I've been patient... I didn't chase
Now when will I be rewarded in my quest to buy Silver Eagles under $26 and not pay the obscene premiums ?
Thanks
Silver and their premiums on the physical ......and other musings
By Rightswingtrader Follow Wed, 14 Dec 2011, 1:06pm 9,112 views 64 comments
Watch (0) Share
Quote
Permalink Like Dislike « First « Previous Viewing Comments 25-64 of 64 Last » See most liked comments
|
Rightswingtrader is moderator of this thread. |
Follow
Befriend (31)
34 threads
2,552 comments
San Jose, CA
Premium
iwog says
As much as I think bonds have a good shot of dropping up to another 20% in yields, it's so hard to put the money there because yields are so low right now.
I guess I'm looking for a way to hedge against a potential civil unrest for a couple of months if the dollar loses its value significantly over a short period of time. Kind of like high inflation or hyperinflation scenario. Cash is good in a deflationary period. Thx.
Follow
Befriend (48)
274 threads
12,575 comments
47 male
Lafayette, CA
Premium
Like I said, I still own gold and silver in case things really blow up so there's nothing wrong with putting some aside. I used to buy from apmex.
Follow
Befriend (31)
34 threads
2,552 comments
San Jose, CA
Premium
StillLooking says
StillLooking, reread what you wrote above. It means two things. Either RE is undervalued at this time, or gold is over-valued at this time. Look at the home price/gold ratio, we are at historical low now. If you believe in charting or technical analysts mumbo jumbo, the home price/gold ratio is showing a double bottom. Basically, either RE will go up in value from here, or gold will tank from here.
I'm just looking for a way to weather the storm should our currency gets devalued significantly over a short period of time. RE passed the test of time over and over again throughout history so it's a nice hedge against inflation or hyperinflation. If we muddle along the bottom here, my RE holdings will do great. If we go into this slow downhill grinding in RE prices, interest rate will keep on dropping, which means refinance and increases yield or ROI.
Maybe I'm just over analyzing the situation, but that's why people are buying insurance. Insurance is mostly for that big one time unexpected event. :)
Follow
Befriend (31)
34 threads
2,552 comments
San Jose, CA
Premium
iwog says
How much of your networth is in physical precious metals if you don't mind I'm asking. :)
Follow
Befriend (13)
787 threads
1,542 comments
E-man says
Have you thought about a scenario where you could have a period of severe deflation (credit contraction) followed by the response (massive money printing) leading to a loss of confidence?
I'm just saying that the economy is much more non-linear and it's not a high inflation vs. deflation path.
Follow
Befriend (31)
34 threads
2,552 comments
San Jose, CA
Premium
uomo_senza_nome says
Actually, that's the scenario I want to prepare for. History showed that it's deflation than hyperinflation. My RE will do fantastic in a hyperinflation period. However, I want to be well prepared for the short-term severe contraction period, which may lead to civil unrest, so I can prosper later.
The severe contraction period reminds me of late 2008, but our government took massive preventive measure so the downturn was relatively brief if you will. Our government has the power to do so much that the scenario I'm thinking of will only happen briefly. Also, it seems like the world catches a cold when we sneeze so we also have that leverage that others don't have. I guess carry on with the money printing. :)
Follow
Befriend (13)
787 threads
1,542 comments
E-man says
So I think this where what % of savings you put into gold *really* matters. Because if we have a credit contraction, gold is actually going to seriously crash (leverage being destroyed) and could even go as low as $200 an ounce. One should be prepared to weather through this contraction period with their gold intact (meaning you shouldn't have to sell your insurance because your house is burning).
If it is followed by massive money printing, the insurance you have should protect you through that scenario (only if you can hold on to it).
E-man says
yes, but a second time around -- there's less appetite for more bank bailouts. So we could have more banks fail.
E-man says
I think so too. but I do think the power stems from the fact that world's savings is US debt. I think the world savings medium landscape is changing. So this power may not be as strong as it once was.
