multiple processor types (Alpha, x86, Mips). At the same time, driver support was limited to what was sold with the system and a limited number of options (much easier on the server side).
Speaking of legacy driver support, I recently Ubuntu-ized a relative’s computer. I remember having a bear of a time trying to find the correct (internal, removable) wireless driver on XP for this system. Ubuntu didn’t load the driver by default as it didn’t meet their open source licensing restrictions (I think), but it did allow for a painless install under Hardware Drivers (went out to the intertubez and downloaded it). Very nice (never touched the command line)! No need to consult forums.wtf.windoze.hardware.com as I had to do for XP.
This market is mature though, and we have little need for more speed
Definitely agree with this; it’s what Clayton Christansen calls technological overshoot. Time for that crappy ARM CPU to disrupt (or not?!)…
Nvidia will fail spectacularly.
You keep saying this and I have no idea what you’re talking about. I’ve got to look it up (whatever IT is
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
A single company can do what you’re talking about. But they have to be massive in general and usually building their own software. You could put your web server software on any hardware now a days, but the cheapest bang for the buck is x86. Even if it’s specialized. Specialized has the draw back that you never know if the company will remain solvent for the next generation. Anything you’ve “counted on” could be lost.
For the most part, anyone buying any software will stick with x86. Anyone developing their own will stick with x86. The small number in there will move to another platform because it works for them.
None of those technologies will disrupt the PC. While we don’t fully appreciate the hardware, we also waste is horrendously with terrible code. There isn’t a chance an ARM or other processor will replace the x86.
In a couple of years, many of the x86 patents expire I believe. Nvidia is working on their own CPU/GPU combo. I don’t believe they’ll get anywhere with it, and it will fail spectacularly. AMD is about to release their next generation architecture for servers, and mobile. Mobile will no only have x86_64 but will have a GPU built in, giving it the power to do fairly intensive graphics without the need of a video card add-in. This will reduce the number of chips in a system (lower cost) and reduce power draw.
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
Btw, I spend most of my time looking at new hardware and what it can do. I spend a lot of time trying to figure out how to get power usage down as well.
So all new hardware is important to me. Nothing so far has come close to an x86 based system in the last 15 years.
Joined: 15 Jun 2007
Posts: 2
Comments: 1224
For the most part, anyone buying any software will stick with x86. Anyone developing their own will stick with x86.
This, as much as anything else, is what x86 dominance is about. A credible stack is needed to challenge the Windows (& Apple OS X) x86 program. I imagine a shift to “the cloud” could also change people’s perception of what they need for usability. Here’s an interesting tidbit, Moorestown (AtoMs targetting the mobile market), will be the first Intel chip to dispense with PCI bus support (polling kills battery life, you don’t need it that space). On the handset (& tablet) side of things, MeeGo will be the one to watch for open computing (as opposed to the more restrictive iOS & Android). I agree that on the desktop (and desktop mobile space), x86 will continue to dominate.
Nothing so far has come close to an x86 based system in the last 15 years.
Cell is impressive (especially if you need the float point ops). Shocked to see the dominance of Cell and Nvidia’s CUDA based platforms in the HPC (high performance computing) arena. Nvidia currently leads with FLOPS/watt (and add in per $ and per unit volume — kills the AC bill, though).
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
It really comes down critical mass, not quality. Cell is impressive. Atom is impressive. Transmeta was very good! Via has good stuff. Itanium is great too. Risc has been out forever, and great. No one has even come close to a critical mass. Not even Intel could hit a critical mass with Itanium, which they spent something like 10B making.
Cell phones have switched processors/OS’s/software every couple of years.
Consoles have swapped out processors every model. From the original coleco’s, ataris, ninentdo’s wii, xbox 360’s, etc. The market can hit critical mass without any issues.
Cloud is “neat” but of little practical use for 99% of the population. I use it, it’s neat. It’s no disruptive technology right now.
