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It’s An Unbelievably Good Time to Sell

By gregpfielding   Follow   Tue, 11 Sep 2012, 9:48am   11,870 views   157 comments
In Danville CA 94526   Watch (0)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)  

Here’s a bold prediction: There will be a record number of new listings in San Francisco this September.

Why? Simple: It’s an unbelievably good time to sell real estate.

http://bayarearealestatetrends.com/2012/09/07/dear-san-francisco-property-owners-its-an-unbelievably-good-time-to-sell/

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1. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 2,004 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

   118   5:16pm Thu 13 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   E-man says 4.5% fixed interest rate on the property for the next 30 years. Friend at work just got 3.275% for 30 years with no point. I charge him more than that when he needs me to spot him on lunch money. I told him he is living in Gov't subsidized housing now. He is a PhD with 20 years experience. A very sharp guy, one of the best in his field, and he needs a hand-out from the gov't to buy a house. Nice.

2. mell Follow Befriend (5) 54 threads 1,304 comments Premium

   119   5:40pm Thu 13 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   E-man says freak80 says Real interest rates are already negative. Cash sitting in a bank account loses its value via inflation faster than nominal interest can make up for it. Thank you Bernanke. Hope you and your buddies in Big Finance enjoy your free money at my expense. We're little fish. We have to play their game, or we're going to lose. If you don't want to get screwed by inflation, do something with your money to get some yields. Where do you go and get some return on your money as well as return of your money? RE seems like a safe bet to me. Gold might go up, but it doesn't produce any income. Learn from your victory. Prosper from your failure. Prefer stocks over RE because I can set stop limits for when the next crash comes and sell automatically or within a mouse-click. Would hate the feeling of being stuck with anything for too long when the tide turns. Gold might go up? It rocketed from lows to high after the bazooka was announced. Free monies for everybody! ;)

3. tclement Follow Befriend (3) 8 threads 48 comments Oakland, CA

   120   6:11pm Thu 13 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Or, quoting the NAR, "Now is an incredibly good time to buy or sell real estate." :)

4. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 2,004 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

   121   8:36am Fri 14 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   tclement says Or, quoting the NAR, "Now is an incredibly good time to buy or sell real estate." :) If they were being more open and honest in their words then the above would read more like this. "Now is an incredibily good time to give me two times your savings that has taken you years to accumulate". Assuming 3.5% down and a 6% rob from NAR (national assembly of robbers)

5. FunTime Follow Befriend (3) 38 threads 801 comments San Francisco, CA

   122   10:40am Fri 14 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   RentingForHalfTheCost says "Now is an incredibily good time to give me two times your savings that has taken you years to accumulate". Better than working every day! With that much money at stake, I expect the robbers to come out.

6. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

   123   10:49am Fri 14 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   E-man says RE seems like a safe bet to me. I'm considering a house purchase in my area. RE is very cheap realative to rents here. But it's Corning, NY...the epitome of a "one industry town." If Corning, Inc goes tits-up or moves to Texas like everything else, RE will tank. Like nearby Binghamton. Heck the local RE market probably tracks the GLW stock ticker pretty closely.

7. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,785 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

   124   5:21pm Fri 14 Sep 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   tclement says Or, quoting the NAR, "Now is an incredibly good time to buy or sell real estate." :) I remember ripping up that NAR statement on zillow back in 2006... Back then, I always said "sell now" and got harassed by real estate zealots.... Kind of like today in reverse!!! :-)

8. SFace Follow Befriend (2) 61 threads 1,301 comments Premium

   125   12:01pm Tue 18 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   gregpfielding says Here’s a bold prediction: There will be a record number of new listings in San Francisco this September. Why? Simple: It’s an unbelievably good time to sell real estate. Epic Fail, unless you mean record low. It's bascally one month supply for a region of 8M people. Inventory San Francisco Dec 2012 6,798 Nov 2012 8,173 Oct 2012 9,366 Sep 2012 9,894 Aug 2012 10,154 July 2012 10,674 Sep 2011 19,068 http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/california/san-francisco/

9. gregpfielding Follow Befriend (9) 43 threads 288 comments Danville, CA gregpfielding's website

   126   12:29pm Tue 18 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   It's true. Andrew's prediction (which I shared), didn't come to pass. The market is far from fundamentals.

