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Why So Few Homes Are on the Market

By tovarichpeter   Follow   Tue, 12 Jun 2012, 8:19am   4,544 views   32 comments
In South San Francisco CA 94080   Watch (0)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-06-11/why-so-few-homes-are-on-the-market

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1. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 228 threads 2,748 comments

   1   2:21pm Tue 12 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Calling Roberto, where are you?? ...."It’s no surprise then that cities such as Bakersfield, Calif., and Phoenix have seen some of the sharpest decline in inventory over the past year, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. “The presence of negative equity … restricts the ability of owners to list their homes for sale as the demand side of the market improves,” Sam Khater, a senior economist at CoreLogic, says in the report."

2. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,606 comments

   2   3:40pm Tue 12 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   Call it Crazy says The presence of negative equity … restricts the ability of owners to list their homes for sale as the demand side of the market improves,” Sam Khater, a senior economist at CoreLogic, says in the report." Who cares? Lower supply with constant demand = higher prices. If you want to argue that there are lots of owners with negative equity that will sell when/if prices rise and that will put a ceiling on the rise in prices, I might agree. But if this article is correct, it certainly doesn't imply that prices will fall any time soon.

3. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,606 comments

   3   3:43pm Tue 12 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Margaret Has A HorseFace says And demand is at 15 year lows and falling Source?

4. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,606 comments

   4   3:46pm Tue 12 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   ok--here's what I found: http://news.yahoo.com/us-home-sales-across-country-hopeful-sign-181544778--finance.html

5. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

   5   9:27pm Tue 12 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   What's new? Severely underwater home owners can't list/sell. Banks holding the foreclosed one are underwater too,so banks can't sell either. Lastly,the first 2 situations applies to short sales as well. This market is going to be depressed for several more years.

6. misc_login Follow Befriend 2 threads 10 comments

   6   8:20am Sun 17 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   tatupu70 says Margaret Has A HorseFace says And demand is at 15 year lows and falling Source? by "demand" what are you referring to? It's probably not mortgage applications right? http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/13/us-usa-economy-mortgages-idUSBRE85C0JK20120613 Here's a Forbes article from a year ago, where they link "demand" to mortgage application, where at the time, it was dipping/shrinking/contracting: http://www.forbes.com/sites/advisor/2011/06/21/mortgage-demand-wanes-despite-historically-low-interest-rates/

7. HEY YOU Follow Befriend (4) 328 threads 913 comments

   7   8:55am Sun 17 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   It's Spring-Summer, the EURO zone is great, employment is going to skyrocket & housing only appreciates. I'm such an optimist.

8. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,606 comments

   8   11:58am Sun 17 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Fred Flintstone says eh.... demand as in sales. (shaking head) Hint: It's a 1997 levels and falling. You make me laugh. Do you think if you keep writing that enough it will make it true? Or are you trying to convince yourself?

9. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,606 comments

   9   12:04pm Sun 17 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Fred Flintstone says Sales are at 1997 levels. How many years ago was that? I'll do math for your ethically challenged liars. I see your problem again. You're a little behind the data. Sales were at 1997 levels last winter, but have risen quite a bit since then. Sales were ahead of last year in March and April.

10. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    10   12:55pm Sun 17 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   HRHMedia says Why So Few Homes Are on the Market! Because so many owners are under water and, they figured, it's better for them to squat than to sell. Banks are hiding inventory, because, they are playing on the emotions of foolish knife-catchers, as they try to dump some of their shadow inventory on the few fools still willing to pay inflated prices, just before, the bottom drops out.

11. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

    11   12:59pm Sun 17 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   HRHMedia says Why So Few Homes Are on the Market! because !SALARIES HAVE NOT RISEN in 50 years! Infact against inflation they have gone down.. Pretend,ignore,and extend - slow the bleeding.

12. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    12   1:00pm Sun 17 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   tatupu70 says I see your problem again. You're a little behind the data. Sales were at 1997 levels last winter, but have risen quite a bit since then. Sales were ahead of last year in March and April. Sales are now falling, not rising: The National Association of Realtors, the sector’s main trade group, said Wednesday its seasonally adjusted index for pending sales of existing homes decreased 5.5% on a monthly basis to 95.5, the weakest showing since December.

13. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 228 threads 2,748 comments

    13   4:52pm Sun 17 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Just a little local intel from today... Went out and took a ride for a few hours to take a quick look at some houses on MLS.... Noticed a bunch with signs on the lawns and after further research, many had been on the market for a while... Just rode up and down different side roads to check out the territory... The BIGGEST shock I saw, virtually every neighborhood road I went down had at least one "shadow" house on it. No realtor sign on the lawn, the tell tale town sticker on the front door, and I could tell they had been sitting for a long time empty. Way more "shadow" houses then I would expect in this area... this tells the "true" story where the housing recovery is going.... DOWN!!

14. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,759 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    14   4:54pm Sun 17 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   sales are falling in Phoenix, due to one simple fact: there are no homes for sale! I have friends that have given up looking, because every home they want has 10 offers on it the first day. Even with that said, we are selling around 8000 homes a month, with 13,000 inventory. does that really seem like a market where prices are going down any time soon? I mean to anyone that isn't the retarded troll fred flinthead?

15. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,759 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    15   5:06pm Sun 17 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   Fred Flintstone says robertoaribas says sales are falling in Phoenix, due to one simple fact: there are no homes for sale! I have friends that have given up looking, because every home they want has 10 offers on it the first day. Even with that said, we are selling around 8000 homes a month, with 13,000 inventory. does that really seem like a market where prices are going down any time soon? I mean to anyone that isn't the retarded troll fred flinthead? Sales are falling in Phoenix because prices are grossly inflated. And inventory is massive there. Why would you lie to the public about it? really? inventory of 13,000 is massive, a 1.6 month supply, when historically about 6 months supply is normal? Prices are grossly inflated... Like the home I'm buying for $85,000 that will rent for $1000 a month? or the one I bought 2 months ago for $76,000 that I rented for $975? Fred, please put your real name up here, like I do, so your friends and coworkers can eventually search you out and laugh at how stupid you are! I'm not afraid of my market observations, they are based on facts, things you can't understand!

16. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,759 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    16   5:22pm Sun 17 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   last 30 days: 8351 closed active: 12,933 for you Fred, I just counted them on the local mls. I see why you don't put your name on here, everyone would know the person behind the profound stupidity!

17. inflection point Follow Befriend 4 threads 261 comments Fremont, CA

    17   8:00pm Sun 17 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   The inventory is tight because: 1. Forclosures make up a signifcant part of sales and foreclosure pipeline was slowed by the robo signing lawsuit. 2. Banks are switching to short sales because it is more financially beneficial. 3. Some potential home sellers are watching the market from the sidelines waiting for the market to appear. 4. Its spring and summer, this is the height of the buying season. 5. At the lower end there are lots of investors so thus competition 6. the article also suggests that proplr who might like to sell are underwater and cannot.

18. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    18   9:47pm Sun 17 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   inflection point says 3. Some potential home sellers are watching the market from the sidelines waiting for the market to appear. I can just see the shock and awe when they realize that they missed the boat, as the market starts the 2nd of the 3-downleg stages in this multi-decade bust.

19. lotr1978 Follow Befriend (1) 3 threads 39 comments

    19   10:18pm Sun 17 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I have been watching the Phoenix market for several years and Roberto is not lying about these numbers. The inventory just started drying up, the builders that remain are doing quite well it seems. In Phoenix no one left but many became renters due to job loss or choice (walk aways). Building is once again on the outskirts in less desirable locations. Now I do see inventory sitting at the >250k price range both in downtown and in the suburbs. But 5 years ago these houses were twice the price Edit: Roberto I actually did send an email to you at your gmail account about real estate. It came from my yahoo acct.

20. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    20   11:03pm Sun 17 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   lotr1978 says But 5 years ago these houses were twice the price The multi-decade housing bust will be in 3 phases. Phase 1, or the 1st leg, which is already behind us, has taken prices down 50%, followed by a dead cat bounce. The 2nd leg will take prices down another 50% of the remaining 50%. And finally, the 3rd phase another 50%, for a total of 87.5% from the peak.

21. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    21   8:06am Mon 18 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   robertoaribas says last 30 days: 8351 closed active: 12,933 + another 100,000 in the shadow = 13.5 month supply

22. AF fan Follow Befriend (1) 1 threads 17 comments San Francisco, CA

    22   1:59pm Mon 18 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Roberto is certainly a shill. In fact there seem to be quite a few NAR shills on here now. Well, at least Patrick is costing them (the NAR) money. Thank you Patrick.

23. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,759 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    23   4:22pm Mon 18 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   dunnross says lotr1978 says But 5 years ago these houses were twice the price The multi-decade housing bust will be in 3 phases. Phase 1, or the 1st leg, which is already behind us, has taken prices down 50%, followed by a dead cat bounce. The 2nd leg will take prices down another 50% of the remaining 50%. And finally, the 3rd phase another 50%, for a total of 87.5% from the peak. Yes, the fall will be precisely 87.5%... The oracle has spoken... What a freaking mental nitwit! kperrin says Roberto is certainly a shill. In fact there seem to be quite a few NAR shills on here now. Well, at least Patrick is costing them (the NAR) money. Thank you Patrick. If you don't like the data, insult the person who presents it? I see, another person of low iq joins the conversation. Let me help you out, to debate a point, you need these things called facts to support an opinion... I post facts, I make decisions based on facts I research, kind of a different philosophy than what seems to guide a bunch of people on here, of posting wildly speculative opinions based on wishful thinking. Years ago, back when this blog had only one thread a day, I posted facts showing the crash was imminent... Back in the days when half the talk was about sushi... It was under a different login, but same name and pic... See, that is how I role: study the data, draw logical conclusions, and make the best decisions I can for my financial future. But by all means, keep living in your fanciful world of daydreams, the world needs people to be wrong, so others like me can profit by being right!

24. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 228 threads 2,748 comments

    24   8:30pm Mon 18 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   inflection point says The inventory is tight because: 1. Foreclosures make up a signifcant part of sales and foreclosure pipeline was slowed by the robo signing lawsuit. 2. Banks are switching to short sales because it is more financially beneficial. 3. Some potential home sellers are watching the market from the sidelines waiting for the market to appear. 4. Its spring and summer, this is the height of the buying season. 5. At the lower end there are lots of investors so thus competition 6. the article also suggests that people who might like to sell are underwater and cannot. Yep, all of the above!!

25. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    25   8:39pm Mon 18 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   robertoaribas says What a freaking mental nitwit! You are a f*n moron yourself, and your dog is ugly and has rabies.

26. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,759 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    26   8:48pm Mon 18 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   dunnross says robertoaribas says What a freaking mental nitwit! You are a f*n moron yourself, and your dog is ugly and has rabies. another excellent fact filled post! Bravo! You sir are choc-o-bloc full of relevant real estate news based on careful analysis, and witty comments!

27. True Real House Sheriff Follow Befriend (1) 29 comments San Mateo, CA

    27   10:04pm Mon 18 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   dunnross says You are a f*n moron yourself, and your dog is ugly and has rabies. Even if I disagree with some of the things this guy says, this random quip made me LOL big time.

28. APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich Follow Befriend (28) 169 threads 4,153 comments Premium

    28   3:22am Tue 19 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   The Real House Sheriff says dunnross says You are a f*n moron yourself, and your dog is ugly and has rabies. Even if I disagree with some of the things this guy says, this random quip made me LOL big time. Yeah, and what kind of maroon puts sun glasses on a dog, anyway?

29. TechGromit Follow Befriend (6) 85 threads 968 comments 44 male Egg Harbor City, NJ

    29   4:10am Tue 19 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   HRHMedia says Stop the BUBBLES! NO TO BUBBLES! Bubbles are part of the normal rise and fall of the economy. Bubbles have existed for centuries, and will continue to occur in the future. Bubbles are a normal part of the expansion, contraction economy. Extreme bubbles however are not. If the banks and regulators didn't relax there borrowing standards, the housing market would have topped out in 2003 or 2004, and we probably would have just seen a small recession afterwards. Instead of the massive bubble were still dealing with the after affects today.

30. TechGromit Follow Befriend (6) 85 threads 968 comments 44 male Egg Harbor City, NJ

    30   4:14am Tue 19 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   dunnross says Because so many owners are under water and, they figured, it's better for them to squat than to sell. Banks are hiding inventory, because, they are playing on the emotions of foolish knife-catchers, as they try to dump some of their shadow inventory on the few fools still willing to pay inflated prices, just before, the bottom drops out. Actually I think the banks were pretty smart not dumping all there inventory on the open market, they are getting better prices for there inventory by keeping the available inventory for sale tight. I do however question how long there inventory that is not for sale will continue to be desirable. At this rate it's going to take over 10 years to clear there existing inventory, houses that are vacant for years, if not a decade tend to get trashed given enough time.

31. TechGromit Follow Befriend (6) 85 threads 968 comments 44 male Egg Harbor City, NJ

    31   4:20am Tue 19 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   robertoaribas says dunnross says robertoaribas says What a freaking mental nitwit! You are a f*n moron yourself, and your dog is ugly and has rabies. another excellent fact filled post! Bravo! You sir are choc-o-bloc full of relevant real estate news based on careful analysis, and witty comments! I see friends listed for "dunross", but no enemies. Perhaps we need a new option listed for user profiles. :)

32. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

    32   7:34am Tue 19 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   inflection point says The inventory is tight because: 1. Forclosures make up a signifcant part of sales and foreclosure pipeline was slowed by the robo signing lawsuit. 2. Banks are switching to short sales because it is more financially beneficial. 3. Some potential home sellers are watching the market from the sidelines waiting for the market to appear. 4. Its spring and summer, this is the height of the buying season. 5. At the lower end there are lots of investors so thus competition 6. the article also suggests that proplr who might like to sell are underwater and cannot. 7. There are absolutely no move up opportunities,and hence very low number of listing. 8. Tremendous decrease in income for some people who very in a position to afford before and now they can't. 9. New graduates are reeling with shit load of student loan debt and can't jump on the housing band wagon as soon as they land their low paying first job! 10. Pressure on govt. budget has put immense pressure on govt. spending that brings some $ into economy. Tell me a few reasons why house prices should go up?