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House prices may not return to peak until 2023

By tovarichpeter   Follow   Wed, 26 Sep 2012, 10:16am   2,277 views   20 comments
In South San Francisco CA 94080   Watch (1)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike  

http://money.cnn.com/2012/09/26/real_estate/home-prices-peak/index.html?iid=HP_LN

Fiserv forecasts prices will bounce back an average of 3.7% a year for the next five years -- a rate that would still leave prices 20% below the peak. At that forecasted growth rate, the national average high of $238,000 would not be hit again until 2023. It could take even longer in some areas. "In some hard-hit markets, prices could take decades to recover," said Fiserv economist David Stiff. Among those facing a long haul: Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada, the states most caught up in the speculative feeding frenzy of the mid-2000s.

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1. 37108605 Follow Befriend 1 threads 1,055 comments

   1   10:35am Wed 26 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   RentalWatch says With prices projected to fall over the next decade, how could returning to peak be possible? How could anything be real after this http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=7dlhhfpFBTk#t=158s

2. ELC Follow Befriend (3) 3 threads 657 comments Fort Lauderdale, FL

   2   3:01am Sun 7 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   tovarichpeter says House prices may not return to peak until 2023 What a stupid thing to write. As if housing should naturally return to peak. If housing returns to peak this time lots of people should go to jail. And if crooks weren't in office back then many would have.

3. ELC Follow Befriend (3) 3 threads 657 comments Fort Lauderdale, FL

   3   3:05am Sun 7 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Billybigrig says Shills and RE pumpers would have to mislead and convince the general public that RE never depreciates , then generate a sense of false optimisim for the market... If you read this blog you can see that mentality already exists even though there isn't much tolerance for shills here. All that's needed is easy financing and an official tolerance for mortgage fraud. Greed is built-in. No need for pumpers.

4. Zakrajshek Follow Befriend 67 comments Chico, CA

   4   7:45am Sun 7 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   If the federal reserve is allowed to continue to debase our money, prices may recover by 2075, but only because the dollar will be worth that much less. To give an example of what they've done to the dollar since the fed was created in 1913, today's dollar is worth about 1/20 of its 1913 value. But, if the federal reserve and its philosophy are canned, house prices will be the same in 2075 as they were in 2000. As I understand, house prices were constant from 1776 to 1913.

5. C Boy Follow Befriend 1 threads 208 comments Arlington, TX

   5   8:06am Sun 7 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Zakrajshek says If the federal reserve is allowed to continue to debase our money, prices may recover by 2075, but only because the dollar will be worth that much less. To give an example of what they've done to the dollar since the fed was created in 1913, today's dollar is worth about 1/20 of its 1913 value. But, if the federal reserve and its philosophy are canned, house prices will be the same in 2075 as they were in 2000. As I understand, house prices were constant from 1776 to 1913. Population increase and zoning along with higher fuel prices will drive prices higher long before 2075.

6. Zakrajshek Follow Befriend 67 comments Chico, CA

   6   8:42am Sun 7 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   What I meant in my comment was that prices may recover to peak bubble values by 2075, if the fed continues debasing the currency.

7. ELC Follow Befriend (3) 3 threads 657 comments Fort Lauderdale, FL

   7   10:47am Sun 7 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Zakrajshek says What I meant in my comment was that prices may recover to peak bubble values by 2075, if the fed continues debasing the currency. It's interesting how many much weight the unknowing put on currency. I guess the belief is rooted in disdain for Government. Both gold and real estate have dropped and risen despite what was done to the currency. If only it were that simple.

8. ELC Follow Befriend (3) 3 threads 657 comments Fort Lauderdale, FL

   8   10:53am Sun 7 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   C Boy says Population increase and zoning along with higher fuel prices will drive prices higher long before 2075. Who cares what happens in 2075 anyway. By then I'll be on Social Security livin large with my teenage girlfriends.

9. JohnLaw Follow Befriend 1 threads 133 comments

   9   11:42am Sun 7 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Historically, an average house is worth about 100 ounces of gold. However, do to current uncertainty in currency markets, there is a lot of speculation built into the price of gold. So its tough to say what a house is worth in fiat.

10. 37108605 Follow Befriend 1 threads 1,055 comments

    10   10:53am Mon 8 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Darrell In Phoenix says A house is worth construction cost plus margin less depreciation. It isn't that difficult. It is for those in remorse.

