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Post the WORST shadow zipcode you can find!


By robertoaribas   Follow   Fri, 26 Oct 2012, 2:09pm   2,078 views   36 comments
In Scottsdale AZ 85250   Watch (1)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

Ok, with zillow's new semi-shadow home search, let's see some comparisons...
go to zillow, search a zip, then click fliters to see the data.

I just searched Phoenix AZ's zip 85042
By Agent(128)By Owner(1)New Homes(14)Foreclosures(9)Pre-MarketForeclosed(52)Pre-Foreclosure(192)Make Me Move(25)For Rent(79)Recently Sold(2341)
this is for 85042, a south phoenix zip which was hit spectacularly hard during the crash, due to so many homes built and sold in 2004-2006... ( I own 3 in this area, and 1 more under contract)

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  1. robertoaribas


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    1   2:14pm Fri 26 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    I'm not sure about this "recently sold" number, I count just over 500 so far this year sold in that zip... 58 in the last 30 days.

    If we had this data a year ago, it would mean a lot more to me, but at least now I can find it here in a month and see what direction everything is heading.

  2. FortWayne


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    2   2:18pm Fri 26 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  
  3. robertoaribas


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    3   2:31pm Fri 26 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    i see that even these simple instructions were too complex for poor darrel to follow... so sad!

  4. edvard2


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    4   2:41pm Fri 26 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    Down we go to look at a chart showing rising rents. Yay!

  5. David9


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    Tarzana, CA

    5   3:30pm Fri 26 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Wow, Tarzana, 91356, a relatively upscale neighborhood, especially South of Ventura Boulevard:

    142 ---> For Sale
    29 ---> Foreclosed
    180 ---> Pre Foreclosure

  6. David9


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    6   3:49pm Fri 26 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Crap, Even the Dallas Real Estate Market Still Sucks, 75235:

    For Sale ---> 34
    Foreclosed ---> 15
    Pre-Foreclosure ---> 16
    For Rent ---> 173
    Sold ---> 1

    Thanks Roberto! lol

  7. robertoaribas


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    7   4:12pm Fri 26 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    david... that sold number of "1" is a wow all right... Even though 85042 has nearly 250 distressed, at 60 sales a month, that is only 4 months inventory, and in line with my predictions that at current rates, 9 months to a year from now it will be nearly finished. I'll recheck those zips in a month or two...

    I searched Florida, and couldn't find any really terrible zips (at least not on the beach, where I want to live!) anybody from Florida want to do the digging?

  8. David9


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    Tarzana, CA

    8   4:22pm Fri 26 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    roberto, yeah, before I posted Tarzana and Dallas I checked 'West' West Palm Beach, 33414, expecting not good numbers and they were not bad, relatively of course, for sale -> 814, foreclosed -> 88, pre-foreclosure -> 363, for rent -> 462, and sold -> 3433.

    Texans are not Californians.

    Seriously, nice tool / guage. Thanks.

  9. pkennedy


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    Redwood City, CA

    9   8:05pm Fri 26 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    So rents from $1140 to $900? Based on the way that graph moves, it looks like there aren't very many data points in there. It doesn't include what neighbourhoods are involved or anything else.

    $900 rent supports a house cost of around $160,000 in terms of PITI for a break even point. From what I've seen robertos buying homes at, it seems like they're huge cash cows.

  10. robertoaribas


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    10   8:59pm Fri 26 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    you can tell from the jumpiness of the graph, that he restricted it down to some small set with few data points... and thinks he is fooling anybody!

  11. Joe at Sunnyvale


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    11   9:26pm Fri 26 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Darrell In Phoenix says

    Cratering rental rates.... and falling.

    I live in Bay area. As far as I can tell, rents are going up, about 15% higher than a year ago in the apartment I rented.

  12. John Bailo


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    12   10:41pm Fri 26 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    My zip isn't as bad, but when I looked at the shadow inventory it was like, oh, here are all the "real houses" that I would want to buy...the rest are either really trashed up HUD homes on the low end and then a big jump to overpriced new construction and then estates...