E-man says
That's true though. It is in the world's best interests to see the US get its act together (fiscally). The extreme views in US politics makes it that much less likely that we will, before another major crisis.
Follow
Befriend (48)
274 threads
12,575 comments
47 male
Lafayette, CA
Premium
E-man says
It used to be 50% but now it's down to 10%.
Follow
Befriend (31)
34 threads
2,552 comments
San Jose, CA
Premium
Thanks @iwog and @uomo_senza_nome,
10% in gold is exactly the number I have in mind as part of the hedge. I'm just analyzing all possible scenario right now.
I'm rereading what happened during the Great Depression so I know cash is king in this event. I guess my question would be, can we go into hyperinflation because everyone in the world is dumping the dollar. I know highly unlikely, but I'm analyzing anyways. Can this happen without us going into a credit contraction? Real Estate would do fantastic, gold would do fantastic, but cash is doing the opposite. Under this hyperinflation environment without credit contraction, I think bond would go into the toilet too. So................
I guess I've been reading too much and thinking too much. It's time to snap out of it. :)
Follow
Befriend (13)
787 threads
1,542 comments
E-man says
There are good reasons, why this is unlikely to be the catalyst. By that I mean, the dumping of bonds may not be the cause.
Here's a recent news link regarding this:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-11/china-s-u-s-debt-holdings-aren-t-threat-pentagon-says.html
E-man says
Does the credit contraction ever stop? :) by which I mean debt levels are already too high and left on their own, debt defaults would be seriously deflationary. The way I see it -- The Fed is acting like a giant who's trying to slow this debt mountain falling down. It can't prevent it from falling down, but it can reduce the severity of it.
So I think credit contraction is ongoing and will continue for the foreseeable future.
E-man says
Yes, the scenario you are describing is similar to Weimar Germany and the effects will be similar. But I don't think US is Weimar, which is why my guess is it is less likely.
E-man says
:)
Follow
Befriend (31)
34 threads
2,552 comments
San Jose, CA
Premium
Iwog, uomo & Troy,
So what's the most likely scenario that will happen to our economy and the U.S. dollar in the next 10 years? What's your best guess?
Follow
Befriend (48)
274 threads
12,575 comments
47 male
Lafayette, CA
Premium
Great Depression Part II combined with new speculative bubbles and crashes.
There are more rich people than ever before and they hold all the cash. They will move money from one fad investment to another seeking some kind of return as bond yields continue to trend to 0%. Real Estate might hit another bubble with new highs.
"I'd Buy Up 'A Couple Hundred Thousand' Single-Family Homes If I Could"
~ Warren Buffett
No salvation until the tax code gets fixed and consumers start to see their share of wealth increase again.
Follow
Befriend (31)
34 threads
2,552 comments
San Jose, CA
Premium
iwog says
Yeah, I remember Buffett said this around last summer.
iwog says
I'm afraid this might be the case. Based on previous RE cycles, RE doesn't re-inflate like what we have seen recently in the lower end housing market compared to the past.
You could argue that we over-shot to the downside and we're just getting back to equilibrium prices on the lower-end, which provides a good support for the mid-end market.
Follow
Befriend
27 threads
233 comments
Skokie, IL
"Real estate is in a dreadful bear market in terms of gold. If you want to see a real bear chart look at real estate in terms of gold.
StillLooking, reread what you wrote above. It means two things. Either RE is undervalued at this time, or gold is over-valued at this time. Look at the home price/gold ratio, we are at historical low now. If you believe in charting or technical analysts mumbo jumbo, the home price/gold ratio is showing a double bottom. Basically, either RE will go up in value from here, or gold will tank from here."
I am not so sure we are at a historical low. 100 ounce of gold is 160-170 Thousand dollars. In 1900 this would've been $2000. $2000 in gold had a lot of buying power in 1900.
