Wow, it sure looks like WSJ reporters are getting paid by the NAR to run ads in place of stories. For example:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304723304577366294046658820.html
contains this:
At the current pace of sales, it would take just 1.5 months to sell all the homes listed in Sacramento, Calif., and 2.4 months to sell all the homes listed in Phoenix.
And yet we see from Zillow that there are 12,841 houses for sale right now in Phoenix:
http://www.zillow.com/homes/Phoenix-AZ_rb/
Wait, that's low. Trulia shows 17,294 houses for sale right now in Phoenix:
http://www.trulia.com/AZ/Phoenix/
Those are all going to sell in 2.4 months? I don't think so.
It is sad to see the WSJ ruin their credibility in this way.
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Bigsby says
I'd consult with TMAC54 over you because of logical reasons. You use typical attack style debate techniques when the data doesn't side with you. Soft on people, hard on the facts is always the best approach. There is a boatload of facts on this site that gets everyone thinking about housing and the history and future. None of us know the exact outcome and people can view the same data and develop different opinions. That doesn't mean they are bad people, like many on this site seem to imply. To each his own. Good luck to all.
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Monterey, CA
I use attack style debate? Perhaps you need to reread the majority of your posts.
And yes, I'm quite sure you'd consult with him ahead of me as he would clearly help you to reinforce your seemingly fossilized outlook on housing.
And it doesn't seem to be me who has an issue with the data - you and I had a long back and forth in another thread where you completely misunderstood what was going on but still steadfastly cleaved to your preconceptions. Facts don't really seem to mean that much to you when they don't match with what you want to hear. And yes, people can view the same data and form different opinions, but all too often the likes of you and other perma-bears insult those who disagree - apparently we're sheep, or gullible, or just plain stupid for not being able to see what you are supposedly saving us from. Forgive me if I don't quite see it that way.
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
Are you being serious? You've already admitted that you made that comment up in an earlier post, so you've just proven once again that you are bullshitting. Honestly, where's the facepalm smiley.
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Bigsby says
I never made it up. I don't lie like you suggest. I just went against my morals to post it, because it highlighted the stupidity of boasting about ones own fortunes to win an argument. The whole 1.5 million dollar statement doesn't show any good virtues. If someone said that to me in a face-to-face I would just walk away. The fact that you don't get that, then means I would most likely walk away from you as well.
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I understand that banks are not in the business of keeping houses, but I also don't buy that they have to release homes because of holding cost.
I think for mid-tier to higher-tier distressed homes in CA, the holding cost are much much less than the loss that would be caused by releasing the home at the "true" market price.
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Bigsby says
Perfect example of deflection again. Textbook. And yes, I am using it here also. I don't draw first blood, but I can stab better than most.
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
Dear, me. Deflection implies that I'm avoiding addressing issues you've raised. Unfortunately, you haven't raised any issues worth addressing, so what exactly am I deflecting from?
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
This is ridiculous. You admitted a few posts earlier that it was an apocryphal tale used to reinforce your dig at Roberto. Can you not even follow your own posts? But don't worry, I rather doubt anybody believed you in the first place.
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Bigsby says
So let me figure this out. You read my post, which I'll reproduce here word for word.
Glad you caught that. Sometimes when you make the same point that you are highlighting, people tend to get it. :) It is NOT cool, ever!
And you concluded the following "it was an apocryphal tale used to reinforce your dig at Roberto".
Yup, I would just walk away. Bye and good luck to you. We are so far from the OP intention that I personally apologize. I do believe that Phoenix is not going to get any better like many imply. Jobs??? Incomes??? Debt??? Underwater??? Nothing is there to help it get better except NAR propaganda. Numbers look a little better because they suck big time. The story looks much different in California (especially the BA). Housing prices don't suck here, my view is they will in time, but right now they don't.
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You have to be joking. That post was in response to mine where I remarked that what you said was comedy gold. Is this like the last thread where you just can't follow what is going on? Nobody believes what you said in response to Roberto, or do you seriously think that people are nodding their heads and going "Oh look, RFHTC is good mates with some of the richest people in the world, not millionaires mind, but multi-billionaires. I guess Larry, Sergey and Mark must all go round to his rental on a Friday to chat about real estate. Or perhaps he goes to theirs." You appear to be neck deep in your own bullshit and sinking fast.
