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Honest info, Phoenix market...

By robertoaribas   Follow   Tue, 23 Oct 2012, 8:19pm   10,159 views   228 comments
In Scottsdale AZ 85250   Watch (1)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (3)  

1. Foreclosures continue to fall:
http://www.foreclosureradar.com/arizona/maricopa-county-foreclosures

Notice the graph for homes in the foreclosure process? Down from nearly 25,000 a year ago to 17,000 now. In fact, this number has been decreasing by 1500 a month for the past several months, and this month is following form, based on my preliminary count through today on the county website. At that pace, we are 12 months away from hitting zero foreclosures... [that won't really happen, but it gives an idea of how close to finished we are with foreclosures here.

Notice the new filings? down from the 4000 range a year ago, to 2500 now.

2. Inventory is down 20% year over year, and listing prices are rising. think about this for a second: last year, we saw prices jump nearly 30% in Phoenix, and yet inventory is still down? Low supply leads to upward pressure on equilibrium price.

3. Listed prices are rising.
http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/arizona/phoenix/

4. case-shiller index is rising.
http://ycharts.com/indicators/case_shiller_home_price_index_phoenix

Case-shiller estimates 16% up in the past year. However, as this is being caused nearly entirely by the lower to mid tiers of the market, those tiers are actually up much more than the general index...

This is the real data for Phoenix/maricopa.
read more truth about this market at my blog site.

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1. yup1 Follow Befriend 10 threads 379 comments

   189   11:51am Wed 13 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Bigsby says And yes, I know nothing about your investment decisions. Were they better than his? I have no idea I do not know what decisions he made outside of real estate.

2. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

   190   11:53am Wed 13 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   yup1 says Bigsby says And yes, I know nothing about your investment decisions. Were they better than his? I have no idea I do not know what decisions he made outside of real estate. They are the investments he has outlined. Were your decisions better than his? I think I can guess the answer based on your posts.

3. yup1 Follow Befriend 10 threads 379 comments

   191   12:00pm Wed 13 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Bigsby says They are the investments he has outlined. Were your decisions better than his? I think I can guess the answer based on your posts. As far as real estate, no. I did time the stock market fairly well though.

4. yup1 Follow Befriend 10 threads 379 comments

   192   12:05pm Wed 13 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Bigsby says And he says he gets $6000 a month at the minute. He isn't claiming some kind of amazingly lavish income, but that and his pension would do very nicely for most people Do you ever get to actually retire with 15 passive income properties?

5. CDon Follow Befriend (1) 220 comments

   193   12:07pm Wed 13 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   yup1 says If incomes collapse? If rents collapse? Ever heard of the great depression? Ever heard of a global financial panic? Ever heard of a currency collapse? Water shortage? Dust bowl? Serious question - for those who arent as much investors, but just want to someday, buy a house and get on with it, what is your answer to hedge against these risks - rent forever? I ask because I know of at least one person who has been renting continuously since 1987, all the while citing background life risks like these, as reasons not to buy...yet. For that sort of person, are you seriously advocating that they continue to rent until all these risks disappear before they wade into the buyers market?

6. yup1 Follow Befriend 10 threads 379 comments

   194   12:22pm Wed 13 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   CDon says For that sort of person, are you seriously advocating that they continue to rent until all these risks disappear before they wade into the buyers market? Some risks never disappear, but they might become small enough that you dive in. If the person you know has not owned in 25+ years they will most likely never own. Depending on where they live that might be a good decision, it might not have. In my time as a homeowner, owning has cost me more than renting would have. That is from 1993 to present. My price gains do not offset the increased cost of ownership.

7. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,801 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

   195   1:17pm Wed 13 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   CDon says Serious question - for those who arent as much investors, but just want to someday, buy a house and get on with it, what is your answer to hedge against these risks - rent forever? I ask because I know of at least one person who has been renting continuously since 1987, all the while citing background life risks like these, as reasons not to buy...yet. For that sort of person, are you seriously advocating that they continue to rent until all these risks disappear before they wade into the buyers market? You face a risk either way: Renters risks: 1. rent could (and usually has gone up over time) 2. forced to move when you don't want to. owners risk: 1. rents could fall, and you miss an opportunity. 2. more maintenance than you anticipated. 3. job or life change, much less flexible 4. money tied up for years There is no risk free answer; the question rather, is what are the odds each way? If rent is very high compared to rent, such as twice the PITI on a 30 year fixed 20 down loan, honestly, you could rent it and make money if you need to leave anyways. If I move to columbia or peru someday, I'd probably rent there...

8. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

   196   7:10pm Wed 13 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   yup1 says Bigsby says And he says he gets $6000 a month at the minute. He isn't claiming some kind of amazingly lavish income, but that and his pension would do very nicely for most people Do you ever get to actually retire with 15 passive income properties? You have to laugh.

9. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,801 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

   197   7:39pm Wed 13 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Bigsby says yup1 says Bigsby says And he says he gets $6000 a month at the minute. He isn't claiming some kind of amazingly lavish income, but that and his pension would do very nicely for most people Do you ever get to actually retire with 15 passive income properties? You have to laugh. I am only managing 6 of them now, the other 8 I have a property manager for. I'll turn over the rest in due course.

10. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,801 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    198   11:50am Mon 18 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   ok, another monday, another report on the Phoenix housing market: 1. inventory dropped by a couple hundred. This is very important, because in a typical year, inventory is at a low over the holiday season, and then rises briskly into the spring. To see inventory drop today, is ultra positive for home prices this spring and summer 2. Asking prices continued their torrid increase. The 75th percentile is up $30,000 in a single month, the 25th is up $6000. The median is up 4.4% on a monthly basis, and holding to this speedy price increase. 3. Foreclosures notices: last month was the first time in six years that we had less than 2000 NTR filings in maricopa county, and we are on pace to have less than 2000 again. Actual foreclosures, which have already slowed dramatically, are going to slow even further. New inventory is simply not going to come from that source. No Tsunami, those calling for it have been 100% wrong. Anyone who delayed buying a year ago due to bad perma-pessimistic advice has made a huge mistake. My prediction a month ago of 10 to 15% increase in prices by summer is looking more and more certain as each week goes by. http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/arizona/phoenix/

11. gbenson Follow Befriend 16 threads 387 comments

    199   3:09pm Mon 18 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Bah! My realtor told me that a ton of inventory is on its way! Granted that was a year ago now... :'P

12. FunTime Follow Befriend (3) 38 threads 801 comments San Francisco, CA

    200   11:16am Thu 21 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   robertoaribas says Anyone who delayed buying a year ago due to bad perma-pessimistic advice has made a huge mistake. If they wanted to sell after a year?

13. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,801 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    201   11:29am Thu 21 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   FunTime says robertoaribas says Anyone who delayed buying a year ago due to bad perma-pessimistic advice has made a huge mistake. If they wanted to sell after a year? Well, if paying rent higher than your mortgage for a year, while you wait and watch prices go up 25% or more seems like a good business move to you.... by all means!!!