And we have gold rising with all sorts of other commodiies. I see rampaging inflation. At some point the powers that be will be forced to act. They will have to raise interest rates stop the bond buying and sell the bonds they have.
We can't have deflation with present policy. And when they act to stop inflation, housing prices will drop first.
Follow
Befriend (31)
34 threads
2,552 comments
San Jose, CA
Premium
StillLooking,
To put things in perspective. Is gold cheap or is housing cheap now? Of course, we can argue this time is different. Time will tell. I haven't a clue on this.
Follow
Befriend
27 threads
233 comments
Skokie, IL
Good chart. I don't know about its accuracy though. How did they come by the 1900 data?
I bet a million dollars could have bought a good chunk of Chicago in 1900. Today, not so much.
And Iwog, how are those silver calls you wrote doing for you?
Follow
Befriend
2 threads
29 comments
Hinsdale, IL
Actually a million bucks can still buy u a decent chunk of Chicago . Literally city blocks if u don't mind the bullets :)
Follow
Befriend (31)
34 threads
2,552 comments
San Jose, CA
Premium
StillLooking says
Any Case History for this scenario, or is it just your educated guess?
StillLooking says
Probably got stopped out and lost some money.
Follow
Befriend
27 threads
233 comments
Skokie, IL
E-man says
Housing is highly leveraged , so it should drop first and fastest when the FED tightens.
Follow
Befriend (2)
3 threads
552 comments
Madison, WI
Borrowing is what's cheap right now, and inflation is fed policy, as a mere pheasant I have little skin in this game. Inflation is not bad in the U.S. due to the dollar peg, but it's a problem elsewhere.
Follow
Befriend (48)
274 threads
12,575 comments
47 male
Lafayette, CA
Premium
E-man says
Good lord no. Silver is only up about 50 cents since I wrote them and everyone was betting on this QE3 spike.
NOW watch what happens.
Follow
Befriend (13)
787 threads
1,542 comments
iwog says
I think that's very worrying. clearly shows gold is a monetary asset par excellence whereas silver is not.
Follow
Befriend
2 threads
29 comments
Hinsdale, IL
Thanks for the replies gents. I hope this thread stays active along with Silver
Follow
Befriend (7)
30 threads
1,216 comments
31 male
Premium
iwog says
consumers start to see their share or wealth increase again? What the hell does that even mean? If there was such a way for a government to use taxes in such a fashion that net consumers are 'getting their share of wealth increase', is it even desirable?
Follow
Befriend (13)
787 threads
1,542 comments
errc says
Do you know the difference between the paycheck economy and the rentier economy?
Follow
Befriend (48)
274 threads
12,575 comments
47 male
Lafayette, CA
Premium
errc says
Every worker in a successful company creates far more wealth for the company than he's paid in wages.
The success or failure of an economy depends on how much of that wealth the worker gets to keep.
A CEO doesn't create anything. He simply picks which direction the ship is going in, and takes money from those who create it. It doesn't even matter if he's successful or a total bankrupt failure, he's still going to take wealth from the workers and will personally create nothing.
Follow
Befriend (7)
30 threads
1,216 comments
31 male
Premium
@49, yes
@50, i guess i just disagree with your use of the term "consumer"
Follow
Befriend (48)
274 threads
12,575 comments
47 male
Lafayette, CA
Premium
errc says
A consumer spends most of his money on consumables and creates jobs. 100 consumers with $1 million to spend creates a lot of demand and therefore can keep employment high.
1 Romney with $1 million creates almost no demand and does not keep people working. Thus people in Romney's class aren't really consumers relative to the amount of money they hold while people living paycheck to paycheck are almost total consumers.
Follow
Befriend (7)
30 threads
1,216 comments
31 male
Premium
well, if you're going to label people as consumers, then the flip side would be producers. When i read your post about consumers seeing their share of wealth increase, it doesn't add up to me.
consuming resources/stuff does not make one more wealthy. maybe it depends on what your definition of wealth is
Wealth - all material things produced by human labor, having exchange value
which reminds me, about a different instance where we seem to have different definitions for economic terms. You said that you are a Capitalist, and that you believe that land is Capital, but that doesn't jive with some of my understandings of economic terms.