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ArtimusMaxtor says
I'm pretty sure I agree with you, but I don't think you said it clearly enough. Here's my attempt:
Everything in America can be explained as a filthy battle for control over your labor.
Money is just paper. It's an abstraction. The concrete reality is that you are trapped and forced to labor for the people who control the money system.
And the biggest trap of all is mortgage debt: 30 years of bondage to a lender who does no visible work himself. If people were free to own a house without paying a mortgage, they would not be such obedient servants of the rich (their bosses and the lenders).
This is why you will NEVER hear anyone in power say that buying a house with no debt at all is a good thing. It's why they never call falling house prices "good" even though they are obviously good for the laboring masses.
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So in the WSJ article a couple in Danville talks about how they got 17 bids in 4 days. Even though it was sold for 180K less than what they paid for it back in 2004, it went for 50K above askings. Not really sure the point this all makes. One conclusion is the realtor priced the house incorrectly garnering all the bids. They still lost a boatload of money over 8 years of ownership, so instead of getting me all ichy to run out and buy, like most of the article seems to be saying, I wouldn't. 180K loss? That probably doesn't include the closing and commission fees either.
Anyway, to be fair in writing they should have also talked about the Danville houses that have been on the market for a while now even though they have reduced the price 50K. Wouldn't that be fair? There are many. Here are just two as an example.
http://www.trulia.com/property/3078382450-28-Shelly-Pl-Danville-CA-94526
http://www.trulia.com/property/1034214788-226-Loch-Lomond-Way-Danville-CA-94526
In the description of the 2nd link you will see it says "Need an offer" at the end. Do you think the seller reads that WSJ article and doesn't call his realtor saying WTF? 17 bids in 4 days, and I can't get just 1?
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jvolstad's website
Even though I sometimes frequent Bay Area open houses, no way I would ever buy a property here. One word: Taxes. That plus these post stamp sized yards.
An actual (my) Bay Area (Millbrae, CA) backyard:
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
You gotta love Journalist! ... they always get the big picture!
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Patrick says
Mortgage instruments are not the problem... our society isnt talking about what really matters... PRICE.
No one talks about what REAL prices were in the past and normal level of affordability.
Using mortgage as an issue is disctration from the real issues and hasnt solved the real issues.
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What a disgusting,misleading story! Bidding wars are back,but,but prices ain't going up,isn't that fact itself negates this article?
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thomas.wong1986 says
Mortgage lending drives high prices and high prices force buyers to borrow. So I think it's pretty much the same issue.
If we could stop all mortgage lending, I think that would be a very good thing overall for America. Seriously. Prices would far lower, and you would know for sure what a house was worth.
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bubblesitter says
True, prices are not rising on a year over year basis. These kind of articles come out every year in the spring, mistaking the seasonal rise in activity for a recovering housing market.
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Patrick says
How would this not be a massive transfer of wealth? If we dont allow mortgage loans, why not outlaw car loans, small business loans, credit cards... Where does it end?
With the already massive income equality in the US... All stopping credit would do is allow the rich to buy up all the land and rent to the middle class as peons.
You cannot change the rules of the game at halftime.
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Patrick says
I think you've nailed it.
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Patrick says
Medical Insurance is allowing medical treatment costs to rise uncontrollably.

Auto lending has allowed car prices to skyrocket. etc.etc.
The middle man wins in every case.
Gubmint uses TAX(s) as their cash cow. Tax is the only one you can still be jailed for. At least in 2012. Banks are working on it though.
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Patrick says
The only mortgage allowed should be 15 year fixed loans with a minimum of 20% down and the buyer needs decent credit. Banks would not be allowed sell off these notes. But then they are only 15 year mortgages with large down payments.
Problem solved.
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bmwman91's website
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jvolstad says
Why do you hate America?
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jvolstad says
Good idea.
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leo707's website
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Patrick says
The WSJ lost its credibility when Rupert Murdoch rolled it into NewsCorp right beside FOX "news".
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leoj707 says
Oh. I see. And you think CNN was objective when Turner owned it and even more so when bought by Time Warner? How about ABC. I suppose you think Micky Mouse is more credible than Rupert?
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gromitmpl says
Yep.
