2012 YY Inventory, Median Price, and Age of Inventory on the Market


By BayArea   Follow   Thu, 12 Apr 2012, 2:53pm   5,450 views   36 comments
In Oakland CA 94618   Watch (0)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

Hi folks, just came across this link showing a comparison between 2012 & 2011 inventory, median price, and # of days on market in three Northern California cities:

http://www.realtor.com/data-portal/Real-Estate-Statistics.aspx?source=web

YY Inventory:
Oakland: -47%
San Francisco: -29%
San Jose: -34.4%

YY Median List Price:
Oakland: +10.4%
San Francisco: +1.1%
San Jose: +7.9%

YY Median Age of Inventory:
Oakland: -42.9%
San Francisco: -26%
San Jose: -27.3

What's your theory for what is pushing supply down this significantly? Let's focus on that since the Median List Price and the Median Age of Inventory are just outputs of the supply drop.

BayArea

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  1. bubblesitter


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    1   7:08pm Thu 12 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Isn't this site backed,owned,operated by NAR?

  2. tdeloco


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    2   8:27pm Thu 12 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    People don't wanna sell. Isn't that obvious?

  3. Hysteresis


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    3   9:58pm Thu 12 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    BayArea says

    YY Median List Price:
    Oakland: +10.4%
    San Francisco: +1.1%
    San Jose: +7.9%

    list price isn't as useful as sale price.

  4. ThreeBays


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    4   10:02pm Thu 12 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    tdeloco says

    People don't wanna sell. Isn't that obvious?

    Bingo.

    Inventories are down to about half YoY.
    Sales are down YoY too.

    In other words supply is pushed down by lack of interest to sell, not by an increase in sales.

  5. thomas.wong1986


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    5   11:37pm Thu 12 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    BayArea says

    YY Median List Price:
    Oakland: +10.4%
    San Francisco: +1.1%
    San Jose: +7.9%

    Funny... Dqnews.com which is published nationwide shows SF Bay Area prices falling.

    http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2012/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay120118.aspx

  6. Hysteresis


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    6   12:02am Fri 13 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    thomas.wong1986 says

    Funny... Dqnews.com which is published nationwide shows SF Bay Area prices falling.

    http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2012/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay120118.aspx

    dqnews reports sale price.

    this is list price.

    big difference.

  7. APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch


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    7   12:05am Fri 13 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    I believe everything I am told by the NAR

  8. xenogear3


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    8   1:49am Fri 13 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    50% visitors here are "unemployed" realtors.

    Just like many people point out, the sale is down too.
    We really don't know if the next leg will up or down.
    Whatever it is, it will be big.

  9. lostand confused


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    9   2:42am Fri 13 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    I think the sellers are hoping that the market has turned. Judging by Japan, we may have along time to go-unless jobs come back. Either of our crazy parties are not itnerested in tarriffs or bringing jobs back-just blaming the other party. So we are stuck and our standard of living will probably go down to match the Chinese.

  10. tatupu70


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    10   5:12am Fri 13 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    ThreeBays says

    Sales are down YoY too.

    Source?

    According to Thomas' link, they are up:

    "A total of 7,494 new and resale houses and condos sold in the nine-county Bay Area in December. That was up 18.6 percent from 6,317 in November, and up 4.4 percent from 7,178 in December 2010. The year-over-year increase was the sixth in a row, according to San Diego-based DataQuick."

  11. FortWayne


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    11   7:15am Fri 13 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Watch the real inventory early next year, it will be big.

  12. bubblesitter


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    12   9:00am Fri 13 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    APOCALYPSEFUCK is Tony Manero says

    I believe everything I am told by the NAR

    Yep,like 2006 was a good time to buy!

  13. Goran_K


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    13   9:09am Fri 13 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    It's seriously one of the worst times to buy that I can remember since late 2008 (low inventory, high priced properties from bubble buyers trying to bail out too late).

  14. bubblesitter


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    14   9:25am Fri 13 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Goran_K says

    It's seriously one of the worst times to buy that I can remember since late 2008 (low inventory, high priced properties from bubble buyers trying to bail out too late).

