From RCP 10/18
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

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Honest Abe says
Because he has been a disappointment.
You know who would be even more disappointing?
...Romney.
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http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2012_new_hampshire_president
Election 2012: New Hampshire President
New Hampshire: Romney 50%, Obama 48%
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
The presidential race in New Hampshire remains neck-and-neck, with Mitt Romney stretching to a two-point lead.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely New Hampshire Voters, taken the night after the final presidential debate, finds Romney earning 50% support, while President Obama has 48% of the vote
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CaptainShuddup says
I'm sorry, but anyone who actually listens to what the man has to say and has seen what he has done could very easily see that he not only makes rational decisions, but does so wisely and effectively. This is the reason he will win this election.
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http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/07/mitts-travelogue-meeting-lech-walesa-and-greetings-from-polich-ron-paul-supporters/
Lech Walesa Endorses Mitt Romney
Of course, Chavez, Castro, and Putin have endorsed Obama.
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In Ohio, Biden Talks About All the Ads Being Run 'Here in Iowa'
http://nation.foxnews.com/joe-biden/2012/10/24/ohio-biden-talks-about-all-ads-being-run-here-iowa
This reminds me of the time Former MD Lt Governor Kathleen Kennedy Townsend when running for governor said at the opening of another shopping mall I have 4 daughters, and they need someplace to shop! The fact that there were MANY empty shopping centers within a few miles didn't seem to matter to her. Fortunately, she did not get elected.
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Oh yeah..... the Colin Powell endorsement. Sorry to say I don't even know who Lech is....
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edvard2 says
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lech_Wa%C5%82%C4%99sa
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Yup says
I heard it on the news this morning, but a black person endorsing Obama is not newsworthy.
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zzyzzx says
Yes...and this is precisely why I say so many of the posters here fit into the category of young, inexperienced when it comes to life and sometimes angry at the world. If you were at least high school age in the early to mid eighties, you knew who Lech Walesa was and what the Solidarity movement in Poland was about.
This is why I said all that stuff about iwog being a kid. He posts like an angry kid and reacts to certain questions like an angry kid...and more than likely is one. There are certain rules when it comes to all this stuff. He hasn't been around long enough to understand that.
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rootvg says
Like almost everything else you post, this assessment of who I am is grossly inaccurate. Your perception is horrible.
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zzyzzx says
That's one of the most misguided and misinformed things you've ever posted. By your "logic," then, any white person endorsing Romnesia would also not be newsworthy. Did you check which way the only black Justice on SCOTUS voted on ObamneyCare? He voted to declare it unconstitutional and throw it out. If all you see is a color, then you don't see people's ideas or character at all.
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iwog says
When this all began with the election, I told you there are certain elements to look at that don't show up in a poll or can't otherwise be quantified. I told you what I saw and you said I was nuts. Guess what? Here we are two weeks from the election with Michigan and Pennsylvania in play when they are normally not in question.
Something big is about to happen. There's no stopping it.
The left's circular firing squads are already convening. This happened after Reagan won in 1980 and his party took twelve Senate seats all at once. It happened again when Republicans took the House in 1994 and held it for over a decade.
I don't normally listen to Michael Savage because he's over the top even for me (Dennis Prager and Hugh Hewitt are far closer to my style) but I heard something last night about Obama having a surrogate buy a house for him on Oahu earlier this year and then something about no sitting President having won a second term with this level of unemployment since 1936. I looked at my wife, pointed a finger and said, I told you so.
I also told you about the friend of ours who's on Romney's advance team for California, saying Obama's people have been told to go quietly or risk their careers and possibly their freedom in hearings next year that lead to impeachment. They're scared and they should be. If something weird happens and Obama should win, Issa's people will personally feed each and every one of them into the meat grinder. But, it won't happen. It CAN'T.
Within the last six weeks, all of this stuff has been coming back to me from various people we know.
Conventional wisdom gets that way because it has a basis in fact.
This is how things really work. We don't let people like you run things that are important...or at least we don't let you do it for very long.
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rootvg says
Yes and I said you were ridiculous for thinking that this insight was more accurate than polling numbers.
rootvg says
Neither one of those states is in play. You're just delusional.
rootvg says
So if Obama wins, is your wife going to think you were ridiculous too?
rootvg says
Saved for after the election. As I've said numerous times, you aren't allowing yourself to be wrong. If Obama wins, your entire life is a joke because YOU said your entire life tells you Obama will lose.
You have no outs.
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Obama is going to win. The repubs at least used to have the tough guy thing going for them. Mittens is a flip-flopping wimp . Nobody likes him.
At least with Obama you know what you are getting. With Mittens, even he doesn't know which Mittens is going to show up that day.