  13. Repubthug


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    13   4:22am Sat 27 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    In my zip code : 33324

    in broward county(Fort Lauderdale area) a decent city

    here are the numbers

    for sale : 445

    Pre-Market :
    Pre-Forclosure : 226
    Forclosed : 75

    For rent : 572

    Recently sold : 2775

    Boy,looks like lots of units are already sold recently

    Did I miss the buss?been on the sidelines for too long?

    also if you like foreclosed or preforclosed place,whats the approach to follow to buy one

  14. Quigley


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    Huntington Beach, CA

    14   1:40pm Sun 28 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    In my town (Huntington beach) there was 120 houses for sale, and 132 per foreclosures, best I could count.

    My question is this: has anyone figured out how to turn info on a preforclosure into an opportunity?

  15. E-man


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    15   4:55pm Sun 28 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    How can I find it when there is no NOD filing?

  16. The Professor


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    16   8:21pm Sun 28 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    Oakland CA

    770 for sale (including 60 foreclosed for sale)
    538 foreclosed (not for sale... Yet)
    1686 preforeclosure.

  17. The Professor


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    17   8:26pm Sun 28 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    Antioch CA

    176 for sale (including 18 foreclosed for sale)
    111 foreclosed (not for sale... Yet)
    747 preforeclosure.

    4.9 in trouble to every 1 for sale

  18. The Professor


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    18   8:29pm Sun 28 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    Tracy CA

    215 for sale (including 12 foreclosed for sale)
    93 foreclosed (not for sale... Yet)
    717 preforeclosure.

    3.8 in trouble to every 1 for sale

  19. The Professor


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    19   8:31pm Sun 28 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    Sacramento CA

    798 for sale (including 71 foreclosed for sale)
    580 foreclosed (not for sale... Yet)
    2465 preforeclosure.

    3.8 in trouble to every 1 for sale

  20. The Professor


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    20   8:37pm Sun 28 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected  

    Vallejo CA

    199 for sale (including 47 foreclosed for sale)
    197 foreclosed (not for sale... Yet)
    1025 preforeclosure.

    6.1 in trouble to every 1 for sale

  21. The Professor


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    21   8:41pm Sun 28 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected  

    Concord CA

    181 for sale (including 26 foreclosed for sale)
    87 foreclosed (not for sale... Yet)
    594 preforeclosure.

    3.7 in trouble to every 1 for sale

  22. The Professor


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    22   8:49pm Sun 28 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected  

    Pittsburg CA

    106 for sale (including 16 foreclosed for sale)
    249 foreclosed (not for sale... Yet)
    538 preforeclosure.

    7.4 in trouble to every 1 for sale

    I think I have found a winner!

    For every home that is for sale in Pittsburg California there are seven already in trouble

  23. Goran_K


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    23   11:02pm Sun 28 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    Concord, Pittsburg, and Vallejo have some amazing numbers.

  24. BayArea


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    24   4:32pm Mon 29 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    The Professor says

    I think I have found a winner!

    I could have told you it was going to be Pittsburg, Antioch, Vallejo, Oakland before any number crunching

  25. bubblesitter


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    25   11:33am Thu 1 Nov 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    BayArea says

    The Professor says

    I think I have found a winner!

    I could have told you it was going to be Pittsburg, Antioch, Vallejo, Oakland before any number crunching

    I guess they all moved to much coveted parts of BA and hence Norcal is booming!

  26. The Professor


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    26   11:27am Tue 1 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    The Professor says

    Oakland CA

    770 for sale (including 60 foreclosed for sale)

    538 foreclosed (not for sale... Yet)

    1686 preforeclosure.

    Update

    Oakland CA

    441 for sale (including 60 foreclosed for sale)

    380 foreclosed (not for sale... Yet)

    1475 preforeclosure.

    Inventory going down

  27. The Professor


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    27   11:32am Tue 1 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    The Professor says

    Antioch CA

    176 for sale (including 18 foreclosed for sale)

    111 foreclosed (not for sale... Yet)

    747 preforeclosure.

    4.9 in trouble to every 1 for sale

    Update

    Antioch CA

    137 for sale (including 18 foreclosed for sale)

    106 foreclosed (not for sale... Yet)

    671 preforeclosure.

    5.6 in trouble to every 1 for sale

    Inventory down trouble ratio up

  28. The Professor


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    28   11:38am Tue 1 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    The Professor says

    Tracy CA

    215 for sale (including 12 foreclosed for sale)

    93 foreclosed (not for sale... Yet)

    717 preforeclosure.

