WatchBeen searching around and talking to other investors in chat rooms and there's a growing number of folks thinking it's a good time to start shorting Apple. They may have reached their peak and the decline is beginning. A recent article from Jin Yee states that she's one of those that believe it's a good time to start looking into shorting Apple also.
source: http://www.hotstockstobuy.com/2012/03/the-new-ipad-first-day-sales-report/
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John Bailo's website
Apple basically sells pocket calculators.
Look what happened there.
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hanera says
Well, that's your privilege, but going by both activations and phones sold, Droid is the dominant Smartphone in the US, with a clear lead on the iPhone.
hanera says
Different distros of Linux are more similar to each other than they are to Windows or Macs. Ditto with Droid.
EBGuy says
This. And, that in much of the world, carriers don't subsidize - phones and service are sold separately.
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Vicente says
You must don't play stock market.
No one buy at bottom and short at top.
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xenogear3 says
Agree. Since the introduction of iPod in 2001, AAPL is appreciating at an average annual rate of 60% per year. 1000 shares bought for $10,000 in 2001 is now worth $580,000.
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thunderlips11 says
Not so sure about that. Please refer to this http://gigaom.com/2012/01/09/iphone-breathing-down-the-neck-of-android-in-u-s/. In terms of profit share, Apple is leading for sure. Also, data didn't include iPod touch.
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I added a few AAPL to my position late yesterday and glad I did.
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BoomAndBustCycle says
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khalid7551 says
Stop spamming.
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I should mention, shorting APPL takes balls of steel at this point. I certainly wouldn't do it.hanera says
Yep, Apple's margins are higher so their profit is higher.
However, there's a problem with that chart that was linked to. The last datapoint wasn't a full quarter, and Ice Cream Sandwich wasn't released until late October. Also, there is a difference in Droid buyers and iPhone buyers' spend and mentality. Droid buyers could wait till Christmas, I suspect many Apple Fanboys ran on day one to grab the iPhone4s
We need to see all of Q4 2011 to see if that is just a tracking error. And Q1 2012 to see if the trend continues.
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thunderlips11 says
Nobody I know stands in line any more. I stood in line ONCE years ago, never again. For the 4s I preordered online, and got it on release day like everyone else. The days of measuring popularity by length of lines are over my friend.
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Santa Cruz, CA
I love this ad for Samsung's phone.
It's true how many Apple fanboys are out there, but the point is don't try to fight it, embrace it and get some more shares of AAPL before it's $1000.
After lots of surfing and scuba diving out here, I have learned you cannot defeat a huge swell and neither a strong current.
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This Apple story is truly sad.
Unlike Microsoft's Windows, the competitors had the same products as Apple's.
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xenogear3 says
This is not quite true. I just demonstrated to my friend that Apple website loads twice as fast on my HTC Thunderbolt (which I have for over a year) than on his brand new iPhone 4s. Chrome or IE9 on my $700 windows 7 laptop loads pages much faster than Safari or Chrome on my $1200 MacBook.
Apple just managed to convince millions of people that they have better everything. Decades from now, everyone in business schools will still be studying Apple case studies on brand marketing.
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treatmentreport says
If its marketing they will be studying WE ARE DOOMED....
You forget the so called APPLE WAY was a failure in the 80s and 90s... near banrupcty... so Jobs came back and gave the PC a color coated cases in bright Strawberry, Lemon and other Fruity Colors...
Look under the hood, what made Apple great today.. was someones else doing...Screen and Chips... LOL! its always about the CHIPS at the end of the day...
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Here we go: the android phones are plastic but they're better, Android is better than iOS, iMacs weren't a good invention, iPods weren't a good invention, iPads were not a good invention, iTunes wasn't a cash cow, iMovie and iPhoto and garageband aren't fun to use, macbook airs are not a good invention, the apple stores aren't great, the service is not great, etc.
You guys must be kidding us and yourselves.
My father isn't gonna buy a Windows ANYthing. My 30 yr. old neice is not gonna buy a Windows ANYthing. The first because he's afraid of the Fry's Electronics/nerd factor, and the second because she's a brand and status conscious female.
Do you guys see what is the main form of entertainment for women on Saturday? Buying stuff.
You can go into an Apple store and you will see them, and they all want something. As much as they can get their hands on.
You and I will venture into Frys, Walmart, Best Buy, maybe even *gasp* Radio Shack and pick up an Android phone and a Sansa MP3 player. The other people won't.
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Clambo,
You are ignoring my point. Right now I can browse patrick.net much faster on my Windows laptop or my HTC Thunderbolt than you can on your MacBook or iPhone. Yet, Apple marketing has convinced everyone otherwise, telling them that they have the fastest products.
I own Apple devices because I appreciate their shake up of the industry. I really don't appreciate the marketing that reminds me a lot of Fox News which by using repetition, convinces people of their "facts".