The biggest threat is more software shifting to the browser, meaning as long as a computer runs a browser, any machine can be used. But we’ve had that with Java forever, and it never disrupted anything either.
x86 can’t even get their new hardware instructions accepted and used! We’re still building for pentium/486 based computers! Barely touching any of their “cool” instructions. x86 can’t even get people to change their coding methods to utilize any of the new super powers they offer!
x86 isn’t going anywhere. Not even AMD/Intel can influence the market.
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
CCME.
I’m just wondering what is going on with this stock, it looks to be on a long sliding path now. We’re down to about 9.40 this week, with little change in direction for this stock.
I guess it could be said to just be following the market currently?
Joined: 2 Dec 2009
Posts: 17
Comments: 665
San Francisco, CA
small stock, low volume, technical breakdown. Support at 8.60’s and then 7’s.
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
How often do you use technicals when pricing a stock and/or selling one?
I’m just wondering how technicals play into your buying/selling strategies, and how they play into value buying?
Joined: 2 Dec 2009
Posts: 17
Comments: 665
San Francisco, CA
You’ll have to know what you are dealing with. 33M shares outstanding and 350K avg daily volume (In this case, the effect of 3M+ dollars exchanged for a 300M+ market cap company is rather large) causing lots of price movement, tells you this is a techincal stock. 95% of the action enter and exit within a month. From an option writer perspective, it is really easy to manipulate. There are lots of other signs as well. In this case, I weigh technicals more than fundamentals. although I never buy a stock without solid fundamentals.
Buyer at 8.65 and on my short term watch list.
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
So a 1% trade per day is considered high? I guess I figured 1% ish a fairly relative number for many stocks. Maybe not for a small cap. I would have also assumed the higher number trading hands makes it harder to manipulate, or is it the fact that an option trader only needs a few million to move the entire stock, vs the high 1% turn over rate?
How long would you look to hold a stock like this, or in general any stock? Do you revisit the pricing very often and/or sell based on a quick jump in price? Such as rig, it jumped up 20% or so and I thought of selling, but then I figured I would be playing a buy/sell game of trying to capture short term profits? Or is this a viable strategy for me to look at, and just assume if I “miss” buy high by mistake one time, it doesn’t matter because there is so much upside potential, that it’s eventually going to go up anyways and I might just have to wait it out a bit longer?
When taking advice, I like to have a good idea of how a person works across the market. Taking one piece of advice without understanding the underlying strategy can lead to a disaster, so hence my many questions.
Joined: 15 Jun 2007
Posts: 2
Comments: 1224
The biggest threat is more software shifting to the browser, meaning as long as a computer runs a browser, any machine can be used.
Agreed. That is what I meant when referring to the cloud.
It’s no disruptive technology right now.
That’s what’s so hard about disruption. By definition (Clayton Christensen), it sucks, but works in a niche market. And then it eats your lunch (and market share). Certainly will be an interesting market to watch and see if it gains a foothold.
x86 can’t even get their new hardware instructions accepted and used!
Insightful comment (cough, cough, as I run Ubuntu on my 10 year old laptop). That’s what so interesting about the mobile market, as difficult tasks (video processing) do use the special purpose processors included in the SoCs for efficiency reasons. And as you pointed out earlier, the cellphone/mobile folks don’t have to worry about ‘legacy’.
Joined: 2 Dec 2009
Posts: 17
Comments: 665
San Francisco, CA
“So a 1% trade per day is considered high? I guess I figured 1% ish a fairly relative number for many stocks. Maybe not for a small cap. I would have also assumed the higher number trading hands makes it harder to manipulate, or is it the fact that an option trader only needs a few million to move the entire stock, vs the high 1% turn over rate? ”
It’s relative, the point is it takes relatively little money to move the stock, hence it is more riped for trading.
