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Prices continue to rise, no decline into Fall

By iwog   Follow   Tue, 2 Oct 2012, 12:30pm   6,251 views   112 comments
In Lafayette CA 94549   Watch (1)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (6)   Dislike (5)  

Northern California specific but I imagine this is happening elsewhere too. Real Estate bears have been hoping that the spring and summer buying season would resolve into the winter doldrums, however it doesn't appear to be happening.

In fact markets are flat or still trending upward. I know myself and a few others were hoping for one last decline to provide one last buying window, but I don't think it's in the cards. I think we see a bull market for at least the next 5 years. We're definitely past bottom and waiting will cost.

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1. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,517 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

   73   12:21pm Fri 5 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   20% is reasonable, especially if rates continue to stay low. If rates spike in 2014, then I could see more than 20% down.

2. guruoracle Follow Befriend 25 comments

   74   12:31pm Fri 5 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)   Well our refinance just completed! Bought our house in the Walnut Creek/Tri-Valley area a little over 6 months ago on FHA and just refinanced into conventional 30 year fixed at 3.8%. Bought the house in the $600's and it is now worth in the $800's. Prices are going up. I am SO glad we did not listen to you people on this board and bought! Our house payment is now lower than rent and I don't give a hoot where housing prices go!!

3. mike2 Follow Befriend (2) 8 threads 150 comments El Cerrito, CA

   75   12:46pm Fri 5 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Congrats to you on your wise investment... The doomer and gloomers will say something like if you wait another 3 years you can get it lower and lower..at some point you can get it for free. The sky is falling! Who cares if the property goes up in value. You are living cheape than rent and you own it and you write off most of your payment.Walnut Creek is an great city.

4. Nobody Follow Befriend 10 threads 272 comments San Jose, CA

   76   12:51pm Fri 5 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   If it wasn't for the government intervention, the housing market wouldn't have turned around this quick. I guess I pay my tax to screw myself.....

5. dublin hillz Follow Befriend 10 threads 763 comments Dublin, CA

   77   12:58pm Fri 5 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Nobody says If it wasn't for the government intervention, the housing market wouldn't have turned around this quick. I guess I pay my tax to screw myself..... Yes and quiet likely the stock market would be sitting somewhere in the 8K-9K range. But it is what it is, savers were not considered as important as iinvestors and people who own tangible assets. The "wealth affect" had to be preserved for the greater good . . . .

6. mike2 Follow Befriend (2) 8 threads 150 comments El Cerrito, CA

   78   1:00pm Fri 5 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike (1)   True... But it doesn't really matter why it happened right now. It is all fake for sure but just enjoy it, make your moves, enjoy your money. Let the doomers and gloomers on here worry about details and rant all they want. Go to thebank and enjoy your life!

7. CDon Follow Befriend (1) 209 comments

   79   1:50pm Fri 5 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   dublin hillz says RentingForHalfTheCost says Raw says When the economy is improving that is called a bubble. When the economy is declining that is called a crash. So when are you supposed to buy? Buy when you can afford it. For many that is never. Well, that is a rather pessimistic view. How can you in good faith, in good conscience advise someone to be a lifelong renter at bay area rental prices. Have you seen what apartment complexes have been up to recently with the rent increases? Your advise is simply a flipside of a realtor saying that real estate only goes up. Cmon man! Yes pessimistic, but is it any worse than some of the false hope that you see here? The advice of some is that if you "wait" there will be some apparently magical time where fortress prices come crashing down. Instead of disseminating false hope, I would prefer realistic views. For some people, (particularly older folks where buy vs rent premiums are large) maybe it really IS best to rent forever. For some people, yes, you truly have been "priced out" if you are not willing to pay certain buy/rent premiums that some areas have maintained for 20+ years. In my view, either step up, pay the premium and buy, or resign yourself to the fact that you cannot afford it and move on. Dont just stay here and spread false hope that if people simply "wait" there will come some magical time that some people have been apparently waiting on since 1998 or so...

8. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 1,996 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

   80   1:54pm Fri 5 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike (1)   guruoracle says Bought the house in the $600's and it is now worth in the $800's. You really don't know what you can sell your house for until you try. Even with that said, if you mean you bought at 695k and can sell at 800k (still obeys your range). Then you will not really be making a killing. A 695k purchase has cost you more than you would like to admit. Closing costs, property taxes, interest, real estate fees, maintenance, initial landscape and internal changes, etc. etc, If you really crunch through the numbers you might just find out that 800k would get you back to even. Just saying... Your beating your chest about your appreciation in the wrong place here my friend. We know better.

9. Raw Follow Befriend 10 threads 694 comments

   81   2:35pm Fri 5 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   dublin hillz says RentingForHalfTheCost says Raw says When the economy is improving that is called a bubble. When the economy is declining that is called a crash. So when are you supposed to buy? Buy when you can afford it. For many that is never. Well, that is a rather pessimistic view. How can you in good faith, in good conscience advise someone to be a lifelong renter at bay area rental prices. Have you seen what apartment complexes have been up to recently with the rent increases? Your advise is simply a flipside of a realtor saying that real estate only goes up. Cmon man! Dublin makes a good point here. It is pessimistic. The first part of your statement is right on "Buy when you can afford it" If you you buy when you cannot afford it, you will sooner or later end up in foreclosure. The second part of your statement "For many that is never" is true, but pessimistic. If you can never buy, then you must be doing something wrong, and you might want to make some changes.

10. guruoracle Follow Befriend 25 comments

    82   2:37pm Fri 5 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)   RentingForHalfTheCost says guruoracle says Bought the house in the $600's and it is now worth in the $800's. You really do n't know what you can sell your house for until you try. Even with that said, if you mean you bought at 695k and can sell at 800k (still obeys your range). Then you will not really be making a killing. A 695k purchase has cost you more than you would like to admit. Closing costs, property taxes, interest, real estate fees, maintenance, initial landscape and internal changes, etc. etc, If you really crunch through the numbers you might just find out that 800k would get you back to even. Just saying... Your beating your chest about your appreciation in the wrong place here my friend. We know better. We bought in the lower $600's Mr. Negativity! Yes, we could easily sell as we live in a high demand area... Sorry for you... We beat the market!

11. everything Follow Befriend (2) 3 threads 546 comments Madison, WI

    83   2:46pm Fri 5 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Lol, interest rates continue to fall, shitpiles of money chasing anything resembling an asset based investment until the cows or chickens come home to roost. Can't miss the boat that sailed 20-30 years ago!

12. Raw Follow Befriend 10 threads 694 comments

    84   2:46pm Fri 5 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   guruoracle says We bought in the lower $600's Mr. Negativity! Yes, we could easily sell as we live in a high demand area... Sorry for you... We beat the market! Congrats on your purchase. It always feels good to buy at the bottom. Now if you can show me how I can do it with stocks.

13. BoomAndBustCycle Follow Befriend 28 threads 351 comments

    85   4:05pm Fri 5 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   I'm hoping to refinance in the new year... when rates HOPEFULLY fall under 3%.. I thought for that to happen.. Home prices would have to dip further.. But it may happen even with a flat or rising market. Last year what killed the housing market was the debt ceiling crisis.

14. BoomAndBustCycle Follow Befriend 28 threads 351 comments

    86   4:10pm Fri 5 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Readers says Yes, NOT is right across the board. The best thing I have read here in weeks. I see nothing selling so prices are going up? Per whom? The owners listings? Anyone can ask anything for their shack and most think their dump is worth 20/50x more than it really is to someone ready, willing and able to buy it. Prices are definitely not dropping. I get REDFIN updates daily for my neighborhood. And I'm amazed by how many high $400K... up to mid-$600K homes are selling. Last year at this time.. homes in $250-$350K range were the ONLY thing selling. The $400K-$600K home sales is definitely pushing the median higher... Looks like those that weathered the economic storm are finally buying with these 3% rates. It probably won't last... But it'll be a see-saw of sales in different ranges for years to come.

15. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 1,996 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    87   4:22pm Fri 5 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   guruoracle says We bought in the lower $600's Mr. Negativity! Yes, we could easily sell as we live in a high demand area... Sorry for you... We beat the market! You might, if you are willing to do some fixup work to your place, sell in the high 600's if the next fool happens to be looking in the next few months. Good luck to you. Remember, you only find out what your house is worth when you sell. Any other method is just guess work. Enjoy your 30 years of debt trap. Not my cut of tea.

16. BoomAndBustCycle Follow Befriend 28 threads 351 comments

    88   12:24am Sat 6 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Darrell In Phoenix says BoomAndBustCycle says Prices are definitely not dropping. Absolutely prices are falling in price per square foot. Not in my neck of the woods... Flat at worst in price per sq foot. But i do agree, u can get a 3000 plus sq foot house for cheap by the foot. But that is because no one wants mcmansions anymore. 1600-2200 sq feet homes are more desireable now. No one wants to pay to heat or cool a lot of empty unused space.

17. thomaswong.1986 Follow Befriend 14 threads 2,820 comments

    89   12:37am Sat 6 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Bay Area...2013 for South Bay will be the next inflection for declines. God help you if your employed at HP. The median price paid for all new and resale houses and condos sold in the Bay Area last month was $410,000. That was down 2.6 percent from $421,000 in July, and up 10.8 percent from $370,000 in August 2011 http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2012/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay120914.aspx Government-insured FHA home purchase loans, a popular choice among first-time buyers, accounted for 16.1 percent of all Bay Area home purchase mortgages last month. That was the same as in July and down from 21.1 percent a year earlier. The typical monthly mortgage payment that Bay Area buyers committed themselves to paying last month was $1,491, down from $1,522 in July, and up from $1,460 a year ago.

18. JodyChunder Follow Befriend (3) 16 threads 1,367 comments Victorville, CA Premium

    90   1:52am Sat 6 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike   RentingForHalfTheCost says Buy when you can afford it. For many that is never. I still don't think that's great advice. I could easily afford to overpay for all kinds of commodities but that doesn't mean I'm getting good value for my dollars. Buy when nobody's pouring gasoline on the fire.

19. JodyChunder Follow Befriend (3) 16 threads 1,367 comments Victorville, CA Premium

    91   1:56am Sat 6 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   guruoracle says Our house payment is now lower than rent and I don't give a hoot where housing prices go!! Ha! Come on...nobody actually says/writes candyass'd shit like 'I don't give a hoot!'

20. 37108605 Follow Befriend 1 threads 1,055 comments

    92   11:07am Sat 6 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   JodyChunder says RentingForHalfTheCost says Buy when you can afford it. For many that is never. I still don't think that's great advice. I could easily afford to overpay for all kinds of commodities but that doesn't mean I'm getting good value for my dollars. Buy when nobody's pouring gasoline on the fire. You are correct. It is NOT an issue of affordability. It IS an issue of intelligence, as most large purchases are.

21. 37108605 Follow Befriend 1 threads 1,055 comments

    93   11:10am Sat 6 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   BoomAndBustCycle says Readers says Yes, NOT is right across the board. The best thing I have read here in weeks. I see nothing selling so prices are going up? Per whom? The owners listings? Anyone can ask anything for their shack and most think their dump is worth 20/50x more than it really is to someone ready, willing and able to buy it. Prices are definitely not dropping. I get REDFIN updates daily for my neighborhood. And I'm amazed by how many high $400K... up to mid-$600K homes are selling. Last year at this time.. homes in $250-$350K range were the ONLY thing selling. The $400K-$600K home sales is definitely pushing the median higher... Looks like those that weathered the economic storm are finally buying with these 3% rates. It probably won't last... But it'll be a see-saw of sales in different ranges for years to come. It is ALWAYS the highest PRICED place that pushes the numbers. Again take 30 250K places and throw in say one at 1M and two at 2M and say three 5M listings, average them out and see what happens to the so-called "average listing price." Is that end result real then? NO.