    Seriously,those $8000 hand outs from uncle sam screwed them up! In my zipcode(in socal) there are quite a few that are popping up on redfin - bought around 2008/2009 and and are now listed lower then the bought price.

  15. Goran_K


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    15   9:52am Fri 13 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Yeah, I'm surprised to see the amount of people "short selling" after 2 freaking years.

    Look at this FHA'er right here in Irvine:
    http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/22-Atherton-92620/home/4781303

    Trying to get out with a $40,000 loss, no problem though, that was Uncle Sam money anyway.

    Good grief.

  16. edvard2


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    16   10:20am Fri 13 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    I think this could be summed up quite easily: Seasonal changes.

    Winter is typically the slowest when it comes to home sales and thus inventory drops. Also- the weather for the past few months around here has been pretty crappy. That too effects the market.

  17. bubblesitter


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    17   10:29am Fri 13 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    But,but 2009 was the bottom!!!

  18. APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch


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    18   10:41am Fri 13 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    It's 10x in 5 years. You aren't in now, your kids will be living in abandoned cars and boxes.

  19. BayArea


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    19   10:42am Fri 13 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    edvard2 says

    I think this could be summed up quite easily: Seasonal changes.

    The numbers above compare the same season this year to the same season exactly 1 year ago.

  20. BayArea


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    20   10:44am Fri 13 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    tdeloco says

    People don't wanna sell. Isn't that obvious?

    Sure, but let's take it a step further.

    Why do they want to sell less today than they did 1 year ago?

    And foreclosures filings are down 17% from one year ago

    http://moneyland.time.com/2012/04/12/foreclosures-are-at-a-4-year-low-but-thats-not-necessarily-good-news/

  21. bmwman91


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    21   10:46am Fri 13 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    APOCALYPSEFUCK is Tony Manero says

    It's 10x in 5 years. You aren't in now, your kids will be living in abandoned cars and boxes.

    I'm not sure about there being unfilled boxes to live in. Most of them will be filled with hacked-up realtor parts, and we all know that exposure to realtor blood will likely infect you with their disease.

  22. BayArea


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    22   10:56am Fri 13 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Hysteresis says

    BayArea says

    YY Median List Price:

    Oakland: +10.4%

    San Francisco: +1.1%

    San Jose: +7.9%

    list price isn't as useful as sale price.

    Agreed, I wish I had sale price available to make this more meaningful.

  23. BayArea


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    23   11:08am Fri 13 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    thomas.wong1986 says

    BayArea says
    YY Median List Price:
    Oakland: +10.4%
    San Francisco: +1.1%
    San Jose: +7.9%

    Funny... Dqnews.com which is published nationwide shows SF Bay Area prices falling.
    http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2012/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay120118.aspx

    Thank you for pointing that out. So in conclusion about the Bay Area, comparing now to one year ago:

    - Supply is down significantly
    - List prices are up by a small amount
    - Sell prices are down by a small amount
    - Homes are not sitting as long as they were

    Hmmmm...

  24. edvard2


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    24   11:25am Fri 13 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    BayArea says

    The numbers above compare the same season this year to the same season exactly 1 year ago.

    But that doesn;t mean every year behaves exactly the same. The same is true for anything else that you sell- like cars, TV sets, and so on. Something as simple as the weather can in fact have a huge effect on overall market trends. Ironically, what I had repeated above came from a Realtor I talked to earlier in the week.

  25. BayArea


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    25   11:32am Fri 13 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    edvard2 says

    Something as simple as the weather can in fact have a huge effect on overall market trends.

    Weather can contribute to small fluctuations in the market, yes. I'm comparing a cold winter this year to a cold winter last year ;-)

    edvard2 says

    Ironically, what I had repeated above came from a Realtor I talked to earlier in the week.

    Scratch that, I don't believe what you just said.

  26. edvard2


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    26   11:53am Fri 13 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    BayArea says

    Scratch that, I don't believe what you just said.

    Why not? Wouldn't you think a realtor would have it in their best intrest to try and get me to buy? I talked to a realtor earlier this week and her advice was to ( believe it or not) wait because the sell season hasn't really started.

