Patrick.net

Bullish or BS?

By HEY YOU   Follow   Sat, 14 Jul 2012, 9:04am   3,846 views   59 comments
Watch (0)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2012/07/what-the-bulls-believe.html

« First     « Previous     Viewing Comments 20-59 of 59     Last »     See most liked comments

1. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

   20   11:58pm Sat 14 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   clambo says There will be a flight to USA debt for safety reasons 3 California cities are already bankrupt. The state will follow, soon. The federal government, will print itself to oblivion.

2. clambo Follow Befriend (5) 1,070 comments Santa Cruz, CA

   21   12:05am Sun 15 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   The Federal govt. is borrowing and sending the US dollar to oblivion. I have a different perspective. I lived in Mexico when they had a severe economic crisis, imagine waking up one morning and your bank account with 1 million bucks in pesos is now worth 1/2 million bucks in pesos. Despite all the crises, devaluations, tremendous inflation, etc. the growth of the population and overall economy created stock wealth. The wealthiest guy on earth is Carlos Slim for his Telmex shares. He got a super deal buying it from the Govt. so maybe not a fair example. But other Mexican stocks also shot up, e.g. Cemex. There is surely much reason for doom and gloom. The problem is that the average consumer doesn't give a shit, he/she wants to buy the crap and they're gonna do it. Governments also want to spend and they're gonna do it. The person who will be sacrificed at the altar is someone who has cash in the bank. Stocks are actually a defensive buy in my opinion these days.

3. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,653 comments

   22   6:31am Sun 15 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Call it Crazy says I would try and explain it to you, but I don't believe you have the mental capability to understand... which is proven by your insightful responses to posts. lol--nice cop out.

4. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 229 threads 2,790 comments

   23   7:02am Sun 15 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   dunnross says Well, the iPads and iPhones could have been very effective when thrown against a cannibal, but apple keeps making them smaller and lighter. When they come out with the new mini-pad, will it have dual uses???

5. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 229 threads 2,790 comments

   24   7:02am Sun 15 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   tatupu70 says Call it Crazy says I would try and explain it to you, but I don't believe you have the mental capability to understand... which is proven by your insightful responses to posts. lol--nice cop out. There you go, proves my point!

6. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

   25   7:10am Sun 15 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Call it Crazy says When they come out with the new mini-pad, will it have dual uses??? Triple. Here is another one:

7. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 229 threads 2,790 comments

   26   7:13am Sun 15 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   dunnross says dunnross says o you know of any individual that was forced to sign mortgage papers almost against their own will, or are you A$$uming? Well, would you deny that the guberment's meddling in the rental market, forcing rents up, is driving people to sign mortgage papers? I don't see how the gov't. can meddle in the rental market, most of it is just local supply and demand and what the landlord needs to cover his monthly nut. Also, no one is "forced" to sign a mortgage by the gov't. The gov't. just has made it real easy for the "sheep" to take out a 3.5% FHA mortgage, only to get "sheared" later when they go underwater. It becomes taking personal responsibility for what contract you sign and having the ability to use a calculator, which are both lacking from today's "sheep"!!! You can't blame the gov't. for that.....

8. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,653 comments

   27   7:17am Sun 15 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Call it Crazy says It becomes taking personal responsibility for what contract you sign and having the ability to use a calculator, which are both lacking from today's "sheep"!!! You can't blame the gov't. for that..... So, people who waited to buy until after the housing bubble popped, until prices reached a level below rental parity, and then bought are sheep? Really? Or is this another one of those areas that "I don't have the mental capacity to understand"? Funny how you can't ever post the explanation. I'm sure you have one though...lol.

9. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 229 threads 2,790 comments

   28   7:28am Sun 15 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   tatupu70 says Or is this another one of those areas that "I don't have the mental capacity to understand"? Yep

10. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,653 comments

    29   7:49am Sun 15 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Call it Crazy says tatupu70 says Or is this another one of those areas that "I don't have the mental capacity to understand"? Yep Got it. Another well supported and well thought out post from Crazy.

11. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    30   8:48am Sun 15 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Call it Crazy says I don't see how the gov't. can meddle in the rental market, most of it is just local supply and demand and what the landlord needs to cover his monthly nut. Again, when you are talking about supply and demand, you are assuming that this is a free market. In reality, this is not a free market at all, but a market heavily rigged and manipulated by the banksters and the central planners. These entities manipulate the markets, by rigging the mortgage rates and credit available to the landlords, which, ultimately affects the rental rates.

12. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,523 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    31   10:31am Sun 15 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Housing prices drop for 2 years straight, and bulls claim "the market is flat." Housing prices rise for 3 months, and the same people claim "recovery." If that's not bull euphoria prepping for a bull trap, I'm not sure what is.