14. Oil Can Follow Befriend 21 threads 128 comments Oil Can's website

    202   12:22pm Thu 21 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Last year, institutional investors made up 19% of all sales in Las Vegas, 21% in Charlotte, 23% in Phoenix, and 30% in Miami. It had an impact. In the latest Case-Shiller report—a three-month moving average for October, November, and December—home values soared 9.9% in Atlanta, a bigger jump than even during the peak of the housing bubble. Las Vegas popped 12.9%, and Phoenix 23%. It’s getting hotter. In February, compared to prior year, asking prices jumped 14% in Atlanta, 18% in Las Vegas, and 25% Phoenix. Seen from another point of view: in January, the median price of a single-family home in Phoenix skyrocketed 35%. “We recognized that prices were moving faster than people expected,” explained Devin Peterson, a Blackstone real estate associate, to Bloomberg. Despite that, they’re still “finding opportunities to buy.” They might not be able to rent them out very quickly, but they’d rather not be “missing out on a few points in home price appreciation.” The race to buy is on. The next housing bubble is inflating. And that’s great. Money—which the Fed hands to its cronies at the frenetic pace of $85 billion a month—magically finds places to go and drives up values, and transactions take place, and paper gets shuffled around, and homes change hands as banks get out from under them, and fees and commissions change hands too. It inflates GDP, which is what everyone wants. And Chairman Bernanke can contort his arm slapping himself on the back. Trying to rent these places is another story. Housing is zero-sum: when you move into a new place, you move out of the old place at the same time. So it becomes available. And someone else goes through the same process. Only household formation solves the problem of vacant homes—but that takes years or decades. Best of all, these formerly foreclosed homes have now been pulled off the for-sale inventory list. Hence the “tight” inventory. And they’ve been transferred to the for-rent inventory list where they don’t bother anyone. Except the owners. Colony Capital, for example, with its 7,000 homes, has an occupancy rate of 53%. Suddenly, the market for single-family rental homes—unlike apartments, which cater to different people—has turned into an elbow-to-elbow affair. The pressure on rents is huge. Year-over-year, rents edged up only 0.5% in Atlanta and dropped 1.7% in Las Vegas. For Phoenix, Bloomberg cited Fletcher Wilcox, a real estate analyst at Grand Canyon Title Agency: median rent per square foot rose 3% year-over-year in February 2011, and 1.5% in February 2012. But in February 2013, it fell 3%. This tendency was confirmed by others. On the west side of Phoenix, where investors have concentrated their purchases of single-family homes, rents dropped by $100 a month last year—a stunning 10%!—according to James Breitenstein, CEO of Landsmith which has dumped most of its Phoenix properties. He is seeing similar pressures in Las Vegas and Atlanta. “There’s a whole bunch of rental supply that’s coming on that used to be sitting empty in bank portfolios,” he said.

15. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,801 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    203   2:27pm Mon 25 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Oil Can says Trying to rent these places is another story. Housing is zero-sum: when you move into a new place, you move out of the old place at the same time. So it becomes available. And someone else goes through the same process. Only household formation solves the problem of vacant homes—but that takes years or decades. @oilcan... blah blah blah... my rental on the westside gave notice to move out... it is in absolute crap shape, but I got it re-rented at the same price, 2 weeks prior to my current tenant leaving... someday I'll remodel it, but for now, I'll just keep making rent. $60K purchase, rented for $825... 4bedroom 2 car garage, on a golf course... worth an easy $100K today a mere 9 months after I bought it... taxes are $800 a year, insurance $700.... I bought a new ac shortly after getting it, and a couple other small repairs plus appliances, the new tenants wanted a minimum 2 year lease... In other Phoenix news, median price continued it's march up... STUNNING increase in the 75th percentile, up another $10K in just a week... EVERYBODY who said "don't buy, the crash isn't over" 2 years ago, at least for Phoenix, couldn't possibly have been more wrong on anything ever.... you know who you are!!! http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/arizona/phoenix/

16. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,801 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    204   8:06am Tue 26 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Phoenix inventory just dropped under 17,600 this morning. with roughly 8000 sold in the past 30 days. this is a new low for this spring, and continuing a trend of 100 less homes for sale per week. Considering that in a normal year (been a while since we've had normal around here) inventory typically rises from January to April by 10 or 15%, This continued drop in inventory signals that the market is going to stay tight, with prices increasing. And, more inventory is definitely not coming from foreclosures any time soon: there are precisely 2381 scheduled foreclosures in the next 30 days. Even as recently as a year ago, we routinely had 5000 foreclosures scheduled in the up coming 30 day period. Using historical data, 1/3 of these will actually foreclose, 1/3 cancel and 1/3 delayed into the future. So we will be seeing 50% less foreclosures then last year at this time, a reduction of about 800 distressed properties per month, and given the greatly reduced pipeline of homes in foreclosure, and notices of future foreclosure, this trend is not changing this year. So, we have tight inventory, and much less distressed inventory coming than last year. Until prices rise enough that regular home owners are enticed to sell, or buyers quit buying, prices are going to continue to rise. The sign of that change will be rising inventory, and slowing sales, such as 4 to 6 months worth of inventory on the market, a figure we are a hell of along ways away from today.

17. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,801 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    205   7:50pm Tue 26 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   robertoaribas says Phoenix inventory just dropped under 17,600 this morning. Oh snap! Phoenix inventory dropped another 100 today! (I miss typed it earlier, it was 16,600 this morning... now it is 16,495... Now, I realize that this particular statistic jumps around, but still this definitely bears watching...

18. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,801 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    206   10:56am Mon 1 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/arizona/phoenix/ Phoenix listed prices continued their torrid increase, inventory continues to drop. Inventory tends to jump up right before the weekend, then jump down the first couple days of the week, which makes sense, as buyers go out looking at homes on the weekend, iron out contracts, and the houses get removed the next week. Nevertheless, we nearly went under 16,400 last week, then jumped back up to 16,650 on Friday, as of this second, it is 16408. [housingtracker.net above uses a slightly different data set, but you can see the same trend] Meanwhile, March had preliminary sales numbers of 8200, a very strong number when combined with the low inventory. Analyzing foreclosure filings, I got a count of 1830 Notice of trustee sales, 850 actual foreclosures, and 1330 cancelled foreclosures. Foreclosures have truly dropped off a cliff, and it is important to note that AZ has no new legal impediments to foreclosures; they are just dropping on their own. Compare those numbers to past data: Foreclosure Filings: Arizona > Maricopa County Foreclosure Outcomes: Arizona > Maricopa County

19. David9 Follow Befriend (3) 28 threads 747 comments Tarzana, CA

    207   11:05am Mon 1 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   robertoaribas says torrid increase Torrid increase ? You don't know torrid. How about a cool one hundred grand ? (Sure, nice if he/she can get it.) http://www.redfin.com/CA/Los-Angeles/1745-Camino-Palmero-St-90046/unit-209/home/7115207

20. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,801 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    208   9:57am Tue 2 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Phoenix active inventory dropped to 16,300 this morning, down 100 from last week's low. (tends to jump up friday, as people who are thinking of listing get it ont he market for the weekend, then drop off monday and tuesday, as all the people who looked at homes over the weekend negotiate contracts) Still trending downward in spring, when it would normally be trending upwards.

21. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,801 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    209   11:23am Mon 8 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Phoenix active inventory dropped under 16,200. Another week, down another 100. So, anyone waiting for a sign of any change in our climbing market prices is likely to be sadly disappointed for quite some time to come.

22. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,801 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    210   2:59pm Mon 8 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   housingtracker.net just released there inventory and pricing data for the week. Phoenix is holding on to its torrid 4%+ monthly median listing price increases... http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/arizona/phoenix/ in fact the 25th percentile price today is where the median was in July 2011...

23. David9 Follow Befriend (3) 28 threads 747 comments Tarzana, CA

    211   3:09pm Mon 8 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   robertoaribas says torrid 4%+ monthly median listing price increases... 4% aint jack sh*t, try roughly 50% in two months or 25% a month increase. http://www.redfin.com/CA/Los-Angeles/5211-Romaine-St-90029/home/7109539

24. CashWillCrash Follow Befriend 3 threads 164 comments

    212   3:12pm Mon 8 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/arizona/phoenix/ Wow, 77.5% increase in just over 2 years!!! That's incredible! Only possible with a whole lot of cash buyers or else the stupid appraisers would have blocked out that kind of price increase. I am just glad that the Gas and Food Markets don't have such a supply/demand imbalance!