    Either way, I am not exactly concerned about supply. I've been looking and there are a LOT of houses for sale, and MANY are well below the 500k threshold we have set for ourselves.

  27. dublin hillz


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    27   12:38pm Fri 13 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Why would anyone sell right now with rents being so high? Might as well kick back and relax.

  28. bubblesitter


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    28   1:33pm Fri 13 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    dublin hillz says

    Why would anyone sell right now with rents being so high?

    Why would anyone buy with such insanely high prices?

    dublin hillz says

    Might as well kick back and relax.

    Yep, that's the best one can do while the equity sinks cuz there is no other option(I mean,to sell)

  29. gregpfielding


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    29   4:02pm Fri 13 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    BayArea says

    What's your theory for what is pushing supply down this significantly? Let's focus on that since the Median List Price and the Median Age of Inventory are just outputs of the supply drop.

    All the would-be short sales and REOs are tied up in modification programs and/or waiting to see if there will be a principal reduction program announced soon.

  30. bmwman91


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    30   4:37pm Fri 13 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    gregpfielding says

    All the would-be short sales and REOs are tied up in modification programs and/or waiting to see if there will be a principal reduction program announced soon.

    Yup. I don't know why any would-be buyers are getting their hopes up. It's an election year, and we are going to see the full spectrum of shenanigans to try to buy votes from the over-extended masses.

  31. REpro


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    31   6:16pm Fri 13 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    This is how listing vs. sales price is look like.
    House: $/Sq. Ft. in 95020 (redfin)

  32. RentingForHalfTheCost


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    32   1:11am Sat 14 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    REpro says

    This is how listing vs. sales price is look like.

    House: $/Sq. Ft. in 95020 (redfin)

    It is the old strategy of "List high, sell low" and then brag about multiple bids.

  33. bubblesitter


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    33   12:18pm Sat 14 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    List price graph is meaningless cuz sometimes it is ridiculously high and sometimes it is ridiculously low to attract multiple bids. Actual sold price graph by tier level is the only thing that matters.

  34. BayArea


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    34   6:21pm Sat 21 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Here is a good indication that although list prices are up from 2011, selling prices are largely unchanged.

    What's interesting is that sales are up in the Bay Area by 9% compared to March '11

  35. thomas.wong1986


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    35   8:35pm Sat 21 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    The media often twists the facts published by Dqnews.com
    As such the trend over the past months have been on a decline.

    http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2012/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay120418.aspx

    http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2012/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay120315.aspx

    http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2012/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay120216.aspx

    http://dqnews.com/Articles/2011/2011_archive.aspx

    •January 20, 2011 - Bay Area Housing Ends Year With Many Looking but Not Buying
    •February 17, 2011 - Slow 2011 Start for Bay Area Housing Market
    •March 17, 2011 - Bay Area Housing Market Stuck in Neutral; Investors, Cash Buyers Active
    •April 14, 2011 - Sales up, Prices Down for Bay Area Housing Market
    •May 16, 2011 - Bay Area Home Sales Lose Momentum; Median Price Dips Below 2010 Level - Again
    •June 15, 2011 - Bay Area Home Sales, Median Price Inch Up from April; Fall below 2010
    •July 14, 2011 - Bay Area June Home Sales Surge, Median Price Edges Up to 2011 High
    •August 16, 2011 - Bay Area Housing Market Takes a Breather
    •September 16, 2011 - Bay Area Home Sales Rise; Prices Trend Flat to Downward
    •October 14, 2011 - Bay Area Home Sales Up, Prices Down from Year Ago
    •November 16, 2011 - Bay Area Home Sales Up From 2010, Prices Down
    •December 14, 2011 - Bay Area Home Prices Low, Sales Creep Up

    You should of course check your county and city...

    http://dqnews.com/Charts/Monthly-Charts/CA-City-Charts/ZIPCAR.aspx

  36. Katy Perry


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    36   8:52pm Sat 21 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    fact, it's a bad time to sell or buy in SF.

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