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Is the 2012 dead cat bounce fading like the days of summer?

By jelly   Follow   Sun, 12 Aug 2012, 1:00am   8,295 views   108 comments
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Intrigued by a comment made by dunnross yesterday:

Goran_K says

That tells me that the Phoenix bull trap is starting to fade, but I suppose we'll see what happens to prices more concretely this winter.

dunnross says

The fact that this was a bull trap and it is now over is more than obvious in places like Palo Alto, where asking prices are already down more than 20% since this summer.

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1. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,446 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   69   11:40am Fri 17 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (2)   Protected   Goran_K says It's entertaining seeing iwog's arguments on rent vs buy being thoroughly disproven, then seeing him backpedal, and change his platform multiple times in the face of sound logic and even sounder basic arithmetic. I'm the only one in this thread who as used any arithmetic. Apparently you and the other crashers are afraid to do an analysis of any kind.

2. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 228 threads 2,748 comments

   70   11:43am Fri 17 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   iwog says I'm the only one in this thread who as used any arithmetic. Apparently you and the other crashers are afraid to do an analysis of any kind. Yea, we established how well your arithmetic skills are on the other thread!!

3. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,446 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   71   11:55am Fri 17 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (2)   Protected   bmwman91 says iwog is easily this board's most successful troll. He/She is actually correct sometimes and does raise valid points in some discussions, but the method of presentation of just about all of those points is definitely trollicious. I get along great with people who are sincere and honest regardless of which position they take. There are plenty of RE bears and conservatives on my friends list. I clash horribly with people who are dishonest and are only here to argue.

4. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,517 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

   72   12:05pm Fri 17 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   iwog says I'm the only one in this thread who as used any arithmetic. Apparently you and the other crashers are afraid to do an analysis of any kind. Apologies, I'm not well versed on your speciality, the "Google Street View" methodology.

5. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,446 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   73   12:17pm Fri 17 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)   Protected   Goran_K says Apologies, I'm not well versed on your speciality, the "Google Street View" methodology. That's exactly what I'm talking about. You're not honest although sometimes you go to great lengths to appear reasonable. My point is a legitimate one and you can't refute it. (even when you brought it up) So instead you just troll with the last thread you got dog-piled on.

6. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,517 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

   74   12:42pm Fri 17 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   In the last thread, I was arguing against you, Roberto, and Randy H, 3 people who have vested interest in pretending that the real estate market isn't in any trouble, I wouldn't call that a dog pile, more like a troll pile. Also you're the one who immediately gets 2 to 3 dislikes on almost every comment you post. I think it's obvious what people think of your "analysis" on the forum. It's very trollish. For instance, WhyPee pointed out that you misinterpreted the graph (both sale and list prices were falling), and you totally blew him off because he sunk your point about a Bay Area "boom". You tactic is to basically disregard data that doesn't support your agenda, and only consider data that supports your point, even if weakly so. Fortunately the majority of the forum has caught on.

7. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,759 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

   75   1:01pm Fri 17 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Goran_K says In the last thread, I was arguing against you, Roberto, and Randy H, 3 people who have vested interest in pretending that the real estate market isn't in any trouble, No pretending going on on my part, Phoenix prices are rising and rising fast... you ignore all data that doesn't fit your narrative, that's all. Goran_K says Also you're the one who immediately gets 2 to 3 dislikes on almost every comment you post. How stupid do you have to be to even write that? I can log in on all 5 computers in my house, and give you five dislikes instantly, or use 28 computers in the labs I teach in, if I thought that was a worthwhile thing to do... grow up!

8. 1sfrenter Follow Befriend (1) 11 threads 224 comments San Francisco, CA

   76   1:10pm Fri 17 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   coriacci1 says I love my 3bd, 1850 ft, double parlor, top floor, rent controlled flat, overlooking Dolores Park in San Francisco, at $1,500 a month! So jealous. If I had a nice rent-controlled place I wouldn't even consider buying. But with rent at $2800 month and no rent control (single family home) and kids and dogs, forget about it. We're either buying in the Excelsior or bust.

9. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,446 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   77   1:12pm Fri 17 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Goran_K says For instance, WhyPee pointed out that you misinterpreted the graph (both sale and list prices were falling), and you totally blew him off because he sunk your point about a Bay Area "boom". You tactic is to basically disregard data that doesn't support your agenda, and only consider data that supports your point, even if weakly so. Fortunately the majority of the forum has caught on. No, this is just crap however it does allow me to make a simple point about the above graph of Palo Alto. The sold line shows approximately 38 weeks of rising prices starting in the 3rd quarter 2011. There are several short duration dips which have always resolved into even higher prices afterwards. There are exactly TWO data points indicating lower prices on the very end of the graph. Therefore what we have is 38 weeks of steadily increasing prices and two weeks at the very end showing a small decline. The reason I "blew him off" is because it's a stupid and pointless argument. Iwog: Prices are rising because they have been going up for 9 months. WhyPee: Nuh uh......prices are falling because there's two weeks of down data on the very end! Technically we're both right, however 38 weeks of up data is significant while 2 weeks of down data might just be noise. Time will tell but it's not worth going back and forth because it's an apples and oranges argument. I saw that immediately and stopped. You on the other hand, ever interested in being a troll, decided to dredge it up again.

10. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,517 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    78   1:15pm Fri 17 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   iwog says You on the other hand, ever interested in being a troll, decided to dredge it up again. I'm just getting you to at least acknowledge his post, since you like to ignore data. See that wasn't so hard? Now if you could only be honest in interpreting that data. Claiming that prices rose 38 weeks straight is simply dishonest.

11. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,446 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    79   1:17pm Fri 17 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Goran_K says Also you're the one who immediately gets 2 to 3 dislikes on almost every comment you post. I think it's obvious what people think of your "analysis" on the forum. It's very trollish. I talked about this before but again you don't give a shit and just like keeping me the topic of conversation. (one definition of troll, constantly getting personal and ignoring topics) I got two dislikes for this comment which is nothing more than answering a question. Do you think the two dislikes were because I was being trollish and giving faulty analysis, or are there simply two assholes in the thread who dislike everything I post because they are having a year long temper tantrum? iwog says swebb says Are you saying that you can buy a house for $235k and rent it for $2k/month right now? If so, that's an incredibly good investment by my reckoning. Possibly. The last house I bought closed in March. I paid $150,000, put $50,000 in repairs and upgrades into it, and it now rents for $1700. I doubt I could do as well if I went shopping today, however I could probably spend $300,000 and get $2000 in rents and still do better than renting. Pretty obvious isn't it. I also got 4 dislikes on my satellite photograph of the North Pole. OH THE HORROR!!!!!

12. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,517 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    80   1:20pm Fri 17 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   robertoaribas says No pretending going on on my part, Phoenix prices are rising and rising fast... you ignore all data that doesn't fit your narrative, that's all. According to Redfin data, inventory is rising (as can be expected in a state with as much underwater owners as Arizona), and month-over-month prices are down. As I pointed out before, I think Phoenix has a lot in common with Vegas. Crash -> Speculation -> Trend downward towards bottom. I think we may be exiting the speculation stage at the moment with prices flattening. But hey, when you're raking in $6,000 a month and thinking of retiring to an island in the Pacific, why stop the gravy train of positivity, right?

13. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,517 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    81   1:21pm Fri 17 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   iwog says Do you think the two dislikes were because I was being trollish and giving faulty analysis, or are there simply two assholes in the thread who dislike everything I post because they are having a year long temper tantrum? You have to ask yourself, why would those people dislike you and no one else? Again, you're the common denominator here.

14. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,446 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    82   1:23pm Fri 17 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Goran_K says Now if you could only be honest in interpreting that data. Claiming that prices rose 38 weeks straight is simply dishonest. No, it's very honest. Claiming that a couple of temporary dips in a 38 week trendline disqualifies my characterization is dishonest. The funny thing is that I clarified and clarified again. I brought up the dips in the trendline. I acknowledged the little dip at the end of the graph. Here's what you and your little friends did: "It's not going up, it's going down!" "You're lying, it's obviously going down." "nope, down down down." A bunch of kids who just want to be heard. You don't care about the truth. You don't care that prices in Palo Alto today average $150 per sq. ft. higher than in October 2011. (fact taken directly from the graph) You just want everything to be intentionally stupid so you can claim "Yeah it's going down!!!!" Good luck with that.

15. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,446 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    83   1:24pm Fri 17 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Goran_K says You have to ask yourself, why would those people dislike you and no one else? Again, you're the common denominator here. Sure thing skippy. I'll pay close attention to a pair of morons who dislike photographs of the North Pole and ignore 50 friend requests. You're a genius. LOL

16. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,517 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    84   1:26pm Fri 17 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   iwog says Here's what you and your little friends did: "It's not going up, it's going down!" "You're lying, it's obviously going down." "nope, down down down." I wasn't part of the original debate, but as an outsider to the debate between you and WhyPee, I can see why he would think you were purposefully being misleading. Judging by the responses to your post in this thread, I think most people would agree.

17. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,446 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    85   1:31pm Fri 17 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Goran_K says I wasn't part of the original debate, but as an outsider to the debate between you and WhyPee, I can see why he would think you were purposefully being misleading. Judging by the responses to your post in this thread, I think most people would agree. I just proved otherwise. I'm the only one who broke the chart down and detailed every little piece. Do you know what's stupid and childish and dishonest? Do you know what is intentionally misleading? Posting a chart with a 38-week increasing prices trendline and repeatedly insisting "Prices are going down!!!!" because of two data points on the very end.

18. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 1,996 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    86   1:38pm Fri 17 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   iwog says RentingForHalfTheCost says We just concluded that I save 29K a year by renting. We concluded no such thing. You told me to remove the appreciation % from Patrick's calculator so I did. It reduced the difference by $29k. So now you're only behind $130k. Go back and check it if you don't believe me. Why the hell would you conclude you saved ANYTHING by renting???? Because I do. I can rent a pile of wood and nails, or rent money from a mortage company to use a pile of wood and nails. Both have costs and right now the first costs much less for me. Hence my savings obeys the very simply math formula done on the exact same house. There are many equivalent homes in my area for sale now for 1.1-1.3m. Ownership costs - renting costs = 29K/yr for me. YMMV. Crap the calculator gives me a savings of 280K over 7 years! Why do you lie?

19. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,446 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    87   1:41pm Fri 17 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   RentingForHalfTheCost says Ownership costs - renting costs = 29K/yr for me. YMMV. Crap the calculator gives me a savings of 280K over 7 years! Why do you lie? ROFLOL.........you talk about the analysis I ran and posted. You even reposted the fucking thing. Then when I call you on your bullshit, you accuse me of lying based on a screen shot no one has ever seen before and involves a $1,200,000 house when we were talking about a $230,000 house originally. Unbelievable! What is wrong with you people?

20. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,759 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    88   1:42pm Fri 17 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Goran_K says According to Redfin data, redfin and zillow data are all crap... People ask me all the time, "Hey find out about this home I found for $x on Redfin or zillow...." I pull it up on the mls, NOPE under contract for five months, was only active for 3 days, and had multiple offers per the private realtor remarks... So, NO, it isn't available, but those two stupid sites are always wrong... I comp multiple markets, and am watching the prices rise at startling speed, but some dipstick like goran would rather call everyone a liar...

21. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

    89   1:54pm Fri 17 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Goran_K says In the last thread, I was arguing against you, Roberto, and Randy H, 3 people who have vested interest in pretending that the real estate market isn't in any trouble, I wouldn't call that a dog pile, more like a troll pile. Also you're the one who immediately gets 2 to 3 dislikes on almost every comment you post. I think it's obvious what people think of your "analysis" on the forum. It's very trollish. For instance, WhyPee pointed out that you misinterpreted the graph (both sale and list prices were falling), and you totally blew him off because he sunk your point about a Bay Area "boom". You tactic is to basically disregard data that doesn't support your agenda, and only consider data that supports your point, even if weakly so. Fortunately the majority of the forum has caught on. You were just wrong in that thread. It was as simple as that, but you just couldn't admit it.

22. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,517 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    90   3:30pm Fri 17 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   robertoaribas says redfin and zillow data are all crap.. Redfin is just a time delayed mirror for the MLS. You do know that right?

23. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,759 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    91   5:32pm Fri 17 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Goran_K says Redfin is just a time delayed mirror for the MLS. You do know that right? sure thing. If I want to know what prices were doing, before electricity was invented, I will look at redfin or zillow. If I want to know what is happening today, I'll look on the mls.

24. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,517 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    92   6:19pm Fri 17 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   robertoaribas says sure thing. If I want to know what prices were doing, before electricity was invented, I will look at redfin or zillow. If I want to know what is happening today, I'll look on the mls. That's an exaggeration (it's actually only about 4-6 hours), but I give you a few points for humor unlike your buddy in arms iwog who is a stick in the mud.

25. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    93   6:55pm Fri 17 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   robertoaribas says redfin and zillow data are all crap. Is that the same crap you used last month, when you were foaming at your mouth trying to prove to us that prices were going up in phoenix? Or is this the kind of crap which doesn't stink in your and our neck of the woods?

26. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,759 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    94   7:53pm Fri 17 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   dunnross says robertoaribas says redfin and zillow data are all crap. Is that the same crap you used last month, when you were foaming at your mouth trying to prove to us that prices were going up in phoenix? Or is this the kind of crap which doesn't stink in your and our neck of the woods? no dips**t I used MLS data... WhyPee says And all the while, price/square foot is falling in Phoenix.... like everywhere else in the country. another stupid person on here? do you EVER use data, or do you always make things up? http://www.azcentral.com/community/scottsdale/articles/20120813scottsdale-area-housing-prices-up.html or look up case-shiller data...

27. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

    95   8:23pm Fri 17 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   WhyPee says dunnross says robertoaribas says redfin and zillow data are all crap. Is that the same crap you used last month, when you were foaming at your mouth trying to prove to us that prices were going up in phoenix? Or is this the kind of crap which doesn't stink in your and our neck of the woods? And all the while, price/square foot is falling in Phoenix.... like everywhere else in the country. Why buy now when you can buy for 95% less... presumably. Or something.

28. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,759 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    96   9:57pm Fri 17 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Bigsby says Why buy now when you can buy for 95% less... presumably. Or something. Personally, I'm waiting till prices fall 150% more!

29. B.A.C.A.H. Follow Befriend (6) 5 threads 2,359 comments

    97   10:04pm Fri 17 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   robertoaribas says dips**t robertoaribas says another stupid person Sounds real professional all right, Doctor Professor!

30. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 1,996 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    98   10:10pm Fri 17 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   iwog says RentingForHalfTheCost says Ownership costs - renting costs = 29K/yr for me. YMMV. Crap the calculator gives me a savings of 280K over 7 years! Why do you lie? ROFLOL.........you talk about the analysis I ran and posted. You even reposted the fucking thing. Then when I call you on your bullshit, you accuse me of lying based on a screen shot no one has ever seen before and involves a $1,200,000 house when we were talking about a $230,000 house originally. Unbelievable! What is wrong with you people? Here is a trip back in time. ------ RentingForHalfTheCost says: Make no mistake. If you buy in the BA instead of renting you are either betting that appreciation is going to happen, or you are okay with taking it on the chin financially. And so it was said. Amen To which Iwog said: Go on believing that if you want but you're dead wrong. ------ Sorry you mix up threads Iwog. I have always been sticking to my original point. Buying in the BA (the real BA, not Concord) is more expensive and the only way you break even or make money is appreciation of the aging wood and nails. Good luck with that.

31. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 1,996 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    99   10:15pm Fri 17 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   robertoaribas says Bigsby says Why buy now when you can buy for 95% less... presumably. Or something. Personally, I'm waiting till prices fall 150% more! You can in fact lose 150% of your initial investment. I know people who have. Real estate can bite hard when it turns on you. Not saying it has or will for you, but it has for many in the BA.

32. B.A.C.A.H. Follow Befriend (6) 5 threads 2,359 comments

    100   10:19pm Fri 17 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   RentingForHalfTheCost says the real BA, not Concord You can BART to SF, so it's real.

33. FortWayne Follow Befriend (13) 102 threads 3,759 comments

    101   11:25pm Fri 17 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Without fundamental recovery all this marketing by RE is just gimmicks. I expect long slow further declines...money isn't there simply. Pretend can only last so long before ultimate liquidation.

34. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 1,996 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    102   2:22pm Sun 19 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   B.A.C.A.H. says RentingForHalfTheCost says the real BA, not Concord You can BART to SF, so it's real. real shitty, sure. ;)

35. xenogear3 Follow Befriend 10 threads 419 comments

    103   2:38pm Sun 19 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   robertoaribas, How is the weather? 110 degrees 9 days in a row. I wonder if people buy house during that time.

36. lostand confused Follow Befriend (9) 160 threads 1,528 comments Premium

    104   2:57pm Sun 19 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   FortWayne says Without fundamental recovery all this marketing by RE is just gimmicks. I expect long slow further declines...money isn't there simply. Pretend can only last so long before ultimate liquidation. Freedom 1789-2012 Unless of course we end up like Zimbabwe or early last century Germany. The every shack will be worth trillions of dollars.

37. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    105   4:00pm Sun 19 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   lostand confused says Unless of course we end up like Zimbabwe or early last century Germany. The every shack will be worth trillions of dollars. We will definitely not wind up like Zimbabwe any time soon. We will most likely wind up like Japan of the last 20 years. Fed has only printed 2.5T so far. They need to print another 10T, at least, just to get all the banks out of hock. Only then, we can talk about any kind of inflation. Basically, the private debt needs to go back to 0, and it's nowhere even close, now. So, all you housing bulls out there - you can dream and salivate all you want at the prospect of housing market improving, but it ain't gonna happen.

38. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,759 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    106   4:54pm Sun 19 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   xenogear3 says robertoaribas, How is the weather? 110 degrees 9 days in a row. I wonder if people buy house during that time. Rained, and cooled down the last 3 days... barely 100 today. I rode my bicycle to the gym! 3475 sold so far this month, so YEAH, people buy even if it is hot as hell...

39. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,606 comments

    107   5:09pm Sun 19 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   RentingForHalfTheCost says the only way you break even or make money is appreciation of the aging wood and nails. Good luck with that. The wood and nails don't appreciate. It's the land underneath them...

40. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,606 comments

    108   6:07pm Sun 19 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   WhyPee says Considering "land" can be picked up in all 48 contiguous states for under $800/acre, you're still deluded. Sure--just not the land I'd want to live on.

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