22. New Renter Follow Befriend (3) 13 threads 2,195 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    94   5:43pm Sat 6 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   guruoracle says Our house payment is now lower than rent and I don't give a hoot where housing prices go!! Oh you will if home prices and rents drop such that both are well below your current payments. Of course in this scenario it will be higher interest rates that have killed home prices and high unemployment and lowered wages that killed rent. Not saying its gonna happen, only that it could.

23. Raw Follow Befriend 10 threads 694 comments

    95   5:49pm Sat 6 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   New Renter says guruoracle says Our house payment is now lower than rent and I don't give a hoot where housing prices go!! Oh you will if home prices and rents drop such that both are well below your current payments. Of course in this scenario it will be higher interest rates that have killed home prices and high unemployment and lowered wages that killed rent. Not saying its gonna happen, only that it could. Will never happen! You will never ever see home prices this low again. Five years from now people will look back and say...."It was so obvious home prices were set to double, how could I have missed it?"

24. Mick Russom Follow Befriend (2) 7 threads 530 comments Belmont, CA

    96   6:09pm Sat 6 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Warning: moderated thread.

25. New Renter Follow Befriend (3) 13 threads 2,195 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    97   9:31am Sun 7 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Raw says New Renter says guruoracle says Our house payment is now lower than rent and I don't give a hoot where housing prices go!! Oh you will if home prices and rents drop such that both are well below your current payments. Of course in this scenario it will be higher interest rates that have killed home prices and high unemployment and lowered wages that killed rent. Not saying its gonna happen, only that it could. Will never happen! You will never ever see home prices this low again. Five years from now people will look back and say...."It was so obvious home prices were set to double, how could I have missed it?" That could happen too. It probably will in some markets. Its hard to underestimate the greed snd stupidity of people when it comes to RE.

26. Raw Follow Befriend 10 threads 694 comments

    98   10:08am Sun 7 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Yup says guruoracle says Bought the house in the $600's and it is now worth in the $800's. Prices are going up. I am SO glad we did not listen to you people on this board and bought! Our house payment is now lower than rent and I don't give a hoot where housing prices go!! You have a house that you think is worth 800K a 33% increase in value in 6 months......but you aren't worried......you don't even care where house prices go..... That is possibly the stupidest thing I have read on the internet. You must work for NAR, that or you are a FOOL! Why would he be worried? He already has a $200,000 cushion in the unlikely event home prices headed south. I think he is sleeping with a smile on his face.

27. Raw Follow Befriend 10 threads 694 comments

    99   10:23am Sun 7 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Yup says I hope that prices continue to go up, just so I can sell one of you fools my home (supposedly almost not underwater now HAHA) and GTFO before it implodes again....... Sounds to me like you were the FOOL.

28. Raw Follow Befriend 10 threads 694 comments

    100   10:44am Sun 7 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Yup says Yes i was. The key thing there is I WAS. Call me a reformed fool. WTF are you? I don't think you are reformed at all. Just because you lost money in real estate does not make all real estate at all times a foolish investment. I have been buying real estate as much as I can, and am as glad as can be.

29. Raw Follow Befriend 10 threads 694 comments

    101   11:06am Sun 7 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Yup says I have only had paper losses and If you are correct prices are goin up, so by your definition I am not a fool. You were a "fool" by your definition, not mine. By my definition you were just unlucky. I do think, if you hold on to your home you will recover your lost equity.