10. Mark D Follow Befriend 63 threads 481 comments Simi Valley, CA

    127   12:30pm Tue 18 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   my bold prediction: wait a couple years and sell for 20% more than what you can get now.

11. SFace Follow Befriend (2) 61 threads 1,301 comments Premium

    128   1:02pm Tue 18 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   gregpfielding says It's true. Andrew's prediction (which I shared), didn't come to pass. The market is far from fundamentals. It's your prediction as you signed off on it. Sorry, but saying record inventory when the opposite happened is an epic failure. Blaming the fundamental just demonstate your incompentence as it should be accounted for. Greg: You should sell your house now before inventory floods the market Seller: ok Seller 3 months later: What happended to the flood of inventory you talked about? I sold too early. Greg: Market is not following fundamentals Seller: WTF does that mean? Not following fundamentals, seriously?

12. tannenbaum Follow Befriend 4 threads 76 comments

    129   1:20pm Tue 18 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   SFace says gregpfielding says Here’s a bold prediction: There will be a record number of new listings in San Francisco this September. Why? Simple: It’s an unbelievably good time to sell real estate. Epic Fail, unless you mean record low. It's bascally one month supply for a region of 8M people. Inventory San Francisco Dec 2012 6,798 Nov 2012 8,173 Oct 2012 9,366 Sep 2012 9,894 Aug 2012 10,154 July 2012 10,674 Sep 2011 19,068 http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/california/san-francisco/ Actually, these numbers do not include San Jose, but yes, they are very low indeed. The real question is when will inventory bottom? It's not like it can continue going down to zero and that's the end of the RE market as we know it. At some point, it must rise.

13. bmwman91 Follow Befriend (7) 37 threads 1,529 comments Mountain View, CA bmwman91's website Premium

    130   1:38pm Tue 18 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   tannenbaum says It's not like it can continue going down to zero and that's the end of the RE market as we know it. It would be very amusing though. The CAr would starve to death. Bwahahahaha

14. gregpfielding Follow Befriend (9) 43 threads 288 comments Danville, CA gregpfielding's website

    131   1:39pm Tue 18 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Here's an updated blog post on it: http://bayarearealestatetrends.com/2012/12/18/bay-area-housing-inventory-half-of-last-december-asking-prices-up-56/ tannenbaum says The real question is when will inventory bottom? Tough to say without really understanding why it's so low. Yeah, foreclosures are down, but that's only a small fraction of it. And, there was even more negative equity in the last few years than there is today, so that's not it. Herd mentality maybe. I dunno.

15. mell Follow Befriend (5) 54 threads 1,304 comments Premium

    132   1:40pm Tue 18 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   SFace says gregpfielding says It's true. Andrew's prediction (which I shared), didn't come to pass. The market is far from fundamentals. It's your prediction as you signed off on it. Sorry, but saying record inventory when the opposite happened is an epic failure. Blaming the fundamental just demonstate your incompentence as it should be accounted for. Greg: You should sell your house now before inventory floods the market Seller: ok Seller 3 months later: What happended to the flood of inventory you talked about? I sold too early. Greg: Market is not following fundamentals Seller: WTF does that mean? Not following fundamentals, seriously? So what? if the seller sold for a profit then a profit is a profit and you cannot go broke making profits. This mentality of trying to time the highs is exactly what leads to the next crisis when prices crash again and then it's all poor me, let's get another taxpayer bailout! I seems like a suspiciously high amount of patnet posters always make the perfect trade with housing, but I have easily left $20K on the table a couple of times by selling stocks too early, it beats losing your ass though. If you want to treat housing like a riverboating stock casino, fine, just get rid off all the deductions and bailouts first and let the taxpayer off the hook - or maybe Patrick can add a fantasy housing section where we all can make bets and gamble against each other a little bit so everybody can bet on housing without buying RE or REITS ;)

16. SFace Follow Befriend (2) 61 threads 1,301 comments Premium

    133   1:51pm Tue 18 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   mell says So what? if the seller sold for a profit then a profit is a profit and you cannot go broke making profits. Greg and his group was adament that Sep 2012 was an "unbelievably good time to sell". Sorry, that is just not the case and simply horrible advice (so far).

17. SFace Follow Befriend (2) 61 threads 1,301 comments Premium

    134   1:53pm Tue 18 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   gregpfielding says Tough to say without really understanding why it's so low Landlords don't want to sell now, they'll wait it out for 2-3 years when the mass retail buyers come on board. When you are carrying a 3.5% fixed rate mortgage or less, it gives staying power.