“How long would you look to hold a stock like this, or in general any stock? Do you revisit the pricing very often and/or sell based on a quick jump in price? Such as rig, it jumped up 20% or so and I thought of selling, but then I figured I would be playing a buy/sell game of trying to capture short term profits? Or is this a viable strategy for me to look at, and just assume if I “miss” buy high by mistake one time, it doesn’t matter because there is so much upside potential, that it’s eventually going to go up anyways and I might just have to wait it out a bit longer?”
That’s really tricky and not easy to answer and really the difference between making good money and not. If I knew the answer, I don’t need to work as well. It’s like playing poker, how to squeeze every last value bet and succeeding in this critical area. I just trust my experience. Since it is a techical buy, it should be a technical sell as well in the short term. Sometimes if I have a strong conviction about long term value, I keep a core amount as well. A lot of people plays the techincal and keep a core position.
As you can see in the stock market for the past tens years, buy and hold is not the correct strategy anymore. Making money requires quick buy and quick exits.
Joined: 9 Nov 2009
Posts: 13
Comments: 576
Milpitas, CA
SF ace says
Now that’s funny :o)
There are many trading strategies pkennedy. You just have to pick ONE method and hone your skills.
I’m with SF ace. I like to buy on technicals, but it must be a solid fundamental company. Bought 100 shares of V on Friday at $70.25. I know nothing about CCME that was why I didn’t buy it.
Buyer of VLO at $15.95. Sold VZ several days ago at $29 (a little early), and will be a buyer again at $27.50. Just coffee money you know.
I feel that we have one more down day before rebounding to the upside.
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
I’m just wondering how you would play something like visa/rig? They’re value buys, but at the same time RIG took off and jumped 20% very quickly on me, which I would think would be a good technical time to sell it even though it’s still in the value arena. I’m guessing you’re considering Rig and Visa to be value buys, so would you see any point in doing technical trades on them at this point?
Or better, would you do technical trades, on them? Does your trading style incorporate those types of trades? Perhaps not what you would recommend, but how you would normally play a buy like this?
I figure holding for a year will yield good results, buying and selling might yield some decent results as well, of course I might just miss the entire gravy train if it takes off with constant few % gain per month for the next year or two.
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
@E-man
I’m actually looking to change my strategy from a mess to something more reliable
So while we all need our “own” strategy, I find it really important to understand why someone is taking X action and recommending it. I learn best when I understand all the little in’s and out’s of each trade vs a straight recommendation.
People always bash Cramer, but from reading his books (they were interesting, not great books for investing) and having a slightly better understanding of him, I think he’s able to convey some good teaching lessons to his audience. The ones who try and implement his exact buys/sells probably don’t do well, but the ones who learn a bit about how to research a stock probably do gain.
Joined: 9 Nov 2009
Posts: 13
Comments: 576
Milpitas, CA
There is no sins in taking profit. It’s harder to know when to sell than when to buy. If it goes up 20%/month or less, what’s the likelihood of it goes up 240%/yr? :o)
You will kick yourself for giving back all the gains and see the stock down 10% from where you bought it.
Let’s put it another way. What’s your GOAL FOR RETURN per year? 10%? What’s the maximum are you willing to lose on each trade? If a stock goes up 20% in a month or less, you could sell it and sit on your gain for a while. If it goes up some more, well too bad. If it drops, you’ll be smiling :o)
I agree you have to come up with a strategy. I recommend go to Investor Business Daily (IBD) website and read up on it. There are a lot of information there. I even subscribed to it for 2 years. I went with the Monday special and it cost me around $198/yr back in 2003 & 2004. I learned a lot of what I know from IBD.
My rules are pretty simple. During volatile market, stop loss at 3% to 5% from a technical buy; sell at 10% to 15% above the technical buy. During a bull market, stop loss at 7% to 8% from a technical buy; sell at 20% to 25% above the technical buy.