13. mell Follow Befriend (5) 57 threads 1,333 comments Premium

    32   10:58am Sun 15 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   This is for the SF bay area: There is some significant demand for the lower end rental market as people cannot afford to buy or decide not to do so and because the Fed has made it very easy for the high end renters to jack up the rents and wait for someone rich (and careless) enough to pay that much by keeping the interest rates super depressed. If you can roll over your debt almost indefinitely for less interest than inflation, you somewhat have the luxury to charge whatever you want. This has nothing to do with a recovery, as soon as interest rates will recover to normal - and eventually they will - these distortions will correct. Meanwhile funding for companies that haven't been profitable for a while is drying up rapidly again, look for layoffs and a generally weak job market. There will be no end to the housing inventory glut and a steady supply of foreclosures. Also the recent municipal bankruptcies seem to indicate more downturn than recovery and more will follow. You don't have to kill yourself, just be careful with regarding "housing" as an investment - I cannot see any reason for prices to go up.

14. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 229 threads 2,790 comments

    33   12:40pm Sun 15 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   dunnross says These entities manipulate the markets, by rigging the mortgage rates and credit available to the landlords, which, ultimately affects the rental rates. Are we talking about SFH's or multi-unit apartment units? Aren't the majority of rentals single family units? How are landlords of these units getting "rigged mortgages" that are different than the standard home owner?

15. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 229 threads 2,790 comments

    34   12:41pm Sun 15 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   tatupu70 says Call it Crazy says tatupu70 says Or is this another one of those areas that "I don't have the mental capacity to understand"? Yep Got it. Another well supported and well thought out post from Crazy. I'm trying to learn from you on how to make useless posts.... but it's real tough.

16. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 229 threads 2,790 comments

    35   12:43pm Sun 15 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Goran_K says Housing prices drop for 2 years straight, and bulls claim "the market is flat." Housing prices rise for 3 months, and the same people claim "recovery." If that's not bull euphoria prepping for a bull trap, I'm not sure what is. Pretty much spot on but it also seems that they have shortened the time line to a 1 month rise and they claim "recovery".

17. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,653 comments

    36   2:37pm Sun 15 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Call it Crazy says I'm trying to learn from you on how to make useless posts.... but it's real tough. At least you're trying to learn. It's a start.

18. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    37   6:12pm Sun 15 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Call it Crazy says Are we talking about SFH's or multi-unit apartment units? Aren't the majority of rentals single family units? How are landlords of these units getting "rigged mortgages" that are different than the standard home owner? Landlors are getting the same mortgages as everyone else. It's just that the interest rates, themselves are "artificially" low, which makes it easier for landlords to charge more (see mell's response, above).

19. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 229 threads 2,790 comments

    38   8:42pm Sun 15 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   dunnross says Landlors are getting the same mortgages as everyone else. It's just that the interest rates, themselves are "artificially" low, which makes it easier for landlords to charge more (see mell's response, above). Wouldn't those same low rates make it more affordable for people to buy and keep their own mortgage payments low? What percentage of SFH are bought by private home owners vs. investors/landlords?

20. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,653 comments

    39   4:28am Mon 16 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   dunnross says Landlors are getting the same mortgages as everyone else. It's just that the interest rates, themselves are "artificially" low, which makes it easier for landlords to charge more (see mell's response, above). How exactly do low interest rates allow landlords to charge more? Mells repsonse made even less sense than yours. Rent is driven by supply and demand. And, if anything, low interest rates will push more people to buy rather than rent so you'll have to lower rents (as Crazy says).

21. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    40   5:04am Mon 16 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   tatupu70 says Mells repsonse made even less sense than yours. Rent is driven by supply and demand. Mell's response made a lot of sense. Looking at rental listings on craig's list, and I am seeing landlords asking crazy rents for absolutely ordinary looking houses: http://sfbay.craigslist.org/sby/apa/3116823494.html $6000 for a 2 car garage??? http://sfbay.craigslist.org/sby/apa/3135055874.html $7000 for a row house??? http://sfbay.craigslist.org/sby/apa/3138405340.html $6300 for 2800sq ft??? Who can afford to rent these places? Some of these houses have been on the market forever. It's pretty obvious that these landlords are waiting for someone rich and stupid to show up.

22. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,653 comments

    41   5:11am Mon 16 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   dunnross says Who can afford to rent these places? Some of these houses have been on the market forever. It's pretty obvious that these landlords are waiting for someone rich and stupid to show up. Sure. How does that have anything to do with low interest rates? Wouldn't a rich person be more likely to buy with such low rates?

23. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    42   5:27am Mon 16 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   tatupu70 says How does that have anything to do with low interest rates? Low interest rates allow the landlord to sit on the property for a long time, since their mortgage is low. A lot of rich people rent because renting provides the mobility which buying doesn't and also frees up capital for other investments.

24. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,653 comments

    43   5:34am Mon 16 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   dunnross says Low interest rates allow the landlord to sit on the property for a long time, since their mortgage is low. Landlords will maxmize income by pricing their rental so it is occupied. It will be impossible for the landlord to make up for a few months vacant by charging higher rents. dunnross says A lot of rich people rent because renting provides the mobility which buying doesn't and also frees up capital for other investments Maybe that is true, but rich people don't get rich by paying over market rents.

25. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 229 threads 2,790 comments

    44   7:14am Mon 16 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   tatupu70 says Rent is driven by supply and demand. And, if anything, low interest rates will push more people to buy rather than rent so you'll have to lower rents (as Crazy says). Guess what Tat... we agree on something....WoW!!!! Personal observation, I see rents in my area climbing (in NJ), I think mainly because of limited inventory. I find out next month what my landlord's plans are for the next year. I am expecting him to bump up the rent. Looking around, similar houses have increased in rent too. With the lower interest rates, I'm actually considering buying again. Even though I'm OK with renting, the lower rates makes it very tempting to jump back into the fire as an owner... How f*cked up is that!!!

26. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,653 comments

    45   7:22am Mon 16 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Call it Crazy says With the lower interest rates, I'm actually considering buying again. Even though I'm OK with renting, the lower rates makes it very tempting to jump back into the fire as an owner... Twice in one day--I saw the same thing when I was out there. That's what pushed me to look to buy because it was significantly cheaper than renting where I was looking. You have the extra maintenance costs but the savings from principal payback (at these rates, it's actually significant) and tax savings. Prices may continue to go down--but with rents so high, I think the downside is somewhat limited. Obviously if rents start falling, then my analysis is completely moot.

27. mell Follow Befriend (5) 57 threads 1,333 comments Premium

    46   7:31am Mon 16 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   The low interest rates do not benefit everyone equally. If you already have a lot of money and collateral you can borrow more, most ordinary people at this point do not qualify for big loans to buy a house and you don't get loans to pay your rent - except for using your credit card at horrible rates maybe ;) I agree on an increased demand for rent, but it comes solely from the combo of people not being able to afford to buy a house and (usually wealthy) landlords and corporations not needing full tenancy due to the depressed interest rates. Sure you could try and take advantage of this if you have enough income/collateral and buy a house to rent out, but IMO it is a huge risk as the people who are now paying those jacked up rents are living paycheck to paycheck right now.

28. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 229 threads 2,790 comments

    47   7:40am Mon 16 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   tatupu70 says That's what pushed me to look to buy because it was significantly cheaper than renting where I was looking. That's what I'm seeing at these current interest rates. tatupu70 says You have the extra maintenance costs but the savings from principal payback (at these rates, it's actually significant) and tax savings. That's the part that scares me... I have to try and keep the old lady from starting new projects... that's the biggest challenge!! My renovation costs could easily exceed the tax advantage... tatupu70 says Prices may continue to go down--but with rents so high, I think the downside is somewhat limited. Prices here will definitely keep falling, but based on what I'm looking at, my goal after purchase is still to be 20% below comparable comps, which will leave a little buffer when the prices still drop. tatupu70 says Obviously if rents start falling, then my analysis is completely moot. Don't think that will happen. NJ is ramping up the push to clear the squaters/foreclosures so I believe the demand for rentals is going to increase.

29. FortWayne Follow Befriend (13) 103 threads 3,768 comments

    48   8:10am Mon 16 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   tatupu70 says dunnross says What's still keeping this market together are super low interest rates, and low DP FHA loans, not to mention corruption and deceptions Is that what's making rents rise too? You shouldn't assume they are rising. In our area they've been falling every year so far, and so have the housing prices. Now I don't know about your area, might be different.

30. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,653 comments

    49   8:14am Mon 16 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   FortWayne says You shouldn't assume they are rising. In our area they've been falling every year so far, and so have the housing prices. I'm speaking in general. Obviously, it's not true for every area.

31. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 229 threads 2,790 comments

    50   8:20am Mon 16 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   tatupu70 says Obviously if rents start falling, then my analysis is completely moot. The other reason I don't see rents falling here is because the majority of the rentals available are people who are underwater and have tried but can't sell, so they figure they will rent it out in hopes that prices might come back up. (wishful thinking!!)

32. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,836 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    51   12:20am Tue 17 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Call it Crazy says The other reason I don't see rents falling here is because the majority of the rentals available are people who are underwater and have tried but can't sell, so they figure they will rent it out in hopes that prices might come back up. (wishful thinking!!) rent prices are set by supply and demand of rentals. PERIOD. whether or not the landlord has a huge mortgage has nothing to do with the price he/she can charge. You've been on this board forever, you'd think you 'd know what a clever high school student of economics knows by now...

33. New Renter Follow Befriend (3) 13 threads 2,227 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    52   8:12am Tue 17 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   robertoaribas says rent prices are set by supply and demand of rentals. PERIOD. whether or not the landlord has a huge mortgage has nothing to do with the price he/she can charge. You've been on this board forever, you'd think you 'd know what a clever high school student of economics knows by now... It does beg the question though, where is the rent money coming from? So many people have been living paycheck to paycheck for decades already, or worse on HELOC money. The unemployment rate is still high. What are renters doing now to squeeze out more rent that they were not doing before?

34. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 229 threads 2,790 comments

    53   8:26am Tue 17 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   robertoaribas says rent prices are set by supply and demand of rentals. PERIOD. whether or not the landlord has a huge mortgage has nothing to do with the price he/she can charge. You've been on this board forever, you'd think you 'd know what a clever high school student of economics knows by now... Reading is fundamental.... try and keep up with your middle school education.... I already said previously that rent prices are normally supply and demand, duhhhhhh.... What I posted is what I see HERE (this isn't Phoenix) is that home owners are trying a last ditch effort to save their house by renting it and trying to cover their existing mortgage payment. They aren't trying to match the "supply and demand" piece of the equation.. So, the monthly rental payments are high because of their high mortgages, get it!! I'll try and write at a 3rd grade level for you next time...

35. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

    54   8:52am Tue 17 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Yikes, how can speculation on future price movements turn into personal attacks? Bulls, place your bets. Bears, place your bets. Only time will tell who is correct. The future is unknown.

36. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,523 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    55   9:39am Tue 17 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   wthrfrk80 says Yikes, how can speculation on future price movements turn into personal attacks? Something I never understood. "You're a moron." "You are a high school student!" "I'm calling you out on your perma-bear BS!" ... and nothing was ever accomplished.

37. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,836 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    56   9:48am Tue 17 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Call it Crazy says So, the monthly rental payments are high because of their high mortgages, get it!! "Home for rent, $4000 a month. Yes, you can rent the same home across the street for $3000, but I have a high mortgage to pay, hence the rent I am asking. Thanks in advance!" You can insult me all you want, but the fact remains, the person renting the home simply doesn't care what/why the landlord sets a price. They compare it to other available rentals, and make their decision. Call it Crazy says Reading is fundamental.... try and keep up with your middle school education.... Actually, UC Berkeley MS in Mathematics, with applications in economics... Feel free to embarrass yourself further with mythical rental market analysis!

38. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 229 threads 2,790 comments

    57   11:01am Tue 17 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   robertoaribas says "Home for rent, $4000 a month. Yes, you can rent the same home across the street for $3000, but I have a high mortgage to pay, hence the rent I am asking. Can someone else try and explain to him what I said in my post #54, I've tried twice, but he just doesn't get my point....... Here's a repeat of what I wrote: Call it Crazy says What I posted is what I see HERE (this isn't Phoenix) is that home owners are trying a last ditch effort to save their house by renting it and trying to cover their existing mortgage payment. They aren't trying to match the "supply and demand" piece of the equation..

39. New Renter Follow Befriend (3) 13 threads 2,227 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    58   4:43pm Tue 17 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   robertoaribas says "Home for rent, $4000 a month. Yes, you can rent the same home across the street for $3000, but I have a high mortgage to pay, hence the rent I am asking. Thanks in advance!" Do you take pets?

40. everything Follow Befriend (2) 3 threads 552 comments Madison, WI

    59   6:19pm Tue 17 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Government is a big renter and leaser, through welfare especially. Call it Crazy says dunnross says dunnross says o you know of any individual that was forced to sign mortgage papers almost against their own will, or are you A$$uming? Well, would you deny that the guberment's meddling in the rental market, forcing rents up, is driving people to sign mortgage papers? I don't see how the gov't. can meddle in the rental market, most of it is just local supply and demand and what the landlord needs to cover his monthly nut. Also, no one is "forced" to sign a mortgage by the gov't. The gov't. just has made it real easy for the "sheep" to take out a 3.5% FHA mortgage, only to get "sheared" later when they go underwater. It becomes taking personal responsibility for what contract you sign and having the ability to use a calculator, which are both lacking from today's "sheep"!!! You can't blame the gov't. for that.....

« First     « Previous comments