18. mell Follow Befriend (5) 54 threads 1,304 comments Premium

    135   1:57pm Tue 18 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   SFace says mell says So what? if the seller sold for a profit then a profit is a profit and you cannot go broke making profits. Greg and his group was adament that Sep 2012 was an "unbelievably good time to sell". Sorry, that is just not the case and simply horrible advice. Horrible? How much have prices risen since then? It's a bit early to make that call. If I tell somebody I'd sell AAPL at $600 and it goes to $750 but then drops to $450 I'd consider that a good call, even if it doesn't drop for a while. Staying with 10%-15% of the top is not that bad, isn't it? Ok. I see you've added so far, I can go with that.

19. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,785 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    136   1:59pm Tue 18 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   robertoaribas says sell now, before prices go up more... greg you are kind of like all the realtors who kept saying 'buy now' as the market clearly pointed otherwise. supply is low, prices are rising... selling today is a remarkably poor idea. Well, my reliance on supply, demand, foreclosures rates etc. seems to be proving itself again... even in markets other than phoenix. Prices up, selling in September was a bad idea, as I predicted!

20. gregpfielding Follow Befriend (9) 43 threads 288 comments Danville, CA gregpfielding's website

    137   2:19pm Tue 18 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   SFace says mell says So what? if the seller sold for a profit then a profit is a profit and you cannot go broke making profits. Greg and his group was adament that Sep 2012 was an "unbelievably good time to sell". Sorry, that is just not the case and simply horrible advice (so far). Easy tiger. First, I'd recommend you actually read the Andrew's article. Then, I'd recommend you actually look at his body of work. http://bayarearealestatetrends.com/author/schnageler1/ He's one of the good guys and even wrote a book about the horrors of NAR. He should actually be a favorite of patnet. http://www.amazon.com/Homeownership-Any-Cost-Association-ebook/dp/B006FTIIW2

21. gregpfielding Follow Befriend (9) 43 threads 288 comments Danville, CA gregpfielding's website

    138   2:20pm Tue 18 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   robertoaribas says Well, my reliance on supply, demand, foreclosures rates etc. seems to be proving itself again... even in markets other than phoenix. Prices up, selling in September was a bad idea, as I predicted! Yep. As long as supply is this tight, prices will continue to rise. The change will come at some point. It just wasn't this Fall.

22. varmint Follow Befriend 2 threads 100 comments

    139   2:28pm Tue 18 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   SFace says mell says So what? if the seller sold for a profit then a profit is a profit and you cannot go broke making profits. Greg and his group was adament that Sep 2012 was an "unbelievably good time to sell". Sorry, that is just not the case and simply horrible advice. I wouldn't be so quick to bury Greg for this. How lagging are the price indicators? It's not like someone deciding to get out is selling and closing before the end of the month. I'd imagine the typical owner who says "honey it's time to sell" in mid September are included in the November or even December sales figures.

23. gregpfielding Follow Befriend (9) 43 threads 288 comments Danville, CA gregpfielding's website

    140   3:00pm Tue 18 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   It's also worth noting that, in some spots around the Bay, September WAS the best time to sell. Check out Danville, broken down into price tiers.

24. evilmonkeyboy Follow Befriend (1) 2 threads 119 comments San Jose, CA

    141   5:01pm Tue 18 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   robertoaribas says ercc: I would be more worried in the bay area, particularly any price point north of say $500K. In the IWOG price/rent area, it seems that rents are solid and increasing, demand is strong, and inventory is down. Not just IWOG, but everybody else trying to buy seems to verify this.. to IGNORE current price trends and supply/demand, because "someday it could be different" is just silliness. It seems like rents are dropping in the BA, they peaked (out of control) in the summer and now there are lots of rentals on the market. But what do I know I just rent here in the BA.

25. E-man Follow Befriend (31) 34 threads 2,545 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    142   5:07pm Tue 18 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   gregpfielding says It's also worth noting that, in some spots around the Bay, September WAS the best time to sell. Greg, Can I pile on and pound on you? LOL!!! Why sell in September when there's a chance that you can get more money selling in Spring of 2013, wouldn't you agree? Also, sales that closed in September was already in escrow 30-45 days before that so that chart is lagging by a month to two. Given where we are today with interest rate and inventory, I think it's a little premature to sell. This recovery has some legs. Let it ride. If it's too late to sell in 3 to 5 years. Just hang onto to the property for the cashflow. The trick is being able to weather through another down RE turn if that were to be the case.