I really wish we had better alternatives than these two .
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lostand confused says
oh yes.. this weeks Obama Message is "who do you trust more"....
but its the same message from Obama back in 2008...
" If you don't have a record to run on, then you paint your opponent as someone people should run from. You make a big election about small things. "
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rootvg says
And Wisconsin is about to go Romney as well:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/wisconsin/election_2012_wisconsin_president
Election 2012: Wisconsin President
Wisconsin: Obama 49%, Romney 49%
Friday, October 26, 2012
President Obama and Mitt Romney are now tied in the critical battleground state of Wisconsin.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Wisconsin Voters shows the president and his Republican challenger each earning 49% support.
Although the polls on Wisconsin have flop flopped more times than Jonh Kerry so I would leave in as undecided in my electoral count until the election. At least with New Hampshire I think it's going to Go Romney and stay that way between now and the election.
If you want to use early election results, look at that one district in Maine (2nd Congressional) to see how that works out. If it goes for Romney then it might be all over then. Plus results for Maine as a whole should come in early. I'm not saying that I think a single electoral vote is going to determine the next president, but if Obama can't win this district, he's going to lose elsewhere as well:
District 2 450,683
Registered Democrats:137,056
Registered Republicans: 132,256
Registered Independents: 181,371
Those statistics suggest that the Independents will pick where that electoral vote will go and looks winnable for Romney.
Just found this:
http://www.politico.com/politico44/2012/10/poll-romney-leads-obama-in-maine-congressional-district-138207.html
Poll: Romney leads Obama in Maine congressional district
In Maine's second congressional district, Romney actually tops Obama 49 percent to 44 percent.
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33 male
Fort Mill, SC
Where is your update for Real Clear Politics today? I noticed RCP has dropped NC from Romney to toss up...
Obama is winning this y'all, with between 280 and 347 electoral votes.
My guess is 303 Obama. Romney cannot win without Ohio. It's not looking good in the buckeye state. That pesky auto bailout helped low unemployment there...
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zzyzzx says
Oh, please...can I can cherry-pick some polls too?
Virginia 51-46 for Obama:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/VirginiaPollingMemo102512.pdf
Florida 47-45 for Obama:
http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/GroveFL102512.pdf
North Carolina 47-44 for Obama:
http://projects.newsobserver.com/under_the_dome/new_democraticleaning_poll_shows_obama_up_4744_in_nc
Wasn't that fun?
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Umm, get a grip. Obama isn't going to win in VA, FL, or NC. If you want to cherry pick data, cherry pick the more believeable stuff like polls in OR, PA, MI, OH or WI.
UnSkewedpolls has updated their guess as well:

If current trends continue, NJ and more than just that one district in Maine will go Romney as well.
My own personal guess hasn't changed from the picture I posted as my guess, except I'm thinking that the 2nd congressional in Maine is going for Romney.
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47 male
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I am so ready to blow out all of these absurd threads when Obama wins. I don't know how some of you can show your faces around here afterwards, but I'm sure you'll find a way.
..zzyzzx says
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Fort Mill, SC
So right-leaning RCP is now part of the "liberal media conspiracy?"
Romney is as likely to win Oregon as Obama is to win Mississippi.
This fact alone should force you to question the unskewed polls data.
If Romney gets even 300 electoral votes, I will turn in my liberal card and jump on the "liberal media bias" train with you nutjobs. Because obviously you guys are right.
Now if he doesn't, better yet, if Obama wins, will you guys turn in your "conservative" cards and admit the conspiracy doesn't exist?
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Oregon going for Romney, what a hoot. Ditto Minnesota. The polls would have to be totally off for that to happen.
Ohio: Obama by Five in Early Voting.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/263921-poll-obama-up-by-5-in-ohio-crushing-romney-among-early-voters
A big problem with many of these polls is they only call land-lines. Translation: Old Farts and Rednecks on disability who don't have cell phones. So the results are skewed.
Check out Intrade, the odds on Obama are sky high.
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david1 says
Any media outlet that does not fully support a Romney win, is by definition part of the "liberal media conspiracy."
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david1 says
They won't do that because its such a convenient ploy to use the "Liberal media" as a way to claim its as such and for placing blame when any article comes out that they don't happen to totally agree with.
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edvard2 says
The reps like to tout stuff about personal responsibility yet when things don't work out like they want, they resort to conspiracy theories which are basically theoretical cousins of blaming the environment.
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lostand confused says
For the most part, yeah. Even for his "supporters", if Romney were to win, there first order of business would be finding someone to replace him come next election cycle.