Basically, if you’re right 1 time and wrong 3 times, you’re breaking even. If you’re right 1/2 of the time, you make $$. Pretty good odds hah :o)
I just looked up my wellstrade account. I started out with about $20k this year. Year to date, net gain of $650 (was up about $1,200 before this market slide :o). Total dividends received year to date is $859. So I’m up $1,509 or 7.5%. Not too shabby huh? Enough $$ for daily Peet’s coffee and taking my wife out to lunch occasionally.
I hear this guy (Phil Grandy) on the radio from 12:00 to 1:00PM on Channel 1220AM. He offers a trading lesson for $39.95/month. He’s very funny, but I don’t know much about his trading skills.
SF ace should know a lot more abou this than I do since he’s doing it for a living. This is not a place for a trading lesson :o)
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
Thanks for the update e-man, it helps me also understand where you’re coming from! I’m probably aiming for something between the two of you. Doing some technical trading, but mostly value investing. Right now, with the markets gyrating like they are, it seems like just going for a high/lows strategy will pay off. If you miss a cycle, wait it out.
I’m putting about 3K/month into my trading account. Sometimes more. I don’t have a 401K program anymore, so I consider it also 401K savings. When the brazilian Rais takes off, I transfer money down there. I currently get 6.5% interest down there. For the last 5 years, the currency has gone from roughly 2.40:1 to 1:80, holding at 1:80 for most of this year. It hit 1.57:1 just before the global melt down, and then spiked to 2.4 for about 2 months, dropping off about 15 cents per month there after, settling at about 1.80 this year. I bought mostly when it was 2.20-1.95.
I was *really* hoping that elections this year would yield a sarah palinesq contender to scare investors off, but they’re all been rather bland. The female-gorilla-fighter turned VP has been doing a great job of softening her appearance up, which has reduced the tensions I was hoping for
Oh well! 6.5% isn’t bad for the near term. I’ll either lock it into land, or transfer it back to US currency as it’s cyclical spiral out of control, which I suspect will be in 2-4 years.
Joined: 9 Nov 2009
Posts: 13
Comments: 576
Milpitas, CA
SF ace,
pkennedy and I will kiss you if this turns out to be true. LOL.
Transocean Rises After Norway’s Fredriksen Considers Take-over Bid.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-01/transocean-rises-after-norway-s-fredriksen-says-he-may-bid-for-rig-owner.html?cmpid=yhoo
Joined: 2 Dec 2009
Posts: 17
Comments: 665
San Francisco, CA
It won’t be true. Rig is calling the shots, not seadrill. (If they say it, they won’t do it). I say this from someone who is in the M&A industry and know what it takes to get a deal done. It does highlight the value though.
I would love to see the drilling ban lifted and get the shares back into the 70’s. All my friends and family are in as well.
Joined: 15 Jun 2007
Posts: 2
Comments: 1224
On the Aug. 24 E-man said: I feel that we have one more down day before rebounding to the upside.
Hat tip to E man. I held off a day on my WFC purchase and got in low. I then sweated it out for a week hoping there would not be a total collapse. I’ve got a stop in now so hopefully it’ll be a winner (unless the MM take me to the cleaners).
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
So far, Rig has been a great winner for me
While I’m not giving out kisses… lots of thanks are due!
So how would you guys play this one out. I’m eventually looking at getting property in Brazil. Probably for rental purposes right now. Their mortgages are so expensive that prices are kept semi-down. 12% a year keeps + inflation adjusted keeps mortgages down. They’re starting to introduce new home buyer packages, which shot pricing way up for any homes within that category. I suspect over the next 10-15 years, things will stabilize and house appreciation will be significant as longer term more affordable mortgages become available to more people. That being said, I have some money in Brazil right now at 6.5% interest. On top of that, the last couple of years have seen 20+% increase in currency value. As stated below, I think the currency is ready to correct within a year or two.
http://www.brazzilmag.com/component/content/article/89-august-2010/12362-brazil-may-offer-tax-cuts-to-encourage-long-term-lending-by-banks.html
This isn’t a well written article, but I’ve read a couple showing debt issues and growth issues that will likely lead to a currency correction. Brazil manufactures most of what it uses via 70% tariffs to protect it’s locally produced goods. But with these massive jumps in the currency value, I’ve started to notice FAR more chinese goods showing up on the shelves. Obviously china is exploring other markets, but the currency had to get to a certain level before they could compete. Now they are. Now Brazilian companies are having a harder time exporting as well. Many products are getting too expensive to export now. So I figure something has to give.