11. 37108605 Follow Befriend 1 threads 1,055 comments

    11   11:34am Mon 8 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike   Darrell In Phoenix says Reader says It is for those in remorse. LOL..... well... there are alot of them. Think of the tens of millions of people who paid a grossly inflated price for what is always a depreciating asset. Basically anyone who bought a house from 1998-2012. Yes, I know it is astonishing. The more I look around the more I realise how utterly fucked up Americans are from denial to greed to simple mental illness.

12. pazuzu Follow Befriend 6 threads 198 comments

    12   12:31pm Mon 8 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (5)   Dislike   "Yes, I know it is astonishing. The more I look around the more I realise how utterly fucked up Americans are from denial to greed to simple mental illness." Its not entirely their fault though. The NAR, the FED, the whole REIC is a massive force which deploys propaganda constantly, lobbys and influences our politicians, our laws. Hell they have most of America convinced that going into debt to live in a house is The American Dream. LMAO

13. 37108605 Follow Befriend 1 threads 1,055 comments

    13   12:41pm Mon 8 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   pazuzu says Hell they have most of America convinced that going into debt to live in a house is The American Dream. LMAO You know you have to laugh because it is so bizarre and hideous there is no alternative.

14. bob2356 Follow Befriend 3 threads 2,498 comments

    14   12:43pm Mon 8 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Zakrajshek says To give an example of what they've done to the dollar since the fed was created in 1913, today's dollar is worth about 1/20 of its 1913 value. Everything else was 1/20 the value in 1913. The only thing that matters is the relationship of labor to goods. Money is only a place marker. The number printed on a piece of paper is meaningless as long as the relationship between labor and goods stays the same.

15. ELC Follow Befriend (3) 3 threads 657 comments Fort Lauderdale, FL

    15   1:26pm Mon 8 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike   Darrell In Phoenix says A house is worth construction cost plus margin less depreciation. It isn't that difficult. I've found very few people understand, a house is merely an improvement upon the land. The improvement can depreciate to the point that it actually devalues the land that it's on.

16. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,810 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    16   2:10pm Mon 8 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (2)   Housing will return to ist peak in 2023??? hallelujah!!!! I ran the number on Phoenix (currently up 30% city wide, peak to trough it dropped 65%) If prices increase from their mean of $150K today, to the peak mean of $300K in 2023, that is roughly 5.5% appreciation a year... COOL!!!! So, in addition to my rental return on cash of 13% I am now earning, i could add in boucoup appreciation... If this prediction turns out to be true, I will be holding housing worth $3.5 million dollars in 2023, just 11 years from now!!! not even counting all the rental money I'll have made!! This is such a positive prediction, I feel like dancing, somebody play some salsa music!!!! [miserably sad nonsense from dimwitdarrel and ican'treader to follow forthwith]

17. duckhead Follow Befriend 3 threads 81 comments

    17   3:03pm Mon 8 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   “If this prediction turns out to be true, I will be holding housing worth $3.5 million dollars in 2023,” Exactly my brother, exactly! We Realtors will stride the earth with giant footsteps, calling all the shots, getting all the college coeds (wink wink eh Prof. Roberto), all because we went as DEEP INTO DEBT AS WE POSSIBLY COULD to buy buy buy houses NOW NOW NOW. 3.5 million will buy a lot of Scorpion antidote if you know what I mean, nudge nudge HAZOOOOBI!!!

18. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,810 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    18   3:19pm Mon 8 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   common duckhead, we already discussed this... It's scotch for rattlesnake bites, tequila for scorpions!!!!

19. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,520 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    19   3:29pm Mon 8 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   robertoaribas says This is such a positive prediction, I feel like dancing, somebody play some salsa music!!!! BAZINGACHINGA!

20. HomePriceFuturesTrader Follow Befriend (3) 3 threads 6 comments Greenwich, CT

    20   7:02am Wed 10 Oct 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Here's a graph that puts the "return to the peak in 2023" in perspective. It shows a graph of the Case Shiller 10-city index (CUS) since the peak (in black), prices on the CME Case Shiller CUS futures (in green), and "projections" from the Nov 2016 mid-market futures prices assuming 3 or 4% HPA. The graph may be useful in showing a) how far prices (or the CS index) have fallen, b) how much we've bounced, and c) how far we'd have to climb to get back to the previous peak. I have no idea when (or if ) we'll get there, but the futures prices indidate that some traders think that we'll be about halfway there by Nov 2016.