30. Raw Follow Befriend 10 threads 694 comments

    102   11:15am Sun 7 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   LOL Darrell, draw a trend line from 1996 to present and tell me what you see.

31. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 228 threads 2,748 comments

    103   11:52am Sun 7 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Raw says LOL Darrell, draw a trend line from 1996 to present and tell me what you see. How many people on this board bought pre-1996 vs. in the last ten years???

32. Raw Follow Befriend 10 threads 694 comments

    104   12:44pm Sun 7 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Should you buy a house in 2012? http://money.cnn.com/video/pf/2011/12/21/pf_ate_real_estate_outlook_2012.cnnmoney/

33. mike2 Follow Befriend (2) 8 threads 150 comments El Cerrito, CA

    105   1:24pm Sun 7 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   When will that be? They have already cratered 65% or more in some places. If it is affordable now and cheaper than rent why wait? Just talked a friend of mine who is paying $2k per month for a 1 bedrrom apt in San Jose in an "OK" area. 2bdrms are $2300-2500-- he says. If you can buy for anywhere near that price why wait? There is ALWAYS the probablerisk of prices going higher rather than lower right now. Especially with all the magic tricks the Fed is doing.True, it is all manipilated but there is still an aopportunity to buy on the cheaper side than renting. If you think Prices are going to drop another 65% I believe you are sadly mistaken. The only way that would happen is if there was a COMPLETE COLLAPSE of the economy...I mean total collapse with riots in the streets, food shortages, 305 REAL unemployment. If that happens no one will care about renting, owning or your jobs. It will be Soylent green 1975!

34. Raw Follow Befriend 10 threads 694 comments

    106   1:29pm Sun 7 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Darrell In Phoenix says Why wait? Prices are falling. DO NOT buying housing now folks. You will never get a job with the NAR.

35. Raw Follow Befriend 10 threads 694 comments

    107   2:01pm Sun 7 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Darrell In Phoenix says Who is nar? Nutbag Association of Realtors.

36. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 1,996 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    108   8:52pm Sun 7 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Raw says Will never happen! You will never ever see home prices this low again. Five years from now people will look back and say Awesome. That means in 5 years our deficit/debt plan will be in place. My salary will be much higher and we haven't gone to war with another country. Love it. Thanks genie.

37. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 1,996 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    109   8:55pm Sun 7 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Raw says Should you buy a house in 2012? http://money.cnn.com/video/pf/2011/12/21/pf_ate_real_estate_outlook_2012.cnnmoney/ Hell No! If you have cash then invest. The probability of the public companies appreciating in this market is much higher than the housing market. Now, if you are penniless and can swindle a mortgage with FHA and some lying, what are you waiting for? Better to have some skin in a game. What is the worse thing can happen to you? You end up penniless again. No brainer really and many people in this country are taking that choice. Should the smart money (i.e. the not penniless fools) follow? Hell NO!

38. BayArea Follow Befriend (3) 49 threads 368 comments Oakland, CA

    110   8:59pm Sun 7 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Darrell In Phoenix says Prices are falling and sure have a long way down. At least in the bay area anyways. Your comic-book slope-line is hilarious, lol. What are you showing there anyway?

39. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 1,996 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    111   9:04pm Sun 7 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   mike2 says If you think Prices are going to drop another 65% I believe you are sadly mistaken. The only way that would happen is if there was a COMPLETE COLLAPSE of the economy Could happen. It is a house of cards right now and any shutter in the Bond sales or that "Fiscal cliff" thingy that seems to never go away could send us back to the dark side. The US are not paying with the house money anymore. They really have no money, except the historical perception that they can make money in the future. I respectfully disagree. I think the merry-go-round is over. Has been for about 10 years now. Many people just don't want to admit it.

40. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,447 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    112   8:15am Wed 17 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   RentingForHalfTheCost says They really have no money The United States still creates plenty of wealth. We have a production distribution problem caused by Republicans, not a lack of money.

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