    3.8 in trouble to every 1 for sale

    Update

    Tracy CA

    154 for sale (including 11 foreclosed for sale)

    97 foreclosed (not for sale... Yet)

    620 preforeclosure.

    4.6 in trouble to every 1 for sale

    Inventory down trouble ratio up.

  29. The Professor


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    29   11:42am Tue 1 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    The Professor says

    Sacramento CA

    798 for sale (including 71 foreclosed for sale)

    580 foreclosed (not for sale... Yet)

    2465 preforeclosure.

    3.8 in trouble to every 1 for sale

    Update

    Sacramento CA

    699 for sale (including 61 foreclosed for sale)

    520 foreclosed (not for sale... Yet)

    2063 preforeclosure.

    3.7 in trouble to every 1 for sale

    Inventory down troubled ratio down 0.1

  30. The Professor


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    30   11:45am Tue 1 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    The Professor says

    Vallejo CA

    199 for sale (including 47 foreclosed for sale)

    197 foreclosed (not for sale... Yet)

    1025 preforeclosure.

    6.1 in trouble to every 1 for sale

    Update

    Vallejo CA

    156 for sale (including 27 foreclosed for sale)

    178 foreclosed (not for sale... Yet)

    897 preforeclosure.

    6.9 in trouble to every 1 for sale

    Inventory down Trouble ratio up, slightly.

  31. The Professor


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    31   11:49am Tue 1 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    The Professor says

    Concord CA

    181 for sale (including 26 foreclosed for sale)

    87 foreclosed (not for sale... Yet)

    594 preforeclosure.

    3.7 in trouble to every 1 for sale

    Update
    Concord CA

    112 for sale (including 19 foreclosed for sale)
    81 foreclosed (not for sale... Yet)
    525 preforeclosure.

    5.4 in trouble to every 1 for sale
    Inventory down Trouble ratio up, significantly

  32. The Professor


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    32   11:52am Tue 1 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    The Professor says

    Pittsburg CA

    106 for sale (including 16 foreclosed for sale)

    249 foreclosed (not for sale... Yet)

    538 preforeclosure.

    7.4 in trouble to every 1 for sale

    I think I have found a winner!

    For every home that is for sale in Pittsburg California there are seven already in trouble

    Pittsburg CA

    75 for sale (including 10 foreclosed for sale)
    253 foreclosed (not for sale... Yet)
    445 preforeclosure.

    9.3 in trouble to every 1 for sale

    Inventory down Trouble ratio up.

  33. The Professor


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    33   11:54am Tue 1 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    Inventory is down. Selling price is up.

    REAL ESTATE HAS RECOVERED!!!

    What a difference an election, and a couple months can make.

  34. bmwman91


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    34   12:03pm Tue 1 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    Can anyone find out how many of those pre-FC properties are owned by Fannie and Freddie? That bit of information will become pertinent in February.

  35. robertoaribas


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    35   8:05pm Tue 1 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    bmwman91 says

    Can anyone find out how many of those pre-FC properties are owned by Fannie and Freddie?

    yes. the number is zero. If it is in pre-foreclosure, it is owned by the current owner.

  36. The Professor


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    36   7:14pm Fri 29 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected  

    End of 1st quarter update:

    The for sale inventory of most troubled areas is down. The banks have also been working down the troubled inventory. The pre-foreclosure count is down by as much as a third in some of the troubled areas. There is still anectodal evidence of the banks (e.g. empty houses not on any mls, delinquent owners falling off the preforeclosure list) are withholding inventory.

    In many fringe areas the for rent exceeds the number of for sale by a factor of 3 or 4 to 1. Perhaps these are owned by the investors who bought houses and are now trying to rent them out? There does seem to be downward pressure on rental prices.

    Buy or rent, the median income can only support so much housing expense.

    Perhaps we are reaching an equilibrium? The early years of this century were fueled by an easy credit mania. The recent surge is fueled by deep pocket investors and leveraged landlords. Maybe the investors will back away from their underperforming investments, the banks will liquidate their bad loans, and housing will be more affordable to the common people.

    Prosperity and justice will be restored and the people will live happily ever after.

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