Capital - Is wealth, used in the production of more wealth
Land - would be all the material universe outside of man and his products. which is different then capital
So i'm still not certain i agree that the "solution" to our "problem" is for 'consumers' to see their fair share of wealth increases via changes in the tax code. Net consumers by definition should be less wealthy as they consume resources, unless they are producing at a rate equal to or greater then their consumption, no? what am i missing here,,,,,,,,,
Follow
Befriend (13)
787 threads
1,542 comments
errc says
I agree.
The problem though is the real world is far from Georgism.
what we need is to reduce the debt levels in an orderly fashion and therefore we need wage and job growth.
Follow
Befriend (48)
274 threads
12,575 comments
47 male
Lafayette, CA
Premium
errc says
You're making it far too complicated.
The answer is to raise the wages of the real producers so they can also be more effective consumers.
Capitalists, as Marx was correct in pointing out, are leeches to the working class. They produce nothing and add little value. Where Marx was wrong is that capitalists and rich people are very necessary for the function of an economy. They drive purpose and innovation, but to call these people producers is a bald faced lie.
All workers produce at a rate that exceeds their consumption, otherwise no one would hire them. It all comes down to the distribution of wealth. The government's job is to make sure there's an equilibrium. The Republicans job is to tear down that equilibrium and make sure enough wealth flows to the top that workers become desperate enough to work for almost nothing.
Follow
Befriend (13)
52 threads
2,639 comments
Premium
Hold on folks. Capitalists have been trying very hard since WW2 to equate themselves with Entrepreneurs. The two are usually NOT the same.
For example, Woz and Jobs were two middle class kids with great ideas but little money; they had to convince capitalists to invest.
The Walton Family doesn't have many ideas, but they have a lot of money.
We need entrepreneurs, but as to who is the capitalist is very open; any institution or person can put up investment capital. It doesn't have to be individual wealthy people.
Just a quick reminder: Capitalists != Entrepreneurs. Sometimes they do, but not necessarily or even usually.
Follow
Befriend (28)
149 threads
1,398 comments
@thunderlips11
>Hold on folks. Capitalists have been trying very hard since WW2 to equate themselves with Entrepreneurs. The two are usually NOT the same.
:
:
:
>The Walton Family doesn't have many ideas, but they have a lot of money.
Unfortunately, most Americans believe that they are one and the same.
Follow
Befriend
2 threads
29 comments
Hinsdale, IL
Iwog why did u delete ur last post here ?
Silver had a look above $35 today
Follow
Befriend (48)
274 threads
12,575 comments
47 male
Lafayette, CA
Premium
Because it looked stupid. I just liked the crash yesterday.
Don't worry, if I take a loss on my options I'll post it here. Right now they aren't even in the money.
Follow
Befriend
2 threads
29 comments
Hinsdale, IL
Haaa Ok
Oil had a mini flash dump yesterday also...good times
Follow
Befriend (3)
2 threads
236 comments
Mountain View, CA
iwog says
As wrong as you are about housing, you're dead on here, quackey.
Follow
Befriend (28)
149 threads
1,398 comments
>Don't worry, if I take a loss on my options I'll post it here. Right now they aren't even in the money.
At least Iwog posts all of his- the bad with the good. Some people tend to hide their losses and brag about only their gains.
Follow
Befriend (48)
274 threads
12,575 comments
47 male
Lafayette, CA
Premium
Facebooksux says
I see. So how am I wrong?
Follow
Befriend
2 threads
29 comments
Hinsdale, IL
American in Japan says
I agree ... Ever visited Stock Twits or Twitter ? Yikes
I'm not interested in any individuals time stamped positions here but I do like charts on Silver and opinions about future price movements.