What do you guys think are my best options to protect/invest in this case? For me, I have a couple things going for me. My wife is Brazilian, so we can push through the paper work on buying/investing pretty easily. Father-in-law is banker, we’ve got at least one real estate agent in the family, and a couple of lawyers in the family. So buying land should be decently easy. Renting out is easy. I rent to someone who has to provider a guarantor, the guarantor has to own 2 pieces of property, it’s how they rent down there! Leases are roughly 3 years. If they don’t pay, I let the guarantor know. If he doesn’t pay me, I simply file a complain and *ALL* of their bank accounts are locked. No more access to their bank accounts, they can’t even get a cell phone until this is resolved. It’s extremely harsh. Rental units don’t include a lot of what we provide. When we rent a place here, we expect a working refrigerator, stove, and perhaps a SINK, but those don’t come with places down there. No Sink. wtf.
I can buy land, buy into the brazilian stock market (Maybe buy something solid like petrobras), get a loan at about 12%. I can also transfer down a decent amount of cash to pay off a loan at any time or buy property. End result is to own land down there, with hopefully a couple of rentals.
I’m going to assume the currency is going to go on a slightly wild ride, within 1-5 years. Knowing that, and what I have at my disposal, what tactics could I employee to best maximize a return down there?
If the currency starts tanking, I was thinking I could buy land + get a loan. When it starts to stabilize, shift money from the US down there to pay off the mortgage, hopefully at a far better rate.
I guess I could invest in the stock market down there, buying into something like petrobras, which should negate any currency fluctuations since it’s selling product on a world market?
What other tactics might I want to look at?
Oh yeah my 6.5 is compounded every like 3 days. They deposit money into my savings account *all* the time. And it’s tax free income down there.
Joined: 9 Aug 2010
Posts: 1
Comments: 20
Pasadena, CA
pkennedy says
Wow, no wonder there’s such horrendous income distribution in Brazil. There’s no way for the poor to climb up the social ladder, and there’s virtually no way for the rich to fall off a cliff there. The economic system there is clearly rigged to maximize the profits of the cash-rich, and to oppress the poor with high interest rates, and nearly impossible to obtain mortgages for anyone except those with lawyers, bankers, and real estate agents in their family.
The only thing that would make it even better than your serfs(renters) having their cell phones cut off when they don’t pay you the rent on time is if they actually still had a debtor’s prison. How dare the lower classes become unemployed all of a sudden and choose to feed their children instead of honoring their 3 year indentured servant contract(lease) with their master (landlord). Hell no, cut off their cell phone immediately!!!
The serfs on the left pay rent to those on the right:
Joined: 8 Jul 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 797
Redwood City, CA
Uh no one is going in there to collect rent, to buy or rent anything out. I’m talking about the other side, that is where I would be buying, and renting out. That would be the side with the individual pools.
And the guarantor is the one who gets nailed. He has a minimum of 2 properties and gets everything denied as well. High interest rates are due to inflation, and actually slow the economy down right now.
Social ladder comes from staying in school, and unfortunately that doesn’t always happen. They’re paying parents to keep their kids in school now. The whole middle class is definitely growing! Florinopolis has an amazing economy, they’ve taken education seriously and you won’t see beggars around. I was fairly surprised, my mother-in-law who is heavily vested in education was explaining all of the programs they’ve started and the effects they have had on the peoples lives.