26. jvolstad Follow Befriend (4) 989 threads 1,122 comments San Antonio, TX jvolstad's website

    143   5:07pm Tue 18 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I had a Realturd call me earlier today and was telling what a great time it was to buy. He told me he had all his savings in Real Estate. I felt like telling him to "F Off".

27. FunTime Follow Befriend (3) 38 threads 801 comments San Francisco, CA

    144   5:15pm Tue 18 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   gregpfielding says Tough to say without really understanding why it's so low. Yeah, foreclosures are down, but that's only a small fraction of it. And, there was even more negative equity in the last few years than there is today, so that's not it. Are numbers available for empty houses not for sale? Building is very slow, right? How many people missed 2005 and now are just holding on until prices get there again? Some of these people must have been the ones selling this spring/summer/fall as prices were significantly up.

28. jvolstad Follow Befriend (4) 989 threads 1,122 comments San Antonio, TX jvolstad's website

    145   5:15pm Tue 18 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   evilmonkeyboy says It seems like rents are dropping in the BA, they peaked (out of control) in the summer and now there are lots of rentals on the market. But what do I know I just rent here in the BA. I'm moving out of the Bay Area at the end of this month. (my contract is over) My landlady is trying to get a $350 a month increase for a very small Millbrae area cottage. I'm currently paying $1,500 a month. I wish her well, but that's a lot of money for a 400 sq ft property.

29. E-man Follow Befriend (31) 34 threads 2,545 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    146   5:17pm Tue 18 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   evilmonkeyboy says It seems like rents are dropping in the BA, they peaked (out of control) in the summer and now there are lots of rentals on the market. But what do I know I just rent here in the BA. Monkey, I just rented a 3/2 townhouse in San Jose for $2,450/month to a couple making over $215k combined. It was rented on the first day of open house. I had 4 inquiries, which is low compared to the Summer no doubt. 3 weeks ago, we rented a 2/2 condo in South San Jose for $1,650/month. We had 7 inquiries on that. The properties that we rented out in Spring and Summer had tons of inquiries. So far, we were fortunate to be able to rent all of our units out on the 1st day of open house. People showed up with paystubs, credit report and their checkbook in hand. I make them go get me a cashier's check though. I can pull up so much of their information on my iPhone right there that makes my partner goes crazy. LOL!!!

30. E-man Follow Befriend (31) 34 threads 2,545 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    147   5:20pm Tue 18 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   FunTime says How many people missed 2005 and now are just holding on until prices get there again? Some of these people must have been the ones selling this spring/summer/fall as prices were significantly up. This is great observation. The people that missed or bought near the top, but can no longer hang onto their property, due to not having enough equity or income to refinance, will start selling in the coming years. It would be nice to get a figure on it though.

31. David Losh Follow Befriend (2) 8 threads 1,126 comments Seattle, WA David Losh's website Premium

    148   8:11am Wed 19 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   jvolstad says My landlady is trying to get a $350 a month increase That is a very real problem, that landlords think they are golden. Is there apartment building going on in your area?

32. Mobi Follow Befriend 1 threads 241 comments

    149   8:21am Wed 19 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   robertoaribas says ercc: I would be more worried in the bay area, particularly any price point north of say $500K. In the IWOG price/rent area, it seems that rents are solid and increasing, demand is strong, and inventory is down. Not just IWOG, but everybody else trying to buy seems to verify this.. to IGNORE current price trends and supply/demand, because "someday it could be different" is just silliness. kinda agree with Roberto. Since supply is low, why not hold out for another year and see what happens? The wild card is a quick melt down like in 2008 but I do not see a reason for that within our boarder. Europe potentially can ignite a global collapse like the one in 2008 so here you go.

33. David Losh Follow Befriend (2) 8 threads 1,126 comments Seattle, WA David Losh's website Premium

    150   8:30am Wed 19 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Mobi says Since supply is low I'd just like to say that every property on earth is for sale for the right price, terms, and conditions.

