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Housing Recovery?

By HEY YOU   Follow   Wed, 20 Jun 2012, 5:09pm   5,504 views   55 comments
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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-housing-recovery-based-what

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1. APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich Follow Befriend (28) 171 threads 4,206 comments Premium

   1   12:59pm Thu 21 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (4)   Dislike   Protected   More like another 70%

2. curious2 Follow Befriend (5) 31 threads 2,242 comments Premium

   2   3:14pm Thu 21 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (4)   Dislike   Protected   robertoaribas says Oh i see now! If inventory rises, it is bad for the housing market. If inventory falls, it is also bad for the housing market... got it! You're wrong four times in one post, possibly a new record. If inventory on the market reflects actual supply, that is good for the market because it means supply and demand can intersect at fair value. If inventory is artificially manipulated, e.g. government propping up banks to keep shadow inventory off the market, that is bad for the market.

3. curious2 Follow Befriend (5) 31 threads 2,242 comments Premium

   3   1:26pm Thu 21 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike   Protected   thomas.wong1986 says Go Ask Alice says A "housing recovery" is dramatically lower prices by definition. it is remarkable for the self professed most informed in the media (journalists) to even talk about recovery by meaning higher prices. I agree. It is very irritating to see media people call every price increase "good news for the housing market." Good news for any market means efficient clearance at fair market value, without artificial shortages (e.g. empty shadow inventory) or other distortions (government subsidizing incompetent bankers to subsidize delinquencies). However, while a 90% decline is conceivable, it is not very likely. It would require something like this: http://health.usnews.com/health-news/news/articles/2012/06/21/once-banned-bird-flu-study-yields-sobering-findings Stephen King's "The Stand" described a similar scenario, with a 100% drop in housing prices.

4. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 229 threads 2,779 comments

   4   6:51pm Wed 20 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike (1)   Get ready for the housing recovery..... or not.... Morgan Stanley: Home prices will fall another 5% to 8% http://www.housingwire.com/content/morgan-stanely-home-prices-will-fall-another-5-8 ..."Analysts at Morgan Stanley predict a 5% to 8% decline in home prices between the fourth quarter of 2013 and the first quarter of 2014." ..."In its latest report on the state of housing, they expect a prolonged bottom, with post-trough home prices growing mainly at the rate of the consumer price index." ..."Among nondistressed homes, prices will fall 5% to 10%, they said, notwithstanding historically high affordability metrics, driven mainly by continued constraints on mortgage credit availability." I wonder how far the prices will fall between now and the fourth quarter of 2013???

5. curious2 Follow Befriend (5) 31 threads 2,242 comments Premium

   5   1:46pm Thu 21 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Protected   robertoaribas says sorry if the sarcasm went over your head... clearly you are clueless...your complete and utter ignorance. You don't sound sorry, and you don't seem to understand the difference between sarcasm and witless misplaced insults. Knowing your private unsourced definitions of common terms isn't an indicator of whether a person is educated. You do provide though a good example of where the Ignore feature can be useful.

6. HEY YOU Follow Befriend (4) 331 threads 919 comments

   6   12:58pm Thu 21 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Morgan Stanley: Home prices will fall another 5% to 8%. How about 10-20%?

7. curious2 Follow Befriend (5) 31 threads 2,242 comments Premium

   7   1:35pm Thu 21 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   robertoaribas says Really? so if prices fall to $0 would be a great recovery then? Ask your mom about that head drop game she played with you as a child! I'm starting to see why people say you're full of something. I don't even know what game you're talking about, but I'll leave your mom out of it.

8. HEY YOU Follow Befriend (4) 331 threads 919 comments

   8   1:51pm Thu 21 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   It must be true if robertoaribus says it.

9. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 229 threads 2,779 comments

   9   2:36pm Thu 21 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike (1)   robertoaribas says We have already seen a sales (volume) recovery, now in many markets, we are starting to see a price recovery. There you go, talking about your little "slice" of Phoenix again... You really need to get out in the real world...... volume, please.... Here, I'll help you with the BIG picture: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-crisis-not-enough-buy-151345032.html

10. curious2 Follow Befriend (5) 31 threads 2,242 comments Premium

    10   2:51pm Thu 21 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   robertoaribas says yes, dropping inventory... does that sound like a bad thing to a market? even to you?????? Inventory is being hidden in the shadows (REO, non-performing loans, etc.). Yes, that is a bad thing.

11. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 229 threads 2,779 comments

    11   3:11pm Thu 21 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike (1)   robertoaribas says robertoaribas says We have already seen a sales (volume) recovery, now in many markets, we are starting to see a price recovery. There you go, talking about your little "slice" of Phoenix again... You really need to get out in the real world...... volume, please.... Here, I'll help you with the BIG picture: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-crisis-not-enough-buy-151345032.html call you crazy: It helps if you learn how to READ the articles you link... first two paragraphs: Sales of existing homes declined in May, according to a new report from the National Association of Realtors, I DID read, and now you contradicted yourself.... So, which is it... sales (volume) recovery per your first comment?? OR "Sales of existing homes declined in May" as you quoted from the article...?? I don't think you can have it both ways..... so which one?? robertoaribas says There are currently 2.49 million for sale, a drop of 20 percent from a year ago. To make matters worse, supply is lowest on the low end Oh, another secret, price run up because of LIMITED inventory isn't a recovery, just a limited local "supply and demand issue"... ie: mini-bubble, NOT a RECOVERY!! Go re-read the article!!!

12. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 229 threads 2,779 comments

    12   8:02pm Thu 21 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   robertoaribas says "inventory is being hidden in the shadows... blah blah blah" grow up seriously! the number of loans 90 days delinquent or in foreclosure is actually down by 30% compared to 2 years ago. It isn't going to disappear overnight, but if your theory were true, this statistic would be increasing, not decreasing. And, those tend to be highest in the judicial foreclosure states, i.e. NOT California or Arizona. And btw, those numbers are legally required financial reports for lenders, far more trustworthy than the silly shadow mystery numbers backing your scenario. You know, I was going to respond to you rant...... nevermind.... Oh boy....

13. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,520 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    13   9:46pm Thu 21 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   Housing recovery? Moody's just downgraded 15 major banks including those with enormous liabilities in mortgage based assets (Bank of America anyone?): http://money.cnn.com/2012/06/21/investing/bank-downgrades/index.htm?hpt=hp_t1 Recovery? No, no, no, things are going to get even worse, and I was one of those who thought that we might be reaching the bottom this year. Kicking the can down the road just doesn't work.

14. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

    14   11:06pm Sat 23 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   Because Nevada, Arizona, and Texas are much cheaper deserts than California.

15. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 229 threads 2,779 comments

    15   8:00pm Wed 20 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   robertoaribas says hmm, let's pull up some of their predictions from 2006 and 2007 for laughs! I wish you would...

16. thomas.wong1986 Follow Befriend 16 threads 4,426 comments

    16   8:46pm Wed 20 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Go Ask Alice says A "housing recovery" is dramatically lower prices by definition. it is remarkable for the self professed most informed in the media (journalists) to even talk about recovery by meaning higher prices. infact they havent even talked about what normal prices means how they have behaved over the past decades.

17. HEY YOU Follow Befriend (4) 331 threads 919 comments

    17   1:07pm Thu 21 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Several years ago a British man said to not buy a house until they fell 90% from peak. I've looked for the article & can't find it. It may have been removed to stop a panic.

18. HEY YOU Follow Befriend (4) 331 threads 919 comments

    18   1:10pm Thu 21 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Optimistic = Extend & Pretend. LOL

19. HEY YOU Follow Befriend (4) 331 threads 919 comments

    19   1:37pm Thu 21 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   If robertoaribus says it then it must be true.

20. inflection point Follow Befriend 4 threads 266 comments Fremont, CA

    20   7:45pm Thu 21 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Just because banks have decided to halt foreclosure or turn to short sales does not mean this is a healthy market. Low inventory is bad for the housing market because demand cannot be satisfied. This time of year is prime selling time. It's not going to get better in the fall regardless of inventory.