25. CashWillCrash Follow Befriend 3 threads 164 comments

    213   3:17pm Mon 8 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   David9 says robertoaribas says torrid 4%+ monthly median listing price increases... 4% aint jack sh*t, try roughly 50% in two months or 25% a month increase. http://www.redfin.com/CA/Los-Angeles/5211-Romaine-St-90029/home/7109539 Nice listing. Why wait a whole year for 25% when you can get it in just a month. Is it a mobile home, looks like one?

26. David9 Follow Befriend (3) 28 threads 747 comments Tarzana, CA

    214   3:18pm Mon 8 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   CashWillCrash says Wow, 77.5% increase in just over 2 years!!! With all due respect, I think that is in 2 months, not years. Bought February 8, 2013 for 198k Listed April 4, 2013 for 319k Appraisers ? Don't you remember my story about the howls of laughter I got on the phone years ago when I told the bank 'I have an appraisal' ;-) Thankfully, I have come a long way since then.

27. David9 Follow Befriend (3) 28 threads 747 comments Tarzana, CA

    215   3:19pm Mon 8 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   CashWillCrash says it a mobile home, looks like one? Close ..

28. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,801 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    216   3:21pm Mon 8 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   one flip, that may have been bought way under market, or had serious repairs hardly shows how a market is doing. But, the median price out of 15,000 listed homes sure the heck does!

29. CashWillCrash Follow Befriend 3 threads 164 comments

    217   3:25pm Mon 8 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   David9 says CashWillCrash says Wow, 77.5% increase in just over 2 years!!! With all due respect, I think that is in 2 months, not years. Bought February 8, 2013 for 198k DAVID9, 77.5% was the appreciation for Phoenix according to Roberto's Article which applied to ALL SALES in Phoenix and not only one lucky flipper! Listed April 4, 2013 for 319k Appraisers ? Don't you remember my story about the howls of laughter I got on the phone years ago when I told the bank 'I have an appraisal' ;-) Thankfully, I have come a long way since then. David9, the 77.5% appreciation is for Roberto's article which is the average of 15,000 SALES in Phoenix, not just one lucky Flipper! Besides that, it;s only his ASKING price. Any bid yet?

30. David9 Follow Befriend (3) 28 threads 747 comments Tarzana, CA

    218   3:34pm Mon 8 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   CashWillCrash says Any bid yet? k. (For Phoenix Correction) That one property is: 1 of 4 350k and under 1 of 5 400k and under 1 of 8 450k and under I'll keep an eye on my Redfin emails for sold. It just might.

31. adarmiento Follow Befriend 9 threads 254 comments

    219   4:09pm Mon 8 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Roberto Aribas, this is all that matters http://www.zillow.com/local-info/AZ-home-value/r_8/#metric=mt%3D34%26dt%3D1%26tp%3D5%26rt%3D14%26r%3D8%252C394976%26el%3D0

32. postbubblesucess Follow Befriend 40 comments

    220   4:49pm Mon 8 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Numbers don't lie. Feels good to know my townhouse went up almost 100% from 43.5k to 80k. Neighbor just had an all out cash bidding war on his property. Listing agent told me in front of 2 couples that my neighbor was considering raising the price. I saw him on my way to my garage and he said he needed the money to travel with his new wife or he would hold out for more money. He's 65 and has another house. As for me, I don't think it's unreasonable to say that I think Ill see the 100k mark by August. Yay me and a middle finger to all the jealous haters :)

33. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,801 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    221   6:52pm Mon 8 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   oh snap! Phoenix active inventory just dropped under 16,100... When it just went under 16200 for the first time since last summer this morning... with 8500 sold in the past 30 days, the entire mls has less than 2 months inventory now.

34. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,801 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    222   5:33pm Tue 9 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   15999 active on the mls... another day, another 100 down...

35. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,801 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    223   6:51pm Mon 22 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/arizona/phoenix/ Well, Phoenix housing listed prices have been completely stable for two weeks. I count active inventory at 15931 today... so basically stable as well. I have to admit, I am a bit surprised by this. Sales have come flying back, in my rolling 30 day count, I am now seeing 9000 give or take on the mix of business days/weekends in the count, whereas a january was around 6000. So, the entire mls has less than 2 months inventory, and in many price points, like single family homes within 25 miles of downtown, 3/2/2car garage, 150k to 200K, there is literally like 2.5 weeks inventory. Meanwhile, foreclosure have plummeted, new filings are down 60% from last year. Even short sales are less numerous this year than last year. Considering how fast prices had been rising, a couple of weeks of stable prices could just be statistical noise in the continuing uptrend. I wouldn't expect price increases to stop with supply and demand still this out of whack. So, I investigated further into what homes are being listed these days. Analysis of the last 7 days listings: short sales = 103 REO/HUD = 183 No special listing condition = 1618 So, I decided to look at the new non-distressed listings. I picked 10 random homes, not distressed: 1 flip 3 long flips (over one year between distressed sale and current listing, possibly investor, possibly owner occupied, I can't necessarily tell which) 6 normal sales. then, I decided to take a closer look at 150k to 250K, the starter home market in Phoenix. I pulled 20 random non distressed homes: 1. short sale preforeclosure, owner/agent lying and not disclosing this fact in the appropriate part of the listing (hence it came up in my search) 2 new homes. 5 long flips 12 normal sales. Obviously, 10 and 20 are too small of data sets to use as a survey, the error bound on statistics would be too high for any reliability, but it is a bit of a time consuming process, and I'm just trying to get a bit of preliminary data. A couple of conclusions: 1. clearly, Phoenix prices have risen enough, that apparently a lot of people can now sell, who may have wished to sell for a while. 2. Even some people, investors or regular owners, who got smoking deals out of the crash in 2009, 2010, are going to sell now. So, my conclusions from what I'm seeing, are that prices are likely to keep rising in the near to mid term, as supply and demand are still out of whack. But the market could be starting to enter a new phase. I'm not expecting the rapid price increases of the past year to continue, if i had to make a guess, i'd say about 10% more up generally through this selling season, with a possibility of more normal listings blunting the increases by late summer. Obviously, with the volatility the Phoenix market has seen over the past 3 years, this an area by area phenomenon, and not all are going to act the same.

36. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,801 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    224   2:13pm Mon 29 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   housingtracker asking prices resumed their increases, after 2 weeks of stable prices. http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/arizona/phoenix/ Median and first quartile showing stronger increases. Inventory is slightly down.

37. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,801 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    225   8:49am Tue 30 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   case shiller just releases, showing a 1.01% increase January to February on both the seasonally adjusted, and unadjusted index. And, the increase over a year ago is 23%. Since this is data from several months prior, get prepared to watch more of the same for the next nine months for damn sure, given the reality of this market.

38. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,801 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    226   7:35am Tue 7 May 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Phoenix median asking price jumped $3000 in just a week, and the 25th percentile jumped $1900... Looks like the spring/summer price increases are going to keep on coming... http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/arizona/phoenix/

39. Mobi Follow Befriend 1 threads 241 comments

    227   7:50am Tue 7 May 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   yup1 says Bigsby says And he says he gets $6000 a month at the minute. He isn't claiming some kind of amazingly lavish income, but that and his pension would do very nicely for most people Do you ever get to actually retire with 15 passive income properties? I would think so with a good property manager. One of the advantages compared to stocks - stability. Not saying housing is a better investment than stocks, just talking about the stability.

40. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,801 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    228   3:40pm Tue 14 May 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Phoenix home prices did not rise at all this week on housingtracker.net The price increases have definitely slowed down, now. Not really too surprising, after 80%+ increases since the bottom. Inventory has remained exactly the same, and there are fewer distressed homes than a month ago.

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