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Scottsdale, AZ
robertoaribas's website
mls listings in phoenix as of this second, are under 13,000 actives... continuing the drop mentioned in the WSJ. 8794 closed in the last 30 days. Do your own division. A balanced market has 5 or 6 months inventory, in 2008 we had a stunning 2 years of inventory... For another objective source, go to housingtracker.net
I took tons of heat in 2005 and 2006 for predicting the crash, and selling my properties...From precisely this same attention to numbers... Maybe UC. Berkeley graduate math studies helped... Go ahead, I can take it on the other side too!
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robertoaribas says
You do seem to rather enjoy bigging yourself up.
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robertoaribas's website
Bigsby says
yep, that's what I'm talking about. Can't look at number or think, but can toss a personal insult out there... just like in 2005 and 2006...
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bmwman91 says
The mortgage industry is so hysterically and irreparably criminalized that it should be disbanded.
The FBI's report showed that in 30% of cases of fraud that it found, the originator taught the borrower how to jigger the application data to qualify.
Which means that in more like 75% of all cases, the originator is an agent of financial crime as a workaday fact of life.
Time to stop the crime and just put the suckers out of business.
It's CASH or FUCK YOU, America!
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robertoaribas says
Err, if you think that's an insult.... You frequently boast about your properties and now that you've apparently exhausted that particular outlet, you've moved on to your education. Why not wind it back in a bit and make your points without resorting to the same old, same old? I don't think it would detract from your points. And by the way, I'm not one of the perma-bears on here, so that particular come back doesn't wash.
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Patrick says
Stop all mortgage lending? Look up the average americans savings and tell me how homes can cost so little when the price to build the home cost more than people have in savings and you will see that mortgages are necessary. I'm sure you would love a free house after all attempts at shorting the market but people don't labor for free and the cost of construction is going up as the price of energy/oil and everything goes up.
Also not sure why people think the prices should cost the same as they did 100 years ago inflation adjusted. Things are different, energy/oil prices go up, rising construction costs, supply/demand, standard of living increases as ammenities in residential neighborhoods improve like water, electricity, garbage disposal, roads, road lighting exc, sure these weren't up to par when your grandfather was alive
What traps people in the homes (besides negative equity) is the spread (the selling fees) like agent fees, paperwork exc, if this was reduced and streamlined, people would be more mobile similiar to apartment owners. Even if you gave homes away for free, selling would still be an issue as people always seem to spend what extra income they have and not afford the fees (in times when you can't count on appreciation or equity).
I believe this to be just as important as lower prices.
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leo707's website
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gromitmpl says
No, no news source is completely objective. I am not sure why you would infer that from my post. There is however a gray scale of objectivity ranging from completely non-bias to entirely bias propaganda. Objectivity in news sources is not a Boolean expression.
When studied every major news source in the US has at the very least a slight conservative bias. NPR is found to be the most non-bias news source.
FOX "news" in particular, and Murdoch's News Corp. has an extremely high bias. You would be hard pressed to find a major news source that has the same level of bias, FOX "news" would even give the Chinese state run news service a run for their money.
FYI, if you are curious as to what a "news" source with a high liberal bias looks like you can check this out:
http://www.kpfa.org/home
gromitmpl says
Yes, yes, yes! A thousand times yes!
To be fair though I also think that Micky Mouse is also more credible than the Chinese state run news service and KPFA.
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All for-profit news is propaganda. They have to do the bidding of the people with the money, or they're out of business.
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leo707's website
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robertoaribas says
Housing tracker puts Phoenix at 15,396 down -1.7% from last week. I don't see that they have the properties closed though, what is an objective source for that?
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wthrfrk80 says
True, and the internet is a big threat to that propoganda business. So I suspect a lot of SOPA and PIPA were really driven by businesses and politicians who want to limit the public's alternatives for information.
To win in America, you don't have to make a good product or tell the truth. You just have to use the laws to prevent competition with you.
leoj707 says
In theory the county records office will have "public" records of all closings. Getting that information out of them can be hard though.
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robertoaribas's website
Patrick says
Nope, it is actually easy. Go to www.maricopa.gov click on recorded documents, search for deed of trust, that is the legal note that moves property... set your beginning date and end date, and viola! click on the 1000 or 500 or 250 per page to make your counting easier. The data will be current up to a couple weeks ago, so search mid march to mid april to get a 30 day count...
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xenogear3 says
"Money can't buy me love."
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Patrick says
God Bless America.