There is one group that loooves Mitt, and that is the Mormons. I think that their biggest fantasy is that Romney repeals the anti-polygamy laws so that all Mormon wives can be married to Mittens.
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Its nothing new. They've used the same basic tactics for years:
1: Anything that isn't exactly as they want are the following
A: Communist or Socialist ( either are used indispensably despite different meanings)
B: That such-and-such- idea or plan(s) are " Job killers"
C: Everyone is lazy ( except for themselves of course)
D: If its not agreeable- yup- must be the liberal media.
Many of these tactics were honed and perfected by McCarthy in the early 50's. Its apparently just as effective today.
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47 male
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This unskewedpolls idiocy is setting the right up for a huge fraud outcry when Obama wins the election. They will be convinced that the whole country is against Republicans and will take even more radical steps to further their agenda.
Very dangerous trend.
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I don't think so. If the Republicans lose this one then I think its going to be very clear to them that the tactics they're using aren't sticking like they used to. Going around and warning people about communism, using worn-out Reagan era economic plans as a model, and pandering to only one now slowly shrinking demographic in an increasingly diverse population isn't going to cut it anymore.
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edvard2 says
I think that is probably right. If you cant defeat a black president in a shitty economy you probably need to change your tactics. That said the right wing of the republican party (and that is pretty far right) will definitely have a major hissey fit and claim voter fraud or some other conspiracy theory as the cause and or that Romney wasnt conservative enough. For the country's sake I hope it isn't close... either way
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iwog says
The left leaning polls are setting up the left for a huge fraud outcry when Obama loses the election. They will be convinced that the whole country is against Democrats and will take more radical steps to further their election. Just like after the 2000 election.
In so far as Unskewed polls, they might end up being right, but there are a few states (like Oregon) that I would have to see to believe.
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zzyzzx, I know that you take pride in both your simple minded dishonesty as well s your gullibility. But here is what sounds like a pretty cogent analysis of unskewed polls.
http://freedomoutpost.com/2012/09/is-unskewedpolls-com-trustworthy/
As the author states:
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marcus says
If you bothered to look at my own personal electoral predictions, which I have posted twice, you can see what I really think, which is that I have no idea who is going to win, but it's more or less up to 3-4 states that can go either way. The part about how liberals acted after the 2000 election is fact.
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zzyzzx says
ROFLOL
They are going to look idiotic after the election. I expect you will refuse to talk about them after.
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edvard2 says
Yeah, that's what I believed the last time around and look how that turned out. It seems like the natural reaction of the Republican party is to move further to the right when they win, and to move further to the right when they lose. I don't expect anything different from them this time if, as I dearly hope, they lose again..
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SFace says
Updated as of today.
Obama - 260
Romney +200
Obama bet $520 for $200
Romney bet $100 for $200.
Romney is all but toast based on the most unbias accurate poll (money poll) there is. Obama wins in a landslide. I predict 300+
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gbenson says
He will, because as a ruler of USA Romney will be nothing but a tool of neo-cons. As such he won't care about American people neither about the future of this nation. For neo-cons consider USA only a tool to support the interests of Israel. When USA will loose its international superiority they will simply brainwash China that Israel is absolutely necessary to balance Islamic dominance in the Middle East, oh well, it will be called Middle West by that time.
It's amazing how American conservative miss that neo-cons are not conservative neither are they Republicans or Democrats. Yesterday they may be represented by Paul Wolfowits and tomorrow by Sen. Lieberman.
Today they promote Romney, who directly collects money from Israel, just because they failed to fully control Obama. They also directly agitate Jewish voters to support Romney, and they even do it from the foreign country. As the result, Romney will get Florida on Jewish vote and very likely to get Virginia for the same reason. Yet nobody talks about the fact that Romneys electors from Florida will represent a foreign country.
Does America deserve it? Well, in a sense the ignorance and stupidity of American voters maybe does, but this is a nation with some great achievements of the last two and a quarter centuries. I think this nation deserves to remain independent.
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http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4300061,00.html
I especially like the following at the end:
"(US President) 'Obamba' said that America's interests come before Israel's interests, until (Republican presidential candidate Mitt) Romney told him that he should be ashamed of himself."
You guys should be ashamed of yourselves and of your country, but if you vote for Romney your guilt will be less severe.
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South Pasadena, CA
Or how about this:
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4297707,00.html
"every American citizen who believes in God and his prophets should vote for Mitt Romney."
Would you imagine a Mexican bishop telling Americans for whom they should vote because it is good for Mexico? Or a Chinese buddhist monk because it is good for China?
Imagine what would be the reaction in the USA.
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SFace says
Final update from Bovada sportsbook.
Obama -375 (bet $375 for $100)
Romney + 285 (bet $35 for $100)