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treatmentreport says
I don't recall seeing marketing of that sort. Honestly I couldn't give two figs whether my page comes up in 0.5 seconds or 1 second.
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I am ignoring the claims of faster browsing particularly with windows since your browsing is also inherently unsafe in windows by the way. Depending on sites and other factors, sometimes the iPhone loads pages quicker than the samsung phone for example. Some guys even post phone browser "races" on youtube.
Apple stores have sales of $6000/square foot. The average store is $340 or so. Tiffanys is $3000/square foot.
I don't know what Fox news has to do with Apple except perhaps that it also is making more and more money and taking market share away from its competitors?
I just got another 20 shares of AAPL today, I couldn't resist.
In 20 years I hope it was worth it. Before then I won't care one way or another.
You can all do this experiment. Take a nice new Macbook Air box, an iPad box, or iPhone box. Buy it from an Apple fanboy or find it in the trash, etc.
Then, take your Macbook Air box, and stuff it with a Gateway. Take the iPad box and put in a Pantech tablet. Take the iPhone box and put in the Huawei phone from Metropcs.
Try giving these to your girlfriend/wife/mistress/other. Watch the delight and surprise when she sees you played this funny practical joke on her.
Report your results back to us.
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Clambo,
Fox News loves hyperboles, so do you. I was talking about speed and you are trying to change the subject. At least Vicente said he does not care about speed and agrees that Apple does not provide the fastest products. For me, speed is one of the more important factors. I hardy every use my iPad for web browsing because I get frustrated on how slow it is in comparison to my laptop. I do use my iPad for checking email, and a couple of other apps. Also, I specified a phone that I used which was a top of the line Android phone when I bought it, not some cheaper competitor.
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The criterion of a person buying an Apple product might be how fast it loads a web page, but I doubt it.
Since you say your particular laptop downloads pages or your phone downloads pages faster it must be true, but I doubt the consumer notices.
One guy on youtube was comparing the samsung whatever v iphone and one or two "races" the iPhone won.
I only used the iPad once but it was the iPad 1, and I can't remember the experience.
I hope they improve the iPad so it's fast enough for the customer. If they think it's too slow, I bet they're working on this problem now.
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clambo,
My geek friend bought a Samsung Android, reason is it is more advanced and have more features than iPhone. His wife and three children bought iPhone because it is easy to use and their friends have iPhones.
I bought iPhone because I'm an AAPL investor. My wife and kids bought iPhones for the same reasons as my friend's wife and children.
Btw, my geek friend didn't own any AAPL because he felt that it is too expensive like since 2002 when it is trading for less than $20.
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I bought my Android because I wanted the *cheapest plan* on earth, and so I am using an LG Optimus V. I think it's nice.
I met a girl at the beach a while ago who had a cool Samsung with a big screen and it was a really nice phone.
My feeling is that some Androids are awesome gadgets, yet I also know most people aren't into the fun geek factor.
I invest the money I am not paying to Verizon or ATT in more AAPL shares and shares of mutual funds. I'd love to stop buying AAPL but in my mind every buy I make I am prepaying some other whim or desire I will have in 20 years. Boat, pickup truck, trip, etc.
With my luck my shares will split, go up to $1000 and I'll be murdered by an angry girl or struck by lightning in the parking lot of the strip club on my 100th birthday.
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clambo says
Could my kids be the beneficiaries of your life insurance policy or will?
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clambo says
Man you really have some kind of issue with women.
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Apple May Pay Billions To Samsung For New iPad
http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2012/03/15/apple-may-pay-billions-to-samsung-for-new-ipad/
Lost in the litigation is the fact that Apple and Samsung are “frenemies.” Apple has long been dependent on Samsung for lots of technology. The new iPad is no exception.
iSuppli reports that Samsung is the sole supplier of screens for the new iPad. The new iPad is the first tablet with super high resolution of 2048 by 1536 pixels. According to iSuppli, LG and Sharp could not meet Apple’s requirements...In any case, if Apple sells 50 million iPads and Samsung ends up supplying screens for only 25 million, it is still quite lucrative for Samsung...Further, it is widely believed that Samsung is the foundry for the new quad core Apple A5X processor in the new iPad.
Apple Paid Samsung $5.7 Billion For Parts Last Year And Is Now Suing Them
http://pulse2.com/2011/04/19/apple-paid-samsung-5-7-billion-for-parts-last-year-and-is-now-suing-them/
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) spent close to $5.7 billion for parts manufactured by Samsung Electronics last year.
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Samsung sold more smartphones than Apple in Q1? If not vy Q2 it will be pretty clear, especially when Galaxy III comes out. The 4S is an inferior product. Google took away their most important competitive edge.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericsavitz/2012/04/20/samsung-outsold-apple-in-smartphones-in-q1-analyst-says/?partner=yahootix
Seen it around the office, Young people who bought Blackberry converted to Apple are now converting to Galaxy II Rocket./ Razr Apple desparately needs the Iphone 5.