34. mell Follow Befriend (5) 54 threads 1,304 comments Premium

    151   9:16am Wed 19 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   David Losh says jvolstad says My landlady is trying to get a $350 a month increase That is a very real problem, that landlords think they are golden. Is there apartment building going on in your area? People looking in the bay area should look in the San Francisco (outer) sunset district. It's a bit far from the inner city (but hey, cycling is good for ya), very close to the ocean, no cars, hardly any crime, quiet, good air, the houses are a bit dated on average but you can get a $1700 sqft 2 1/2 bedroom for $2300 here. No rent increases.

35. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,785 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    152   11:22am Wed 19 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   E-man says Monkey, I just rented a 3/2 townhouse in San Jose for $2,450/month to a couple making over $215k combined. It was rented on the first day of open house. I had 4 inquiries, which is low compared to the Summer no doubt. wow, I've never had a rental market like that to work with... I've had to sweat it out, one call at a time...

36. Mobi Follow Befriend 1 threads 241 comments

    153   11:48am Wed 19 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   David Losh says Mobi says Since supply is low I'd just like to say that every property on earth is for sale for the right price, terms, and conditions. Certainly, mines are for sale if you are willing to offer me the right prices. My guess is the supply will come back as long as prices keep increasing. You just have to guess where is the rolling-over point. I suppose you can make up a metric like Roberto to predit that.

37. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,785 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    154   9:22pm Wed 19 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Mobi says My guess is the supply will come back as long as prices keep increasing. That is not a guess, that is a fundamental law of economics. I'd sell every investment property I have at the right price! Mobi says I suppose you can make up a metric like Roberto to predit that. or, you can just use my metric! It worked for selling in 2004-5, it worked for buying over the past two years... http://robertoaribas.wordpress.com/2012/09/03/when-to-sell-a-home-especially-in-a-bubble/

38. E-man Follow Befriend (31) 34 threads 2,545 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    155   11:54pm Wed 19 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   robertoaribas says E-man says Monkey, I just rented a 3/2 townhouse in San Jose for $2,450/month to a couple making over $215k combined. It was rented on the first day of open house. I had 4 inquiries, which is low compared to the Summer no doubt. wow, I've never had a rental market like that to work with... I've had to sweat it out, one call at a time... I feel like some of the tenants are professional renters. Also, we say it in our ad to show up with their paystubs, credit report, and checkbook if they're serious. In April, we had a tenant moved out. We jacked up the rent $200 and put it on Craigslist at 8:00PM. We received 9 phone calls and 3 emails inquiries within an hour. We had to removed our phone number. Rented it to an Apple engineer on the 1st day. We also acquired another property in April. Fixed it up and rented to a VMware employee on May 1st. We got this tenant from the above open house. Didn't even have to advertise. We picked up another property in May. Fixed it up. Raised the rent $400. We were just testing the market. 8 parties came through. 4 wanted it. Rented it on the 1st day to a CPA working for one of the big 4 accounting firms. The last one was bought in November and also rented on the 1st day to a government employee. All in all, we're pretty lucky. I think PK did a great job on the ads. We don't intend to raise rent on anyone on the 1st year. :)

39. Mobi Follow Befriend 1 threads 241 comments

    156   8:48am Thu 20 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   robertoaribas says or, you can just use my metric! It worked for selling in 2004-5, it worked for buying over the past two years... http://robertoaribas.wordpress.com/2012/09/03/when-to-sell-a-home-especially-in-a-bubble/ But like I said in another post, Europe is a wild card here. Housing was the root cause of the 2008 financial melt down. So, for people keeping a close eye on the housing market like Roberto, it is not too hard to sell the houses before the sharp down turn. However, housing is not the only thing that can cause a financial collapse. If one of the stressed countries defaults on their government debt, potentially it would create turmoils in the banking sector and propagating here. But I suppose it is not too hard to see the writing on the wall.

40. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 2,004 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    157   8:59am Thu 20 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   SFace says gregpfielding says It's true. Andrew's prediction (which I shared), didn't come to pass. The market is far from fundamentals. It's your prediction as you signed off on it. Sorry, but saying record inventory when the opposite happened is an epic failure. Blaming the fundamental just demonstate your incompentence as it should be accounted for. Greg: You should sell your house now before inventory floods the market Seller: ok Seller 3 months later: What happended to the flood of inventory you talked about? I sold too early. Greg: Market is not following fundamentals Seller: WTF does that mean? Not following fundamentals, seriously? Hey, Greg got his take. From his perspective it was a slam dunk. Cha-Ching

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