Samsung is one hell of a consumer product company. Plasma/LED, phone/pads, Computers/electronic devices, household appliances. They are all good products. Notwithstanding they are the biggest semi in memory, displays, chips, prodcessors, etc and/or leader in all their business. They are like Sony of the 1990 but even more vertically intergrated with patent portfolio as thick as the bible.
It's hard to keep a competitive edge in this industry as brand loyalty does not last that long, Sony and RIMM is just a fair warning that Apple may not stay on top forever.
Google overtakes them in OS
Samsumg overtakes them in design, key patents and cost.
Apple is not a short, but it is not a buy either. Chances are if you are in some S&P type index fund, 10% of it is Apple anyway.
Ipad3 sell through was not that impressive after the first week. It will be an interesting conference call as I can see Apple may have to be conservative in Q2.
Put options?
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SFace says
You forgot to mention Harddrives and SSD storage...
And we just gave it away as if it wasnt any important... but hey we still have facebook and google to cheer about.. but what does that matter anyway ?
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sface says
You own GOOG and Samsung stocks?
Disclosure: Long AAPL since 2003.
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No, If you just wake up from a coma and you see the rocket and 4S for the first time, who wins the taste test?
I just see some of their untouchable moat is starting to erode and those 50% year over year and margins will come down as comps will get that much tougher and competition more brutal. It use to be Apple outsell all smartphones in the world, but 2012, they may not outsell Samsung alone. Google now owns Moto so within a couple year, the landscape may be entirely different.
Apple is the most valuable company in the world outside of Saudi Aramco, so no doubt it is amazing, not $1000 amazing. The S&P isbascially 10% apple so most have a material stake in Apple already without direct ownership.
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My comment about being murdered by a female is just a fantasy of the insanely jealous girlfriend theme taken to the extreme. I should go back and edit it to be "jealous girlfriend with a reasonable grudge".
I am therefore just fantasizing I am so desireable and rich because my AAPL went way up. It's all a wish not a real expectation.
The reason Apple is going to continue to squash everything else for a while is that the whole Apple "ecosystem" is getting more consolidated and unified, not less.
I have an Android phone, use Dropbox, have a mac laptop and mac mini desktop, and have Roku for my TV.
People who have the iPhone may tend to buy the iPad and later macbook air and later AppleTV as they all integrate and reinforce each other with iCloud and iTunes and the Apple TV comes out.
I like the gadgets Samsung makes, they are a cool company. Google is cool too.
I think all of these will have success, but nothing is going to stop Apple from making a ton of money.
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SFace says
Interesting comparison, thanks.
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clambo says
&feature=related
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clambo says
Perhaps you should consider why you have jealous girlfriends on the brain. It's a disturbing theme we've seen before.
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Vicente says
Thats such bullshit! Women are extremly Obsessive, Possessive, and Jealous when it comes to men. Its not a guy thing.. its a womens problem.
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SFace says
does this mean that if Apple goes down by half, my SPDR will lose 5% of its value? In that case maybe a dow-30 index is less risky?
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The jealous girlfriend theme is just the wish that a young impulsive woman would want me so much she'd be jealous. It's like I wish I were rich, I wish I were so cool and rich they can't resist my stare.
I do not aspire to be like most older men who are *invisible* to most hot women here and there.
I want to step out of my McLaren as I saunder down to my Bertram to go out fishing. The chicks have to help carry the cooler and my diving equipment.
I wanna boat like Tom Vu in those bad ads.
Seriously though, I think it's the sincerest form of love for a woman to express jealousy. I've experienced it a few times. Wow.
Of course it burns out and what is left is anger that you are the jerk who made her feel jealous, it's your fault.
BACAH has a point. I'm guessing that AAPL would not move so much as to affect the index much, but I don't know. I think AAPL wlll have a little rise after Tuesday when they say how many iPhones Verizon sold.
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B.A.C.A.H. says
Could be.. as you recall, a few tech stock back in 1997-2000 carried the Nasdq to bubble levels. Since Apple has a 15% impact alone, it may have an impact on others which may create a bigger impact. When the Computer Box makers sneeze, chips and harddrive makers catch a cold.... true then true today.
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B.A.C.A.H. says
Just wait until Facebook IPO.
The index fund was good in theory.
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clambo says
So you DESIRE an immature and inappropriate stalker.
Yet you're afraid of it.
Got it.
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I'm not actually afraid of being stabbed to death by a jealous female, it's a fantasy.
I'm actually very pleased when a woman acts jealous, i.e. dresses a little bit sexier, acts more affectionate, cooks something, does more to keep me focused on her.
If not the McLaren and Bertram might help at least keep someone in my company long enough. Fingers crossed.